The Personal Responsibility Of an Economist

Towards a Just Economy edited by Raymond Pelly, published by the Combined Chaplaincies, VUW, 1991. p.11-20. (Revised version of a lecture given April 1991)

Keywords History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy

Just over a year ago, on my birthday, I visited Majdanek, near the Polish City of Lublin, 160 kilometres south east of Warsaw and 80 kilometres from the Soviet border. Majdanek was a concentration camp. Its dead from starvation, infection, and execution – included 150,000 Poles, 125,000 jews, 70,000 Russians, plus those of other nationalities, a total of 360,000 souls – the population of today’s Christchurch or greater Wellington. The main memorial at the camp is a giant urn containing 7.5 tonnes of human ashes. The inscription reads “Los Nasz Dla Was Przesthorga” – our fate is a warning to you.

The previous birthday, in 1989, I had been up on the Perry Saddle, and while that night the rain had beaten through the windows of the tramping hut – a hut more substantial than those at Majdanek – one never felt the weather on the Heaphy Track was evil. Nature is extraordinarily powerful and can be extremely destructive, but to the modem mind it is not malevolent. That is something reserved, apparently, for humankind.

I will not detail the obscenity of Majdanek; that must be an experience reserved for each of us when we visit a concentration camp . But I want to share with you the path that I was led down, as I mused about personal responsibility, particularly my own.

It is very easy to observe the terrible things at concentration camps like Majdanek, to condemn those directly involved in the atrocities, and to stop there. It is equally unsatisfactory to generalise vaguely that it shows all mankind is capable of committing atrocities, and we are all guilty. My concern was where actually does the responsibility stop?

Let me begin by saying that I am not concerned to blame the German nation as a whole, particularly those who were born or came to the age of responsibility after 1945. I do not believe that sin is inherited, and in that Germans stand with me and as vehemently condemn such behaviour as an abomination, they are no more guilty than I.

The line of thought began because the town of Lublin was so close that on an infamous day in November 1943, when 18,000 Jews were rounded up, herded into pits and machine gunned, loud music was played so the locals could not hear the execution. But over the years the citizens must have known, broadly, what was going on. How compliant were they? And in that they were compliant were they as guilty as the camp guards? I cannot answer such questions because I do not know the specifics. But I began to wonder who else were involved. It is easy enough to condemn the guards, but what about – say –the administrators back in Berlin? They presumably did not know much about the details with what happened, but did they understand the import of their involvement, did they try to find out?

Of course ones’ response to Majdanek was not solely an intellectual one. I wanted a prayer, or a karakia. Lines of poetry ran around inside me not quite saying it. I was reading Frank McKay’s biography of James K. Baxter, and I came across Baxter’s response to his visit of Hiroshima, an even greater oven.

Having seen an ocean of fire and then
An ocean of ashes, her mother’s head
On the ground in the pumpkin field, Eioka lies
Under a stone in Akagi. Not yet ten
She liked bean jam. You guardians of the dead,
Comfort this child, so young in your mysteries.

(Thank you Hemi, for saying it for me but better – again.)

And so my thoughts turned to an even greater oven of extermination, the bombing of Hiroshima. You will recall it was done by ‘our’ side, on people who were not of ‘our’ ethnicity. Again I do not feel personally responsible for the dropping of the atomic bomb, but I have pondered on where that responsibility stopped. For instance did it include the refuellers of the B29s which dropped the bombs? Did it include those in the airbase cafeteria who fed the refuellers ?

One helpful answer, albeit from a much less significant instance, was told to me by a friend whose brother had been in a partnership with a lawyer who embezzled his clients. When the Law Society investigated the brother, it being necessary to do this because lawyers can be liable for the debts of their professional partners, it was shown that the brother had regularly attempted to check on the partnership’s financial integrity. Being deceived himself the brother was found not liable for debts the embezzlement had incurred {and so the debts were covered by the collective Law Society indemnity fund).

The point is the test was whether the brother had taken reasonable steps to prevent the fraud. The instance also clarified for me that other people in the law office – such as the secretaries – were not culpable either because they were not in a position, nor had the expertise, to detect the peculation. Of course if they had learned by chance occurrence of the malfeasance that would change their obligations.

So there seems to be two groups associated with a particular responsibility issue, who may be readily exempted. Those who because of their position cannot be reasonably expected to be involved in the particular event. And those, who while more involved, actively attempted to prevent the immorality.

What was especially cathartic about Majdanek was that I was struck how the concentration camp initially started as solution to a production problem, of maximizing output for the resources available. I must have known it before, but somehow I had not connected that with the obscenities of the human indignities, the deaths, and the executions in concentration camps which I had also read about. Being there not only turned those horrors into a terrible reality, but connected the economics with the immorality.

We normally see concentration camps back to front in time. The first reports – not believed at the time – were when the camps were liberated. Then we have the records of a little earlier when the atrocities were at their worst. And we are so revolted by them that we cannot see before then, when the camps’ purpose was a means of increasing the economic performance of the warrior state.

Yet to the economist’s eye that economic motive dominated the structure of the concentration camp. That is why they were so quick to execute children under the age of ten – the age of Baxter’s Eioka. Children are not economically productive. In cold economic terms the discounted cost of maintaining them exceeded the maximum level of production that they could provide.

Once the concentration camps began down this path of economics before humans, the guards and the controllers became, step by step, inured to the human indignities that were being imposed. I suspect the same is true for those, who while not directly involved in the running of the camps, knew what was going on but did not protest.

If the atrocities had been executed at the beginning, there would have been a fierce reaction to them. But instead an economic theory was implemented, a theory which ignored human dignity, and steadily and relentlessly it was pursued to its final conclusion; a conclusion so terrible that we have almost forgotten the original theory and the original purpose of the exercise.

It matters little that the economic theory of concentration camps was not a very good theory, even in its own terms. The rightness or wrongness of a theory does not absolve the moral issues. In any case no theory is right. The best we can say is that some theory is less wrong than all the others, and this may well be true, on the balance of probabilities, for the theory we currently hold. But we need to be humble when we propose a theory, for it supersedes the theories of many men and women whose intellectual merit far outweighs ours. And anyway economic theories are amoral. We have to add something more to turn a theory into policy and operational reality. Even if the theory of the concentration camp had been correct in the lights of the day, the camps were still immoral – right from their commencement – because they denied human dignity.

I do not want to argue that concentration camps exist in New Zealand today. They do exist, or have existed in my lifetime, elsewhere – notably in Cambodia. I am not a specialist in such areas, and I do not believe I have any direct responsibility to seek such atrocities out. When I learn of them I am feel a bit like the lawyers’ secretary who learns by accident of the fraud, but has no law partner, no Law Society, no police to turn to. All I can do is to acknowledge heir existence by mentioning them in appropriate contexts – such as this one –and responding practically if I am asked for help.

It would be a crude sensationalism to say that we have obscenities like concentration camps in New Zealand. But for the economists, as probably for any professional person, there are situations where parallel moral issues arise.

Every day public policies are implemented, based upon theories which are to various degrees an account of how the world operates. Economists, and other professionals, may dispute to what extent they are the best theory for the given circumstances being a disputatious bunch we economists do. But by arguing about the theories we too often ignore the moral underpinnings which transform that theory into a policy with practical consequences for human dignity. At this stage it is easy to fail to notice properly these consequences. Theories, by their very nature, do not have an explicit moral dimension, so it is easy for us not to observe the practical consequences which involve this dimension. And so, step by step we become inured to any immorality of the policies, and we drift down the road towards a growing evil by failing to exercise our responsibilities.

I illustrate this with a concrete instance. I have chosen the issue of unemployment, because it is probably the most serious – in human terms – economic issue which faces today’s policy makers. I was tempted to chose poverty as my illustrative theme. It is a problem which I have been talking about for two decades, but the conventional wisdom has ignored the facts. Now we have precipitated the most serious poverty crisis in New Zealand in my lifetime. Perhaps because we did not face the poverty squarely, we drifted into an even worse evil today of severe unemployment, itself compounding the poverty problem.

Economists define unemployment as the phenomena of a worker without work, willing to work, and actively seeking work. Economic analysis does not consider the consequences of this unemployment on the person and the family, except where it feeds directly back into the economy. Thus economists recognise the consequences of the fall in income caused by unemployment on consumer spending and confidence, but we do not trace the psychological consequences.

Simplifying reality, particularly by ignoring phenomena which does not seem important in the context of the issues under investigation, is an inevitable part of any science. There is no need to apologise, for it would be god-like to have a comprehensive and all pervading theory. Omniscience is not a quality one expects in humankind, and certainly not from its economists.

However although economists may have a good justification for ignoring the personal, family, and social consequences of unemplovment in their theories of the economy, that justification does not carry over to the same neglect when the consequential policies are advocated and implemented.

To proved a context let me briefly summarise what we know about the consequences of unemployment. Most of the systematic research comes from overseas, and much is scientifically problematic. But such is the overwhelming weight of the evidence we can say, with as much confidence as a scientist may say anything about this world, that unemployment causes a deterioration in the welfare of the unemployed, and of their families, above the deterioration caused by the loss of income. Perhaps the best established result is that the unemployed are more likely to commit suicide, but numerous other indicators of physical, psychological and spiritual wellbeing also indicate that the unemployed are worse off.

Moreover there is evidence that the personal circumstances impinge on the rest of the family. Studies find that not only do long term unemployed men experience a higher level of illness, but so do their wives. Reading this research can be demoralising and depressing, though not as much as it is being unemployed, but it can also be touching and uplifting. As miserable is as the finding that unemployment impacts on the whole family, it shows the social health of one member transmitting to those they are close to. It is good for an economist to see that family is more than a means of consumer spending and worker reproduction.

There is less research on the social impacts of unemployment. For instance it appears that unemployment and crime may be related, but in a complicated way. Certainly we are not in a position to say that the unemployed invariably turn to crime.

What is absolutely clear to any economist reading through the massive research findings – variable in quality though they may be – is that unemployment causes a diminution in personal, family, and social welfare, which is not captured in the conventional economic measures such as gross domestic product.

How should an economist respond to this research? First, I think we are obliged to have a working knowledge of its broad implications. It is no good calculating the productivity of the concentration camp, and ignoring the human misery which goes with it, just because it is outside one’s expertise. For Christ’s sake, even economists are humans.

Second, economists are duty bound to explain the role of unemployment in , modem dynamic economy. At its heart is the process of redeployment, in which workers move from low productivity and obsolete jobs to high productivity jobs in new and expanding activities. In many cases the worke will do this at the same workplace, with little disruption. But sometimes th redeployment will involve moving to new worksites, new firms, new industries, and even new regions. On some such occasions the redeployment transition will involve a period of unemployment.

We may moderate the redeployment process, but as best we understand it, any moderation appears to slow down the process of dynamic change. This will not only slow down the growth of material prosperity, but the economy will lose its market share in the world, stagnate, and ultimately the nation will lose its economic viability.

You will notice that I am not arguing here for the need for a required level of unemployment to control inflation or offset the pressures on the balance of payments. Economists may dispute the need, and the magnitude, but these are using workers for other objectives, which can be pursued by other means. However in the case of redeployment I cannot see any realistic alternative.

That leads to the third step for the economist. Reluctantly – and it has to be reluctantly given a reading of the literature on the social consequences of unemployment – we have to confront the community with the choice between material prosperity with redeployment and some unemployment on the one hand, and economic stagnation on the other. Unfortunately we cannot be precise about the magnitude of that tradeoff, but it is there.

My guess is that when confronted with such a choice, the New Zealand community is likely to say that it wants the level of unemployment to be taken into account when setting economic policies, and would be prepared to make some sacrifices in other economic objectives to attain full employment.

By doing so the community would be implicitly critical of the policies of the last five years, because full employment has had a very low priority in the implemented policies. Advancing of full employment in the goal hierarchy would result in different policies. Full employment would not be an add on to economic policies, but would be an integral part of them.

Adopting this community set goal would provide a very real challenge for economists. Many of us have personal goals which do not conform to the community’s. There is nothing wrong with that; in a democracy the individual is entitled to their own views and objectives. What is unacceptable is the promotion of one’s personal objectives in the guise of djspassionate policy advice. There is no such thing as value free policies; what the public has a right to is value explicit policy advice. A good economist ought to be able to give advice in terms of objectives other than his or her own personal ones.

So the fourth step, for economists and others, is to discuss the meaning of full employment.

Even when registered unemployment was minuscule in the 1950s and 1960s, we know there were unemployed people. The point was they did not report to the Department of Labour. That was because being unemployed was not threatening to most of the unemployed. A situation where unemployment is non-threatening despite there being unemployment as a part of the process of redeployment, is probably the relevant notion for full employment. What that means operationally has to be worked through. While doing so economists would very soon realise that the conventional measures of unemployment are virtually irrelevant.

The percentage of the labour force unemployed is just that. It does not tell as the numbers who are experiencing, or are expecting, long periods of unemployment. It does not tell us whether particular groups of the community – by ethnicity, age, gender, region, or class are unemployed. It does not include those who are so discouraged by their job-seeking experiences, that they no longer actively seek work, even though they would seize a job if it were offered to them. And it does not include those who cling to the margins of the labour force, working a few hours a week, even though they desperately want a proper job, with proper working conditions and sufficient hours of work.

This definition exercise confronts the economics profession with the nasty realisation that the way economic theory models unemployment is almost totally irrelevant m terms of the social consequences. We just hope that reducing the percentage unemployed somehow impacts – sort of proportionally – in consequence terms.

And so we reach the final technical step as a professional economist, which is in two parts. One is to model better in economic theory terms the phenomenon of unemployment. The other is to identify those unemployed who are most impacted by the experience, and seek policies which moderate that impact

This is not the sort of agenda which would go down well in the economics profession because it challenges its conventional wisdom. (It is not the sort of agenda that would be too popular in government circles either. Not only does it challenge its economic policies but also it requires a genuine commitment to a social science research program.)

There would be considerable resistance. The line among some economists and politicians has been TINA: there is no alternative to present theories. Karl Popper says that if you see no alternative to your theory then “take this as a sign you have neither understood your theory nor the problems which it is intended to solve”. It is not merely a lack of imagination and understanding. TINA involves a shortsightedness of vision, for elsewhere in the world one sees all sorts of other policies being tried, in many cases much more successfully than the outturn in New Zealand.

But these technical arguments are almost irrelevant. It is like engineers discussing whether Majdanek was efficiently and economically designed. The human element is being omitted.

You see the technical arguments do not end the issue. A few paragraphs ago I talked about the final technical step of a professional economist. But does his or her responsibility stop there? Is there not a responsibility to speak out?

I am haunted by a statement of the Reverend Martin Neimoeller. Talking about the 1930s he said:

In Germany, they came for the communists, and I did not speak up because I wasn’t a communist. Then they came for the trade unions, and I did not speak up because I wasn’t a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I did not speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me – and by that time no one was left to speak up.

It is so easy to be silent when the government goes for. the workers, and deliberately creates more unemployment, or goes for the poor and deliberately creates more poverty, or goes for the trade unionists. But is it responsible?

As another reverend, John Donne, said in the seventeenth century:

No man is an Island, entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main. …Any man’ s death diminishes me, because I am a part of Mankind; and therefore do not ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.

Or take a different continent, a different agenda. You probably know the tune, Guantanamera. You may even know the Spanish version of the poem of nineteenth century Cuban, Jose Marti, one of the greatest writers in the Spanish language. He wrote them just before dying in an attempt to free his country from tyranny and imperialism. The last verse in English goes

With the poor of the earth/ I want to share m)
The streams of the mountains/ please me more than the sea.
(Guantanamera, guahira, guantanamera.)
Economists cannot claim we are the secretaries in the law firms of the economy. We are partners and have a responsibility to test our colleagues’ account of the world and their policy recommendations. Silence is unacceptable.

While we cannot expect everyone to be on the frontline: there are many ways to share the fate of mankind. Everyone in a profession has a personal obligation to seek a path which does this.

The professional costs may not be insignificant. As John Maynard Keynes commented “worldly wisdom teaches us that it is better for the reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally”. But moral responsibility requires a willingness to commit oneself to truth, and to criticise in appropriate circumstances, despite the personal costs.

Of course the criticism needs to be constructive, acknowledging the good features in the proposal, and offering considered alternatives. As Popper indicates the critic needs to have a thorough understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the theory being challenged.

And so despite, or because of, Keynes’ remarks there is a need for each profession to review and develop its members’ moral awareness. Take for instance the two disciplines that I have been referring to – economics and public policy. In their professional training where are the ethical issues discussed? Where are they reviewed after graduation? I wonder how many professions could be satisfied with their responses to those questions. The outsider has a role to press for such institutions, and support those who criticise – even though they may not support the details of the criticism.

Not facing ethical issues leaves us open to the possibility of the concentration camp, as we become insensitive to moral issues. I came away Majdanek with a greater resolve to take my partnership responsibilities even more seriously. However I must confess there was also the prayer that I should never have to face the moral pressures which they faced who knew about Majdanek: and if, oh Lord, I face such pressures I hope that I will bear them with courage, with truth, and with dignity.

Yet that is not my final image of Majdanek, for none of the horrors moved me as much as the statue near the gas chambers of a woman uplifting her child high in the air. The same statue is also a part of the monument at the Warsaw Ghetto remembering the genocide of the Jews in that city.

The statue commemorates the mothers holding their children high as the gas rose in the chambers, so the young could have a few extra minutes of life. Even near their death those women showed us that marvellous courage we call the human spirit, thinking of the well-being of others even though they were themselves doomed. Their fate is an inspiration to us.

Evidence Of Brian Easton with Respect to Te Oneroa-o-tohe

This is a slightly revised version of the evidence submitted to the Waitangi Tribunal. As well as a number of minor ammendments read to the Tribunal, paragraph 4.4 has been substantially ammended and paragraph 3.21-4 has been added. 26 March 1991.)

Keywords: Environment & Resources; Maori;

1. Introduction and Disclaimer

1.1 My name is Brian Easton. By profession I am an economist and social statistician.

1.2 I have been asked by Counsel for the Muriwhenua Iwi to assist the Waitangi Tribunal by providing some guidance on the economic issues related to their claims about Te Oneroa-o Tohe (Ninety Mile Beach), and on other claims they have made in the area of the Aupouri Peninsula, based on breaches of the principles of the Tiriti o Waitangi, which they say have occurred.

1.3 Unfortunately, because of time and resource limitations I have not been able to visit the area. Thus this evidence relies heavily on secondary material. However I hope that my extensive experiences as a practising economist in New Zealand for over two decades will enable me to present a framework around which the Tribunal can consider the economic issues involved in the claim.

1.4 Although I am primarily an economist concerned with contemporary economic issues, I think it appropriate to begin with an account of the economic issues from the perspective of the Maori at about the time of the signing of the Tiriti. The evidence I presented to the Tribunal in the matter of the broadcasting claim (Wai 150) shows I have a little – albeit Pakeha – knowledge in this area.

1.5 The approach leads naturally on to the issues of environmental regulation and the benefits to the Iwi, the locality, and the nation if the Tribunal should find that the claims are justified, and that assets should be returned to the Iwi and/or other reparations should be made.

1.6 This evidence is agnostic to the question as to whether the claims are justified. I have not seen all the evidence, nor have I the expertise to judge it. I hope, however, that by this evidence I can assist the Tribunal in a better understanding of the economic consequences of any decisions it makes.

2. Classical Maori Environmental Regulation and Property Rights

2.1 The report of the Waitangi Tribunal on the Muriwhenua Fishing Claim establishes that the Iwi had property rights -in effect -over the various fishing species in the seas surrounding the Aupouri Peninsula. By extension, the report implies that property rights were held over a whole range of resources known to the Maori, as well as over land.

2.2 Under article 2 of the Tiriti o Waitangi the rangatiratanga of all land and other resources were confirmed to be held by the iwi. I take it that following the Tribunal’s recent decision with regard to the broadcasting spectrum, that there is no great dispute that resources are covered by article 2, and certainly there should be no disagreement about the ones under consideration here.

2.3 Rangatiratanga is a much broader economic concept than ownership of property rights. (It also involves non-economic notions, but they are not germane to this submission.) In my view, following a reading of a number of standard works on actual Maori practices, the English term which best equates with the economic content rangatiratanga is “stewardship”. Ultimate ownership of the property rights (in the European sense of the phrase) was held by the iwi, past, present, and future. The rangatira were responsible for the management of the rights, in the interests of the iwi, including the allocation of use rights to various hapu, whanau, and individuals.

2.4 Included in the management responsibilities of the rangatira were those for environmental regulation and protection, which supported by customary practice meant that the iwi were able to maintain a self sustaining economy at a high standard of welfare.

2.5 Perhaps the best known regulatory device used by the classical Maori was the “rahui”. Firth describes this term as an “economic prohibition”[#], and Williams as “a mark to warn people against trespassing: used in the case of tapu, or for temporary protection of fruits, birds, or fish etc”[##]. A more recent Ngai Tahu publication used the broader “restrictions, controls, also a statement that a resource is being actively managed, ‘No Trespass’ sign, reserve, reservation”.[###]
[# R. Firth, Economics of the New Zealand Maori, 2ed, (Govt Printer, 1959) p.258-262.]
[## H. Williams, A Dictionary of the Maori Language, 7ed, (Govt Printer, 1971) p.321.]
[### T.M.Tau, A.Goddall, D.Palmer, & R.Tau Te Whakapatau Kaupapa: Ngai Tahu Resource Management Strategy for the Canterbury Region (Aoraki Press, 1990) p.7-8.]

2.6 However a rahui is only a part of the full range of measures used by the classical Maori for environmental regulation. It was an example of tikanga: “the right way of doing things” ( oral source), the “customs” and the “rules” (Williams, p.416). It is for those more knowledgeable in the ways of the Maori than I to elaborate this concept, but an illustration will serve the purposes of this submissions.

2.7 According to R.H. Matthews in 1910

“Fifty years ago shark-fishing was considered and looked forward to as a national holiday by the Rarawas and all the surrounding hapus. The traditional customs and regulations were strictly observed and rigidly enforced. The season for the fishing of kapeta ( dogfish) was restricted to two days only in a year. The first time was about full moon in January, and by preference during the night named in the Maori lunar calendar rakanui, or two evenings after the full moon. This fishing was always by night. The second time of fishing, called the pakoki, was two weeks later just after the new moon (whawha-ata), and was always held in daylight. This closed the season for the year. Anyone who killed a shark after this would be liable to the custom of muru, and would be stripped of his property. N o one was permitted to commence fishing before the signal to start was given; a violation of this rule would lead to the splitting-up of the canoes of the offenders. So far as I can ascertain, the two day’s restriction was a local custom, …..”[#]
[# reported in Waitangi Tribunal Muriwhenua Fishing Report (Govt Printer, 1989) p.68.]

2.8 Matthews gives considerably more detail about the practices surrounding the shark-fishing in a rivetting account of an expedition he was involved in 1855. But what is important for our purposes was that we observe a series of rules to regulate a harvest festival -for that is what it was -including penalties for breaking the rules. Moreover while there were many reasons for the various practices, one of their effects was to conserve the shark for another season.

2.9 That this was effective follows from Matthews recording the astonishing returns from the expeditions. He mentions that “the total number of sharks caught by the fleet, including those taken at the pakoki a fortnight later, was about seven thousand, an average of about sixty-five per canoe for each of the two trips …” (p.73). The average weight of each shark appears to have been about 22½ kilograms, so the total catch was about 160 tonnes.[#]
[# Matthews reports that 265 sharks weighed about 6 tons. p.73.]

2.10 From the perception of the modern day, the practices may be inefficient. A time and motion study expert, or a Treasury Official, could no doubt advise how to increase the harvest with fewer inputs in a particular year. However practically, the tikanga ensured the hapu had sufficient for its needs, and there would be a good catch in following years. It was a procedure for harvesting the sustainable yield.

2.11 There are a number of lessons to be learned from all this. For an economist it nicely illustrates the principle, which is being rediscovered by the profession, that comprehensive property rights, fully allocated, may be an efficient means for environmental guardianship (the Maori word may be “kaitiakitanga”). In my view the claims by extremists that private property rights always lead to a better environmental regulation cannot be totally sustained, but the classical Maori illustrates well the general principle that very often it does work. Practically this means, that for many purposes, returning Maori will result in better environmental resources to the environmental management.

2.12 For the wider issues with which the Tribunal is concerned, this brief review has the implication that the rangatiratanga guaranteed in the second article of the Tiriti encompassed the preservation of tikanga, at least as far as its economic content was concerned. (Some scholars would claim an even wider compass, but my remarks are confined to economic issues only .)

3. After the Tiriti

3.1 The story of the post 1840 unconstitutional alienation of Maori land, by illegal actions or by legal actions arising from laws inconsistent with the Tiriti, is broadly known, and the Tribunal and historians are filling in the details. Recent work has also added to our knowledge of the alienation of Maori property rights over fish.

3.2 In my view the legislation which individualised title and so limited the ability of the iwi or hapu to develop collectively its lands was not only contrary to the Tiriti of Waitangi, but was bad economic policy. What was needed was a mechanism by which the land held by each iwi could be developed to its highest economic potential in the interests of the owners. Instead the individualisation of title either left the land under-developed (or even unutilized) or resulted in its alienation, effectively forced upon the owners by the unsatisfactory legislation.
(More generally, a persistent problem throughout the economic development literature is land tenure, the lack of land reform, and the consequential under-productivity of agriculture. Pakeha New Zealand developed a very efficient form of land tenure, which has been a major factor in the success of its agricultural and forestry sectors. But the price of that success was bulldozing over the interests of the indigenous owners of the land.)

3.3 Given the previous section it is also evident that the alienation of property right also led to the destruction of the Maori regulation and protection of environmental resources.

3.4 The destruction was not immediate and total. I understand evidence is being presented to the Tribunal that some regulatory practices were enforced less than forty years ago, and penalties were imposed even on Pakeha who flouted them. That such customs survived is indicative not only of their strength within the Maori community, but that the laws promulgated in Wellington did not always have their full effect in the districts outside.[#]
[# A splendid illustration of this is found in H. Riseborough’s Days of Darkness (Allen & Unwin, 1989) which clearly shows that while the legislature in Wellington thought it had confiscated lands in South Taranaki, the Maori “rebels” continued to live on them as if nothing had happened. The sad events the book describes are in part due to the misunderstanding that statute law need not necessarily reflect practice ( or justice ).]

3.5 This process of alienation and destruction had two important economic consequences.

3.6 First, the undermining of the ownership of the resource base of the Maori set back their opportunities for development. On the arrival of the European the Maori had shown considerable responsiveness to the new opportunities that occurred. The speed with which they adopted arable cropping is impressive, and demonstrates an admirable degree of practical economic skills. However the alienation of the land throughout the late 19th century ( either directly or by change of ownership rules), meant that the Maori was unable to switch into the new pastoral industries centred around the husbanding of dairy cattle and crossbred sheep. Instead, their economic role became marginalised, and it appears that many moved back into a form of a subsistence economy, in marked contrast to the dominant role they played in the 1850s in arable farming.[#]
[# I have not seen an authoritative scholarly work that traces this economic process. My explanation arises from interpreting the general accounts of the period.]

3.7 Second, even that subsistence economy was difficult. The loss of the resource base, both land and other resources, such as fish by legal alienation and birds as the forests were destroyed, meant the living standards were much lower than the New Zealand European ones, even though a generation or two earlier it seems likely that they were comparable.

