The more informed an economist is, the more they keep their head down during elections. Elections are not a time to talk about economics in a serious way. Sure, politicians talk about the economy and what they will do to it, with promises soon forgotten when they take power. Elections are timely reminders of how…
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She may have progressed our understanding of women in the economy but that has not resolved all the issues. A woman who was once chief executive of New Zealand’s biggest company said ‘It is true that a large percentage of the [women’s pay] gap is unexplained and that’s where the issue comes about; could it…
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Coalition government reflects a nation’s diversity. Electoral arrangements show it. Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate…
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Singapore and New Zealand have much the same population – a bit over five million people. They are both affluent economies – Singapore is more affluent than New Zealand although there are reasons to believe the data exaggerates the differences. Because of their resource base and location they have rather different economic structures. Yet the…
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A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, except that it showed weakening…
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While the economy is not doing too badly in output terms, external circumstances are not favourable, and there is probably a sizeable group of households struggling because of rising interest rates. Last week’s announcement of a 0.9 percent increase in volume GDP for the June quarter had the commentariat backing down from their confident predictions…
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What is PREFU 2023 really telling us? Despite the headlines, things are not much worse than at the time of the 2023 budget, but fiscal management is always difficult. The Treasury is required by law to publish a Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) a few weeks before a general election, just as it is…
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Public policy frequently suffers because we don’t look at alternatives. Thus far the Labour Party’s only ‘new’ election (economic) policy is to remove GST from fruit and vegetables. Even the accompanying promise of adjusting Working for Families is much in line with what it has being doing in the last six years. It is also…
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Evergrande and Country Garden – two giant Chinese property development companies – are a portent of the turbulence before us. The recent financial failures of two ginormous Chinese property companies, Evergrande and Country Garden, at various times ranked the second largest and sixth largest in China have implications for the New Zealand economy. The Evergrande…
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Banning mobile phones in schools points to wider issues. I don’t have enough information to evaluate National’s election proposal to ban mobile phones in schools, but something has to be said about how they plan to implement it. Compulsion from the top is characteristic of much New Zealand policy reflecting our centralist approach to government….
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The recent reduction in the US credit rating signals that market lenders are not happy with the US fiscal arrangements. New Zealand’s lower rating is a warning that we could do better too. Fitch recently lowered its long-term credit ratings rating of US government debt from the top grade of AAA to AA+. Financial markets…
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It is the professionalism – competence and integrity – of the doctors, nurses and technicians who provide the care which obscures the managerial failure. The column-blog, Otaihanga Second Opinion is compulsory reading for anyone interested in the health sector. It is written by Ian Powell, who was Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical…
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It is too easy to react to a problem rather than to tackle it thoughtfully. It’s Friday night. You plan to have a couple of drinks with friends. Saturday morning you can’t remember how many you had – was it seven? – but you wish you hadn’t. What you are showing in economic terms is…
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I was asked by a Spanish journalist the following two questions (particular with attention to a historical perspective): How likely do you see (if at all) a transition from an economy based on primary products towards an economy where digital services exports might play an important part? I would also like to ask about the…
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The Chatham Islands may offer insights on to how to govern New Zealand better. It is said that our first minister of regional development – in the early 1970s – claimed that he wanted all our regions to have above average incomes. Duh! You would expect that there would be some variation in regional incomes….
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Do I detect increasing uncertainty as to the effectiveness of monetary policy to deal with inflation? It may be helpful for an understanding what is going, to recount the conventional wisdom before ‘monetarism’; that term was coined in 1968 so I was there before it and recall some of the debate leading up to it….
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This is an exploratory study and may be of little value. By way of background, I observed a Kings Fund study which ranked the British health system with a group of other affluent OECD countries. I thought it would be interesting to do this for New Zealand. I got deviated when I found an…
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A canter through some of the issues facing tax policies. The Treasury experienced vigorous internal debates before Rogernomics. One was over the purpose of taxes. Eventually, a senior economist, notorious for his common sense, settled it. There it is in the 1984 Economic Management: ‘The purpose of of any tax system is to raise revenue.’…
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Its principles may involve outcomes which are not in the public interest. The ACT party election manifesto will propose to introduce a Regulatory Standards Act to set a higher bar for new regulation, and test regulations against the key principles of the Regulatory Standards Act. To make my position clear I have had doubts, going…
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Commentary: Aotearoa New Zealand Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023) Abstract This paper aims to promote discussion on the complex issue of Tāone Hapū (Māori Gangs), recognising the substantial literature which already exists but adding two further directions which tend to be downplayed: – while it is accepted that the urban Māori…
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