Do I detect increasing uncertainty as to the effectiveness of monetary policy to deal with inflation? It may be helpful for an understanding what is going, to recount the conventional wisdom before ‘monetarism’; that term was coined in 1968 so I was there before it and recall some of the debate leading up to it….
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Circulated 13 April 2023 There is a fetish for setting performance targets in, among other places, the education and health system. This note draws on economists’ experiences to caution about their use, and illustrates how this has mattered in the health system. The foundation principle is Gilling’s Law which states ‘how the game is scored…
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Working Paper for New Zealand Productivity Commission Introduction Unexpected shocks to the New Zealand economy are endemic. The numerous small ones have been dealt with by the local initiatives inherent in the market economy and by common sense. However, there are a few big shocks where national action has been necessary. Sometimes those actions have…
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Jasfest, 7 December 2021 I apologise for not presenting this short tribute to Jas. I have had a tumour removed from my larynx. The prognosis is good, but it will take some time for my voice to recover sufficiently to be able to make presentations. I want to talk about Jas as a macroeconomist, but…
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Introduction: The focus of this paper is on macroeconomic management and not on the entirety of economic policy. There are many issues which macroeconomic interventions cannot address. To use macroeconomic instruments, rather than the relevant targeted instrument, will blunt the effectiveness of macropolicy interventions. Reflecting, this paper is really a critique of the current primary…
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The Treasury forecasts suggest the economy is doing better than expected after the Covid Shock. John Kenneth Galbraith was wont to say that economic forecasting was designed to make astrology look good. Unfair, but it raises the question of the purpose of economic forecasts. Certainly the public may treat them as horoscopes which is usually…
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I was writing almost weekly about the Covid Crisis during its peak of between March and June 2020. Not that I had any technical expertise in the area (in the following please allow for that) but its impact on economics areas where I had some expertise was great. Here is a list of the Pundit…
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I prepared this note on the contribution of Joseph Stiglitz of the same title to an important symposium in Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume 34, Numbers 1–2, 2018 (pp. 70–106). It is for economists. A shorter version is published in the AUT Briefing Papers series. Stiglitz’s text is in italics: I believe…
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This paper on public debt strategy is published as an AUT Briefing paper. It is available here.
Paper to the Fabian Society, 12 October, 2016 While we continue to chew over the carcass of the Fourth Labour Government – the Lange-Douglas one – we pay little attention to the subsequent Fifth Labour Government. Yet the Clark-Cullen one is greatly shaping the current Labour Opposition and the current National Government. It will,…
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There is a lot of chatter about the government’s budget deficit but, politics aside, why does it matter? Rob Muldoon famously remarked that the typical New Zealander would not know a budget deficit if he or she tripped over it in the street. Knowing a little bit about it I have puzzled as to how…
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Why does the Minister of Finance say this is is hardest budget ever? The economy may be doing moderately well, but it is by no means performing outstandingly. In 1993 the New Zealand economy began to show signs of an upswing after the seven years of Rogernomics Stagnation. In a public comment I remarked that…
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Sharp movements in exchange rates often reflect sophisticated speculation. Is there much we can do about it? While the near parity of the Australian and New Zealand dollars got a lot of breathless attention recently, there was little analysis of why it was happening. Explaining the exchange rate depends upon the time horizon. In the…
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One of the biggest issues missed during the election campaign was the sustainability of National’s economic, environmental and even social policies. So what do you do if the government’s not thinking long-term? Pundit: 29 September, 2014. Keywords: Environment & Resources; Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; Social Policy; Behavioural economics is…
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A softening of the housing market, falling dairy prices and potential weakening of the Chinese economy do not bode well for New Zealand Pundit: 22 September, 2014 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; There were knowing smiles among economists when earlier this year John Key set the election date a couple of months early….
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If New Zealand is heading for a housing market implosion, watch what you borrow. Listener: 24 June, 2014. Keywords: Business & Finance; Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation; When commentator Jesse Colombo in business journal Forbes said New Zealand had a housing and credit bubble, Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce shot the…
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Wellington branch, NZ Shareholders Association, 10 June 2014 Keywords: Business & Finance; Macroeconomics & Money; My topic tonight is New Zealand as a bubble economy. But I need to start with a listener warning. I am an economist, not a financial adviser – registered or unregistered. Economic theory tells us something about the context of…
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It’s election year – should the government surplus be used to a) cut taxes, b) help the poor or c) repay debt? Listener: 5 June, 2014 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Just before the Budget there seemed to be a public disagreement on economic policy between Prime Minister John Key and Finance Minister…
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Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; In the Saturday 17 May 2014 issue of “The Dominion Post Weekend” Vernon small wrote an article. “English emerges smiling from global meltdown: Finance minister one of a string of highly competent money men, New Zealand has been ‘lucky to have’.” In it he quoted me….
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If minority interests are to be met, how are they to be funded? Listener: 15 May, 2014 Keywords: Literature and Culture; Macroeconomics & Money; Except for talkback, one thinks of radio as an audience-passive medium. Radio New Zealand (RNZ) was reminded that this is not necessarily the case at an April meeting…
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