3.8 The result was to trap the Maori into a cycle of economIc deprivation,[#] from which to this day the majority are yet to break out, although there is evidence that the gap between non-Maori and Maori male incomes is slowly closing, as will be reported below (para 3.17).
[# I. Pool’s just published Te Iwi Maori (AUP, 1991) provides some helpful insights into this process in demographic terms.]

3.9 A recent paper by economist Paul Dalziel makes a point which all economists, among others, need to take seriously .[#] He refers to a tendency among economists (and others) to describe the poor state of the Maori people in the latter part of the nineteenth century as being due to “demoralisation” (usually as a result of the outcome of the Land Wars and disease). Dalziel’s response is worth quoting in full:

“ …between the signing of the Treaty of Waitangi in 1840 and 1921, the amount of land in Maori title diminished from 66.4 million acres to under 4.8 million acres, a reduction of more than 90 percent. Imagine for a moment that the asset bases of Fletcher Challenge or Electricorp were reduced by nine-tenths, with no compensation for large amounts of the asset-stripping. We [i.e. economists] would not have to resort to exploring the psychological mood of the managers or the shareholders to explain why the companies’ performances would be decimated. Similarly, as economists, we should be able to explain the impact on Maori tribes of uncompensated land confiscations, dishonourable land dealings, and unfilled land sale promises, far better than we have managed so far.” (p.33)
[# P. Dalziel, Economist’s Analyses of Maori Economic Experience: 1959-1989 (Paper presented to New Zealand Economists Association Conference 1990, available from author at economics department, University of Lincoln).]

3.10 Amen.[#] Except one would add that it was not only the land assets of the Maori which were decimated. Other resources were as well.
[# Neither Dalziel or I would claim these to be original thoughts, except perhaps among economists. M.K. Sorrenson’s seminal M.A. thesis reported as “Land Purchase Methods and their Effect on the Maori Population, 1865-1901” (J. Polynesian Soc., v.65,3, pp.83-112) deserves greater recognition.]

3.11 Later, Dalziel goes on

“just as resource deprivation was the beginning of the problem of Maori poverty, so resource transfers to the Maori must be a part of the solution. Following Treasury,[#] an appealing mechanism for achieving this is taxpayer-funded compensation to Maori tribes found to be justified by the Waitangi Tribunal; “appealing” because of its explicit link to the primary cause of the current problems.” (p.35)
[# Government Management (The Treasury, 1987) pp.328-332.]

3.12 Dalziel is right to include the caveat “part” solution, although the wider issues are outside the scope of this Tribunal. But it is well to rehearse them here.

3.13 The material standard of living is, in simple terms, the result of the positive interaction of resources, capital assets, labour including the skills and education embodied in that labour, and the methods and technologies by which these are organised. Thus the resource base by itself is insufficient to give a high standard of living.[#]
[# Except in unusual circumstances such as it being a large oilfield, and even then the situation may well be unsustainable.]

3.14 It helps to have started off with a good resource base, which enables the building up of the capital assets and the quality human capital, and the development of good organisational methods and technology.

3.15 What this means is that the transfer back to the Maori of the resource base from which it was alienated will not be sufficient to remove all the deprivation they have experienced, nor will it fully break the cycle. Nevertheless it can help, in a significant way.

3.16 It would be fair to say that New Zealand seems to be embarking on a new course in Maori development, albeit it one that has echoes of Te Puea and Apirana Ngata in the 1930s.

3.17 If I judge the mood correctly it arises from the rejection of the efficacy of the Welfare State in remedying poor Maori economic performance. I am hesitant to make such a sweeping judgement. The record, measured by age adjusted incomes shows the Maori males to the total male population relativity has been steadily improving throughout the post war era. As the tabulation and figure below show, (male)[#] Maori incomes have been increasing faster than the New Zealand average, but the are still lower than the average.
[# The method is not applied to the female population because of the marked differences in the fertility life cycles.]

Maori] to Total Age Adjusted Income Relativity

Census Year Ratio
1951 66.4%
1956 n.a.
1961 71.4%
1966 73.8%
1971 72.3%
1976 75.0%
1981 77.8%
1986 81.6%[#]

Source: B.H. Easton Income Distribution in New Zealand (NZIER, 1983) p.210, with subsequent updatings for 1981 and 1986 using the same method.
[# This is for those who classified themselves as of Maori descent. Of those who report themselves as half or more Maori the ratio is 78.5 percent. The first definition is closest to that used in earlier Censuses.]

3.18 The increase of the relativity from 66.4 percent in 1951 to 81.6 percent in 1986 represents an annual increase of Maori male incomes relative to non-Maori ones of about .6 percent a year. If the creep continues at its present rate the Maori will catch up with the average some time in the 2020s.

3.19 The details of the mechanisms which elevated, albeit slowly, Maori incomes are not known (but worthy of investigation). In the interim we can say that it seems likely that those which are loosely grouped under the title of the ‘welfare state’ have been important, but -evidently -not enough to attain equality in a reasonable time.

3.20 Moreover the scope of the welfare state is under pressure, with the promise by the fourth National Government to “redesign the welfare state”. A particular concern has been the possibility that the poor have been trapped in a “cycle of dependency” by the system of state support. (It should be emphasised that the phrase, while attractive, has no systematic empirical underpinning.) It is particularly disappointing that the first steps of the new policy, in the package announced on December 19th 1990 package, have an immediate impact of the Maori which is 45 percent more onerous than on the national average.[#]
[# The result and method is reported in B.H.Easton “Assessing the Impacts of the National Welfare Cuts”, Listener, February 11, 1991, p.73.]

3.21 What alternative the government has in mind is not clear, although there may be some insights from the report just released by the Minister of Maori Affairs entitled [#] The report is a 100 A4 pages, and has only just been released. But a brief review of it has some relevance for this submission.
[# D.Henare, M. Thompson, & L Comer, “A Report of the Ministerial Planning Group”, March 1991.]

3.22 Following the presentation to the Tribunal I finally obtained a report which provided a statistical base to discuss the people’s situation in the area. The material reported here is necessarily brief, but does cover provide some indications of the situation of the communities living along the Ninety Mile Beach.

3.23 The ethnic and median adult income measures by each sub-district in the 1986 Census was as follows:

CensusDistrict Population Maori% Income$ p.a.
Te Hapua 228 73.0 10,100
Te Kao 387 82.0 9,400
Houhora 714 29.0 10,000
Waihara 1070 38.0 11,400
Awanui 1058 39.6 11,200
Kaitaia 6031 34.0 11,700
Ahipara 858 49.0 10,300
Herekino 417 52.0 9,900

Source: C.L. Marra, A Community Profile, prepared fro Kaitaia Social Welfare Dsitrict and Published by DSW Kaitaia, based on the 1986 Population Census.

3.24 To assess the average adult income it should be noted that the figure for New Zealand as a whole in the 1986 Census was $13,400. Thus the people in the Kaitaia Borough were 13 percent below the New Zealand median, while those in Te Kao were 30 percent below. The figures confirm that the area is poor compared to most of New Zealand.

3.25 I tried to estimate by what level the Maori was depressed below the local average, by observing that those regions with a high proportion of Maori tended to be those with the lowest incomes. However, there is so much statistical variability by locality (perhaps caused by unemployment, by occupation, and by the response effect of not specifying the income) that I was unable to obtain a secure estimate. Hopefully unit record data could be used to make this assessment. What we can be sure of is that Maori in the area have lower incomes than the national average, and possibly lower than the other ethnic groups in the region.

4. Ka Awatea and a Development Strategy for the Rural Maori

4.1 There is no executive summary to the report, and much is concerned with re-organising existing institutional structures. However chapter 4 “Strategies for Change” appears to be at the core of the development strategy .

4.2 It covers 18 pages, half of which deal with education, the labour market (and training), and health. The remainder is on economic resource development. Of the 36 recommendations which arise from the chapter, 10 are on education, 10 on training, 6 on health, and 10 on economic resource development (of which 5 are institutional).[#]
[# Four, recommendations 32-35 are on an Economic Resources Development Unit, and there is one on the Maori Affairs Bill.]

4.3 The general impression one obtains from the report is a high emphasis on human capital formation (i.e. education, training, and health). The impression is reinforced by the subsequent publicity.

4.4 Indeed the report’s discussion on the role of resources is fragmented, and the recommendations are miscellaneous but not unwelcome. This fragmentation arises, I think, because the report does not sufficiently distinguish between resources and physical capital. It may be that “negative funding” will provide adequate physical capital. But this does not ensure the resource base will be sufficient.

4.5 While the report, with its emphasis on human capital development may be appropriate for the urban Maori, it seems to me that it underestimates the problem for the rural Maori. We can see this best in terms of the successful Pakeha development of rural areas.

4.6 By international standards the New Zealand farmer is high in human capital (and his wife tends to be even better educated). However this has been a part of the process of the rural development, not the cause. More fundamental was that the farmer was adequately resourced, with a good land tenure, and a fair equity in the land. (The equity frequently came form government subsidies including from rehabilitation settlement schemes, and cheap Rural Bank Loans.) Infrastructure was provided by the state, as was the technology from state provided R&D. The farm education and training came with that. But without the resource base none of this would have happened.

4.7 Thus for rural Maori development we have to ensure that there is an adequate resource base too. A strategy emphasising human capital development may be appropriate for urban Maori, but in the heartland of the iwi, the resource base is key.

4.8 I see four broad economic roles for the resource base:
– it may give the iwi mana (although I would avoid too great an emphasis on such psychological factors);
– it would give the iwi resources by which they can employ their people. For example land can be farmed, forests tended, cut, and processed, fish caught and processed;
– it may give a cash flow for equity investment, as when a royalty from a mineral or a tourist attraction is invested in a business enterprise ( or even in human capital formation in the iwi);
– in commercial development possession of a property right (e.g. “ownership”), as distinct from a licensing of access to the resource, gives more security, the ability to raise more debt, and at a lower cost.

4.9 Without an adequate resource base the rural Maori may have no option but to return to ( or develop) a mode of economic operation dependent less on the conventional market economy, and more on self sufficiency – and local community sufficiency – and on the use of local resources. (This is sometimes, not necessarily accurately, described as a “subsistence economy” strategy.) It would not be entirely a cashless economy, but interaction with the commercial economy would be less, partly because there would be less cash. The Maori would be more self sufficient than at present. The material standard of living would be lower than that of the urban Maori, but the life may well be richer in spiritual and other quality terms.

4.10 My judgement is that the option is not be viable in the long run, because there would be a constant drain of the community’s young and able to the urban centres. Nor, as the experiences in the latter half of the nineteenth century illustrate, is it possible for a self sufficient “subsistence” community to isolate itself from the central government. (Or, more accurately, it does not seem possible for the central government to stop interfering with such communities.) Finally the strategy is not viable as long as the central government alienates and holds the resources on which the community will depend (again as illustrated in the late nineteenth century).

4.11 However I fear that in the short run, with rising unemployment and cuts in social welfare, Maori (and non-Maori) – in the Far North (and elsewhere) – will be forced into this “subsistence” type strategy. This has important implications for the kaimoana resource, which I discuss in that section.

4.12 The alternative strategy would be to build up a commercially oriented economy, based on the local iwi, with a higher – but not dominant – subsistence component, and probably with a higher collective component and a lower individual component than for equivalent Pakeha arrangements.

4.13 It is at this point that the role of the return to the local Maori of unconstitutionally alienated assets plus cash or other compensation where that it is not possible becomes important where it provides them with the possibility of an adequate resource base. This by itself is unlikely to remove all the inequality, but it will reduce some of it.

4.14 The exact. strategy will vary district by district, and depend on the resources available. The next section presents an outsider’s account of what might be the strategy for the Muriwhenua iwi, based on secondary sources.

(4.15 The report also discusses using the “negative funding” on unemployment benefits and the like, to convert into a “positive funding” by paying wages to creat capital – a strategy used during the 1930s for both Pakeha and Maori. This interesting proposal belongs to another forum.)

5. A Maori Development Strategy in the Far North.

5.1 Development Directions For Northland (the MacLennan Report)[#] identifies the following activities as having potential in the Northland Region (which is centred on Whangarei and 70 kms to the south):
– pastoral farming (including processing);
– horticulture (including processing);
– exotic forestry (including processing);
– marine farming and fishing;
– mineral development;
– tourism;
– manufacturing.
The following are my interpretation on the relevance of each to the Far North region, particularly in the Aupouri Peninsula. Other studies have been consulted where possible, but the overview remains regrettably shallow. Two topics – kaimoana and tourism – are so important in the context of this hearing, I have given them separate sections.
[#] Prepared for the Northland Regional council by Warren I. MacLennan, June 1989.]

5.2 Pastoral Farming includes traditional sheep and cattle, and the new, much smaller, but rising, deer and goats. The MacLennan Report discusses this activity in terms of the region generally, without evidence of their being any special advantages in the Far North (which may be disadvantaged by the location of the processing factories). I take it that this will not be a central activity in any Muriwhenua development strategy .

5.3 While Horticultural Farming generally brings to mind subtropical fruits and grapes, it also includes tropical fruits, berry fruits, market gardening, flowers, and tree crops. The MacLennan Report mentions that there are opportunities in the Far North, although it is not very specific.
In my view horticulture may have some attractions to Maori development: it can be relatively labour intensive involving both men and women, and recalls classical Maori economic activities. As well as the shortage of land and capital, horticultural development in the Far North may be limited by a lack of research and development to identify the best crops and growing strategies.
In the past this was provided, almost for free, by government funded research agencies, such as the DSIR and MAF. With the introduction of user pays, those regions which missed out on the earlier research effort are faced with funding the work required. However, a part of any compensation package to the Maori might be the provision of government R&D for the land development. This would be “appealing”, in Dalziel’s phrase, because a consequence of the land alienation of the past was that the Maori did not get the opportunity to develop technologies for land utilisation in the way that the new owners did.
I would caution that all reports on horticultural development mention the difficulties with marketing new products (and oversupply of old ones).

5.4 Exotic Forestry is both fashionable and likely to be central to Northland’s economic development. There are already substantial forests on the Aupouri Peninsula, which I understand that the Muriwhenua Iwi have claimed, although any remedies are likely to be some years off. Whether iwi should plant more forests depends on the relative merits of land use between horticulture and forestry.
Forest growing tends to involve a high capital involvement (less so since recent changes in tax laws) and a long time to obtain a return. These may make it unattractive for Maori development purposes, unless there is a cash flow from other resource. In any case the return on wood is not in the growing but in the processing. The Maori may favour a sawlog processing regime which is more labour, skill intensive and would tends to be located near the forests of the iwi owners, although residuals from the timber mean there will still have to be a pulping based process in a more centralised location.

5.5 Marine Farming and Fishing is a modern day continuation of a major activity of the Classical Maori in the district. There is toheroa or other kaimoana everywhere, excellent oyster farming sites in east coast estuaries, and a mussel spat nursery on the west coast of the Aupouri Peninsula. There is also sea fishing, an issue already reviewed in an earlier Tribunal report.
As far as the Beach is concerned, the central Issue is the kaimoana, which the next section discusses.

5.6 Most Mineral opportunities mentioned in the MacLennan Report are not in the Far North region. The exceptions are silica sand dredged from the Parengarenga Harbour, and peat reserves in various places, including at Kaimaumau. I am not sure of the state of either development, but my suspicion is that each will at best provide the Maori with a cash flow from any royalty to which they are entitled, rather than significant employment opportunities.

5.7 Tourism is clearly a key development issue in the Far North, to the extent that the Far North District Council has commissioned a major and detailed report on the industry. Again, like kaimoana, it is a matter of such great significance to the Beach, that a separate section is devoted to tourism.

5.8 It would appear that Manufacturing will not loom large in the Far North. Almost every example cited in the MacLennan report is in Whangarei or to its south. However there may be options arising from primary process (in horticulture and saw milling) and the development of craft related industries for tourist servicing.

5.9 Implicit in the above is that there will also be a demand for a whole set of service industries ranging from professional, business, community, and local government services, to transport, retailing, and distribution services. Underpinning this will be the need for skills, including business skills.

6. Kaimoana

6.1 The evidence presented to the Tribunal suggests that the depletion of the kaimoana has been such that there will be little commercial opportunity for their development for some years.

6.2 Earlier I argued that current economic trends will force more of the locality into self-sufficient non-market activity such as the harvesting of kaimoana. It will be a welcome support -a storehouse to assist the people of the locality through difficult times. This has of course been a traditional role of the kaimoana.

6.3 However I have some reservations with regard to the future of the kaimoana. The evidence before the Tribunal is that there has been serious depletion. We do not know whether this depletion will continue under present usage pressures. But even if it is stable today, the use pressures are going to increase because of the rising unemployment, and the benefit and other public expenditure cuts.

6.4 A storehouse like the kaimoana has to be managed efficiently to ensure sustainable food supplies. It has not in the last few generations. I fear it will not be not be so managed if the present regime of ambiguity in responsibility, with ultimate control in distant Wellington continues.

6.5 The Tiriti clearly intended kaimoana to be included in the “wenua, kainaga, and taonga katoa”. The third English draft, which is mentioned in the Tribunal’s empowering act mentions fisheries explicitly. There is also some rights to fisheries enacted in statute. But as I have explained these harvest rights are much more limited than that encompassed rangatiratanga.

6.6 Practically this means that harvest rights are ineffective unless with them goes the responsibilities of regulation. It seems to me that it would be entirely consistent with the Tiriti for the government to return to the iwi the reponsiblities of kaimoana regulation. I insist that this would not just be the regulatory framework as it existed in 1840. The right to development implicit in the Tiriti, also means the right to develop regulations. Thus the iwi must have some mechanism to enable it to regulate for the impact, for example, of motor vehicles on the kaimoana.

6.7 I add that in my view it would not be appropriate for the Crown just to return effective regulation to its Tiriti partners. The evidence is that the storehouse has been severely depleted. At the very least the Crown should take steps to remedy this by funding a scientific program into the reasons for the decline with the aim of arresting it, and developing a sustainable resource management program perhaps including the eventual recovery of the stock in the storehouse closer to past levels.

6.8 leave for the Tribunal to consider whether there should be some financial compensation from the Crown for the depletion which has occurred while it was officially in charge of regulating the resources.

7. Tourism

7.1 The Far North District Council has recently published a report on tourism in its area, with some special attention to the issues of the very far north.[#]
[# Far North Sub-Regional Tourism Developmental Study, prepared by Murray North Ltd, in association with Boffa Miskell Ltd for the Far North District Council, July 1990.]

7.2 The report estimates 15 percent of the employment in the Northland Region is generated by tourism, and thinks “this is likely to understate the level of job creation” (p.75). This is a high proportion in New Zealand terms. It may well be higher for the most northern area, a sub-district of the Far North District, itself a sub-region of Northland.

7.3 Without question, the Aupouri Peninsula is a major potential centre for tourist development, although the report points out its handicap of being distant from Auckland.

7.4 Tourism has been stagnating and even declining in the Far N orth. This appears to be from a contraction in the domestic market, and there is some expected growth in the international market. The report offers three scenarios through to 1994/5. Relative to 1988/9 they show tourist employment growth of 4.9, 17.3, and 24.0 percent over the six years. Allowing for some domestic expansion thereafter, this suggests a long run tourist growth rate of between 5 and 10 percent a year (p.107). That is equal to a doubling of tourist numbers every 7 to 15 years

7.5 We may all wonder at the implications of tourist traffic doubling on the Beach over such periods, given the likelihood that the traffic has contribute to the kaimoana depletion. The Beach needs a regulatory regime which can respond to such interaction.

7.6 More generally in environmental terms, the report recognises the need for upgrading of facilities and the recovery of the original environment ( e.g. replanting with native species). The impression I have is that there has been insufficient TLC [Tender Loving Care] over the region in tourist terms, and so a magnificent tourist attraction is underutilized. I hazard the view that this has arisen because there has not been a unified regulatory regime, with responsibility lost between a number of government agencies, the local council(s), and the private sector. In my view any returning of the resource to the Maori should include a grant to enable them to return the environment back to a more natural state.

7.7 The report also places considerable emphasis on the importance of business initiative in tourist development. This will include small businesses and, given the high proportion of Maori in the Far North, a significant proportion of that initiative will have to be Maori based. Again equity funding is going to be a problem, and again any return of resources to the iwi will contribute to solving that problem.

7.8 Moreover some of the Maori contribution to tourism will add to the quality of the tourist experience, for only they can properly relate the traditional significance of various sites

7.9 Note that even if the sites are returned to Maori ownership, they would be unwise to keep all tourist development opportunities to themselves. It would be perfectly appropriate, however, for the iwi to charge a licence fee for commercial use, both as a contribution to facility development and as a royalty for the use of the natural attraction. This would add to the iwi cash flow. Other related activities, such as the provision of accommodation, is likely to besupplied by the private sector (including some Maori acting in a private capacity).

7.10 Whether non-commercial users should pay for using the resource is a difficult question to answer. Traditionally N ew Zealanders have had free access to such attractions as the Aupouri Peninsula, and they would resist any attempts to curtail such liberties. Nevertheless it may be the return of a resource, as a result of remedying some grievance from neglect of the principles of the Tiriti o Waitangi, may give the iwi the right to charge for its use. But the fact is that the Maori has been generous to visitors, even before 1840, and the iwi may chose not to charge. In recognition of this generosity the Crown may gift ( or contract) an amount equal, say, to the current Department of Conservation outlay to facilitate the free use of the resource by New Zealanders. I would emphasize that where commercial operations are involved, or where significant investments or costs are incurred by noncommercial users then a charge for use would be expected.

7.11 Tourism is a vital commercial development for the Far North. The Maori has a major role to play in this development. Returning resources to the Maori (plus appropriate compensation) may be an effective means of stimulating tourist development to the benefit of all who live in the region.

8. The Economic Implications of the Return of Te Oneroa-o-Tohe

8.1 In ecological terms Te Oneroa-o-Tohe is a beach at the interface of the sea and the land. In economic terms it is involved in a number of activities, including kai-moana, mussel spat and other commercial fishing, tourism, and recreation. (Nor should we omit the spiritual dimension of the place.)

8.2 The word “ecological” has the same Greek root as “economic”.[#] Thus it is not inappropriate to say a little about the ecological issues involved with the Beach. Poorly managed multiple use tends to result in ecological degradation. I am told this is true for this location. Examples given to me is the possibility that the Beach as road has damaged the toheroa, the evident reduction in the available fish harvest, and the possibility that the forest next to the beach has damaged foreshore (particularly the kaimoana) because of uncoordinated management. Various written sources mention the invasion of exotic plants and animals into areas which should have been maintained as exclusively native in character .
[# oikos = house.]

8.3 A typical source of poor management is multiple management (and ownership ), without any over-arching control. A parallel process can happen in regard to economic management, where there is poor definition of property rights, or inadequate exercise of those rights (from an absent owner[#] or an under re sourced one ).
[# A management regime centralised in Wellington would be an example.]

8.4 So the likelihood is that the return of the Beach to a unified and local agency, as existed before 1840, will lead to the better development in both economic and ecological terms. For instance the Department of Conservation apologises that it cannot do the upgrading which is deemed necessary, because it does not have the funds. The iwi will find the funds (although initially much of it should come from compensation) because it is in their interests to do so, although it is important that they be not under capitalised. (This is not a specific criticism of the iwi. In the last three years a number of large (Pakeha) corporations with big assets bases, but inadequate capitalization have gone under.)

8.5 In national terms improved economic management will result in better overall economic performance.

8.6 This applies also for ecological management which aims to be sustainable (hopefully with some recovery back to past levels of sustainability .) Unified and local management is likely to give better environmental protection. A single authority based in the region should be much better at sorting this out than a number of agencies reporting to Wellington

8.7 In fiscal terms there will be some loss at least initially, arising from the transfer of resources from the Crown and any compensating cash and similar payments. In the long run this will be offset by the improved economic performance, and by the reduction of dependency of the Muriwhenua people on the social security system. If this were to happen the resource return would be a case of the “positive funding” which Ka Awatea advocates (in contrast to the negative funding on social security and sickness).

8.8 Locally the development opportunities and better economiC performance should lift the whole of the region of the Far North. However some people I have spoken to expressed a concern that the Pakeha and non-Muriwhenua Maori may be worse off. I have reminded them of the Tribunal policy that its task is not to remedy old grievances by creating new ones.
The transfer is primarily between central government and the Muriwhenua people, so the locals will benefit from the spinoff of additional economic activity generated by this transfer (but not as much as they would if the transfer was, say, to the Far North District Councilalthough that is unlikely to happen). There may be some people who have received licences to use the resources to be transferred ( often without charge for – as we have mentioned – the central government has not always been economic in its use of the resources in its possession). The untangling of this will depend upon specific circumstances, but I do not see that there need be an outcome where the private licensees or the iwi should suffer .

8.9 Behind all this must be the primary task of the Tribunal to remedy past gnevances. The nation benefitted from the unconstitutional alienation of resources in the past. Justice requires that it remedy such grievances as soon as possible. If the nation did not always use the resources as effectively as it could, then the cost of the return will be that much less to it

8.10 Without judging whether the return of a particular resource (or compensation as an alternative) is justified, I have tried to show here is how returning some or all of the resources in this claim is likely to be beneficial in economic and development terms to the Muriwhenua people, and ultimately to all the people in the region. As I explained in my introduction, I have not had the opportunity to acquire the local knowledge to be able to detail the processes which are likely to be involved, or to quantify outcomes. Indeed I may have made some errors of fact, which I regret. However I believe the economic framework to be broadly correct, and I hope that it is helpful to the deliberations of the Tribunal.

Waist Deep in the Big Muddy?

Listener 25 February, 1991

Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Labour Studies; Macroeconomics & Money; Social Policy;

A popular folk song on US campuses in the late 1960s was Pete Seeger’s “Waist Deep in the Big Muddy”. It described how one night an army platoon attempted to ford a swamp-river. The commander said he knew where he was going. It was just a matter of pushing on. Some of his troops were less certain, but were exhorted with such phrases as “don’t be a nervous nellie” and just show a little determination”.

So, encumbered with their heavy equipment, they struggled ankle deep …knee deep …waist deep …to shoulder deep. The inevitable happened. The commander suddenly disappeared; the rest turned around and got out.

The following day, as they recovered the drowned body trapped in quicksand, the .troops realised their commander had not really known as much about the swamp-river as he claimed.

The song was popular because of its parallel with Vietnam. Step by step, presidents Kennedy and Johnson had got the people of the United States into the terrible swamp of Vietnam. Each step was accompanied by exhortations to ignore nervous nellies and show determination, for soon the battle would be turned. And each step led further into the catastrophic mire.

I have been reminded of that song a number of times in the last few months, not least after having read Treasury’s Briefing to the Incoming Government: 1990.

Most government agencies brief their incoming minister, but the Treasury briefing is grander -to the whole government. I expected it to account for the performance of the economy over the previous six years and explain how we got in such a terrible economic swamp. Its 1984 post-election briefing did. But to do so this time posed a problem for the Treasury. It was its advice that was being taken in the 1984-90 period: like the battle commanders in Vietnam, it was leading us into the swamp.

So Treasury avoids a serious review and gets on with its policy prescriptions. Even here the omissions are surprising. The incoming government, committed to growth, must have been dismayed by Treasury’s advice on the subject. There is none. Like the fox who could not get the grapes, Treasury apparently has decided that growth is no longer a matter worthy of pursuit.

