Category Archives: Macroeconomics & Money

UNFINISHED BUSINESS

Paper to the Fabian Society, 12 October, 2016   While we continue to chew over the carcass of the Fourth Labour Government – the Lange-Douglas one – we pay little attention to the subsequent Fifth Labour Government. Yet the Clark-Cullen one is greatly shaping the current Labour Opposition and the current National Government. It will,…
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HOW SUSTAINABLE IS NEW ZEALAND?

One of the biggest issues missed during the election campaign was the sustainability of National’s economic, environmental and even social policies. So what do you do if the government’s not thinking long-term?   Pundit: 29 September, 2014.   Keywords: Environment & Resources;  Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; Social Policy;   Behavioural economics is…
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THE TRUTH ABOUT OUR ‘ROCKSTAR ECONOMY’

A softening of the housing market, falling dairy prices and potential weakening of the Chinese economy do not bode well for New Zealand   Pundit: 22 September, 2014   Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;   There were knowing smiles among economists when earlier this year John Key set the election date a couple of months early….
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BLOWING BUBBLES

If New Zealand is heading for a housing market implosion, watch what you borrow.   Listener: 24 June, 2014.   Keywords: Business & Finance; Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation;   When commentator Jesse Colombo in business journal Forbes said New Zealand had a housing and credit bubble, Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce shot the…
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IS NEW ZEALAND A BUBBLE ECONOMY?

Wellington branch, NZ Shareholders Association, 10 June 2014 Keywords: Business & Finance; Macroeconomics & Money; My topic tonight is New Zealand as a bubble economy. But I need to start with a listener warning. I am an economist, not a financial adviser – registered or unregistered. Economic theory tells us something about the context of…
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IS JOHN KEY FLAKY?

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History;   In the Saturday 17 May 2014 issue of “The Dominion Post Weekend” Vernon small wrote an article. “English emerges smiling from global meltdown: Finance minister one of a string of highly competent money men, New Zealand has been ‘lucky to have’.” In it he quoted me….
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Calculating Sen’s Real National Income for New Zealand

Keywords: Distributional Economics; Growth & Innovation; Statistics;   I have just realised that we can calculate Amartya Sen’s ‘real income’ measure  for New Zealand for a 30 year period, by combining our Statistics New Zealand estimates of national income with the Ministry of Social Development estimates of household gini coefficients. This note describes how this…
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The Austerian Economists’ Error

The Austerian Economists’ Error In the battle of opinions for managing sluggish economies, rhetoric often misrepresents the research.   Listener: 13 June, 2013   Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money;   The right response to high unemployment and lethargic economic activity is to cut back government spending, according to “Austerians”, whose…
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Writings on Earthquakes (Index)

This index, first compiled in January 2013 and subsequently updated, is a list of article on the website which have a substantial content about earthquakes and other natural calamities. They were not a focus until the Canterbury Earthquakes, which I began writing about as “Listener” columns to illustrate general issues. However, they are acquiring a…
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The Global Financial Crisis iii (Index)

Writings on the Long Recession from October 2010 to December 2012 This is the third entry which summarises the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath. The first index (www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=1351) covered the period from August 2007 to March 2009 The trigger was in the US sub-prime market crisis in August 2007, about a year before the…
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Net National Savings and the Real Exchange Rate

This unpublished paper contains figures in its full version. Unfortunately I can’t work out how to include them. I’ll send the figures if requested. Summary This paper derives a locus between the real exchange rate and net national savings (gross savings less gross investment). Its essence is that a rise in net savings reduces the…
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The Relationship Between the Net National Savings and the Real Exchange Rate

A note prepared in October 2012   Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;   Summary   This paper derives a locus between the real exchange rate and net national savings (gross savings less gross investment). Its essence is that a rise in net savings reduces the real exchange rate. Conversely a rise in dis-savings increases the real…
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