Singapore and New Zealand have much the same population – a bit over five million people. They are both affluent economies – Singapore is more affluent than New Zealand although there are reasons to believe the data exaggerates the differences. Because of their resource base and location they have rather different economic structures. Yet the…
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A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, except that it showed weakening…
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While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates. Last week’s announcement of a 0.9 percent increase in volume GDP for the June quarter had the commentariat backing down from their confident predictions…
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What is PREFU 2023 really telling us? Despite the headlines, things are not much worse than at the time of the 2023 budget, but fiscal management is always difficult. The Treasury is required by law to publish a Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) a few weeks before a general election, just as it is…
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Public policy frequently suffers because we don’t look at alternatives. Thus far the Labour Party’s only ‘new’ election (economic) policy is to remove GST from fruit and vegetables. Even the accompanying promise of adjusting Working for Families is much in line with what it has being doing in the last six years. It is also…
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Evergrande and Country Garden – two giant Chinese property development companies – are a portent of the turbulence before us. The recent financial failures of two ginormous Chinese property companies, Evergrande and Country Garden, at various times ranked the second largest and sixth largest in China have implications for the New Zealand economy. The Evergrande…
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I was asked by a Spanish journalist the following two questions (particular with attention to a historical perspective): How likely do you see (if at all) a transition from an economy based on primary products towards an economy where digital services exports might play an important part? I would also like to ask about the…
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Do I detect increasing uncertainty as to the effectiveness of monetary policy to deal with inflation? It may be helpful for an understanding what is going, to recount the conventional wisdom before ‘monetarism’; that term was coined in 1968 so I was there before it and recall some of the debate leading up to it….
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This is an exploratory study and may be of little value. By way of background, I observed a Kings Fund study which ranked the British health system with a group of other affluent OECD countries. I thought it would be interesting to do this for New Zealand. I got deviated when I found an…
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Commentary: Aotearoa New Zealand Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023) Abstract This paper aims to promote discussion on the complex issue of Tāone Hapū (Māori Gangs), recognising the substantial literature which already exists but adding two further directions which tend to be downplayed: – while it is accepted that the urban Māori…
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Review in ‘Newsroom’ 9 May, 2023 In 1972, The New Zealand Journal of History published the article “Te Tiriti o Waitangi: Texts and Translations” by Ruth Ross (1920-1982). Its impact continues 50 years later, and is likely to remain significant in another 50 years. It’s one of the most influential pieces of work by a…
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Circulated 13 April 2023 There is a fetish for setting performance targets in, among other places, the education and health system. This note draws on economists’ experiences to caution about their use, and illustrates how this has mattered in the health system. The foundation principle is Gilling’s Law which states ‘how the game is scored…
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Working Paper for New Zealand Productivity Commission Introduction Unexpected shocks to the New Zealand economy are endemic. The numerous small ones have been dealt with by the local initiatives inherent in the market economy and by common sense. However, there are a few big shocks where national action has been necessary. Sometimes those actions have…
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Presentation to U3A Southland series on Housing in NZ, via ZOOM, 17 February, 2023. Throughout my life as a professional economist, I have been challenged by the question of whether goods and services should be provided privately or publicly. I recall in the 1960s, when there were strong calls for nationalisation of many things, the…
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Headlines Born March 1943 in Christchurch to Harry and Thelma Easton. Eldest of three. Keith (1944-2015), Jean (1950-) Married Jenny in 1966. We went our separate ways from 1996. Anita (1971-); Tama (1974-) Education 1947: Selwyn St Kindergarten 1948-1953: Somerfield Primary School 1954-5: Christchurch South Intermediate 1956-1960: Christchurch Boy’s High School 1961-63: University of Canterbury…
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Books The Future of New Zealand Medicine: A Progressive View (Peryer, 1974) 150pp – joint editor, with D.W. BEAVEN, and contributor. Social Policy and the Welfare State in New Zealand (Allen & Unwin, 1980) 182pp. (Japanese Edition, 1987) Pragmatism and Progress: Social Security in the Seventies (University of Canterbury, 1981) 128pp. Economics for New Zealand…
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Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society (1967-) Honorary Research Fellow, Research Project on Planning, Victoria University of Wellington: 1986-2000 Downing Professorial Fellow in Social Economics at the Department of Economics at the University of Melbourne: 1987 Social Science Research Fund Committee Hodge Fellow at Massey University: 1989- Associate, Institute of Executive Development, Massey University: 1993-2000…
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Brian Easton (Journalist) Interviews Brian Easton (Economist) Part I is IN OPEN SEAS: PART I: On the Seashore: (1943-1970); Part II is IN OPEN SEAS: Part II: Launched (1970-1986). Part II and Part III were going to be published as a companion pieces in Asymmetric Information but there have been no issues since August 2021 Why did…
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Brian Easton (Journalist) Interviews Brian Easton (Economist) Part I is IN OPEN SEAS: PART I: On the Seashore: (1943-1970) This was going to be published as a companion piece in Asymmetric Information but there have been no issues since August 2021 From Sussex University to Canterbury University? It was very different economics department in 1970…
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Thursday 24 November The Commission’s report on the seminar is here. It includes the my overheads which accompanied the presentation. Introduction I have been commissioned to prepare a report for the New Zealand Productivity Commission’s inquiry into economic resilience. The purpose of the report is threefold: 1. to describe how New Zealand has attempted to…
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