What it did decide was that the government had to pay more attention to its fiscal position. This is a pleasant change from its 1984 advice, when it told the government that it did not need to worry so much about the government deficit if it floated the exchange rate. Six years ago economists told the Treasury it was talking nonsense, and the 1990 briefing agrees. Nevertheless, the quality of the macro-economic advice in 1990 is worse than in 1984. As one senior economist, nameless because he wants to keep his job, remarked to me, this year’s advice is “pathetic”,

There is a long chapter on social spending {which heavily influences the fiscal position), I thought the approach was more moderate than the 1987 briefing, with its undergraduate essay on the ideology of social policy, But the 1990 section is still tough, as you would expect from any Treasury anywhere in the world. Controlling expenditure is the universal Treasury nightmare.

The 1990 briefing even recognises that income deprivation exists in New Zealand (before the December benefit cuts). A background paper, released shortly after, shows the Treasury thinking on the issue is about where social research was 15 years ago.

Perhaps this is a consequence of the Treasury isolating itself from the mainstream of New Zealand intellectual life,) But at least it now recognises the problem of poverty.

The chapter on the labour market is worthy of a separate review. The briefing is contemptuous of the Labour Relations Act: a “limited reform …achieving limited ends”, The Treasury colonels clearly favour unlimited reforms aimed at achieving unlimited ends. The quote precisely places Treasury in the political spectrum.

One of the outstanding books written in New Zealand was Karl Popper’s The Open Society and Its Enemies. Popper supports piecemeal social engineering: limited reforms for limited ends. He is scathing about the authoritarians of the left and of the right with their unrealistic blueprints for total revolutionary change. Yet that is the sort of advice Treasury gives on the labour market.

The message of the briefing is “don’t be a nervous nellie”, “show a little determination”, “follow me”, “even though we are in it up to our necks, I know where we are going”,

Seeger describes “The Big Muddy” as a love song, recalling George Sand’s, “We must not forget this indignation, which is one of the most passionate forms of love.”

Colin James’s description of the Rogernomics revolutionaries as the “Vietnam generation” showed a poor understanding of what the 1960s dissenters were about. They were elsewhere on the river-swamp. The last verse of that song (slightly amended) goes:

Well, I’m not going to point to any moral,
I’ll leave that for yourself,
You’re still walking, you’re still talking,
You’d like to keep your health.
But every time I read the Treasury papers,
Them old feelings come on.
We are waist deep in the big muddy,
The great foll says to push on.

Some Economists of Repute

Listener 14 January, 1991.

I never met James McIlraith who completed his LLD at Canterbury College in about 1910. Published as The Course of Prices in New Zealand, it was the precursor of our consumers price index — which came into being after the 1912 Royal Commission on the Cost of Living for which Mcllraith was secretary. Starting in 1862, Mcllraith’s series finished in 1910. Unfortunately, most of our key official price series start in 1914 and we need the link. We know that Mcllraith updated his series, but we do not have his worksheets. They were probably in his copy of his book. If you own a copy, please check whether it is his, with handwritten data added, and then get in contact with me. The economic history profession would be delighted if you were so lucky.

Canterbury University has had a long reputation of quality statistical work. One graduate was Rex Bergstrom, who has an international reputation as a econometrician. As a professor at Auckland he brought on a host of talented, world-recognised New Zealand econometricians. When Bergstrom went to the University of Essex, the initiative was recaptured for Canterbury by Tony Rayner. Alas, a year ago, Rayner died while tramping. But his work continues in the students he inspired, one of whom is his successor as professor of econometrics at Canterbury.

Chris Higgins was not a New Zealander but, as an Australian Treasury official, he took a keen interest in New Zealand, particularly CER. In early 1987, when it was obvious that the policies of Rogernomics were failing, I gave a paper in Canberra where I carefully went through the evidence. It was with some trepidation that I saw Higgins rise with the first question, such was his reputation. But his concern was that we would not back out of CER or our trade liberalisation policies. Promoted to Secretary of the Australian Treasury he visited us six months ago, again showing a diplomatic scepticism towards the extreme aspects of our economic policies. Just before Christmas he died from a heart attack, after finishing a 3000m race. Australian economics lost a fine public servant; New Zealand economics a friend.

Although born in England, Dudley Seers spent some of his early years in New Zealand and constructed our first comprehensive national accounts (from which we get such measures as GDP) while working in the prime minister’s office during the war. Overseas he was an outstanding development economist, and was the foundation director of the prestigious Institute of Development Studies at the University of Sussex. His greatest impact on me was a brilliant paper I read as an undergraduate entitled The Limitations of the Special Case. It compares the reality Seers met in the countries he worked in with the picture portrayed in a couple of textbooks — one US, the other Soviet. Each offered a rather specialised account of its own situation, as if it were a generalisation for all countries. Seers’s point was that those who slavishly applied the theories in either of the textbooks to their local situation, without allowance for the specific local circumstances, would, have policies that generated poor economic performance, and unnecessary human misery.

Ronald Meek, a contemporary of Seers, also went to Britain after the war, to make an international reputation as a scholar in the history of economic thought and public sector economics. He was a bit of a wag in New Zealand, and still had a glint in his eye when I met him in England. More literate than the average economist, he wrote this piece in 1940, claiming it was sung at gatherings of British capitalists in the 1830s.

Mighty Mammon, at thy feet

In this British bank we meet;

Hear our voices, we entreat – Colonise New Zealand!

We have capital to burn,

Interest we wish to earn;

Overseas we’ll have to turn – Colonise New Zealand!

KCs, PCs, CMGs,

GCMs, and OBEs,

Send your money overseas Colonise New Zealand!

Baronets from county shires,

Knights and lords and country squires,

Parsons, priests and holy friars – Colonise New Zealand!

Help us build across the sea

A land to dedicate to thee

A little Britain let it be, Colonise New Zealand!

If we get our 10 percent

On the money that we have lent

All of us will rest content, Colonise New Zealand!

Labour is not far to seek,

Cheap at 15 bob a week,

We shall form a ruling clique   Colonise New Zealand!

While we charge the infant state

Interest at goodly rate

It will do as we dictate – Colonise New Zealand!

Requiem to Rogernomics

Listener: 10 December, 1990

Keywords: Political Economy & History;

We are likely to argue for decades as to why Rogernomics, the economic policies of the fourth Labour government, failed – and it is unquestionable that they did fail economically.

Of its ‘big four’ objectives, only inflation performance might be said to have improved in six years, and even then the rate was higher in ‘unintervened’ 1990 than in ‘frozen’ 1984. But the balance of payments, unemployment and the growth rate were all markedly worse by the end.

The failure of Rogernomics is already causing the politicians to rewrite history . Here is a quick run through of some excuses.

Was the economy in such bad shape in 1984? Yes and no. There were fundamental difficulties, and the collapse of the oil price in 1985 exacerbated the fragility of the ‘Think Big’ investments. On the other hand, between 1978 and 1985, the economy had experienced its fastest postwar growth rate, relative to the rest of the OECD, and we had a marked improvement in the terms of trade for most of that period.

What about labour-market reform? The issue is more complicated than can be covered in a single paragraph. But one of the rewritings of history has it that from the beginning Rogernomes advocated this. In fact, the 1984 Treasury post-election briefings were remarkably restrained about labour-market reform. Their recommendations were the basis of the 1986 Labour Relations Act, now wildly criticised by the Rogernomes. The first I recall to emphasise the crucial role of the labour market were critics like Merv Pope and Graeme Wells. That does not prove labour-market reform was adequate but it does indicate that at the beginning Rogernomics was ill conceived.

The same applies to the government deficit. The initial Treasury advice was ambiguous, but included: ‘with a floating exchange rate, there is less risk that poor monetary and fiscal policies will impoverish those industries exposed to world trade’. Even today the issue appears to be misunderstood. An article in the September Reserve Bank Bulletin discusses monetary policy without reference to the government deficit.

Another group of justifications for the poor performance of the Rogernomics policies centres on late 1987 and 1988. But except for the flat-tax package, virtually the whole of the December 1987 package was implemented. The tax package itself was ill conceived, for it involved a guaranteed minimum family income package which would have put most families on marginal tax rates near 100 percent. And the package itself was not fiscally balanced, for in the first year the tax cuts applied for six months, while the revenue compensators were for the year.

Judging the policy torpor that arose from the Lange-Douglas stand-off awaits the memoirs. But to blame it solely for the subsequent poor economic performance is to ignore the sharemarket crash which preceded it.

The story is the other way round. The crash demonstrated the shallowness of the false prosperity that Rogernomics had appeared to stimulate. The companies which subsequently fell over did not do so because of the Lange-Douglas stasis. They did so because their 1986 and 1987 profits came from paper shuffling, rather than genuine economic production. When shuffling inevitably caught up with them, they collapsed.

It is possible that the disasters in some of the financial institutions – which, alas, continue three years later – could have been moderated by a more directed policy. But one has to ask to what extent continuing with the Rogernomics strategy would have merely exacerbated the shambles in the long run, addressing the speculative bubble as if it had not happened.

Bumper slogans and a selective memory are not sufficient to explain the poor performance of the last six years, although that is all we may get from the memoirs if initial previews are any indication.

But this column would be failing if it did not also attempt to sketch some defence of Rogernomics, and I would start with the notion of ‘modernisation’.

The New Zealand economy had undergone a major external structural change in the period from 1965 to 1985, centred on diversification in the export sector. But the internal structures were not adapting fast enough. Indeed, many would argue that the Muldoon government had been stalling the rate of adaptation. Thus the brave task of the fourth Labour government was to modernise the domestic structures of the economy, aligning them better with the external sector and the burgeoning world economy.

Thus arose the need for market liberaIisation, at the border and domestically. Institutions had to be modernised too. This could not be confined to the economy, for there is no clear boundary between the economy and society. The education system, local government and the management of the environment, among other things, had also to be reformed.

The Labour government only instinctively understood this. It was so intellectually shallow that it had no standards with which to judge its modernisation programme. Cut off from the roots that sustained it (as happened also to the Muldoon administration), the government was sucked into an ideologically extremist position, without the technical competence to see it was ideology or to recognise its errors.

If the inception of Rogernomics as modernisation was justified and welcome, sadly the execution was desperately misconceived.

A Big Think About Think Big

Listener: 17 September, 1990

Keywords: Growth & Innovation;

The disruption in the Middle East has once more raised the question as to whether a group of major projects, collectively called ‘Think Big’, were in the national interest. There has been no independent and authoritative analysis, for reasons I shall explain shortly, but there are a few things that might usefully be said.

The Think Big projects came out of a national energy surplus that developed in the mid 1970s. This was partly caused by the opening up of the Maui gas field and partly by excess capacity of electricity generation resulting from an excessive construction programme.

A number of steps were taken to reduce the surplus, including the deferring of the Maui B platform and the noncommissioning of the Marsden B oil-fired station, though it would have been better had the latter never been built in the first place.

On top of our local surplus, disruption in the Middle East in 1974 and 1979 hiked world oil (and hence energy) prices. In nominal terms they rose from $US2 or $US3 a barrel in 1973 to above $US35 a barrel in 1980. That meant that our energy surplus was more valuable, if it could be utilised.

There were a number of options for utilisation, including some that were not pursued: the aluminium smelter at Aramoana, fourth and fifth pot lines at Tiwai Point, gas reticulation throughout the South Island, fuller conversion of cars to CNG, a cement works near Oamaru, and so on.

Other options were taken up, including an ammonia-urea plant, a methanol plant, the Taranaki synthetic petrol plant, electrification of the main trunk line in the central North Island and the oil refinery extension at Marsden Point, Whangarei.

A number of projects not particularly related to the energy surplus got included, most notably the extension of the steel mill at Glenbrook, Auckland, and also various forestry-related projects. And there are some energy projects which we appear to forget, like the third pot line at Tiwai Point and gas reticulation through the North Island, perhaps because they were commercially successful.

Things went wrong with some of the projects. Construction cost overruns were particularly damning at Marsden and Glenbrook. Oil prices fell in 1986 and have hovered between $US15 and $US20 a barrel until recently. Real interest rates have proved higher than expected. And it also seems likely that the ammonia-urea plant and the steel extensions were turkeys under virtually any reasonable scenario.

A further complication was that the downside risk for the projects was underwritten by the government, so when the projects went financially wrong it was the taxpayer who carried the financial loss, not the bankers.

However, all these losses were not incurred by decisions of the National Government. Roger Douglas has a very interesting description of much of the NZ Steel story in his Towards Prosperity, including how his own government made decisions which added to taxpayers’ costs.

Most of the evaluations of the major project programme quoted by politicians are only partial. As we have seen, successful projects tend to get omitted. And the statistics tend not to be comprehensive. It is true that the projects have both substantially reduced imports and increased our exports, thus improving the trade balance, but this needs to be offset against the debt-servicing costs that the investments have incurred.

There is also confusion as to the overall impact of the projects. There was a construction and a production phase. During the construction phase the economy was lifted by the extra jobs and activity the investment generated. Claims were made that there would be a further lift during the production phase, but some crude figures I did at the time suggested that the production lift would be offset by the construction slump, so there would be no additional economic benefits after the construction phase (and indeed they have not been noticeable).

A proper economic evaluation of the Think Big projects is faced with two imponderables. First. if we had not had these projects. what would we have had in their place? For instance, would we have flared the Maui gas and spilt the Waitaki water, or what?

And second, these projects are meant to last a couple of decades. So we need to know the price of oil and other relevant commodities and products throughout the 1990s in order to make a full evaluation.

Additionally, there may be advantages from the increased self-sufficiency in hydrocarbon energy the projects generated, but we need to know the probability that a crisis will occur to make this self-sufficiency useful.

As I write this column. international commentators seem confident that the loss of oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait will not shock the world energy (and economic) system. And. in any case, there were alternatives to whatever self-sufficiency we did obtain: we could have built an awful lot of tanks, filled with oil, for the cost of the Glenbrook and Marsden extensions.

But this sort of evaluation is not what the Think Big debate is really about. It is more about political point-scoring than trying to understand what actually happened and learning from any lessons there may be.

If the politicians had an earnest desire to know the truth on this issue. they would commission independent analysts to make a sober assessment. I do not expect to see one in the near future.

The Maori Broadcasting Claim: a Pakeha Economist’s Perspective

Paper presented to the Waitangi Tribuna to assist an inquiry into a claim by the New Zealand Maori Council and Nga Kaiwhakapumau I Te Reo relating to broadcasting (Wai 150), October 1990, at the Waiwhetu Marae.

Keywords: Environment & Resources: Maori; Political Economy & History;

Introduction and Disclaimer

1.1 As the title of this paper emphasises that it is no more than an attempt by a Pakeha economist to write an account of the Maori claim to the radio spectrum and related broadcasting issues.

1.2 It is with reluctance I do so, for the Maori is perfectly able to make the claim in their own right, and indeed have done so. However it has not always been easy for the Pakeha to understand the claim. Thus the purpose of this paper is to ‘translate’ their cliam into an account which a Pakeha economist, and hopefully other Pakeha, can understand.

1.3 This raises a second reason for my reluctance. As will become clear the issue from a Pakeha perspective is not solely an economic one. Other perspectives -including those of the anthropologist, historian, lawyer, physicist and public policy specialist -are also relevant, and I shall have to trespass over their domains, no doubt unintentionally misrepresenting them, as I may also the Maori claim.

1.4 The third reason for my reluctance is the task is essentially one of scholarship. As I have worked in this area I have become increasingly aware that the issue is an enormous one, and that many aspects have yet to be worked through. The excuse for setting down the little I know at this time is that it sets a foundation from which more work can be done, while at the same time it may assist others’ understanding of the issues involved.

1.5 Yet despite the modest intentions of this paper, it represents an exciting project for at least two reasons. First the issue of Maori Broadcasting is an integral part of the survival of Maori into the twentieth first century. We simply have to get it right.

1.6 Second, this is the first paper I have seen which attempts to provide some economics perspective on the Treaty of Waitangi. There are Maori, historian, law, philosophical and-political perspectives on the Treaty, far more scholarly than this. But I am unaware of any economic account of the significance of the Treaty despite its second article having considerable economic significance, because it is concerned about – in Western terms – ownership, control, and use of resources. The more I have worked on this topic the more I have come to the conclusion that for a Pakeha to understand the Treaty properly there is a need to understand the traditional and modern Maori economy, and the economic significance of the Treaty and the events which followed it. I hope this paper will stimulate a wider debate on such issues.

1.7 The reader is entitled to know a little more of the context in which this paper is written. The author has been employed as an economic consultant by the New Zealand Maori council in the course of its negotiations with the Crown over broadcasting policy. My function has been broadly that exhibited in this paper; translating the Maori concepts into the relevant Pakeha concepts and vice versa.

1.8 An earlier version of this paper was requested by my clients. and submitted in November 1989 to the negotiators on behalf of the Crown. who said they found it “helpful” .The same paper was later suhmitted to the Waitangi Tribunal as a part of the clients’ claims on broadcasting (Wai 150).

1.9 In October 1990 I was asked to present the paper to a hearing of the Waitangi Tribunal on the claim. I have subsequently revised the paper. The structure remains the same. hut more material which I collected over the following year has been incorporated.

1.10 I am grateful to helpful comments from Peter Cleave. Jane Kelsey, Pip Saffrey. Piripi Walker, Ranginui Walker, Whatarangi Winiata, the staff of Te Upo O Te Ika. and a seminar of the Economics Department of the University of Waikato where the paper was presented. I also had the good fortune to attend a number of hui sponsored by the Maori Council on broadcasting policy issues from which I benefited. And I am also glad to have the opportunity to acknowledge the contribution of public officials, who acting as negotiators for the Crown, assisted my understanding, and thereby contributed to the strengths of the November 1989 paper.

1.11 The report represents my own assessment. and does not purport to reflect the views of either client. or any other Maori group. nor of anyone mentioned in the previous paragraph, Because it is an independent assessment it may even contradict the Maori account. although that would he unintentional. The role of the translator is to reflect as clearly and accurately as possible the intention ot the speaker, rather than imposing his or her own opinion.

1.12 Note however, that the translation of a conceptual framework involves a much wider remit than the translation of a text. Sometimes 1 may stray too far but clearly it is necessary. to include Pakeha (or more strictly Western) concepts in the account.

1.13 In particular 1 have deliberately considered what might he the Crown account of the issue. It is only by identifying the counterpoint. in so far as it exists and can be identified. that we can understand the Maori argument.

2. The Treaty of Waitangi

2.1 There is no need to detail the Treaty of Waitangi, that solemn compact signed between the Maori and the British Crown in 1840. Its significance to broadcasting policy is that it is the Treaty which is the foundation on which the Maori broadcasting claims are based. There may be other bases -for instance aboriginal rights -but current Maori thinking derives from the Treaty.

2.2 For our purposes the Treaty the three articles of the Treaty may be described as the ‘Kawanatanga’ article, the ‘Rangatiratanga’ article and the ‘Tikanga’ article.

2.3 The first transfers kawanatanga from the Maori to the British Crown. Here we shall take the term to mean ‘governorship’, although there has been much exegesis on what was meant.

2.4 The second article places a weighty caveat upon the transfer of governorship, for it states that the British Crown agrees to the Maori, “te tino rangatiratanga o o ratou wenua o ratou kainga me o ratou taonga katoa.” Kawharu (1989) translates the expression as “the unqualified exercise of their chieftainship over their lands over their villages and over their treasures all”. A far earlier translation reported by the Rev. Richard Davis, who was at the signing, in his memoirs says “the entire supremacy of their lands, of their settlements, and of all their personal property”. (Coleman 1865) This indicates that the generation involved in the signing of the Treaty could be aware of the import of the Maori version.

2.5 The English language version of the Treaty, which is scheduled in the Waitangi Tribunal Act, refers to the same expression as “the full exclusive and undisturbed possession of their Lands and Estates Forests and Fisheries and other properties which they may collectively or individually possess so long as it is their wish and desire to retain the same in their possession”. (This version seems to be the thrid draft of the Treaty completed on 3 February 1840. The following day it (or a later version in English) was given to Henry Williams to translate. It appears that at least one alteration was made to the Maori translation. Thus the Maori text signed by the chiefs on the Marae was the fifth, and possibly the sixth, draft. So the third draft is not comparable with the signed Maori version and it is quite misleading to say, as I was taught, that they are translations of one another (Ross 1972))

2.6 The third article, the least contentious of the three, states the British Crown gave the same tikanga as the people of England. In this context the phrase involving tikanga is usually translated something like “citizens rights and duties”.

2.7 This paper focuses upon the second article, although the other two will also concern us. The point here is the second article states that the Maori retained certain property rights as a part of the transfer of governorship and citizenship. At dispute is what those rights were in respect to the radio frequency spectrum.

2.8 Two important terms in the Maori language second article appear to have English language parallels, albeit loose ones, for we might compare “rangatiratanga” with ownership and “taonga” with property (or, as we shall see, resources). However in each case the Maori term is more comprehensive than the English term. Understanding these distinctions are crucial for understanding the Maori Case.

2.9 Therefore the next sections explore the distinction. Underlying our approach is that “the Treaty always speaks”. We are asking, what then does it say about broadcasting?

3. Property (and Resources) and Taonga

3.1 At a superficial level the notion of property appears to be well established in the Western conception.(1) This is because it appears to be founded on such a tangible matter as land. However, in recent years economists, among others, have become increasingly aware that there exist phenomena which has appear to have the characteristics of property but are far from tangible.

3.2 As a result economists tend to focus on ‘property rights’ rather than property. Thus there exists intellectual property rights, as for example embodied in copyright. By analogy there exists ‘intellectual property’ despite it being much less tangible than land.

3.3 But property rights associated with land may also be far from tangible. For instance under town planning ordinances the owner of a piece of land may be able to sell the airspace above it, forgoing the full use of the planning entitlements to the land by selling the unused entitlements to the developer of another piece of land. The Land Transfer Act 1972 defines land to include “messuages, tenements, and hereditaments, corporeal and incorporeal, of every kind and description”. My dictionary gives a legal meaning for incorporeal as ‘having no material existence’ and ‘intangible’.

3.4 As is evident from the above examples, Western environment property rights are based on common and statute law. There may well be phenomena which appear to be like other property, but because there is no law there is no way of enforcing property rights. For example while there is a copyright on this paper, were it to contain any original ideas that author would have no claim to them as property, and could not charge others for their use.

(3.5 This is by no means a trivial issue. The development of hardware, software, and usage of computers is fraught with these property right issues, and we can expect the evolution of statute and judge made law to cope with them. If there is not such a development the evolution of computers services themselves may well be inhibited.)

3.6 The economics literature sometimes uses the expression ‘resource’ mean something for which there is a potential property right. Thus while there may be no law which determines the property rights of the resources, or of all aspects of the resource, never the less one might conceive of an enactment of such a law which would formalise the property rights. We shall follow the terminology here.(2)

3.7 This distinction between property and resource nicely solves the question as to whether there was any property on 5 February 1840. Because there was no legal framework, in the Western concept, it could be said that there was no property in the legal sense. But there were resources, and indeed there were well defined procedures by the Maori to settle issues of usage and ownership. Clearly the relevant concept for interpreting the Treaty’s use of the term taonga in a Western framework is resource. It is also clear that a crucial process in the post 1840 history has been the conversion of resources into property.

3.8 But the Maori notion of taonga is broader than resource, or property as exhibited by the existence of property rights. It is not that taonga may be intangible, for we have seen that this is true for property in the Western system. However taonga, which is usually translated as ‘treasured possessions’, may include matters for which there exist no legal property rights.

3.9 This insight was stunningly illustrated by the Waitangi Tribunal when it ruled that the taonga mentioned in the Treaty included the Maori language, a position which is now also adopted by the Crown. It is not just that there can be few things more intangible than a spoken language (and more concrete in human terms). But there is no obvious way it can be converted into a bundle of property rights, in the usual sense of the term. No body, be it a collectivity or an individual, can claim exclusive use to the language, control its form or substance, or transfer the rights through sale. To do so would be to limit the very things which make it a taonga.

3.10 Thus the Maori notion of taonga encompasses the Western notion of property, because it includes all property, and some items which cannot properly be designated as property.

4. Is the Radio Frequency Spectrum a Property (or Resource)? Is it a Taonga?

4.1 It would be possible to dispute at some length that the radio frequency spectrum does not exist, or is so intangible that it is not property or resource. But the fact of the matter is that there is a phenomena on which property rights to its use are based or can be provided. As a result it is convenient to treat that phenomena as resource with the potential to be converted into a property.

4.2 We will not elaborate the previous paragraph. The proposition is so self evident that Richard Posner in his classic text Economic Analysis of Law (1986) adopts it without providing a justification. A section is headed ‘Property Rights in Law and Economics: The Case of Broadcasting Frequencies’ (p39). He says’ so in economic, although not in formal legal terms (in the United States at the time of writing], there are property rights in broadcast frequencies’ (p.41). Later he remarks ‘broadcast frequencies [are] a resource that has some of the economic characteristics as water’ (p.69), and ‘the fact that the electromagnetic spectrum is limited does not distinguish it from other resources’ (p.634). In each of these quotations, Posner is treating as an uncontentious matter of fact that the radio frequency spectrum is a resource.

4.3 There are unusually strong reasons for taking notice of Posner in the context of the New Zealand debate. It derives not merely from his eminence in the field of the development of Law and Economics while on the faculty of the University of Chicago, nor that he is currently a Judge of the U.S. Court of Appeals of the Seventh circuit. It happens that Posner is using exactly the same analysis as underpins the New Zealand Government’s policy on the radio frequency spectrum. In particular the N/E/R/A report, commissioned by the Ministry of Commerce, refers to the same literature as Posner, which commences with some seminal work by Posner’s University of Chicago colleague, Ronald H. Coase.(3)

4.4 Moreover Posner’s concern in his text is the inefficiency of an incomplete set of property rights in the radio frequency spectrum, exactly the concern in New Zealand public policy. For the New Zealand government to deny Posner’s assertion that the electromagnetic spectrum is a resource would involve them constructing an entirely different justification for the proposed policy regime than the one they currently offer.

4.5 The issue of intangibility may be thought about this way. The path across a field may be said to be to be intangible. There is the physical phenomenon of the earth undertfoot. and the footwear on the earth, and there is a regulation in their relationship when people cross the field. Nevertheless we could argue that the path itself has no corporeal existence. Even so it could still generate property rights. insofar as someone may have the right to say who may or may not use the path. and to charge for those rights. and to alienate them to someone else. or even to change the path across the field. The property rights need not be held by the owner of the land. since if the path is a public right of way it is the pedestrian who has the relevant property rights. Similarly even if the electromagnetic spectrum is intangible. there are property rights associated with its use. In that sense the spectrum is clearly a resource, ,

4.6 If the radio frequency spectrum is a resource then it is a taonga. (4) However the Maori have offered some further justifications for this status.

4.7 First is the Maori account of creation.(5) The Maori creation story might be thought of as the Maori way of stating a set of principles which have been summarised in Western terms as
“(i) A reverence for the whole of creation;
(ii) A sense of kinship with fellow beings;
(iii)A sacred regard for the whole of nature and its resources as being gifts from the gods;
(iv) A sense of responsibility appointed stewards, guardians, and rangatira;
(v) A distinctive economic ethic of reciprocity;
(vi) A sense of commitment to safeguard all of resources (taonga) for the future generations.”(6)

4.7 In regard to the broadcasting debate the Maori is saying – I think that the traditional Maori view was that all things created are taonga, and that while the 1840 Maori may not have had a concept of an electromagnetic spectrum, there was a certainly a place in their universe for it.

4.8 The 1840 Maori was no less informed than the 1840 European on such issues. In discussion Maori people have suggested to me that the Pakeha ought to provide an 1840 European account how the radio frequency spectrum would have fitted into their cosmology, if they could have grasped the notion. The point they are making is that the Maori exposition. of the radio frequency spectrum in their creation story should be judged against this European account.

4.9 iu Moreover we need to be careful about assuming what the nineteenth century Maori and Victorian did or did not know. Both knew something about the electromagnetic spectrum. because light itself is a part of that spectrum, with a higher frequency than radio waves. It is even possible that the Maori and the .Victorian had notions of phenomenon that today we call electromagnetic radiation which they could not see. For instance they may have heen aware that on a cloudy day ultra-violet light (as we call it) can affect a person.

4.11 The point is that we have biological receivers for light. That is what makes radio waves different from light. not some inherent feature of their physical properties. As I understand it the Maori does not contest the general principle that they should pay for receivers of radio receivers. nor any patent that may be involved with the equipment. That is different from the resource itself.

4.12 The scientific relationship between light and other parts of the electromagnetic spectrum would certainly be called upon by the Maori to reinforce their claim that the spectrum was created. I find it interesting the central role that light plays in the Maori creation story. Following Te Kore, the great void of emptiness. there was Te Po. the night. The darkness was everywhere. As Te Rangikaheke. the Te Arawa Tohunga. told George Grey
Koia enei kupu. “Te Po. te Po. te Ao. te Ao. te kimihanga. te hahaunga. i te Kore, i te Kore.” (1956:1)
Grey translates this literally: ‘Hence also these sayings of old times are found in our prayers: “Darkness. Darkness. light. light. the seeking. the searching. in chaos. in chaos” (Grey 1956:2). Ranginui Walker offers a freer interpretatiun of the prayer as “Because there was no light. there was no knowledge” (1990:12)

4.13 In a twentieth century guise that prayer remains at the heart of the Maori broadcasting claim. “Without access to the relevant part of the electromagnetic spectrum. there will he no Maori language and culture.” Were they alive today, Te Rangikaheke and his tupuna would be very happy for their prayer to be a motif for the Maori broadcasting campaign.

4.14 The second reason the Maori propose for treating the broadcasting spectrum portion of the radio frequency spectrum as a taonga above that of merely a resource is that they are an oral culture.g Thus a means of oral transmission is particularly valuable to the Maori. This point is put rather movingly in the draft submission to the Waitangi Tribunal (yet to be submitted) which likens broadcasting to a means of sustenance of the mind, language and culture of the Maori people. If this paragraph is short, its import is long. If the Maori culture is to survive, if the taonga of language is to be preserved, they must have adequate access to the broadcasting system.

4.15 The third issue the Maori raise is that very often the broadcasting transmission and reception are on sacred Maori sites (for the obvious reason that sites which were prominent to the Maori provide long clear sight lines for of signals). There are two grievances here. One is that the sites were alienated from their owners in unsatisfactory circumstances, and any further usage of the site reminds the wronged past owners of their grievances. Clearly this is a matter that needs to be addressed – preferably promptly – but it is not germane to the broadcasting issue since other sites could be used at a greater cost. The other grievance arises because the site and instillation is seen as a tangible evidence of the claim to the intangible radio frequency spectrum.

4.16 In summary there is no doubt that the radio frequency spectrum is a resource, and in so far as the informal property rights associated with it are legally formalised the radio frequency spectrum is a property. It is also a taonga, not only because it is a resource, but because it is an integral part of the Maori perception of their world, and a fundamental means by which they can protect and promote their language and culture.

5. Ownership and Rangitiratanga

5.1 Economists usually characterise possession of a property right of an asset (including a r~source) by three features
(i) the right to use the asset;
(ii) the right to change its form or substance;
(iii)the right to transfer all rights through sale.

5.2 Where there exist in a relatively unfettered form the individual or collective which possessed these rights would be described as an owner. There will almost always be some restrictions on the rights, and even where they are onerous the term ownership may apply. For instance the owner of a building with a premier historic buildings classification may not possess the right to change the building’s form or substance, but the term ‘ownership’ would still be used. However the owner retains the right to sell the building, and that third right – of transferability – is usually the crucial characteristic of ownership.

5.3 Note that the owner may be an individual or a collective. This is important in the Maori context, because as the English language version of the second article of the Treaty of Waitangi states, collective ownership was common, certainly dominant, and possibly universal excluding personal items) in traditional Maori culture.

5.4 It should be recorded that much of the land legislation of the last 150 years has been to convert Maori collective ownership into individual title.(8) But the second article of the Treaty recognizes that collective ownership was legitimate, and guaranteed its continuance over existing Maori possessions – wenua, kainga, and taonga – following the signing. That the notion of ownership was clear is indicated by the second sentence of the article which discusses the circumstances in which the owners may choose to alienate their land.

5.5 A third point is that the property rights of same tangible (or intangible) asset may be possessed by different persons or collectives. For instance leasehold land is owned by one agent, who typically is different from the agent who has the right to build on the land, while the right to dwell on the land may belong to a third. In the informal system of Maori property rights it appears it was not unusual for different whanau, and even hapu, to have separate rights to utilise different resources which came from the same piece of land. There was even time sharing.(9)

5.6 However the notion of ‘rangitiratanga’ is wider than merely of ‘ownership’. The word itself – despite appearing in the second article of the Treaty – presents some real problems for it is a word constructed for the specific purpose of the Treaty rather than being generally in the Maori lexicon. It is clearly intended to derive from the indigenous Maori word “Rangatira”, who was “a person of high rank, a chief” (Biggs 1989).

5.7 There have been a number of attempts to untangle what the signatories had in mind by using this word. Kawharu translates “tino rangatiratanga” as “unqualified exercise of their chieftainship”. The English language version of the Treaty uses the phrase “full exclusive and undisturbed possession”. Davis as “entire supremacy”. The English language third draft uses the phrase “full exclusive and undisturbed possession”. Significantly it does not use the term “ownership”, suggesting the English language drafters had a more comprehensive notion in mind.

5.8 The Waitangi Tribunal has pondered on the issue in detail (e.g. 1987 part III), but it has not yet turned its attention to the distinction between ownership and rangatiratanga.

5.9 For a final source I turned to Raymond Firth’s seminal Economics of the New Zealand Maori. Although it is packed with information about the economic behaviour and custom of the Maori it does not link together rangatira and ownership. Never the less it is from that source I hesitantly offer the following conjecture.

5.10 The Rangatira could claim authority over possessions which they did not actually own. The ‘legal’ owners would require some agreement from the relevant Rangatira if they were to markedly change its usage, form, or owners. The rules for the exercise of this agreement I can only guess, but we know from accounts of the events which precipitated the Taranaki Wars that a major change of the ownership of land involved the agreement of the highest Ariki. It also seems likely that such changes would involve not only the recognition of the Rangatiras’ mana, but perhaps a koha (gift), for reciprocity (utu) was central to Maori society. If so it would be virtually impossible to alienate the rangatiratanga from a possession, for each change would require approval from the Rangatira.

5.11 This approach may not be as alien to Western experience as might at first appear. In particular, English law maintains that in some sense the land is the Crown’s possession, and those who are said to own it actually hold it only in fee simple. While they have considerable freedom to use and dispose of the land as they wish, the Crown reserves considerable powers over its use. Examples include town planning, and historic places legislation, while the owner may be restricted from selling the land to foreigners. What is important is that in each case the Crown may vary the requirements and restrictions, but the owner in fee simple has no redress or right to compensation. It does not seem to me to be a travesty of the concept to state the Crown has rangatiratanga over English land.

5.12 But rangatiratanga was more than this. Another aspect was custodianship for people in the past and future, and on behalf of all that is created. The parallel today would be the sentiments expressed by most environmentalists.

5.13 The responsibility to generations in the future is nicely illustrated by the rules of forfeiture of rights. Smith (1936) wrote ‘If a native left his tribe and went to live in another district either through marriage or otherwise, and he and his descendants remained away for three generations, they would forfeit all rights to the land so abandoned’. (p.57) The implication that such was custodial responsibilities of the rangatira that he could not unilaterally abandon land for which he was accountable. The abandonment had to be confirmed by, not one but, two further generations. including people who were almost certainly not alive when the: initial decision was made. Here again is another illustration of the wider scope of rangatiratanga in comparison to ownership.

5.14 Many of the remarks in the last few paragraphs are conjectures. and should be treated as such. If they were to prove correct they would have the implication for the radio frequency spectrum that if the Maori once held rangatiratanga over it. any sufficiently significant change to its use. form. or ownership would require the acknowledgement of that rangatiratanga, even though ownership had been alienated.

6. Who Owns the Spectrum? Who has Rangatiratanga Over It?

6.1 Earlier we established that the radio frequency spectrum was a resource .e.:n a taonga. We have yet to establish who has the property rights to it.

6.2 The Maori account of the possession of the radio frequency spectrum is simple. It was a resource on the 5 February 1840 over which they exercised rangatiratanga by the fact that it was a part of creation. Resources were guaranteed to the Maori under the Treaty signed on the 6 February 1840. No resources or property rights were transferred by the Treaty. Ergo on the 7 February 1840 the Maori still exercised rangatiratanga and ownership. At no stage have they voluntarily transferred these rights. Therefore on 1 December 1989
either the Maori retain their rangatiratanga and ownership of the radio frequency spectrum;
or it has been expropriated without compensation.

6.3 The argument requires a little more care in a couple of areas. First did the Maori really own the resource in early 1840. since they knew nothing about it? The easy point is that neither did the British Crown. More subtly the resource existed, even if on-one knew that it did. Someone must have owned it then.

6.4 The only alternative that I can think of is that the radio frequency spectrum might he deemed to he .wasteland. and for the Crown to claim it under some territorium nullius approach. in which the sovereign claims the wasteland. The Crown has been hesitant to make such a claim in regard to the South Island during the Ngai Tahu hearings before the Waitangi Tribunal even though Governor Hobson did.

6.5 In any case. where in the Treaty is such a right agreed to? It is not obvious that it is encompassed by the Kawanatanga provision of the Treaty of Waitangi. Significantly perhaps, the notion of a wasteland appears in the second draft of the Treaty, which was under the direction of Hobson. In the third draft. in which Busby who was more familiar with Maori custom was closely involved. references to wastelands were dropped. presumably because it was thought there was none. Insofar as the second draft sheds any light on the status of wasteland it implies that they were nevertheless the responsibility of the chief. The exact words are
“The United Chiefs of New Zealand yield(10) to Her Majesty the Queen of England the exclusive right of Presumption over such waste lands as the Tribes may feel disposed to alienate.”
It is hard to see that there is merit in the wasteland thesis.

6.6 The second problem is that suppose it is established that the Maori had full possession of the radio frequency spectrum in 1840. Did they do enough to maintain that possession’? One test of Maori land tenure required usage in order to maintain possession. “I ka to nu taku ahi i runga i toku whenua -my fire has ever been kept alight on my land” ( Firth 1959:385).

6.7 Recall there was a procedure by which after three generations of abandonment a hapu or whanau lost its rights to some land (5.13). Three generations – say 75 years – is a long period of non-usage before ownership is extinguished. The next section shows that the Maori has ben much more active in the usage of the spectrum over the period it has been used. Indeed Maori involvement had been almost continuous, and so meets the tougher test of paragraph 6.4.

7. The History of Maori ‘Occupation’ of the Spectrum

7.1 In the case of the radio frequency spectrum this is a much harder matter to establish because of the inherent characteristics of the resource. In particular our understanding of the spectrum as a resource has evolved.

7.2 It seems to me the best test as to whether the Maori had adequately ‘occupied’ the radio frequency spectrum to maintain possession is ask to what extent the Maori used the spectrum as it became available in the light of the understanding of the day, and their material situation.

7.3. As I understand Maori custom, it is not necessary for the claimant to establish dominant occupation of the disputed possession, only continued occupation. This is important in the broadcasting context, because it would be unreasonable to expect the Maori to have dominated spectrum usage, given their rural base in the middle of the twentieth century, and their relative impoverishment.

7.4. It may be that the Waitangi Tribunal hearings will obtain oral histories of the Maori ‘occupation’ of the radio frequency spectrum. The best I can offer in the interim is a short review of the written histories, which focus only upon broadcasting.

7.5 It is useful to identify six repeat phases in the development of spectrum usage.
I – late 1880s to 1903: the period of scientific research;
II -1904 to 1925: the period of scientific development;
III -1926 to 1936: the period of commercial development;
IV – 1936 to 1969: the period of the state monopoly;
V – 1970 to 1988: the period of opportunities for private commercial development;
VI – 1989 to ?: the period of commercialisation.

7.6 The period to 1902 need hardly detain us. It covers the time when Heinrich Hertz first identified radio waves, through the experimenting of Gugliemlo Marconi (and, incidentally, Ernest Rutherford at Canterbury in 1894) to the passing by the New Zealand of the Wireless Telegraphy Act 1903. As the Act title indicates the phenomena was at the time conceived by the New Zealand parliament as an alternative to (Wire) Telegraphy, and there appears little idea of the full implications of the medium. There is no record of, and it would be inappropriate to expect, significant Maori involvement in this phase.

7.7 That applies also to the second phase in which the potential of the spectrum was explored (notably by Professor Jack of the University of Otago). There may have been some Maori involved in the experimentation and exploration but thus far no record has been sighted.

7.8 The phase ends with the gazetting of the “Radio Telegraph Regulations for Experimental and Broadcasting Stations 1923″ and a speech by the Postmaster General, Gordon Coates. Both have considerable significance for the analysis. Note the regulations still use the term ‘telegraphy’ indicating still a limited conception of the medium. However the regulations included program content regulation including that there be a high proportion of local artists. We shall see the import of this for Maori in the next phase. The Coates speech insisted the State control of wireless communications, reaffirming the position adopted Liberal Government in 1903. The key word here ‘control’. There is as yet no notion spectrum being a resource which may have property rights.

7.9 For our purposes the third phase from 1924 to 1935 is when the Pakeha historians begin to refer to Maori involvement in the program content of the broadcasting system. The indications are that a particularly special occasion was Waitangi Day, 1928 – less than two years after the YA stations were set up – when 2YA presented a ‘Maori history in two and half hours of oratory, song and story’. Maori entertainers (from Wanganui) were used, as they had been earlier in 1927. The program was rebroadcast on other domestic stations and even by a Sydney station 2FC.

7.10 In the third phase there had been a mixture of forms of ownership, all with heavy control by the State (for instance advertising had not been permitted). In 1936 (almost) all the stations were nationalised, leading to the NZBS, the NZBC, and BCNZ. The historic record of Maori involvement includes Pani Parata Te Tau as the first broadcaster using the Maori language in 1936 (although the Maori would have been heard from 1927), the appointment of a Maori announcer in each of the four YA stations in 1937, and the news in Maori in 1942. This news appears to have been part of the War effort, and perhaps appropriately – if sadly – the first true Maori news item was the report of the death in 1944 of Hori Tupea, one of the most respected chiefs of Maoridom, killed in battle. Previously the news had been solely a Maori translation of what Beverley Wakem describes as the ‘Pakeha global message’.

7.11 The record to this period is that the Maori was using the spectrum as a means of communication, to the Pakeha of its language and cultural taonga, and to their own people. They did not claim ownership of the medium because it was not seen as something which could be owned. In return the state run broadcasting system responded to Maori desires – perhaps sluggardly. For instance, from 1944 a mobile recording unit collected Maori material for the program “Harmony and History”, while in 1957 a three quarters of an hour program for East Coast Maori listeners was commenced in Napier.

7.12 The phase of monopoly national ownership came to an end with the licensing of Radio Hauraki in 1969. After that we find regular attempts by the Maori to be more actively involved in the running of broadcasting. At least six Maori groups made submissions to the Adams Committee on Broadcasting, who recommended the establishment of a (state run) Polynesian station based in Auckland. This fell through but in Radio New Zealand established in 1976 “Te Reo o Aotearoa”, a station without a transmitter. Local Maori Radio stations sprung up, and the New Zealand Maori Council established the Aotearoa Broadcasting System to apply for the third Television Channel in 1984. In the same year Nga Kaiwhakapumau Te Reo made a claim to the Waitangi Tribunal which involved aspects of Maori broadcasting. The Tribunal chose not to rule on that matter.

7.13 In summary the recent period has seen a shift from the Maori using broadcasting spectrum for conveying its message, to demanding the controlling the vehicle through which broadcasting was conveyed. In doing so the Maori reflected the conventional wisdom as to the nature of the radio frequency spectrum and of the broadcasting system as reflected in the 1973 Adams report and the 1986 Royal Commission on Broadcasting, among others.

7.14 The latest stage involves the corporatisation (and possibly privatisation) of the State Broadcasting System, and the creation of transferrable (i.e. sellable) property rights in the radio frequency spectrum. The technical term for this is ‘commercialisation’. It is relevant to observe that the to observe that the intellectual ideas are as recent as 1959 – a shorter gap than between Hertz’s discovery of radio waves and the 1923 regulations. As recently as 1986 the Royal Commission failed to favour this approach.

7.15 The Maori response has been to claim their share of the property rights to the radio frequency spectrum under the Rangatiratanga provision of the Treaty of Waitangi.

7.16 In summary, the Maori have a record of ‘occupation’ of broadcasting, consistent with an active interest in the use of the media, in the light of the understandings of the media of the time.

7.17 A couple of canards need to be dealt with, albeit briefly. It is perfectly true that the Maori did not understand the nature of the radio frequency spectrum in 1840. Neither did the European, including Queen Victoria. Indeed. in 1880, an Englishman David Hughes may have identified electromagnetic signals seven years before Hertz, But a gathering of scientists including the Chief Electrician of the Post Office and the President of the Royal Society, to whom he demonstrated his results, took the view that this was not a new phenomenon, thereby leaving the discovery of electromagnetic radiation to Hertz. seven years later (Mason 1981). It seems unlikely that the gathering of experts included any Maori, and one can only speculate whether one would have be:n more supportive to Hughes. given the Maori creation story.

7.18 Broadly the Maori understanding has grown at the same rate as the Pakeha one. The Pakeha one was often very limited too. As recently as 1986, cross examination of the Treasury evidence To the Royal Commission on Broadcasting, demonstrated that not all Crown advisers had a firm understanding of the technical issues, recalling the experience of Hughes, 110 years earlier.

(7.19 Interestingly according to the 1986 Census, the proportion of workers of Maori descent in the occupational group ‘Electrical fitters and related electrical and electronics workers’ was 2.6 per cent of their fulltime labour force. The proportion of all New Zealanders was 2.4 per cent. For whatever reason, the Maori appears to be as active in the radio related occupations as non-Maoris.(11))

7.20 So the British Crown has no special claim to the development of the scientific understanding of the radio frequency spectrum. The waves were first discovered by a German, Hertz, and commercially developed by an Italian, Marconi. Many other nationalities, not least Americans, have been involved in the development of that understanding. Where appropriate they have been rewarded by a copyright or patent, and there is no intention by the Maori (or the Crown) to resile on those.

The Crown Claim

8.1 At the time of writing there is hardly any documentation of the Crown claim to the radio frequency spectrum. It is therefore difficult to respond to the alternative to the Maori claim.

8.2. One statement made by a Crown negotiator is not only to deny Maori claims to the property rights of the radio frequency spectrum, but to claim that nobody owns it. If this is a metaphysical statement about ownership of intangibles, including of other resources, then so be it. But the fact of the matter is that there are, and will be extended by the proposed legislation, property rights to the spectrum. In economic, commercial and legal parlance, these property rights where transferable are ‘owned’. It is these which the Maori claim is about.

8.3 The alternative to ownership by the Maori or the Crown would be some collective ownership of the rights. But if so the Crown could hardly claim (as it does in the introduction to the Radiocommunications Bill) that it is vesting these rights in the Crown, or (as occurs in the Bill) the receipts of the funds from the sale of the rights goes to the Crown, without admitting it” is expropriating the collective ownership.(12)

8.4. The Crown negotiators also presented a paper which showed that the New Zealand Government was direct in lineal and legal descent from the non-Maori signatory of the Treaty and so can claim the right to make laws as under the Treaty’s Kawanatanga provision.

8.5 The right of the Crown to legislate is not the same thing as acknowledging the right of the Crown to expropriate without compensation. Admittedly the New Zealand parliament has done this in the past -more often than this Pakeha cares to remember. But each confiscation, whether it be legal or not, has been outside the spirit of the Treaty of Waitangi and has lead to grievances which a century later still have to be remedied. It is unlikely that the Crown wishes to go down this path in the Radiocommunications Act 1989.

(8.6. While there has been no official condemnation by the Maori of the proposed management regime, some Maori have expressed to me their grave reservations as to what they see as the permanent alienation of the property rights of the radio frequency spectrum resource. Their doubts arise from their experiences as landlords locked into leases in perpetuity, and the difficulties which have arisen over the fishing quota. That the entitlements revert to the Crown after 20 years is not seen as compelling, because the period is long enough and the opportunities for changed arrangements sufficient to mean that practically the entitlements are in perpetuity.)

8.7 In summary one can but speculate on the basis of the Crown claim. There may well be arguments yet to be presented. But a test must be if the radio frequency spectrum were land would the Crown case be convincing?

8.8 Ultimately the Crown must face that crucial phrase in the second article of the Treaty uses two small words which have a very major significance. In “tino rangatiratanga o o taonga katoa”, tino means something like “total” and “katoa” means “all”. Together they mean that the benefit of the doubt over property rights must be given to the Maori.

Summary and Towards a Policy Conclusion

9.1 The Maori has made a case for their Rangatiratanga and ownership of the radio frequency spectrum under the second article of Treaty of Waitangi. At the very least it is a strong prima facie case, which deserves the closest scrutiny.

9.2 The Crown has not yet presented as comprehensive case. Most of the potential arguments that they have presented, or have been explored here, are far from compelling. Until more convincing ones are developed, and the relative merits of the two cases are deliberated upon by a judicial body, the interim decision must favour the Maori case.

9.3 It may be possible to assess some of the consequences of the Crown’s acknowledgement of rangatiratanga of the Maori in respect to the radio frequency spectrum, and the provision of the explicit vesting of the property rights in the spectrum in the Maori, by referring to traditional practices of the Rangatira.(13) The Rangatira of today is as concerned with the enhancement of mana and the protection of taonga as were the Rangatira who signed the Treaty of Waitangi.

9.4 Following the full recognition of their rangatiratanga over the spectrum, the Maori people would then have to decide whether they should manage the spectrum themselves or whether they should commission the Crown to manage it on their behalf (or perhaps jointly), or whether they should make a gift (koha) of it, in whole or part.

9.5 I should not be surprised that after reserving part of the spectrum for their own use -perhaps one television network and two radio networks(14) – the Maori would gift the remainder to the Crown. One of the feature of the Rangatira is generosity -the greater the generosity the greater the Rangatira.

9.6 Such a very generous gift would place a very great obligation (utu) upon the recipient to respond with an equally generous gift. The value of the radio frequency spectrum to the people of New Zealand is great that it is difficult to conceive of an equivalent gift in return. How do we value that which enables Search and Rescue to save lives at one extreme, and which gives kids the pleasure of radio-controlled cars at the other?

9.7 I believe a suitable reciprocal gift would be for the Crown to enable the Maori to establish their own national Maori Broadcasting System by granting the necessary funds. Other than, remedying some of the land and other resource grievances of the past – which the Crown is already committed to do – there is perhaps no greater contribution to the viability and vitality of Maoritanga than providing it with the most powerful twentieth century means of preserving and promoting Maori language and culture.

9.8 Of course the Rangatiratanga associated with the gift of the spectrum would not be transferred. The Crown would be duty bound to consult with the Maori if there were any further proposed major change in the usage or ownership of the radio frequency spectrum. A koha might also be appropriate in exceptional circumstances.

9.9 To the Western mind this process of exchange may appear to be no more than a complicated way for the Maori to trade their property rights in the spectrum for the funds to set up a Maori Broadcasting System. However, as we have seen, the ‘rangatiratanga’ mentioned in the second article of the Treaty is a wider concept than ,’ownership’, and the ‘taonga’ covers more than just ‘resources’. The Maori process of exchange is much more in keeping with the letter and the spirit of the Treaty of Waitangi.

Endnotes
1. The expression “Western” is intended to contrast with Maori. However the Western intellectual, tradition is wide, as are the legal foundations. Where there is ambiguity the mainstream English part of that Western tradition is being used.
2. Posner (1986) mentions the distinction between de facto or informal property rights and de jure or formal property rights. The sum of the two are economists’ property rights, but he confines (as we do) the term ‘property rights’ to the latter use only. (p 41)
3. So does the government commissioned report by John Fountain (1988).
4. This assertion need not lead to the conclusion that the Radio Frequency Spectrum is one of the taonga being referred to in the Treaty of Waitangi.
5. A version is quoted in the Ngati Awa submission to the Select Committee on the Radio Communications Bill.
6. Quoted in Waitangi Tribunal (1988) p.179.
7. On a personal note while I have read that Maori is essentially an oral culture, and can see this is true in a historical sense, I have been forcefully reminded of the point while working with the Maori as a consultant. Some of their strongest and most vivid arguments are not on the written record; part 0£ my task is to record them. I make no judgement of the relative merits oral in comparison to written cultures. Indeed there are interesting remnants left in Pakeha culture. I suspect one of the reasons why Maori have such confidence in the courts, arises not only from the better deal they have received from them in recent years in comparison, to the written culture of bureaucratic negotiation, but the court room is essentially an oral culture in its own right.
8. In this respect the nineteenth century European lead the Chicago School economist, who also has grave doubts about the efficiency of collective ownership. This is an academic issue to be pursed elsewhere, but in my view the case against collective ownership is often based upon a misrepresentation of how collective ownership functioned.
9. Since different Maori might have entitlements of access to the same resource at different times of the year.
10 “yield” is written above a crossed out “concede”.
11. Other occupations may also be relevant, but are not identifiable from the published data.
12. A means of avoiding the expropriation claim if the Crown really believed in collective ownership of -the spectrum, would be to give the proceeds from the sale of spectrum property rights to some collective agency such as the Broadcasting Commission.
13. Firth’s chapter “The Exchange of Gifts” is particularly valuable for providing insights to the behaviour of Rangatira.
14. I take it that the Maori would be mindful of the implicit private property rights built up over time – as it is with land – and would not disturb existing frequency users by taking up their frequencies for Maori use.

References
Biggs, B. (1989) “Humpty-Dumpty and the Treaty of Waitangi”, in Kawharu (1989).
Coleman. J. N. (1865) A Memoir of Rev. Richard Davis. London.
Grey. G, ( 1854) Nga i Mahi A Nga Tupuna 4th Edition ( 1971). Reed. Wellington.
Grey, G. (1855) Polynesian Mythology. being the English Translation of Grey ( 1854). Illustrated New Zealand Edition ( 1956). Whitcombe & Tombs, Christchurch,
Firth, R. (1973) Economics of the New Zealand Maori, Government Printer, Wellington. (Reprint of Second Edition)
Kawharu, I.H. (ed) (1989) Waitangi: Maori and Pakeha Perspectives on the Treaty of Waitangi, Oxford University Press, Auckland.
Mason, P. (1981) The Light Fantastic, Penguin, Melbourne.
Orange, C. (1987) The Treaty of Waitangi, Allen & Unwin, Wellington.
Posner, R.A. (1986) Economic Analysis of Law, Little Brown & Co, Boston. (Third Edition)
Ross, R. ( 1972) “Te Tiriti o Waitangi”, New Zealand Journal of History. p.129-157.
Smith, N. (1936) Native Law and Custom, Maori Purposes Fund Board, Wellington.
Waitangi Tribunal, Report on the Orakei Claim, (Wai-9), Wellington.
Walker R. ( 1990) Ka Whawhai Tonu Matou: Struggle Without End, Penguin, Auckland
Wakem, B.A. (1989) Evidence to the High Court C.P. NO. 942/88, Wellington.

Note: Section 7 is based on a working paper prepared by the author entitled “The Time Line: The Maori and Broadcasting”.

Disputing Figures

Listener: 11 June, 1990

Keywords: Statistics;

A Treasury working paper, released under the Official Information Act, appeared to indicate that government expenditure was out of control. It said that between 1984-85 and 1988-89 ‘net expenditure at 1989/90 prices’ had grown from $23,594 million to $27 ,877 million. That is an increase of 18.1 percent, or 4.3 percent a year, while the economy grew annually in volume terms only 0.4 percent.

Obviously social security spending had gone up dramatically because of unemployment, and debt servicing had gone up because of higher interest rates and burgeoning debt. But the Treasury paper seemed to say that real government expenditure on both hospitals and schools had gone up 20.3 percent.

A good number of people would say immediately that they always knew Labour could not control government expenditure, and this was further evidence of its incompetence. One contribution came from Raglan MP Simon Upton, who focused on the data in a chapter in Rogernomics: Reshaping New Zealand’s Economy (published by the state-owned Government Printer for the private enterprise-promoting Centre for Independent Studies). Upton argued that one of the main reasons for New Zealand’s dismal economic performance was the failure of the Labour Government to keep to its planned (almost zero increase) spending targets.

Some Labour politicians leapt at the figures with equal alacrity, although reaching the opposite conclusion. The big increases showed that the Government really cared, and that it was committed to the welfare state. When the Government began heavily cutting the welfare budget, they argued that these cuts – of five percent in the case of the health budget – had to be set against the huge expenditure increases already made. (Indeed, one may wonder whether the Treasury figures had the effect of convincing cabinet members that they bad been over-generous, easing any pain they must have felt from accepting severe expenditure cuts to their portfolios. Subsequent statements by the Ministers of Education and Health suggest this may be true.)

Now the reader may be a bit puzzled about where the extra money went. If you worked in the education and health sector, or were a client of either, you probably do not remember any blowout of munificence between 1984-85 and 1988-89. You are more likely to remember severe restraint under rising demand pressures.

My suspicions of the figures came from examining the volume of output figures published by the Government Statistician. He estimated a decrease for general government services of three percent. Now the official figure covers slightly different spending in comparison with the Treasury figure, but there is no way that the two figures can be reconciled.

So I looked at the Treasury figures and I was amazed by how crude the adjustments were. They merely compared (deflated) the amounts spent in nominal (ie, current price) terms with the consumer price index (CPI).

It makes no economic sense to use the CPI to deflate government spending. Every bundle of spending is different, and the prices that apply to make up its nominal value all change differently; every spending group requires its own price index. The CPI is designed for measuring consumer spending. It would be a poor indicator of price changes for exports, imports, investment or government spending. Each needs its own specific price deflator, and the Department of Statistics goes to a lot of trouble to construct them. Using the CPI to deflate government spending is about as sensible as using the price of carrots.

This was especially true over the period 1984-85 to 1988-89, because the Government changed the spending rules dramatically. Departments suddenly found themselves paying fringe benefit tax, GST, income taxes on social security, rents for their buildings, superannuation for their workers, rates, higher interest rates, charges for other departments and so on. These were transfers within government spending, or between spending and revenue. They are not reflected in the CPI, so it is a totally invalid deflator. (The Treasury official did adjust for GST, but for none of the other changes.)

As it happens, the area health boards could not believe the Treasury figure either. They commissioned a consultant, Guy Scott, to do the job properly for their component of government spending. This is easier than for many other items because there is a specifically designed hospital cost index, although changes in coverage confuse the story. Scott’s paper has now been released. It reports that funding to hospitals increased by 2.9 percent, not the 20.3 percent the Treasury paper would have us believe. Population rose 2.1 percent over the period, so per capita funding rose 0.2 percent per year (probably less than the additional demand pressures). That is all that the hospitals had left to purchase staff and supplies, maintain buildings and so on, after allowing for changes in the prices they faced.

Readers in the hospital sector, either as workers or patients, will find that number much more credible than the Treasury figure. I suspect if Scott were asked to do the same job on the schools, he would find a similar minimal increase.

Little can be done to rectify the mischief that the faulty Treasury figures have done to the Labour Government’s social policy. But those who devise the next one would do well not to be overly dependent upon Treasury statistical advice.

Marks Of Change

Listener 28 May 1990.

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy;

The University of Sussex in Brighton, England, where I first taught, was deeply committed to the whole of the social sciences. In teaching, research and policy applications the staff believed in the importance of social sciences to social and personal understanding, and their contribution to building a better society. They partly summed this up in the phrase, “We are all marxists now.”

Many New Zealanders, even many who purport to having had a social science training, are likely to falloff their chairs at the thought. Of course, at Sussex there was a ring of irony in the phrase. Most of the social scientists were of a classical liberal strain – more likely to send their children to a private school than mount the barricades. The most notable advocate of the view was well known for picking on the most outspoken marxists in his graduate class and persistently challenging their views.

But the phrase contained a fundamental acknow]edgement that Karl Marx was a great – (the greatest?) – 19th century social scientist. and that welltrained 20th-century social scientists had to think through carefuny their position in relation to Marx – more so than for any other social thinker.

Note that I described Marx as a social scientist, not an economist, or sociologist, or political scientist, or historian, or social philosopher, or economic and social policy advocate, He was all of these; he saw that you could not be one to the exclusion of others – you could not be a good one without being them all.

I was reminded of this in my recent visit to Central Europe. Economists there had a much wider perspective than their New Zealand counterparts, easily and – as far as I could judge – knowledgeably linking pure economics to related social issues. Our economics graduates are likely to have done some accounting or mathematics in their degrees, but have had little to do with other social sciences. European economists’ wider perspective showed the benefit of their having struggled through marxist studies.

Assuredly it is a struggle. I have sat in a class trying to make sense of a passage from Marx while the teachers have checked the original German to see if that helped. Marx is steeped in the philosophy of continental Europe, whereas I and most economists are Anglo-American trained. Coming to terms with Marx forced me to become more aware of the continental part of my European intellectual heritage.

For instance, what is one to make of Marx’s “last thesis on Feuerbach”: “the philosophers have only interpreted the world; the point is to change it”, I’ve pondered on this for hours, coming up with a whole variety of interpretations. It challenges my complacent feeling that all that is required of me is to understand the world better.

My favourite Marx is not “the Communist Manifesto” (great polemic as it is), nor Das Kapital which an economist finds difficult because it is using an economic methodology which was superseded shortly after Marx’s death. I like best his 1844 Manuscripts, for here is the passion of a young man, turning his intellectual powers to the agonies of industrialisation which Europe was experiencing. Much of the text has a lyrical – even spiritual – quality. Marxism need not be godless; as numerous Christian-Marxists testify.

But most people have not studied marxism. Their view is set by what happened in Russia, when a particular type of marxism came to power. We may debate whether Marxist-Leninism is really as Marx intended. My view is that the Soviet Union placed on marxism a distinctive interpretation, reflecting its historical and geographical situation. Unfortunately, because of the geo-political significance of that country, the Soviet account is often treated as the only true marxism by those who have not studied Marx. But there are other marxist paths, just as there are numerous interpretations of the christian message.

For instance Austro-Marxism – which evolved in the first part of this century in Vienna – was described by one of my teachers, the eminent marxist scholar Tom Bottomore, as “revealing the possibilities that are still to be found in marxist social science as an instrument of human liberation and of the rational humane ordering of social life”. Ironically the Austro-Marxists were put down by a combination of fascists and Marxist-Leninists in the 1930s.

Indeed the Karl Marx of the 1844 manuscripts would have been deeply disturbed by some of the things the Soviet Union did in his name. (Jesus Christ must have similar feelings about his name being used to justify similar unseemly actions.) Certainly, such events have limited marxist contribution in the public debate, because it is easier to tar all marxism with the extremes carried out in the name of Marxist-Leninism, rather than directly tackle the challenge that Marx presents.

That is why perestroika is also liberating marxism. What will happen to its Marxist-Leninist sect may be conjectured. But CentraJ European social scientists, among others, are not going to abandon the positive things they learned from studying Marx. We may be confident that as the political domination of Marxist-Leninism recedes there will be a flowering of marxist scholarship and understanding of society, which will generate changes – benefiting us all in the long run.

The Green Maori

Listener 14 May 1990.

Keywords: Environment & Resources; Maori; Political Economy & History;

THE PAKEHA asked the Maori, “Do you claim all the airspace?”

“We claim rangatiratanga of all the space between Papa and Rangi,”

“Even that which the Russian sputniks go through?”

“Yes, The Maori recognise no boundaries. Even for the realm of Tangaroa. Perhaps if the Maori had been negotiating the Law of the Sea, the outcome would have been different.”

The Pakeha looked at the Maori with amazement, concluding if I judge his expression right, that the rangatira – despite his American PhD – was not quite with it. The claim over expanses over which the Maori had no statutory authority and no means of policing seemed ludicrous.

The very same week the New Zealand Government signed an international declaration which prohibited driftnet fishing in waters well outside our 320km limit and far beyond any realm our navy could plausibly police, Yet no one, Pakeha or Maori, concluded the agreement was ludicrous or the Prime Minister who sponsored it – and also has an American doctorate – was not quite with it.

Late last year I was commissioned by a Maori group to, in effect, listen to the Maori account of the world and translate it into a European one, It was not an easy task, and I may well have made mistakes, Yet it is an issue of such great importance that I should share my experiences,

The crucial word in the sequence I just reported was “rangatiratanga”, It is not actually a traditional Maori word, but was created by the European and used in the second article of the Treaty of Waitangi, which reserves the “tino rangatiratanga o o ratou wenua o ratou kainga me o ratou taonga katoa” to the Maori signatories. (The phrase is usually translated into English as “total chieftainship over all their lands, villages and treasures”.) What rangatiratanga means is not at all obvious. To answer this I read about pre-European Maori approaches to the possession of property, I was immediately struck by the realisation that you had to think about the issue in quite a different way from that taught me in my training in European economics. It appears that there was some private property in classical Maoridom, but it was not common, (A crucial assumption seems to have been that possession involved usage, That is not true in our society, for one may own things that are never used or even visited.)

Typically, property was held in some collective way on behalf of some greater entity – the tribe. Moreover, it was not merely the current members who were relevant, The past (ie, dead) had rights. as did the future, Initially, I was confused by the notion of the dead having rights over the present, but I recalled that it is possible to bequest to a trust committed to following the dead person’s directions, The rights of the future I find easier to think about. for I often ask myself on public issue. what my unborn grandchildren might think.

In the traditional Maori practice then, a chief did not own the property over which he claimed rangatiratanga. The true story I told at the beginning tells us a little about the Maori claim, The rangatira was clearly not saying that he owned the space through which sputniks flew, nor that he would, or could, stop the use of that space for a reasonable purpose, What I think he was saying was that the Maori community had a collective responsibility for the proper use of that space – of every space and resource.

To which I can hear the environmentalist say, “Haven’t we all?” After that he or she may say, “While you may own that thing [say, a native tree] you have no unlimited right to misuse it.” Exactly The Maori, like the greenie, sees the universe holistically. with no boundaries. In this secular age that is what we mean by “spirituality”, I think.

In that way both the greenie and the Maori see themselves as trustees of all the treasured possessions. The treaty underlines this Maori entitlement.

But we all claim trusteeship. We think the Crown is a legal fiction by which we hold trusteeship over all manner of property: the telecommunications system, the electricity system, the broadcasting system, the “Queen’s chain”, and so on. To our horror, recently the Crown has denied this proposition. claiming to be owner, with the power to sell the asset off. A trustee would have no such simple power. That is why the issue of privatisation involves such deep emotions, and the two main political parties keep making contradictory statements about it.

The Maori has been caught in the turmoil, for they have been endowed with special trusteeship responsibilities. Inconveniently for the Crown steamroller, the treaty gives them specific ownership rights too.

The logic of the Government’s economic position is that all trusteeship should be replaced by private ownership. But I am glad it joined in the banning of driftnet fishing.

After the Party Was over

Listener:  30 April, 1990

Keywords: Business & Finance; Political Economy and History;

(When I was teaching political studies in the late 1990s, I found students who did not know who Rob Muldoon or David Lange were. Younger readers may need to know Geoffrey Palmer was Prime Minister or Deputy Prime Minister during Labour’s privatisation program; Richard Prebble was Minister of State Owned Enterprises; Ruth Dyson was President of the Labour Party.)

It must have been quite a party. The taller, slumped in the armchair, tried to stand up, but the room was hit by an earthquake, which stopped the moment he slumped back.

‘Let’s go over it once again, Richard, why did we do it?’

The shorter, flat on the couch, tried to open an eye. ‘Do what, Geoff?’

‘Privatise. Privatise everything. As I recall.’ He winced, for the memory of the previous night still hurt. ‘As I recall, our party was against it. We said so in the election manifesto.’ He winced again. ‘We even said we would stop the others from doing it.’

Pri-va-tise,’ the prone figure tested each syllable. Yes, he could still say it. ‘We certainly stopped the other buggers.’

‘Because we did it ourselves. Was that the reason?’

I don’t think so.’ They lapsed into silence.

‘Someone told me, Richard, that privatised firms were more efficient than public ones.’

That wasn’t it. When the economists went through the research they found the evidence mixed. Some shows that private sector firms are more efficient, some that public sector firms are, some that, properly managed, they are about the same. Only an ideologue would conclude that privatisation always leads to improved economic efficiency.

‘I’m not. I’m an administrator. I set up committees.’

There is even strong reason to believe that some of the firms we privatised – monopolies like Telecom and Electricorp – will be less efficient in the private sector. They pack their costs to return themselves a higher profit.’ Richard wanted to give Geoffrey a quick wink, but thought it better to keep his eyes shut. ‘Anyway the whole point of corporatisation was to get the state-owned enterprises as efficient – or as inefficient – as the private sector. We told everybody that.

Geoffrey had a sudden urge to stand on his feet and give his ‘corporatisation speech’. He found he could still stop the earthquake by sitting back in his chair. Silence. ‘Richard, what about the balance sheet argument.’

You mean selling assets to reduce outstanding liabilities. Didn’t Rod Deane say …?

‘He was one of us, wasn’t he?’

You’re right tootin’. He said the real gains. ..do not relate to balance sheet effects accruing from the sale of assets. I don’t know of any economist who supported the balance sheet argument.

‘You did, Richard.’

But I’m a lawyer.

‘So was I, so was I.’ There was another long silence. Geoffrey slumped further in the chair, with the vague idea he was contributing to national welfare by preventing earthquakes. ‘What about monitoring costs. That’s the theory that private business is better at overseeing the businesses.’

As a couple of Reserve Bankers wrote – they are for us too …

‘Have to be, after we gave them the Reserve Bank Act last year …’

‘The bankers said, “The monitoring ability of the New Zealand sharebroking community must be held in some doubt given its record prior to the sharemarket crash.”’ Richard tried to sit up, but the ceiling suddenly descended, cracking his head. Prone, be added, ‘But we got a good price.

‘Did we? I thought those bankers also wrote something about when there were few bidders “it should not be automatically presumed that the highest bid necessarily represents good value for the government.” Some assets seem to have gone for a song.’ The tune of ‘Baubles, Bangles and Beads’ joined the cacophony in the sitter’s head.

We got a good price for Postbank.

‘Probably, but Allan Hawkins, of Equiticorp, wrote about his purchase of New Zealand Steel, “we could see in accounting terms it was a good deal. [It] gave massive tax advantages. There was no way we could assess the steel plant as a manufacturing operation because none of us had any experience at all of the industry.”

We put him in charge of the New Zealand steel industry?

‘We’re in court about it, and about the DFC too.’

Should be a good show.

‘I’m afraid, Richard, that we will be there as defendants or witnesses, not as highly paid performing lawyers, like we were in Parliament.’

Silenced, the prone one opened half an eye. ‘You know, the numbers of baIlsups associated with the various sales is extraordinary.

‘You were always in too great a hurry, Richard. Mrs Thatcher took years, while you took the same number of months.’

Your committees wouldn’t have helped. A lot of people made good money out of the sales. Like the merchant bankers, who earned millions from advice and financing fees.

‘Not to mention the firms who got the assets cheap. Or the sharebrokers who had more shares to trade in a depleted sharemarket.’

Is that why we privatised? As a sort of subsidy to assist the financial sector after the sharemarket debacle? I know that in principle the Government opposed subsidising industry , but the financial sector were good friends, and the success of our economic strategy depended upon their health.’

‘1 don’t know, Richard, I don’t know.’

There appeared to be a pounding on the door. Nurse Dyson tiptoed in. ‘Glass of water, aspirin?’

The prone figure announced, ‘More of the hair of the dog that bit me, thanks.

‘But there is nothing left.’

At the next party I’m selling schools, hospitals, roads, Parliament, the frigates.

For Whom the Treaty Tolls

Listener 5 February, 1990.

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Maori; Political Economy & History;<

Across the bay from the great Waitangi Marae is the picturesque town of Russell. A hundred and fIfty years ago Kororareka, as it was then, housed “the scum of the Pacific”: ruffians, rogues, and ratbags from Europe, prone to drunkenness, violence and turmoil. If Thomas Hobbes had been at the .signing of the Treaty of Waitangi, he would have looked at the unrest across the water and given a knowing smile.

Hobbes (1588-1679) had lived through the turbulence of the English civil war. Dismayed at the civil unrest he wrote Leviathan, which argued that a sovereign was needed to govern in return for the security of civil society. Hobbes was not the first to suggest the notion of a “social contract” whereby individuals collectively agreed to have a ruler to ensure civil peace -that was probably a Greek – but he was one of the first great codifiers.

Others followed. John Locke (1632-1704), concerned with the Glorious Revolution of 1688, wrote Civil Government in which he argued that the ruler of a state is one party to a contract with those over whom he or she rules. If rulers break the contract by not serving the good end of society they may be deposed. Jean-Jacques Rousseau (171278), who had earlier written of the noble savage (some thought the classical Maori was an example), wrote Contrat Social, further refining the idea.

It is unlikely that those who devised the Treaty of Waitangi had the notion of a social contract uppermost in their minds.* But it is likely in the England they grew up in that ideas of such an arrangement were sufficiently widely known for the designers of the treaty to fall back on the concept, particularly given the unruliness across the bay.

What would be put in such a social contract-based treaty? A simple one would have just two articles. The first would give some institution (the crown) the powers, duties and obligation of government. The second would ensure that the maximum of personal (and property) rights were retained by the signatories. Locke and Rousseau insisted that only the necessary minimum of powers was transferred to the ruler.

The Treaty of Waitangi almost perfectly fits this description. Article one, the “kawanatanga” article, appoints the British crown to govern the country. Article two, the “rangatiratanga” article, has the government agreeing that the Maori signatories would retain their property and chieftainship rights, which could only voluntarily be alienated.

European theory assumed that the social contract is an unwritten document, unlike the tangible (albeit rat-eaten and water-soaked) treaty between the Maori and their government. However, there may be various documents pertinent to the intangible ones. For instance the English have Magna Carta, the 1689 Bill of Rights, and their common law.

It is this intangible, but supplemented, English social contract which made necessary the third article of the treaty: the “tikanga” provision says that the Maori signatories would have the same rights and duties as the people of England. So Maori have the written social contract of the Treaty of Waitangi, and the unwritten one from the British constitutional tradition.

But the tikanga article is reflexive: if Maori have the same fundamental rights as other New Zealanders, then other New Zealanders have the same rights as Maori. The third article means that any social contract in the treaty is for all New Zealanders and not just the Maori. Unlike their ancestors and foreign cousins, nonMaori New Zealanders also have a written social contract.

The crucial rights for the individual are in article two. This needs to be interpreted with care. The treaty says that the property rights the Maori had before its signing were retained after, and the government was not to alienate them without Maori consent. That is equally true for the Europeans, although few had property rights in New Zealand at that time. But the principle of sanctity of property rights is one that can be derived from the European unwritten social contract. The second article also says that Maori retained their chieftainship. Interpreting that to encompass Pakeha notions of personal dignity and of human rights, again the principle is integral in the unwritten social contract.

Thus when the government of New Zealand unjustly alienated Maori property rights without fair compensation, it set a precedent for doing the same to others’ property rights. When it abrogated the civil rights and dignity of the Maori, and violated the integrity of their culture, it prepared to do the same to any other minority – and every one of us is a minority.

By overriding the rights the social contract gave to one group in the community, the government threatened to override the totality of the social contract, and the rights of every group and tndividual. That is why it is so vital that we should honour the Treaty of Waitangi, and remedy the grievances which have arisen from the past dishonouring – in the words of John Donne. ..

“No man is an Island, entire of itself.”
“Any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in Mankind; And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

* We now know James Busby probably had a social contract in mind, and I am inclined to the view that Henry Williams had one too, albeit of from the religious rather than political tradition. Was there a Treaty of Waitangi? Was it a Social Contract?

Liberalization Sequencing: the New Zealand Case

Journal of Economic Growth Volume 4, No 1, Winter 1989-90, p.14-18.

Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Macroeconomics & Money;

The economy of New Zealand first .surged forward under the Labour government, with registered unemployment falling from around 64 thousand at the time the new government took office in July 1984 to about 50 thousand a year later. As the restructuring took effect and firms dependent upon subsidies closed down, unemployment began to increase. By the end of 1989 it was close to 150 thousand with little prospect of significant reductions.

In fact, despite the glowing reports from those on flying visits who are impressed by the record of market liberalization, New Zealand’s economic performance has been disastrous in the latter half of the 1980s, with an average annual growth rate of one percent between 1984 and 1989. This is less than the population growth, itself depleted by migration of New Zealand workers to the more prosperous Australia. This weak performance has occurred while New Zealand’s markets have been expanding and there has been a strong world demand for most of New Zealand’s exports.

The violence and rapidity of restructuring was such that there ought to have been a sharp contraction as the measures took effect. A substantial dumping of labor from low-productivity, high-protection industries was inevitable. But that phase should have been followed by a growth recovery, as high-productivity firms, liberated from the shackles of intervention, took on the redundant labor as they exploited market opportunities. There is no indication that such a recovery will take place, and the most favorable forecasts project a long-term growth rate not unlike that of he past, although it would be from a lower base due to the stagnation of the 1980s.

It would be easy to argue that the market liberalization of the New Zealand economy has been a disaster and to advise other countries against pursuing such policies. In the near future, no doubt, New Zealand will receive visitors who will look at the record of unemployment and stagnation and will draw such a conclusion. In my view, it is premature to adopt this diagnosis for two reasons.

First, case studies of individual market liberalization at the microeconomic level are quite consistent with the results claimed by the more moderate advocates of these policies. Even in New Zealand in terms of entrepreneurial initiative, new products, technological innovation and better consumer quality and choice, the liberalized market has far exceeded anything the controlled market could ever have achieved. Second, there are more plausible alternative explanations as to what went wrong.

The Exchange Rate

The exchange rate has played a significant role in the recent poor economic performance. The strategy of market liberalization centered on growth through the tradeable sector, by promoting exports and competing against imports. The stripping away of protection removed the cost burden of protected but low-productivity industries and released resources for the growth of progressive firms.

But growth in the tradeable sector requires favorable prices. While firms may enhance their productivity, if the price signals are not profitable there is no incentive to produce, let alone to invest and expand. Since a small economy like New Zealand’s has very little influence on international prices, the profitability of the export sector is dependent on the exchange rate.

It was generally recognized in July 1984 that New Zealand’s exchange rate was substantially overvalued and would be even more so if border protection and export assistance were removed. The incoming government was advised by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that a sizeable devaluation was required. Events overtook this advice when a run on the currency forced a devaluation of 20 percent in July 1984. New Zealand had a fixed exchange rate at that time, and the run depleted official reserves.

In March 1985 the government of New Zealand moved to a floating exchange rate, following the abandonment of capital controls in December 1984. Many countries have floating exchange rates, but usually an official agency, such as the Reserve Bank, regularly enters the exchange market to buy and sell currency in order to push the rate in some preferred direction. The New Zealand government does not; it confines foreign exchange purchases to its currency needs. Thus the float is of a very pure form, with a minimum of government intervention.

As predicted in the theoretical literature and by experience gained elsewhere, the exchange rate moved up shortly after the float was introduced. The technical term is “overshooting,” and the exchange rate has remained overvalued ever since that time. Between 1984 and 1989, producer prices rose by 51.2 percent, compared to 18.7 percent within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). New Zealand’s exchange rate should have fallen 21.5 percent {the difference between the two increases) against its trading partners, to compensate for the loss of competitiveness. In fact, the trade-weighted exchange index fell 19.5 percent, roughly the same amount as the inflation differential.

It should be recalled that in June 1984, the exchange rate was considered by all informed observers to be substantially overvalued. Since that time, all export assistance and many border protection measures have been removed. The exchange rate remains highly overvalued, as it has been for the past four years. In practical terms, this means that firms in the tradeable sector face an enormous profitability hurdle, particularly because gains from increased productivity and reduced costs from the elimination of protection are already incorporated in the price index.

In the past five years, there appears to have been a significant reduction in the government deficit, although not as much as the crude indicators suggest. Similarly, there appears to be much tighter monetary control as market interest rates have risen in real terms. This has made the control of government spending more difficult.

Monetary policy has been credited with reducing the rate of inflation. Again the indicators are difficult to interpret, but there can be no doubt that in the past two years consumer inflation has fallen from the double-digit rates of the 19705 to a level close to the OECD average.

The main mechanism for reducing the inflation rate has been low import prices, resulting from the overvalued exchange rate. By keeping interest rates high, monetary authorities have attracted overseas capital, which in turn hiked the exchange rate. Overvaluing exchange rates to hold down the rate of inflation is a well-known strategy in the Third World , particularly as cheaper consumer imports favor the restless urban masses and those with secure jobs in the non-tradeable sector. The cost is unprofitability in the tradeable sector.

The lesson to be learned is that successful market liberalization aimed at growth through an expanded tradeable sector requires a realistic exchange rate. Leaving the foreign exchange market to itself during a transition, when there is so much turbulence in other markets, is unlikely to succeed. The resulting overshot and overvalued exchange rate can destroy all the gains achieved by the market liberalization program.

The Sequencing Issue

The problems that New Zealand has faced concerning its exchange rate policy reflect a general issue in market liberalization strategy known as “sequencing.” Since all liberalization changes cannot be made overnight, and since the speed of response to the measures will vary in different parts of the economy, what is the best order, or sequence, in which to carry out liberalization?

The literature discusses the sequencing issue most fully with respect to the foreign exchange markets, particularly using the Latin American experience. In simple terms, the question is the following: when should the capital account be liberalized relative to the current account? In other words, in what sequence should capital controls and border protection be removed? In New Zealand, capital controls were eliminated overnight while protection was gradually phased out. This sequence does not seem to have been successful, partly because product markets respond much more slowly than financial markets.

But the sequencing issue is not confined to the external account. Notable in the New Zealand case has been the sequencing of regulations concerning financial and corporate markets. The strategy was to abandon the traditional controls on financial activity as quickly as possible, but that meant that a new framework, including the development of revised accounting standards and shareholder information and control, could not be put into place in time.

In addition, the one failure of the tax reform has been the biased taxation of investor income. New Zealand still has no capital-gains tax, but the taxation of other investment is at a relatively high rate because there is no exemption for the inflation component of interest payments. Different tax treatment for different types of investment income encourages investors to invest for capital gains in financial speculation and property.

The result was a wild speculation boom which ended with a shattering bust in October 1987, when the New Zealand stock market collapsed further than any other in the West. Two years later, the indices are at half the level of their 1987 peak. Some of New Zealand’s largest investment and property companies have disappeared and billions of investor dollars have been lost.

Once again, the international literature and experience would warn that foreign exchange overshooting would be accompanied by a financial and construction boom, but little notice of the warning was taken during the liberalization process. The result may be a setback of more than a decade for investor confidence in the integrity of New Zealand’s financial system with a corresponding disastrous result for investment and economic growth.

The justification for the rapid market liberalization with little regard to the sequence was that attempts at orderly liberalization in the late 1970s and early 1980s had been thwarted by the political pressures of affected interest groups. They were put off course by the need to institute compensating interventions or to address some economic crisis where intervention seemed to be the easy solution. The notion of a “temporary intervention ” is practically an oxymoron.

Conclusion

Most New Zealand economists would still support the direction of market liberalization of the late 1980s and applaud the courage of the government that undertook the program. However, they would add one or two major caveats.

The first lesson is that if the strategy involves a greater role for the tradeable sector, the exchange rate must be favorable. No government can achieve perfection in adjusting the exchange rate, but that is no excuse to leave it to market forces when markets are in turmoil as the result of decreased intervention.

The balance between the methods of maintaining a favorable exchange rate, such as direct purchases and sales of foreign currency, relaxing foreign exchange controls and trade protection or the use of fiscal and monetary policy) will depend upon the circumstances of the country and the stage of liberalization it has reached. But the method must be subservient to the objective. If there is uncertainty concerning the correct exchange rate, the sensible strategy is to err on the side of underevaluation, since the aim is for the tradeable sector to absorb resources and expand.

Unfortunately, such a strategy may prolong the process of disinflation. There is no doubt that erratic high inflation is a serious handicap to the effectiveness of the market, but if the New Zealand experience is any guide, it is better to have double-digit inflation than double-digit overvaluation of the exchange rate.

The second lesson is to pay attention to sequencing, particularly in terms of the legal framework. The old legal system may have been quite adequate when government intervention was rife) but its inadequacies will be exposed as the government withdraws. We can learn much from New Zealand’s experience. The details of how to go about removing protection, regulating markets, reforming the tax system and improving the quality of government expenditure will be invaluable to others embarking on the same path. And the successes at the microeconomic level will encourage them to do so.

There is a danger that this experience will be used to point out the failure of market regulation, particularly as the evidence of the poor macroeconomic performance and the disaster in corporate markets become more widely known. But that is to miss the point. Few advocates of free markets would expect them to work well in the context of poor economic management and an unsatisfactory legal framework. The New Zealand experience supports the judgment of the majority.

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The Public Interest in Competition Policy

The Economics of the Commerce Act. Ed A. Bollard (NZIER Research Monograph 52, October 1989) Chapter 4, p.66-88.

Keywords: Business & Finance;

4.1 Introduction

The merger provisions of the Commerce Act 1986 contain a two stage test for refusal. Section 66 subsection 7 states that the Commerce Commission shall give clearance unless it is satisfied that the merger or takeover would result in any person acquiring a dominant position in a market or strengthening an already dominant position.

But the following subsection 8 provides for the clearance if despite the merger generating dominance, as set out in subsection 7, the outcome “would result or would be likely to result in a benefit to the public which would outweigh any detriment to the public” as a consequence of the dominance.

A similar provision appears with regard to anti-competitive trade practices, which may be authorised if the public benefit outweighs the lessening of competition.

This paper is about this public interest provision of the Act, particularly as it applies to mergers. Because in so few cases has it been necessary to apply the public interest test, it is not possible to give a comprehensive account of what it might mean. Rather this paper examines various public interest justifications which have been raised, in the light of economic theory and those few cases. It also considers what changes in procedures and consequential actions may be necessary.

One such common justification has been an increase in ‘efficiency’. As it has been argued that the Commerce Act should be dramatically restructured, to replace the Act’s objective of the promotion of competition with the promotion of efficiency, this wider issue is first considered.

4.2 The Meaning of ‘Efficiency’

In common parlance the expression ‘efficiency’ is a positive word with connotations of motherhood and apple pie. The Concise Oxford defines it as “the ratio of useful work performed to the total energy expended”. More popularly it refers to doing something in the best possible way. It is in strange circumstances, indeed, where someone announces that they are pursuing a matter inefficiently. However, in economics the term has a rather stricter meaning; complicated by different economists using different definitions.

There is a formal definition in economics of ‘Pareto efficiency’. A Pareto efficient improvement occurs where at least one person’s welfare is ~m~roved but no other people are made worse off as a consequence. Within a not too onerous value frame, such a move may be said to be beneficial: This applies irrespective of the individual beneficiary. For Instance It would still be Pareto efficient if the beneficiary was the richest person in the land, or the poorest; all that is required is that no-one else is worse off.

A situation from which no Pareto efficient moves are possible that is someone can be made better off only by making others worse off is described as ‘Pareto efficient’. All other things being equal, it would be better to be in a Pareto efficient situation than not to be, since in the latter case someone can be made better off.

This formal notion is not what is being referred to when the expression :economic efficiency’ is being used. This may seem a round about way of introducing the concept, but it is important to emphasize that two crucial features of Pareto efficiency do not apply to economic efficiency, even though the terms are sometimes confused. First, as we shall see, economic efficiency is not as rigorously defined, and may have a number of different meanings. Second, as we shall also see, it contains much stronger value judgements.

To illustrate the first point, consider these various recent quotations in relation to the interpretation or reform of the Commerce Act:

(1) “competition policy should have one clearly defined objective efficiency, defined as maximising consumer satisfaction ( consumer welfare) within resource and technological constraints” (Economic Development Commission, 1988).

(2) “The promotion of competition is a means to an end, rather than an end in itself. The benefit of rivalrous competitive behaviour is that it limits the abuse of market power so that economic efficiency is not compromised. Economic efficiency is concerned with the production of goods and services in a least cost manner and in the determination of what is produced in a manner such that a different combination of goods and services would not increase consumer welfare i.e: that goods and services are not “mispriced”… economic efficiency, that is production of goods and services in a least cost manner and the minimisation of the abuse of market power to raise prices or reduce output” (Southpac, 1988).

(3) “The [Act’s] objective should be stated in terms of economic efficiency (the efficient use of economic resources through market processes being central to the welfare of all citizens as consumers) …The efficiency of resource use is a valid objective of economic policy because resources are scarce relative to people’s demands for them. More output of one type of good can only be at the expense of a lower production of alternative outputs. …Economists use the concept of efficiency to evaluate the success with which an economic system combines scarce resources to satisfy competing wants. This criterion explicitly ignores the effect of different distributions on welfare. In terms of static analysis, efficiency has two dimensions: productive efficiency [and] … allocative efficiency… Efficiency has a further dynamic dimension: inter-temporal efficiency. The efficiency criterion can be reinterpreted in terms of minimising the sum of production and transaction costs in present value terms.” (Business Round Table, 1988)

(4) “According to mainstream economic theory, economic efficiency should be the rationale underlying competition law. The potential harm arising from a lack of competition in a market [leads to] additional resources required to satisfy a given level of consumer demand [which] involves a loss of allocative efficiency. The other type of efficiency which is important to competition economics is productive efficiency. Together, allocative and productive efficiency comprise total economic efficiency and determine the level of consumer welfare, i.e. the extent to which consumer demands are satisfied given a fixed level of resources (including technology).” (Jennings and Begg, 1988)

(5) “it would perhaps reduce confusion if the term ‘competition policy’ were discarded in favour of ‘efficiency policy’ since economic efficiency should be the sole rationale for this type of intervention.”(Kerr, 1988)

There are two salient features of these quotations. First, there is not a lot of consistency about the definition of efficiency, with sometimes two or more different concepts being used by the same writer(s). It is not surprising that no submission on Commerce Act reform actually recommended a legal definition of efficiency.

The second salient feature is that in each case the notion of ( economic) efficiency is presented as a concept that is supportable in its own right, and by implication value free. It is not.

It is beyond the scope. of this paper to reconstruct a rigorous economic definition of efficiency (Greer, 1989; Easton, 1989b). We shall take an increase in efficiency to mean an increase in national income for a given level of inputs. This increase may arise from what is described above as improvements in allocative and productive efficiency, and (if the time frame is important) inter-temporal and/or innovation efficiency (Greer, 1989). It can be shown that an increase in national income is equivalent to an increase in consumer welfare in the sense that the Economic Development Commission uses the term.

That the notion of economic efficiency is not value free is skirted in the above quotations. The Economic Development Commission refers to consumer welfare, but does not mention the multitude of consumers. We may ask what if some consumers are better off, and some consumers are worse off as a result of this change? Is that an improvement in efficiency? The answer is likely to be that if there is, those worse off could be compensated for the change, and still there are some better off, then there has been an increase in efficiency. But the compensation need not occur, so efficiency may increase but some consumers may be worse off, and there is no obvious, value free reason why this situation should be described as an improvement, without further consideration of the distributional implications.

The Business Round Table quotation is misleading when it states that “this criterion explicitly ignores the effect of different distributions of welfare” because it does not state what is the implicit assumption about the income distribution. This takes a little space to establish, but it can be shown that the implicit assumption is the extremist one which is unwilling to sacrifice any increase in national income for an increase in equality (Easton 1989b). That is the notion of (economic) efficiency as used above is not neutral towards the degree of income inequality; rather it positively discourages social goals of greater income equality, and income redistribution.

Sometimes the neglect of distributional issues is made by an appeal to ‘Hume’s Law’.

“that a dollar is a dollar. Hume’s law means that if two persons are bidding at an auction for a sea-side cottage and a poor homeless family is outbid by a wealthy family wishing to own a sea-side weekender, the result of the bidding is efficient. The house has been placed in the hands of the most dollar votes. The effect of Hume’s law is to divorce consideration of the allocation of resources from consideration of the distribution of wealth (or income).” (Williams, 1988)

There is an irony that the name of Hume should be associated with a principle which is so manifestly not a natural law. The doyen himself would perhaps have described it as a principle of conduct, and subjected its standing to a far more rigorous analysis than its users do today.

All this is enough to warn us that making efficiency the objective of competitions policy is a far from value free criterion. Those who propose it either have a set of values they are unwilling to reveal, at least as evidenced by the above quotations, or they have not properly understood the concept they are advocating.

As the scope of this paper is the public interest provisions of the existing Commerce Act, the question of whether its primary objective should be changed to efficiency will not be further pursued.

4.3 Efficiency as a Public Interest Concern

Suppose a merger ( or restrictive practice) has been found to cause or strengthen dominance (or lessen competition) in a market. Is there a case that the increase in efficiency from the action should be sufficiently in the public interest to justify authorization? To discuss this it is necessary to clear away some less controversial points.

First there is a small problem of terminology. The adjective ‘public’ can sometimes be used to mean ‘non-private’ and sometimes to mean ‘private and non-private’. In my view the Commerce Act probably means to include the private benefits to the firms involved in the totality of the ‘benefit to the public’. Because the Act requires a balancing of public detriment, this particular interpretation would give the same outcome as the alternative one which excludes the firm benefit and detriment. It is merely a matter of being clear as to the terminology. The broader one is used in this essay.

Second and obviously, any public benefit has to be measured in net, not gross terms, which means that account has to be made also of the public detriments.

The third point is that an economist would tend to argue that any claims for efficiency in the public interest imply there is no other reasonable or more competitive way of attaining the cost reductions. If there was, say via another suitor, then the public interest could be attained this way without the detriment of the lessening of competition. This suggests that the measure of the public benefit should be in comparison to the next best option, not to the pre-merger situation. This approach is not mentioned in the Commerce Act, but some of the Commission’s decisions have tended along this line.

Fourth, it is well to note that in actual practice estimates of the efficiency gains typically are crude, and may well be optimistic. Transition costs, in particular, are likely to be underestimated. The impression I have gained from the various cases in which I have been involved is that the business community gets involved in mergers (and restrictive practices) on the basis of hunch and strategic considerations as much as after careful cost accounting.

This results in a real practical problem for the Commission, if it wants quantitative estimates of any public benefits, because it requires procedures to evaluate the claims and counterclaims. Confidentiality and time pressures will add to the difficulty of determining the reliability of the estimates.

Fifth, and moving towards the main focus of this section, it is rare for a merger case before the Commission not to involve some increase in (production) efficiency, in that the applicants claim that they will be able to reduce costs, typically from rationalisation and/or economies of scale, following the merger .

Who benefits from these cost reductions will depend upon the market circumstances. Sometimes consumers will experience lower prices and/or better service; sometimes the producer will get a boost to profits. While in the situation where there is no lessening of competition the cost reductions are more likely to be more passed onto the direct consumer -relative to what would have happened if there had been no merger -that is not inevitable.

Thus while the circumstance where the public interest arises involves the possibility that all or most of the costs savings will be retained by the firm, this case by itself is not a particularly important one since consumers need not be worse off. What is at issue is the possibility that because of the acquired dominance the (direct) consumer will face a higher price and/ or inferior service relative to the pre-merger situation. That is, the merged firm will keep all the savings, and in addition will gain profits from charging higher prices.

Thus we have a tradeoff between a loss of direct consumer welfare and a gain in production efficiency. The application of the public benefit provisions of the Act cannot avoid such a tradeoff. It could be ignored .by focusing only on efficiency, but that would be an equivalent to a tradeoff in which the (direst) consumer interest is given zero weight.

It is not sufficient to argue that producers are consumers too. Even if there are no foreign shareholders (whose consumption welfare is outside the direct domain of New Zealand policy objectives) then the producer / consumers are likely to differ from the direct consumers. Sometimes there may be a close coincidence. A merger between exporting dairy factories in the same region may benefit the dairy farmer shareholders at the expense of the dairy farmer suppliers. But as the two groups are almost identical the issue is not acute. Such situations are rare.

More often the groups are much more separated. This was very evident in the merger involving the two Auckland milk suppliers, for the consumers were Auckland city households and the producers were South Auckland and Waikato dairy farmers. Similarly forestry company shareholders may be a tiny subset of the ultimate purchasers of the company products.

Practically then, efficiency as a public benefit generates a tradeoff between the return to the producer and the return to the suppliers and direct consumers. The Commission is given little guidance on how to balance their interests.

The extremes are fairly straightforward. The situation where the few producer/shareholders had substantially higher incomes than the many consumers and where the efficiency gains are small compared to the return the merged firm could generate from using its market dominance is likely to result in a ruling against the merger. The situation where the consumers and producers are on similar income levels, and where the efficiency gains are large compared to the gains from market abuse is likely to get more favour able consideration.

In practice most decisions will involve less clear comparisons. At this stage all the Commission might ask for is convincing estimates. of the relevant ratios. And all the public might ask for is some clarity and consistency in the Commission s reasoning.

This conclusion differs dramatically from that of Vautier who argues that

“public benefit should not require applicants to prove that potential public benefit is distributed to any particular group, e.g. consumers in a particular market. The more emphasis that is placed on the distribution of potential gains, as distinct from their realisation, the more political must be the decision making process.” (p62)

Arguing that the public benefit excludes distributional issues involves an odd view of the public benefit. Suppose the outcome was that all the gains, and then some, went to very rich shareholders domiciled overseas and who never visit New Zealand. Could it be seriously argued that this was in the “public benefit”? Vautier appears to be trying to confine “public benefit” to some notion of efficiency, which as we have reported involves a latent distributional assumption.

Thus the application of the public benefit test cannot avoid the question of distributional effects. If distributional issues be political, then so is the public benefit test.

How then is the Commission to interpret the public benefit? Ultimately this has to be within the public policy framework of current economic and social management.

4.4 The Public Policy Framework

There is specific provision in the Act for the Government lo advise the Commission of its economic policies. This has nol yel been invoked.

However, it would be idle to assume that the Commission decisions are not influenced by the public policy framework. One only has lo consider how an open minded Commission might be intellectually persuaded by a Marxist as to a particular interpretation of competition policy, and yel the likelihood is that such an interpretation would not be adopted in the Commission’s decisions.

Practically the Commission has the choice of being conscious about its use of the public policy framework, or of being unconscious. This is a different issue from being explicit or implicit in the judgement. Transparency and clarity however would suggest consciousness and a cautious explicitness

There is, of course, room to debate what is public policy. For instance some of the advocates of efficiency as the Commerce Act objective, have argued this is the primary objective in public policy generally. It would be hard to gel a government certification lo this effect. And in any case il is easy lo get a long list of instances of industrial reform where il is evident that the objective of efficiency has been moderated by transitional easing and other considerations; border protection, deep water fishing, taxi licensing, town milk supply, vineyards, the West Coast railway line. It could also be argued that in a number of cases of slate owned enterprise reorganisation, the objective was the introduction of competition rather than static efficiency gains.

Such examples provide an indication of how the Commission might interpret the public benefit. Moreover if there were a change in government policy, the Commission can easily respond. For instance, suppose the government decided to be more interventionist in terms of supporting failing regions. This would be a signal to the Commission to consider regional issues more weightily, without there being a letter of direction from the Government.

4.5 Labour Reductions

This approach indicates how the Commission should think about the question of the public benefit, then considering the labour shedding that usually goes with efficiency gains. (There may be other factor mputs for which the issue arises, but labour is the most obvious and the exemplar.)

Practically this issue arose in the Whakatu/Advanced case (Commerce Commission Decision 205). The Commission accepted the Combmed Trade Unions’ argument that the labour market should be taken into account. It went on to find there was a detriment from the loss of employment, mentioning in particular that skilled meat workers would find it “difficult (and impossible in some cases) to relocate theIr skills (para 56).

The majority opinion found that there were some employment benefits, from the enhanced security of those who retamed theIr posltton but these were not outweighed by the detriment from redundancies. The minority opinion argued “I do not accept that a substantial loss of employment should be viewed lightly”.

There is a paradox in all this. As a first approximation, the economic evaluation of the immediate detriments from the redundancy wlll almost exactly balance the gains from efficiency. Thus if efficiency and employment were to be given equal weight in the public benefit the net effect would be near zero in the short term.

One resolution is that if there were adequate redundancy packages, an effective active labour market program, and full employment, the shed labour would be easily redeployed, in which case the additional output from the released resources would convert this part of the public benefit back into a quantum similar to the efficiency gains.

Alas these preconditions no not currently apply, particularly the third one. What is the Commission to do?

The public policy framework argued earlier, suggests that the Commission should look at similar cases. In particular, it is evident from the corporatisation policy that the government has given a considerably higher weighting for efficiency gains relative to redundancies, even where there is little hope of early labour redeployment. Without cases to the contrary the Commission would make a similar weighing. Even if each Commissioner has considerable reservations about the rightness of the labour market component of the corporatisation policy, the Commission has little choice but to follow the general policy framework.

4.6 Rationalisation

The Whakatu/Advanced case provides illustration of another public benefit issue; that of rationalisation. There was a complicated irony in the case which may have escaped the Commissioners.

The reason why the rationalisation would lead to a lessening of competition was that the freezing industry has significant entry and exit costs; it is not a contestable industry (Grimmond 1986). These were the very same factors which required the collective agreements aimed at rationalising the Hawkes Bay industry.

Suppose, as the Commission concluded, that this rationalisation was in the public interest. And suppose, as a majority of the Commissioners concluded, that there was no other obvious or less painful way of rationalisation. In reaching this conclusion, it would note that before 1984 a government-led restructuring may have been feasible, but that the current policy framework would rule such an option out.

In such circumstances the irony is that the very factors which generate the need for the collective agreement, are the factors which result in the lessening of competition. In the light of this analysis it is not surprising that some (in fact a majority) of the Commissioners found the public benefit from the rationalisation of the industry outweighed the detriment from a loss of competition. It is noteworthy that the main point of the minority report is that there was an alternative private sector way of bringing about this rationalisation.

4.7 The Auckland Town Milk Supply Case

Perhaps an even more interesting case, where the complexity of the market regulation generated an unexpected public benefit, was the proposed merger between NZ Cooperative Dairy Company (NZCDC) and the Auckland Cooperative Milk Producers (ACMP). Relating the story involves some detail, although a number of aspects involved in the merger will be ignored for simplicity and brevity.

NZCDC is New Zealand’s largest dairy company, based in the Waikato concerned primarily with manufactured milk – that is milk which is mainly exported as butter, cheese, casein, and such like. It also is involved in town milk supply to a number of South Auckland centres and to greater Auckland City, (as well as related products such as yoghurt, cream and cottage cheeses, cream, dairy foods).

ACMP was not at all involved in manufactured milk, being a town milk supplier, mainly to Auckland City, plus the production of a similar line of related products

For five decades the town milk supply had been regulated quite separately from manufactured milk. Town milk supply was based upon a system of the licensing of milk delivery. Those who had the licences had the protected monopoly for delivery in the area, including to bulk purchasers such as hospitals and supermarkets.

As a result of the licensing regime, town milk supply dairy farmers used a different technology from manufactured milk supply. The latter only supplied ‘seasonally’ , typically for eight or nine months, drying their cows off when there was insufficient feed. Town milk demand was annual, so that the suppliers kept their cows milking all year, using expensive fodder over the winter months. Not surprisingly, town milk supply was more expensive per litre.

In late 1987 legislation was introduced, to be passed in March 1988, which increased competition in the town delivery, with the aim being to integrate the two dairy industries. Ultimately – in 1993 – there would be no licensing of local delivery, but initially only bulk supply was liberalised. In many cities this was not of great immediate effect, since they already had only a single supplier, but in Auckland with its two suppliers it meant that the each could supply all bulk purchasers, who made up about 10 percent of total purchasers, including those in the other company’s supply area.

Cynics will not be surprised to learn that shortly after the thrust of the liberalisation measures were announced, ACMP and NZCDC began discussions which led to the merger proposal. However ACMP was in a difficult position, with problems with long term milk supply and no access to the manufactured milk industry.

(There was an alternative merger proposal involving ACMP and a consortium of South Auckland dairy companies who were in competition with NZCDC, mainly in the manufactured milk area. ACMP management and shareholders did not consider their terms as attractive.)

While NZCDC argued that other dairy producers were potential entrants in the market, the Commission found that the merger would create dominance. The question then turned on whether, nonetheless, the merger was in the public interest. The NZCDC argued that there would be efficiency gains from rationalisation, and the benefits to be discussed in the next section of improving the economic situation of the export dairy industry.

However they also claimed that there was another technology which would lower milk supply costs, and integrate the town and manufactured milk supply. This would be induced by a Winter Milk scheme, .which involved town milk suppliers being paid manufacturing milk prices in the on-season, and a premium for milk supplied in winter months, signalling them to switch to a manufactured milk mode of production, but delaying some of the calving to bridge the milk supply in the off-season.

There was no doubt that if economically viable, this was the sort of industry rationalisation that the new regulatory environment was intended to generate. Normally ordinary market processes would ?0 this. The NZCDC, with its cheaper milk would offer lower prices to city consumers, forcing ACMP to adopt the change. NZCDC thought there were other parts of New Zealand where a Winter MILK scheme would also be successful and cheaper, but that their area was the best place to introduce it. However in the opinion of NZCDC the new regulatory environment discouraged the scheme’s introduction.

They reasoned as follows. Suppose the NZCDC were to introduce the scheme which would take three years to become fully operational. A number of NZCDC suppliers personally attested to the Commission that they would resist any such change to their traditional practice? They were understandably apprehensive at the rearrangement to their lives the Winter Milk Scheme would entail. It was a reasonable inference that they would transfer to ACMP, who would welcome them.

This would leave NZCDC with a shortage of supply of milk over winter months. Even if they were to withdraw from bulk supply; NZCDC would not have been able to meet all their household commitments for the first year or two of the scheme. Under the town milk .licensing scheme that would remain in operation, given a shortage of milk supply in winter months NZCDC would have had to return some of their household district licences, which would have been snapped up by ACMP who already had the supply capacity from the farmers who had changed companies. (Nor would the ACMP be as interested in a winter supply scheme because its farmers were not involved in manufactured milk supply.) However, as the NZCDC built up its supply capacity, the reverse would not happen, because ACMP would not release its extra licences.

The effect, then, of the introduction of the new low cost regime would be for NZCDC to lose suppliers and hence, because of the town milk supply licensing arrangements, markets. As long as the licensing regime was in place they would not be able to recover market share at a later date, even if cheaper supply conditions meant they sold cheaper milk. The outcome would be the reverse of reverse of the normal market situation where a cheaper technology would increase market share.

NZCDC explained that to avoid this, they would delay the introduction of the scheme, by up to three years. The costs would be a less efficient milk supply and (possibly) higher milk prices, for Auckland and other centres where the scheme was commercially viable. A quantitative estimate of this loss, albeit over a limited period, suggested it was larger than the rationalisation gain.

Of course there are problems with this story. An illustration of one powerful weakness will do here. Suppose the merger is proceeded with, but that the scheme proves to be more expensive than the current system. Presumably the company would easily pass the burden on to the milk drinkers of Auckland.

However the Commission found that the potential public benefits of the merger, of which the Winter Milk Scheme was a major part, outweighed the detriment from dominance and authorised for the merger to go a head. Ironically, the regulatory environment was a major contributor to the post merger dominance and to the public benefit that the merger would generate

Subsequent events throw little light upon the correctness of the decision. It is true that NZCDC raised its prices three times in the period from January 1988 to May 1989. This could be argued to be a result of the lack of competition, but equally it could be argued that NZCDC tended

to follow other North Island suppliers in their hikes. In any case, the logic of the changed market regulation was that town milk prices would more closely follow manufactured milk prices, and this was a period of rising world dairy prices. However it can be reported that NZCDC did introduce a Winter Milk scheme, but because it is phased in it is not yet possible to assess its success.

4.8 Other Reasons for the Public Benefit

Various other reasons for the public benefit have been submitted. In the Fletcher Challenge Limited/New Zealand Forest Products proposed merger (Commerce Commission Decision 213), Fletchers argued there were benefits from various forms of rationalisation, synergies, reduced use of public roads, and export market development. The Commission did not find these benefits weighty enough to compensate for market dominance.

In Amcor/New Zealand Forest Products (Commerce Commission Decision 208) claims were made for enhanced export potential, the introduction of new products, lower prices to customers (presumably an efficiency claim), regional benefits to the depressed Northland region, and CER. Again the Commission did not find them sufficiently weighty.

In the NZCDC/ACMP case, as well as rationalisation and regulatory distortion, export development, the importance of the dairy industry, CER, and new products were claimed as public benefits. It would appear that the latter group of arguments were given as little weighting as in the previous two mentioned cases.

From the public policy framework, this is not surprising. Suppose each firm had gone to the government requesting tariff protection, a subsidy, or some such intervention on the basis of these claimed public benefits. The government response would have been a sympathetic hearing, an admission these were public benefits, and a firm no -not unlike the Commission. At issue is not whether they are public benefits, but whether the benefits are so large that they justify the intervention, particularly that the intervention itself is likely to have deleterious effects.

The FCL/NZFP case included another public benefit plea which deserves a little more consideration. It was argued that the merger would maximise shareholder wealth. It is doubtful that asking for a government intervention in order to increase or maximise shareholder wealth would get a sympathetic hearing from government. However what was really being submitted was that the efficiency gains from rationalisation (which did not appear in lower prices) would benefit owners. So that argument amounted to an alternative presentation of earlier claimed public benefits, rather than a new one.

One can but muse as to the sort of debate which might ensue if the evidence of shareholder wealth as assessed by share prices was to be seriously considered as a public benefit. The debate would certainly keep a number of economists well renumerated. Since there is good evidence that mergers frequently depress the share price of the successful company in the long run, and may (but less often) depress total shareholder wealth (Duncan et al, 1988) one might end up with the Commission prohibiting all competition lessening mergers as being against the public benefit! This is perhaps another example of the dangers of assuming that the rationalisation efficiency gaining benefits claimed by management are always reliable.

There may well be other circumstances in which the public benefit on this could be found weighty. For instance a good example of the failing firm case has not yet confronted the Commission. However cases where the public benefit is likely to outweigh the detriment of dominance are likely to be rare and idiosyncratic.

4.9 Weighing and Balancing

T he rarity of opportunities to weigh and balance the net public benefit against the detriment from dominance leaves few case examples and a degree of uncertainty from the lack of case law.

The public policy framework proposed here may reduce the uncertainty. The Commission might ask itself is are there cases where the government has given a favourable intervention for parallel public benefits.

It would of course, be inappropriate for the Commission to approach the government for a ruling. However it might invite the applicants to submit suitable cases for its consideration, or explain why there are no parallels.

4.10 Procedures and Consequences

A significant weakness in cases where the public benefit is to be argued, the public is not represented by a counsel. This means the Commission does not have the benefit of alternative scrutiny of any arguments, in an area which we have seen is really quite complicated.

Perhaps the Commission should appoint an amicus curiae in such cases, who would have access to his or her own expert advisers/witnesses. The expense would be paid for by the applicant, and, if confined to cases where the public benefit provision was invoked, would discourage frivolous invocations.

If dominance is found but a public benefit is considered to outweigh the detriment, it is reasonable to suppose that the merged firm will use its new market power at the expense of the consumer (or supplier). The standard assumption in antitrust is that if the fox is put in with the chickens he will eat some, irrespective of his protestation of innocence before the occasion. Of course there are foxes sensitive to the rights of chickens; it is just that you cannot run a farmyard on the assumption that all are.

To an extent the public benefit has to outweigh the consumer exploitation. However in the NZCDC/ACMP case the Commission indicated the price control powers in the Commerce Act could be used if it thought the abuse was excessive.

The trouble is with such a threat that there is a clear and understandable reluctance to use price controls (Collinge 1988). They are clumsy in even favourable circumstances (Easton 1986) and the experience of officials with them in the pre 1984 era was far from happy.

Perhaps the Commission should not have bothered with such a threat. Alternately, perhaps there is a need for a wider set of policy measures to restrain firms where, say, a merger is approved in the public interest, despite the acquisition or increase of dominance. These could include

requiring “four p” reporting of annual productivity, price, profit and performance in the dominant market, to indicate the firm was under notice of consideration for price controls,
divestment provisions in the Act, which even if never used may represent a deterrence to abuse of market power ,
and, when the public sector regulatory framework is settled, similar provisions for parallel private sector firms, particularly private sector common carriers (or essential facilities).

This is not a comprehensive set of measures. What has to be recognised is given the public benefit provisions of the Commerce Act, that on occasions the Commission will authorise mergers which subsequently prove to create market dominance, and that dominance can develop in ways other than via mergers. There may well be a tendency towards monopolisation in some sectors of the economy, particularly as the present round of government liberalisation measures are exhausted. It is not obvious that the provisions of section 36 of the Act provide sufficient restraint.

Moreover, the traditional concerns which lead to a heavily regulated industrial structure have not disappeared. The Commission is familiar with aspiring merger candidates explaining that they need the whole of the domestic market to ward off foreign competition or as a base for exporting. Local raw materials, exchange rate variations, distribution advantages, and overseas supply circumstances and uncertainties among many things -may give the firm a comfortable degree of market dominance. There may be a public benefit, but may it not be greater if there is regulation in the public interest, where there is not adequate market regulation? The traditional concerns do not go away by ignoring them.

4.11 Conclusions

Sometimes there will be a public benefit in a merger, despite a lessening of competition. Such occasions may be rare, but it makes sense to include this situation as one appropriate for merger authorization.

Crude criteria such as efficiency need to be tempered by rigorous economic analysis. It is not possible to avoid ‘political’ judgements ignoring them with covert assumptions is hardly adequate. However the assessment of public benefit is likely to be most satisfactory if it is recognised that decisions are taken in the context of the existing public policy framework and consideration be given to parallel public policy decisions taken elsewhere.

Moreover there needs to be consideration as to the way the matter is presented before the Commission, and mechanisms to regulate the situation after a merger is approved in the public benefit.

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Greer, D F Efficiency and Competition: Alternative, Complementary or Conflicting Objectives? NZIER Research Monograph No 47, 1988.
Grimmond, D “Delicensing in the Meat Industry” in Bollard, A E and B H Easton ( ed) Markets, Regulation, and Pricing, NZIER Research £aper 31, p.78-95, 1985.
Jennings, S and S. Begg An Economic Review of Commerce Commission Decisions Under the Commerce Act 1986, Paper prepared for the Treasury, Jarden & Co Ltd, Wellington, 1988.
Jennings, S and K Vautier “Review Article. ‘Competitive Trading in New Zealand: the Commerce Act 1986’. by B M Hill and M R Jones”, Recent Law in New Zealand, April 1988, pp 95-107, 1988.
Kerr, R L “Time to Rethink Monopolies”, National Business Review, July pp 8-9, 1988.
Southpac Review of the Commerce Act 1986. A Submission to the Department of Trade and Industry, Submission No 31, Wellington, 1988.
Vautier, K M “Competition Policy and Competition Law in New Zealand”, in Bollard, A E and R A Buckle ( ed) Economic Liberalisation in New Zealand, Allen and Unwin, Wellington, pp 46-66, 1988.
Williams, P L “Why Regulate for Competition?” Paper for NZ Centre for Independent Studies Conference on Regulating for Competition, 1988.

From Run to Float: the Making Of the Rogernomics Exchange Rate Policy

Chapter 4 The Making of Rogernomics (AUP, 1989) pp.92-113.

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;

Beginning the run [1]

Whatever the political reasons for the calling of a snap election on Thursday 14 June 1984, there were many who thought that important factors were the state of the economy, the difficulty of locking up the Budget given the size of the deficit, the monetary stance, and the uncertainties of exchange rate policy.

On Friday morning Sir Robert Muldoon was questioned about this on National Radio’s ‘Morning Report’ programme, but denied the charges, claiming that the Budget was complete except that decisions had to be made about export incentives: to manufacturers and supplementary minimum payments to farmers. What he meant was that he was still talking to the manufacturers and farmers. but it sounded as if he had decided upon everything except exchange rate policy (Easton 1985).

The thought appears to have occurred to those who dealt in foreign exchange. Initially, many expected National to be returned. The others assumed that Labour was planning to devalue anyway. The 1983 Australian election, which was followed by a devaluation a few days after, may have been taken as an omen.

On the Friday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold $256 million of foreign exchange to the trading banks and other currency dealers. An indication of how large this was is that at the end of the day the Bank was left with only $240 million of liquid reserves (Memorandum for the Minister of Finance, 17 June 1984).

At that time New Zealand foreign exchange was on a fixed, or pegged, ‘exchange rate (Keenan 1985b). The value at which the currency was ‘bought and sold was fixed within narrow margins, with the Reserve Bank willing to buy and sell at this fixed rate

The prospect of an imminent .devaluation generated what has been called a ‘one-way bet’. If a foreign exchange dealer knows that, say, the currency is to be devalued in a month by 10 per cent, then the dealer converts all the local currency into a foreign currency by selling it to the Reserve Bank, and then converts these holdings after the devaluation back to the local currency by buying it from the Bank at a profit of 10 per cent. The difference is borne by the Reserve Bank, and ultimately by the taxpayer.[2]

Thus it was perfectly understandable, indeed predictable, that any election called with some possibility of a devaluation shortly after would cause a run on the dollar. The practice in previous elections had been for the Treasury and the Bank to increase the liquidity of their foreign exchange holdings as the country moved into the final stages of the election. This apparently had been planned for a November 1984 election, but a snap election five months early had not been allowed for. However, given the extent of the run that actually occurred, there may not have been enough official liquidity, even if the officials had anticipated the early election

The officials’ response

The officials’ confidential memorandum [3] to the Minister of Finance on Sunday 17 June is a gloomy one. After relating the size of the Friday run on the dollar, the shortage of liquid funds, and the expectations of large future international borrowing, it says, ‘We clearly have on our hands a foreign exchange crisis of a major kind. It is extremely difficult to predict how much worse it will get.’ (Para. 5.) It goes on to warn of the ‘indications of the potential for a substantial worsening from Monday onwards’.

The ‘policy options in order of preference [were ]
(a) Devalue
(b) Support the forward market
(c) Tighten exchange controls
(d) Tighten domestic credit
(e) Tighten import controls
(f) Decontrol short-term interest rates (which would be a useful adjunct to any of the other options)’ (para. 8).

The specific devaluation recommendation was ‘of 15 per cent and an immediate return to the crawling peg, which would be officials’ strong preference’ (para. 14). [4]

However the Minister of Finance approved the second option, of the Reserve Bank re-entering the forward market, [5] plus the liquefying of existing reserves and the drawing of credit standbys. He did not agree that the use of exchange and/or credit controls should be avoided, nor that consideration should be given to ‘de-controlling wholesale deposit interest rate controls, an option which officials would favour’ (para. 14).

The forward exchange option

A forward exchange market involves currency transactions occurring in the future (Keenan 1985b). The advantage to the Government was that the Reserve Bank would not have to supply foreign currency immediately. In the interim it could borrow or liquify its reserves to meet its part of the bargain. Ideally it might not even have to do this, because at the point of transaction the purchaser may have wanted to convert the foreign currency back to domestic currency immediately -a real possibility if the devaluation was no longer on, or had occurred.

The advantage to the dealers of purchasers is that they were able to participate in the one-way bet without putting up the money. In simple terms, a dealer agreed to buy the foreign currency at the current official rate at some point in the future, with the likelihood it could be immediately resold at a more favourable rate following the devaluation.

There is a premium in the forward market, not unlike an interest rate, which could have been raised by the Bank to discourage forward purchases. However that would have pushed the dealers back into the current (spot) market, which is what was being avoided.

That was not how it was presented to the public. Pressure went off the spot market and there were even sales of $80 million of foreign currency to the Reserve Bank on the Monday. Both matters were mentioned by Muldoon as evidence the crisis had been solved, a view he persisted with later (Muldoon 1985, pp.130-1).[6]

However the officials’ memoranda paint a different picture: ‘Although it would seem that an immediate crisis ,has been averted, albeit at the cost of a heavily oversold Reserve Bank forward position’ (18 June); ‘a total outflow for the month (of June is) NZ$766 million. …The Bank’s forward order book is oversold to the extent of NZ$507 million. … As of this morning, the Bank’s liquid reserves totalled NZ$406 million and Treasury’s available liquids were NZ$47 million, …The situation is clearly fragile.’ (28 June)

A political commitment during an election campaign not to devalue cannot be broken until after the election without the severest political consequences. The financial sector knew there was no need to speculate on the dollar until closer to election day. Indeed, given that the existing purchases had already caused a financial drain, and hence a domestic shortage of liquidity, it was better to leave the run to the final straight.

The confidence of such a strategy was reinforced by the widespread knowledge among financiers that Muldoon had been advised by officials on 17 June to devalue by 15 per cent.[7]

The choice of 15 per cent

The 15 per cent seems to have been a rough stab by the officials at what they thought was necessary. The minutes of Muldoon’s cross-examination of Dr Deane, then Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank, In the Public Expenditure Committee read as follows:

“Sir Robert asked how the 15% was derived.
“Dr Deane said deriving the figure involved a lot of judgement and that it was d:nved from a range, of analyses, for example, econometric models and looking at a range of indicators, for example, terms of trade, profitability, of exports, indicators of competitiveness over a period of time. (p. 15)”

Muldoon then goes on to explore how far the recommendation was a response to the particular circumstance, and to what extent it reflected , the officials’ policy advice over many years. He mentioned that ‘a figure of 15% was recommended in a paper of December 1982′

Deane said that in February 1984 a case was made for devaluation, but no figure was mentioned in the committee. It seems reasonable to conclude from the interchange that in early 1984 officials were keen on a devaluation of at least 10 per cent, and the June run on the dollar gave them yet another opportunity to advance this case, compounded by the need to protect overseas reserves. In making this judgement, it is crucial to note that the officials’ view of a need for a devaluation was parallelled by the private sector assessment. Without the latter there would have been no run on the dollar.

As the Deane response shows, there was considerable uncertainty in assessing the degree of devaluation needed. Indeed the memorandum proposing it included the recommendation to return to the crawling peg exchange rate regime of 1979-82;[8] this ‘would allow us to adjust the rate further should this be justified later, without attracting undue attention. If the Australian experience is any guide, some revaluation may subsequently be possible.'(17 June)

The devaluation

In the interim between the decision not to devalue and the election, the drain on liquidity to fund the purchases of foreign currency was affecting the viability of some financial institutions. The long-standing but recently reinforced controls on portfolios and interest rates meant that the financial system could not easily adapt to this drain, and there was some concern as to whether some institutions would get into severe difficulty. There appears to have been some debate as to whether there should have been a monetary injection to ease the situation, but the officials took the view that any injection would leak through into further purchases of foreign exchange.[9]

As the memoranda warned, the second speculative attack occurred with a vengeance in the week before the election, at a rate of $100 million a day, with $180 million on the Friday.

The officials’ memorandum of 15 July, the Sunday after the election, reported that if the outflow continued at the previous week’s rate, overseas reserves would ‘expire within seven days. The enormous outflow has continued despite the fact that our total forward commitments are now NZ$1,222 million, of which $1,025 million falls due before the end of August.’

Almost everyone, with the outgoing Prime Minister the most prominent exception, thought a devaluation was inevitable. Whether it needed to be 20 per cent can be debated, although given that the June recommendation of 15 per cent was widely known, something in excess of this was perhaps necessary.

No crawling peg was recommended to the incoming Government. A new strategy is presented in the officials’ first letter to the incoming Prime Minister. After recommending a 20 per cent devaluation it goes on,

“We would also recommend an immediate investigation of the possibility of moving to more flexible exchange rate arrangements to avoid the possibility of this sort of problem recurring in the future. The possibility of floating the exchange rate is an option which has considerable appeal, as the Australians have found.[10] However, there are a number of policy and institutional matters which would first need to be attended to should the government wish to move in this direction. …The most important of these aspects are domestic interest rate flexibility, an appropriate fiscal and monetary mix, and a review of the institutional arrangements which apply to the foreign exchange dealers to ensure they could handle a market-determined exchange rate.” (p.6)

For two and more years the officials had been arguing with their Minister that the exchange rate had been overvalued and needed attention. Their advice appears to have been in an interventionist frame, which they presumably judged as acceptable to the. Minister: In the previous month they had gone through the harrowing. Experience of a run on the dollar, with predictable consequences but with no political will to face the issue. Whatever the theoretical stance they would take, in practice their preferred exchange rate policy .was likely. to be very different from the one that they had been administering in the past. A change of government was an obvious time to disclose their politically unconstrained wishes.

The meaning of the exchange rate terms

At this point it is necessary to say something about the meaning of various terms used to describe exchange rate management regimes. The convention is to use the expression ‘fixed exchange rate’ to refer to a regime where the domestic currency is set in terms of another currency, such as the US dollar or sterling, or of a basket of currencies. On infrequent occasions the ‘peg’ would be changed. This was the regime in New Zealand until July 1979, and between June 1982 and March 1985.

At the other .extreme is the ‘clean float’, commonly abbreviated the ‘float’.[11] This involves no fixed. or official exchange rate, explicitly or implicitly, and there is no Reserve Bank (or other official) intervention in the exchange rate market by the selling or purchasing currency to .maintain, or even nudge towards, a set level. This has been the regime from March 1985. A government can still affect the exchange rate in a clean float, but this is by indirect means through monetary and fiscal instruments, and not by direct currency transactions.

Between these two extremes are a raft of options loosely described’ as ‘managed exchange rate regimes’. They include the ‘crawling peg’, ‘wideband floating’ ( or, as the officials were to call it in late 1984, ‘constrained floating’), where the exchange rate is permitted to move within wide margins of an officially determined midpoint exchange rate (which may be a crawling peg);[12] and the ‘dirty float’ where the authorities intervene on occasions to maintain the currency near an undisclosed official rate or to ‘nudge’ it in that direction. The dirty float is the regime for many OECD countries, including Australia from late 1985. Few countries have clean floated for long (Brady & Duggan 1984, Appendix 3).

Such terminological distinctions become important because it is not clear that the officials were using them, despite their being the common terminology in New Zealand at the time (Buckle & Pope 1985, Keenan 1985). It seems that the expression ‘float’ may have meant for officials anything from a clean float to most forms of managed floats. Thus the invitation in the letter to Lange to consider a ‘floating exchange rate arrangement’ may not necessarily have meant a clean float.

The Reserve Bank post-election brief

Post-election briefs appear to have been a normal part of government for many years. During the election period the officials of most departments would prepare a report for briefing the incoming minister. Typically the brief would include an account of the workings of the department,[13] and a brief coverage of the major issues concerning the department, sometimes followed by a phrase such as ‘further material can be provided to the minister on request’. As well as its overt function, the departmental brief provides a background for its executive, and a triennial internal review.

There was, however, a further factor which perhaps dominated the Bank and Treasury briefs in 1984. Following a similar action in Australia after its 1983 federal election, the Labour Party had promised to ‘open the books’ if it because government; ‘the books’ were the post-election briefs. Thus the officials’ competence would be on public display.

The focus here is on the exchange rate policy chapters of the Bank and Treasury briefs.[14] In keeping with its generally slimmer presentation, the Reserve Bank chapter is a cautious and not very ambitious discussion on ‘the general principles underlying exchange rate policy’ ( 1984, p.48). The six pages cover the equilibrium exchange rate, the application of the notion, an assessment of the exchange rate in relation to the equilibrium rate, three paragraphs on adjusting the exchange rate, and a summary conclusion.

The policy conclusions (written before the 20 per cent devaluation) were:

“the New Zealand dollar is substantially overvalued at present, and a sizeable devaluation is required, supported by appropriately firm domestic monetary and other anti-inflationary policies and desirably accompanied by removal of the various exchange rate policy proxies from the past. Devaluation in a loose monetary policy environment would simply be inflationary, and no real benefits would be achieved. … devaluation and removal of the associated interventions such as export incentives, SMPs and border protection could require the development of more comprehensive policies for structural adjustment assistance.” (p.53)

This is cautious and orthodox. Clearly at this point the Bank was working within the policy framework of a fixed peg regime. There is one mention of floating:

“…neither polar case of a permanently fixed exchange rate or a perfectly floating exchange rate has ever been followed. Where the nominal rate has been fixed, discretionary changes in the rate have always occurred, even if infrequently. And in those countries which have floated, developments in the market exchange rate have never been a complete indifference to the authorities, and have often provoked policy responses. In other words, at the risk of oversimplifying, both the inflation rate and the nominal exchange rate seem to have been regarded as of ‘independent’ importance in all countries. “(p.50)

Given the limited objective of the chapter there is perhaps only one major criticism. Throughout the brief the role of monetary policy is given prominence, perhaps understandably by a Reserve Bank, but there is little reference to fiscal policy. The casual reader might conclude that the currency could be successfully floated irrespective of the size of the government deficit.

The Treasury post-election brief

The Treasury briefing on the exchange rate is much more ambitious. Chapter 3 discusses the interconnections between monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies, including the prescient

“floating the exchange rate in conjunction with a large fiscal deficit and a tight monetary policy is an undesirable policy combination. The effect, as the United States economy is currently demonstrating, can be to keep the exchange rate at, or driving up to, a high level, inhibiting exports and promoting imports by reducing the competitiveness of those industries trying to compete with foreign competition. The costs of this depend upon the degree to which the size of the underlying fiscal deficit is justifiable. … If the foreign borrowing is essentially to finance current consumption, then the effect is to penalise future generations.” (p.137)

This chapter refers to ‘the need for greater flexibility in the exchange rate’ (p.137) and ‘the key requirements for macro policies (including) …a more market-determined exchange rate’ (p.141).

In Chapter 5, 13 pages long and more ambitious than the Reserve Bank equivalent, a more detailed policy option is indicated.

“Flexibility in the exchange rate is highly desirable for helping the economy adjust to changing circumstances. Such adjustments are likely to be achieved most efficiently with a floating exchange rate. However, such flexibility by itself is no panacea, since it cannot compensate for poor underlying monetary. fiscal and regulatory policies.” (p. 157)

The section on ‘Nominal Exchange Rate Determination; The Options’ opens promisingly with the statement that ‘countries have a wide range of choice about how to manage their exchange rates’, and a description of the ‘rigidly fixed’ and ‘floating’ exchange rates as extremes (p.164). It talks about ‘flexibility’, and mentions the crawling-peg regime of June 1979 to 1982.

However when it comes to describing the options, only the extremes of the fixed and floating are considered, with no mention of any of the options between. The result is a seriously imbalanced presentation. Given the experience under the Muldoon stewardship, and particularly of the run over the previous month, it was difficult to make a case for the fixed exchange rate. In effect the incoming Government was given only one option: that of a pure float.

Perhaps because the writers were so committed, the account of floating the exchange rate is somewhat idealised and the benefits overplayed, in contrast to the earlier cautions. Nowhere is this more evident than in the opening advantage ascribed to floating: ‘With floating the exchange rate, there is less risk th~t poor monetary and fiscal policies will impoverish those industries exposed to world trade while generating spiralling external debt problems.’ (p.166) The collapse in the syntax towards the end of the sentence warns there is something wrong. Fundamentally the sentence is almost contradicting the earlier warnings of the need for severe fiscal restraint in association with floating. And of course, as events were to prove, it was wrong.

Overshooting and the exchange rate

When assessing the officials’ advice we need to ask whether what actually happened was predictable both in terms of the officials’ account. And in the light of other contributions at the time.

Shortly after the floating the nominal value of the New Zealand dollar rose. More important, the real exchange rate, which both the Bank and Treasury briefings emphasise as critical, also rose, and remains at a high level compared to that when the election was called and before the 20 per cent devaluation.

The real exchange rate (the nominal exchange rate adjusted for domestic prices or costs relative to international ones) is important because it determines the profitability of exporting and importing. If the real rate is high, exporting is discouraged and importing is encouraged. For a given national income this means that the deficit on the current account of the external balance of payments will be larger, and more will have to be borrowed overseas to, in the words of the Treasury briefing, ‘penalise future generations’. [15]

During the 1970s and 1980s, structural analysis and policy had placed increasing emphasis upon the health of the tradeable sector for longterm sustainable economic growth (e.g. Economic Summit Conference 1984). Indeed it could be argued that two major strands of macroeconomic policy development –that and monetary policy -were never properly integrated. The practical point where the clash occurred was the exchange rate. If the exchange rate was to be too high for too long then the tradeable sector would suffer. And so would the productive economy. That is exactly what happened after the 1985 float.

Such an outcome was foreseen by economists outside government, particularly by the late Merv Pope, who in a number of articles written before the float had cautioned against the policy and indeed predicted the overshooting of the exchange rate (Pope 1984, Buckle & Pope 1985). In doing so, he, and the other less vocal critics, were repeating the lessons from the theoretical literature.

The Labour Government stance

Some mention of Labour’s views is appropriate. As reported in Chapter I, the Party in opposition had come to an uneasy compromise which amounted to not really having an exchange rate policy at all. However once they became government this ceased to be relevant for two reasons.

First there was the exchange rate crisis itself; the Party manifesto was of little guidance here.

And second, in practice policy becomes the responsibility of a minister (or ministers). There is no documentation yet on how the Labour Cabinet functioned in its first three years. Douglas (1987) talks about close consultation with his two Deputy Ministers, Caygill and Prebble, occasionally with Lange or Palmer.

Douglas had had a long interest in exchange rate policy. He was an ardent (fixed peg) devaluer in his 1980 manifesto. In October 1983 he prepared a paper advocating devaluation, which was circulated to his electorate just after the election was called. Muldoon drew public attention to the paper, but Douglas said that the option of devaluation had been discussed but had subsequently been rejected as policy by the Labour Party (Muldoon 1985, p.129; Douglas 1987 p:42). By mid February 1984 Douglas had decided to remove devaluation from his proposed policy. However that does not mean that he had abandoned the strategy.

Muldoon’s eagerness to identify Labour as having a policy of devaluation came partly from the officials’ paper of Sunday 15 May, which said, ‘It is well known that the Labour Party intend to devalue if they become the Government’ (p.2).

When Deane was asked at the Public Expenditure Committee the evidence for this statement, he replied that ‘he had learnt it from items in the news media, from material published by Mr Douglas, and through consultation with people in the financial markets’ (p.14). Because the enquiry was terminated we do not know which items the Deputy Governor had in mind.

Labour’s position on exchange rate management was towards flexibility,[16] although as late as February 1984 Douglas still supported devaluation, that is, a fixed-peg regime. Five months later, during the first days of office, he wanted to float, and was dissuaded by officials because the supporting policies and institutions were not yet in position.[17] This may explain why the officials and their policies appear to be working systematically towards floating after the 1984 election.

After the devaluation

On the basis of the available evidence the situation after the devaluation of 17 July was as follows.

All officials had been through the trauma of the June/ July run on the dollar (as well as difficulties of Muldoon’s fixed-peg exchange rate policies during the whole of his term of office), and would no doubt have supported something different. They probably thought the 20 per cent devaluation was a fraction high but necessary to regain market confidence. There is likely to have been considerable variation among officials, even within the same institution. For instance, a confidential discussion paper, dated March 1984, by the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank makes a strong case for floating quite unlike that of the Reserve Bank post-election briefing, but confirms Douglas’s description that Deane was a ‘driving force behind their arguments and [that he] had worked out earlier plans to Implement [floating] (1987, p.142).

The Reserve Bank appeared to be still thinking largely In terms of a managed-peg regime. It tended to focus upon monetary policy and play down the role of fiscal policy.

The Treasury strongly favoured floating; probably they meant clean floating. They were better at discussing fiscal policy in a general context, rather than in relation to the specifics of its role under a floating regime.

Even so the weight of the two institutions favoured not only a more flexible exchange rate regime, but an arrangement they would describe as floating (although the papers rarely ever defined exactly what that meant).

Douglas had a preference for floating in July 1984, but he was probably not well briefed on the monetary and fiscal implications. However he was to write that ‘by mid October it was clear that the float was desirable and there was increasing pressure for it’ (1987, p.142). He is deferring to monetary pressures. A paragraph earlier he argues that floating the dollar was ‘essential’ to control the money supply.

It is not obvious whether the rest of the Labour Government’s position mattered.

The officials’ letter to Lange (15 July) mentioned a series of measures which it considered prerequisites for floating. These were all taken up over the following months. Interest rate controls were removed at the same time as the currency was devalued and considerable effort was made in subsequent months to further liberalise money markets. The November 1984 Budget took a large range of measures aimed at reducing the government deficit, improving the tax base, and reducing border protection and export subsidies. And there were enough private official briefings, and circulation of the briefing papers, to indicate to financial markets that it would be wise to develop the institutional facilities for a floated exchange rate.

Fiscal policy and floating

At this stage a little has to be said about the relationship between fiscal policy and the exchange rate, albeit at an elementary level, and even much of that relegated to an endnote. The real exchange rate determines the size of the current account deficit for a given level of national income. At the same time that deficit represents the domestic net savings deficit which has to be borrowed overseas. The economy has to therefore reconcile its real exchange rate with its domestic savings plans. Crucial in this reconciliation is fiscal policy.[18]

We have already seen that the Reserve Bank briefing was muted about the importance of fiscal policy, while the Treasury briefing, more strident in principle, was misleading when discussing the float. In assessing their post-devaluation advice we need to be particularly interested about their approach to the fiscal stance.

[ Endnote 2 of Chapter 16 of In Stormy Seas (p.312-3) comments on this Chapter that it “contains an error, which I take this opportunity to correct. I reported that the Reserve Bank post-election briefing, (PEB) on exchange rate management was ‘cautious’ whereas the Treasury was more ambitious. (p. 98). The papers made available to me at the time did not include a section omitted from the Reserve Bank PEB, nor did I note there had been an omission of four paragraphs, evident in the numbering of the paragraphs on page 53, in the section ‘adjusting the exchange rate’. I have now seen them, and they show the Reserve Bank. was. far more enthusiastic for floating the exchange rate than the edited version implied. My remarks on the reversal of the Treasury and Reserve Bank’s enthusiasm for the float six months later are also wrong.”

“Perhaps I should also record that it was proper that those paragraphs should have been omitted in the published version of the Reserve Bank PEB, since the Bank was responsible for exchange rate management at the time. It was unfortunate that when I asked the Bank for its papers on exchange rate management, sometime after the float, that they did not include the omitted section. I am sure the mistake was unintended, for the papers they gave me were very comprehensive and when, having learned of the oversight, I requested the section, the missing paragraphs were provided promptly with an apology.”]

Official advice to the end of December

As Douglas indicated, exchange rate policy was under discussion throughout the second half of 1984,.but by December 1984 the issue was seen to be becoming more critical. An interesting background to the officials’ perspective comes from a Reserve Bank study, probably commissioned shortly after the July devaluation, going through a series of revisions and discussions, with a final version dated 27 November 1984 (Brady & Duggan).

Some 40 pages long, it is the most comprehensive official paper seen. While mentioning alternatives, it focuses on floating and covers ‘independent float’, ‘group float’, and ‘crawl’.[19] Much of the paper evaluates the performance of economies where currencies have been floated.[20] Its general approach is cautious.

“The experience of the last decade of floating the rate regimes among the major world currencies has not provided unqualified support for the claims of the early proponents [of floating].” (p.7)
“…the experience of the last decade has established the effectiveness of monetary policy [under a float] is not as obvious as [claimed]. (p.19)

The paper does not satisfactorily clarify what the options were; confusion about what floating actually means remains, and though a ‘flexible exchange rate system’ is favoured, this is not described with any precision.

Second, the paper has little discussion on fiscal policy. There is a section on ‘floating rates and monetary policy’ and the mandatory ‘fiscal laxity accommodated by monetary policy can lead to no relative price improvement from a nominal exchange rate adjustment’. Nevertheless one is left with the strong impression that the writers, perhaps reflecting the Bank’s implicit thinking, judged that fiscal laxity could be over-ridden by monetary tightness. Nor is there any indication of the way that monetary and fiscal stance would affect the exchange rate. Interestingly the points in Pope (1984) are not addressed, and the article is not included among the references.[21]

Third, particular attention is paid to the Australian experience.[22]

On 7 December the Reserve Bank put up to the Minister of Finance an 11-page memorandum. It is the first official paper thus far sighted which defines the various terms rather than assuming the reader knows them. It also offers a set of options – free float, moving peg (i.e. crawling peg), managed float intervention approach (i.e. -dirty float), managed constrained float (i.e. wideband float) – and makes no recommendation but merely provides a paper ‘on the assumption that you [the Minister] would prefer to conduct a detailed discussion of the options before moving towards a decision’ (p.11), although it does not attempt to defend a fixed-peg regime.[23] Again it makes no reference to the fiscal implications for the policies, and very little reference to monetary policy either. A charitable interpretation is that the Bank was satisfied that its present policies were adequate irrespective of the chosen regime.

On 12 December the Treasury put up a memorandum to the Minister which considers three options, a ‘flexible exchange rate regime’ by which it meant ‘a (clean) floating regime’,[24] a ‘managed float regime’ (or dirty float), and a ‘regime involving flexibility within a band’ (or wideband float). It reports on the current policy situation, and focuses on managing a transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime. Again there is a comparison with Australia, and little reference to fiscal policy, except for the paragraph

“Irrespective of the exchange rate regime the importance of disciplined monetary and fiscal policy must be stressed. Under flexible exchange rate systems any relaxation of domestic policies will feed through and influence the exchange rate. (Under a fixed exchange rate the impact is felt on the reserves and on the exposed sectors of the economy.)” (p.22)

and the remark that ‘a programme to progressively reduce the fiscal deficit is under way’ (p.23).

The inference of the quoted paragraph is that under a flexible exchange rate the exposed (tradeable) sector will not suffer, whereas under a fixed exchange rate it will. It also seems to be assumed that providing the deficit was coming down in the medium term, the short term deficit would not affect the exchange rate adversely.[25]

A new feature in the paper is a short discussion on sequencing, in particular whether the capital account should be liberalised before the current account (pp. 21-22). In practice this is whether foreign exchange controls on capital flows should be abandoned before the introduction of exchange rate flexibility. The alternative would have been to float first, liberalising the trade sector with reduced tariffs, abandoning import controls and export subsidies. The text favours the former strategy, but hardly gives a balanced account of the debate. Nor does it refer to labour market and domestic product market sequencing.

The paper’s recommendation is for note and discussion, but its thrust is found in the paragraph which says,

“In time, however, it will be necessary to consider increasing the flexibility [of] the exchange rate regime. If this were to be done quickly, then for reasons outlined above a managed regime rather than a free float could be considered until foreign exchange markets have further developed).” (p.22)

Any record of the meeting between officials and the Minister is not released. However, inferences about it can be derived from a letter from the Bank to the Minister on 18 December. Officials were worried that the capital inflow was increasing the money supply, and the Bank says that

While it would be our preference to see Government move to dismantle exchange controls either before or at the time of moving to a more flexible exchange rate, we are of the opinion that the urgency of the situation requires a more flexible regime with or without full removal of exchange controls.

In fact the response was the other way around. Steps to liberalise the foreign capital markets had been underway since October. As Douglas reports

“In December I decided the time had come for the last and most significant step before floating …. the removal of exchange controls which limited the outward and inward movement of foreign exchange transactions. The decision was more politically sensitive than all the other changes, including devaluation. The question of removal of exchange controls was really about whether New Zealanders should be allowed to join the rest of the free world or remain isolated in a protectionist environment. To take the step would male it clear to everyone that this Government was determined to change New. Zealand from a highly protected economy to one which permitted its citizens to move their own assets as they chose. It was one of the three or four most important decisions we made.” (1987 p.143)

The passage contains a number of interesting points. It justifies the move in largely ideological terms, with few of the technical considerations in the officials’ papers. The move is recognised as controversial, although it did, not seem so at the time because it was it announced on 21 December, so close to Christmas that there could be little political reaction. Third, while Douglas recalls that he is totally committed to floating, there is an ambiguity as to whether it was necessarily a clean float.

There is one crucial point to be made which is not evident in either Douglas’s story or the official papers. For years New Zealand residents had had their ability to hold foreign assets limited by the regulations. Presumably these regulations had had some effect. If so, and if they were abandoned, residents would rearrange their investment portfolios in order to hold more foreign assets. This would appear as a run on the dollar, for the residents would sell New Zealand dollars to the Reserve Bank to acquire the currencies to purchase the foreign assets. There could be some offset from foreigners more willing to hold New Zealand currency because of the abandonment of the controls, but the expectation would be a net outflow. There is no evidence in the papers that this was anticipated as serious.

After Christmas: to the float

On 16 January the Reserve Bank submitted a memorandum to the Minister recommending a ‘constrained’, or wideband, float to be implemented immediately, moving towards a managed, or dirty, float ‘later’. The Treasury reported on the Reserve Bank proposition the following day

“Treasury favours a move towards a more flexible exchange rate regime. The Reserve Bank believes that current conditions favour a move towards a more market determined exchange rate as soon as possible. Treasury considers that the benefits of this option and the alternative of maintaining the status quo a little longer may be more evenly balanced. Either option involves risks. However there is nothing in the current situation that would require the government to make an immediate move. If you decide not to make any changes at this time the situation should still be kept under active review in order to determine when the balance of risk favours an immediate move to a more flexible rate.” (17 January 1985)

Ironically, over the six months since the devaluation the positions of the Bank and the Treasury had reversed. Treasury caution seems to have predominated and nothing was done.

The Bank’s 19 February memorandum to the Minister concludes, ‘On balance, we would judge it preferable to proceed with the move to a constrained [wideband] float while taking appropriate steps to rectify the reserves position as soon as possible.’ The last reference is to a (mainly deleted) mention of a deterioration in the reserves position which the Bank attributes to ‘the difficult conditions prevailing in some capital markets at present’, rather than the removal of the capital controls.

The Treasury paper of two days later (21 February) is somewhat longer and rehearses some of the past arguments, with more attention to different macroeconomic outcomes from the contrasted regimes of fixed and float. The tone of the paper is captured in the following:

“While the immediate economic situation does not necessitate any precipitous [sic] action on the exchange rate, a careful co-ordination of monetary and exchange rate policy is essential if the government is to successfully respond to pressures on the external account. …” (p.6)

and

“Treasury favours a move towards a more flexible exchange rate regime. While there is nothing ill the current situation that requires the Government to make an immediate move, adopting the sort of regime described in this report is likely to ease the task of economic management over the coming months. The sort of regime envisaged would involve the Government in some intervention in the foreign exchange market if the exchange rate came under upward pressure. …After [a certain] point, upward movements in the rate would be allowed to be determined by market pressure. The exchange rate would be allowed to depreciate in response to market pressure. Although an immediate move to this sort of regime risks some initial market disruption, Treasury is now of the view that the advantages of such a move, introduced along the lines suggested by the Reserve Bank in its memorandum of 16 January outweigh the risks.” (p.8)

That Thursday afternoon a 40-minute meeting was held between Douglas and the officials. The discussion went over the details and current market conditions. The File Note describes the Minister’s position. ‘Mr Douglas. … indicat[ed] he had come to the conclusion that we probably needed to move. He favoured moving to a system where the point at which intervention would occur and its extent would not be announced, but felt that we must be ready to intervene, at ‘least in the early stages.’ That is, Douglas favoured either the recommended constrained (or wideband) float or even a dirty float, at least initially.

The File Note concluded, ‘Mr Douglas then outlined the programme that he proposed to follow in seeking to get the change implemented. He requested briefing papers on implementation considerations and presentational points to be made to Cabinet colleagues and the public. These to be available by 11 March when the Prime Minister returns from overseas. Mr Douglas re-emphasised the need to make progress on building up reserves again.’

This is all at leisure. However urgency is evident in the joint officials’ memorandum five days later on the ‘Current Exchange Market Situation’

“Events of the last two days are a cause of concern. Since the beginning of January there has been a steady outflow. …The outflow in January was $370 million with a further $567 million outflow arising from repayments under a Citicorp facility and a Shipping Corporation loan held by the Reserve Bank. …ln the period to 27 February [26] there has been a recorded outflow of $447 million plus official capital transactions which have generated a further outflow of $99 million. …there has been some heightened speculation on whether a move on the New Zealand exchange rate can be expected. … market sentiment [appears] to be moving to the view that the New Zealand dollar would depreciate if the rate were floated in the immediate future. … If a strong expectation of an imminent devaluation of the New Zealand dollar does develop the government could be faced with large capital outflows which are likely to continue unless there is further, and substantial, increases in the short term interest rates. If large outflows persist, the government also faces the possibility of substantial losses on foreign exchange transactions if the dollar does subsequently devalue.” (26 February)

A run was on again.

The final officials’ memorandum in the sequence is the following Saturday 2 March. It recommended an immediate announcement that the currency would be floated on the following Monday. It was to be a clean float: no bands were set, rules for government intervention were minimal – for its own purposes and for sampling. The memorandum says, ‘ Although it is not intended to exclude intervention beyond the transition phase, this intervention would usually only occur in response to extremely disorderly conditions prevailing in the market.’ No such occasions have yet occurred.

Douglas completes the story by reporting that Deane had been sent to. Britain to brief Lange, and he briefed Palmer as Acting Prime Minister. One wonders what Lange and Palmer were agreeing to. That measures had to be taken to deal with the run? Or to the precise form of exchange rate management, not just to deal with the run but for at least four years? And if it was the latter, did they understand all the ramifications of fiscal and monetary policy, the likelihood of overshooting, and the structural and performance consequences?

Conclusion

A change from a fixed-peg regime was almost inevitable, given the events ?f the June! july 1984 run, let alone the difficulties of exchange rate adjustment under Muldoon. Less certain was the regime that was finally chosen. The options ranged from a crawling peg to a clean float. In the end a clean float was chosen. Probably the following factors were important.

First, there was a group of enthusiastic officials including, according to Douglas, the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank and also those who wrote the exchange rate chapter in the Treasury post-election briefing. Why they were enthusiastic is less clear. It may have been because they had been traumatised by past exchange rate experiences, they may have been ideologically in favour of minimal government, and/or they may have had excessive faith in the efficacy of monetary control for macroeconomic management.

By July 1984 Douglas had joined the group. He argues that he did so mainly because of the issue of monetary control. Whether he was fully aware of the intricacies of the various exchange rate management regimes is unclear. Certainly as late as nine days before the float, Douglas still favoured a constrained, or even dirty, float.

It is interesting to speculate what would have happened if this policy had been followed. Presumably the mid-1985 appreciation of the exchange rate would have involved intervention and some major review of macroeconomic policy, as the direct intervention failed to restrain the appreciation or as the Government accumulated foreign reserves and injected domestic money. Presumably that review would have paid much greater attention to the role of fiscal policy, and to a revision in overall strategy. It is not unreasonable to argue that if the policy Douglas preferred a mere nine days before the float had been followed, the macroeconomic history of the New Zealand economy from mid 1985 would have been radically different, and much more successful.

But for most of the time the enthusiasts were held in check, particularly when practical policies had to be recommended. The discussions of the policies suffered front two fundamental weaknesses.

First, the officials never clarified their concepts, particularly as to the terminology, range, .and presumably details of the various exchange rate management regimes. That is why we must reasonably give Douglas the benefit of the doubt that he ever really understood the options facing him. This failure probably reflects the inexperience of officials in what was essentially a task of research and teaching – of mastering new concepts, applying them in creative ways, and communicating them to others.

Second is the extraordinary lack of attention to fiscal policy in the documents. The enthusiasts who wanted a clean float because they believed in the efficacy of monetary policy appear to have reigned theoretically supreme. Or perhaps the institutions’ thinking on the components of macroeconomic policy was excessively compartmentalised.

If so, this could have been a consequence of the Muldoon heritage, and its fixed exchange rate regime, which meant that officials could have only limited discussions on broad exchange rate matters, even within their institutional walls. The possibility cannot be ruled out that this censorship impaired their ability to think comprehensively about exchange rate issues. One cannot help wondering whether the analytic content and outcome would have been radically different if a few outsiders who had riot been so restricted had been involved in the discussions.

Behind all this is a greater issue, not unlike the curious incident in the Sherlock Holmes story of the dog which did nothing in the night-time. The history of the central economic debate in the late 1970s and the early 1980s was between the interventionists led by Muldoon, the monetarists, who are very evident in this story, and the structuralists. The latter group were Keynesians who saw New Zealand as a small open economy with its prospects dependent upon the thrust from the tradeable sector. For them, getting the real exchange rate right was critical. Where are their views in the official papers? One would not expect to see their views prominent in the Reserve Bank papers, but they are not in the Treasury papers either. It seems unlikely there were no structuralists in the Treasury in 1984. Were they cut out from the debate? Or were their contributions to the internal debate excised from the papers to the Minister, so as to preserve a picture of institutional coherence?

There were strong supporters of the role of the financial community among the government advisers. But who among them reflected upon the role of the producers? In such circumstances it is not surprising that the tradeable sector suffered after the float, while the financial sector boomed, until the profitability of the producers could no longer sustain the speculation of the financiers.

Ironically. it is the Keynesians who can give the best account of the. post-float behaviour of the economy, as the exchange rate of a savings deficit economy appreciated, crushing the tradeable sector and stilling growth. The detailed account lies outside the compass of this c~apter. But a marginally involved politician, such as Lange or Palmer, might reasonably ask where in the officials’ papers is an account which forecasts the actual behaviour of the economy after the float.

In his report on the float aftermath, Douglas describes some of the difficulties In the short-term financial markets following wrong assessments. He writes

“What was surprising was how little the players understood the way the new system would operate. Just about everyone got it wrong. ..It taught everyone an important lesson – before making a major change it pays to do your research carefully. There are more twists and developments than can ever be fully anticipated by all the players until you actually make the change.” (1987. p.148-9)

In the light of the longer-term events he could well apply the criticism to his officials – and even to himself.

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Notes
[1] I am grateful to E. Caffin, A. Endres, B. Wilkinson, and some unnamed officials for comments on this paper. An earlier version was delivered to the February 1989 Conference of the New Zealand Association of Economists.
[2] A complication to this story is the interest costs. But devaluations are large compared to interest rates; for instance to brake this 10 per cent expected devaluation, domestic interest rates would have to be 10 per cent a month, equivalent to an annual rate of over 200 per cent, above the world interest rate. In any case at that time the monetary situation was so loose, and interest rates were fixed, so that credit conditions would hardly have acted as a brake. It is not even necessary to be definitely sure there will be a devaluation. Under quite low probabilities the bet is still on. Suppose the cost of borrowing in New Zealand is I per cent a month, equivalent to 12.7 per cent a year, above the world rate. Then any devaluation probability above only one in ten still makes the ‘bet’ worthwhile. As the event gets closer, the minimum probability decreases, and the bet becomes more profitable.
[3] The paper followed earlier phone conversions between officials and the Minister. Page 17 of the unconfirmed Minutes of the Select Committee (1985) has the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank reporting that the officials had had ‘confirmed by telephone on 15 June the fact that devaluation was not an option the Minister wished and that they therefore presented other options’.
[4] Officials do not seem to have considered the possibility of a quasi-float, where the government would announce it would not, until after the election, require the Reserve Bank. to sell any further foreign currencies in exchange for local dollars. Backed by some liberalisation to the foreign exchange controls and perhaps price controls and tax interpretations which would have limited the recovery of costs arising from the purchase of foreign exchange at above official prices, this option would have protected the reserves and perhaps would have been more politically attractive to the Minister. In particular he could have blustered that the financial markets were off their head and that this was a temporary measure until they returned to sanity; bashing financiers has always offered good political mileage particularly in an election campaign. The danger of the strategy was that it could have appeared to support the New Zealand Party’s call for a floating of the currency.
[5] The Reserve Bank had withdrawn informally from the forward market In March 1983, and formally in August 1983. While it was active in the spot market, it was unnecessary also to be active in the forward market.
[6] During the first few days of the election campaign there were two minor events which caused Muldoon to claim that Labour had a secret plan to devalue. The effect of the allegations was to confirm in many market operators’ minds that Muldoon had a secret plan to devalue after winning the election, which he would then blame upon Labour. In my view Muldoon had. no such plan. He was so confident he did not have one, that he was innocently led to give public signals that were interpreted to the contrary.
[7] I was told on 19 June.
[8] A crawling-peg .exchange rate is one which is fixed each day but may change slightly (i.e. crawl) from day to day. New Zealand had a crawling peg arrangement from July ]979 to May 1982, when it was suspended as part of the freeze measures.
[9] References to this situation and debate will be found (or are alluded to) In. the Memoranda for the Minister of Finance, 29 June and 3 July; the File Note of the Meeting with the Prime Minister, 5 July; the Minutes of the Select Committee 1984, pp. 17, 19, 21-22; and Muldoon (1985), pp.131-2.
[10] The use of the word ‘possibility’ three times in four lines suggests that this section may have been the hardest to get agreement on, and was drafted late without time for it to be polished.
[11] It is also called a ‘free float’, a phrase this writer has difficulty with, given there is no such thing as a free lunch.
[12] The upper and lower limits in which the currency was permitted to float are called ‘bands’; hence the name ‘wideband’ floating.
[13] Although neither the 1984 or 1987 Treasury briefs provide such an account.
[14] For a detailed critique see Zannetti et al. (1984, 1985a). Official replies are Treasury (1985), Nicholl (1986), also Zannetti (1985b). Also see Read (1986).
[15] The caveat, ‘for a given national income’, is important because it relates to the savings balances in the economy, which are affected by the level of output. Here we focus upon the direct effect of an overvalued exchange rate on the tradeable sector, that is, on the part of the economy which exports and competes against imports. Unless there is an improvement in the terms of trade (the relative price of exportables to importables), or very strong world demand, the tradeable sector will contract.
[16] When preparing a feature article for the 1984 Listener election issue, I approached some of the Labour people. who were evasive –understandably. This was after the first run on the dollar was known about and gave a series of conflicting answers. These I interpreted to mean that Labour was not committed to an overnight devaluation. but expected to manage the exchange rate more actively, moving it down in a series of steps, presumably under some crawling peg regime.
[17] I have this from two reliable sources.
[18] In practice the reconciliation occurs through changes in income, changes in (gross) investment, or changes in the government net savings {indicated by government, or budget, deficit). For policy purposes this means that any real exchange rate is unsustainable unless there is a consistent monetary and fiscal policy. Conversely a particular monetary and fiscal policy will set a particular exchange rate. This is the rate sufficient to generate the balance of payments deficit equal to the domestic savings deficit. Government monetary and fiscal policy thus has a major influence on the exchange rate. Under a floating regime the rate is not set by the market; rather it is set by the market and the monetary and fiscal policy of the government.
If that fiscal policy is slack, with a large government deficit and if private sayings arc low, there will be a significant savings shortage and the current external deficit will have to be large. The high domestic deficit will generate high domestic interest rates necessary to attract foreign savings, and that will lift the real exchange rate to increase the balance of payments deficit. Thus the productive capacity of the economy will be compromised directly, by a contraction in the tradeable sector, and indirectly, by a reduction in investment as a result of high interest rates and economic stagnation, as happened after the March 1985 float.
[19] Where managed floating, as defined above, is included is unclear. One paragraph seems to suggest that a wide band float or a regular adjustment of the peg are classified as pegged floating, but they ‘resemble floaters’ (p.3). There is a table, presumably from an overseas source, which lists the 147 IMF country currency arrangements, including the United Kingdom and the United States as ‘independent floaters. (although there was management of both currencies at least via central bank interest rate intervention). Even more strangely New Zealand is listed as ‘managed floating’; most observers were under the impression that in September 1984 the currency was pegged to a basket of foreign currencies!
[20] The paper seems to require the interpretation of floating to mean somewhere near the clean float end of managed floating.
[21] This was in those halcyon days when economists outside government thought that their economic writings were read seriously by officials.
[22] Australia has now been off a clean float for over three years, but there has been no comparable change in New Zealand policy.
[23] But it is considered in Spencer (1986).
[24] Unlike the Bank, who seemed to mean any of the options which did not involve a fixed peg
[25] This would arise from the rational expectations analysis which is evident in the Treasury 1984 post-election briefing.
[26] Transactions shown for 27 February were actually initiated two days earlier.

References
Books and Articles
Bollard, A. E. and B. H. Easton, 1985. Markets. Regulation. and Pricing, Research Paper 31, Wellington, N. Z. Institute of Economic Research.
Brady, P. R. and K. G. Duggan, 1984. Exchange Rate Po/icy; Background Issues. Wellington, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Buckle, R. A. and M. J. Pope, 1985. ‘Do Exchange Rates Need un Anchor? NZIER Quarter/y Predictions, March, pp. 42-47.
Douglas, R., 1980. There’s Got To Be Better Way! Wellington, Fourth Estate
Douglas, R. and L. Callan, 1987. Toward Prosperity. Auckland, David Bateman.
Easton, Brian, 1985. ‘Devaluation!’, Listener, 27 July, p.30.
Economic Summit Conference, 1984. A Briefing on the New Zea/and Economy. Wellington, Government Printer.
Keenan, P., 1985a. ‘ A Case for Floating the Exchange Rate’, NZIER Quarterly Predictions, March, pp.48-53.
Keenan, P., 1985b. ‘Barriers to Entry in the Foreign Exchange Market’, in Bollard & Easton (1985), pp.19-52.
Muldoon, R. D., 1985. The New Zealand Economy; A Personal View. Auckland, Endeavour Press.
Nicholl, P. E., 1985. ‘Opening “The Books”: A Response’, N.Z. Economic Papers, v.19, pp.117-122.
Pope, M., 1984. Floating the Exchange Rate. Discussion Paper no.28, Victoria University of Wellington, Dept of Economics.
Read, P. L., 1986. ‘The Treasury’s Fundamental Framework.’ Paper to the N.Z. Association of Economists, Aug. 1986.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 1984. Post-Election Paper to the Minister of Finance on the Areas of Responsibility of the Reserve Bank. Wellington, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand, 1986. Financial Policy Reform. Wellington, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Sherwin, M. A., 1986. ‘Exchange Rate Policy Developments’, in Reserve Bank of New Zealand (1986), pp.127-134
Spencer, G. H., 1986. ‘A Comparison of Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes’, in Reserve Bank of New Zealand (1986), pp. 137-147.
Treasury, 1984. Economic Management. Wellington, Government Printer.
Zannetti, G., 1985. ‘Opening “The Books”: Reply’, N.Z. Economic Papers, v.19, pp.123-125.
Zannetti, G. et al. 1984. ‘Opening “The Books”: A Review Article’, N.Z. Economic Papers, v.18, pp.13-30.
Zannetti, G. et al. 1985. Opening the Books. Discussion Paper no.30, Victoria University of Wellington, Dept of Economics.

Official Papers
The list of the official papers used in preparing this chapter is available from the author. They have been mainly obtained by requests under the Official Information Act.

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ECONOMIC JUSTICE FOR ALL

A New Zealand Economist Looks at the  the US Catholic Bishops’ Pastoral Letter on Catholic Social Teaching and the US Economy

Paper to the Winter Series ;The Soul of New Zealand – Who are We?’, Wadestown Presbyterian Church, July 19, 1989. It was published in “The Catholic Review” Number 1, November 1989.

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy;

Given the role of economists in the turmoil of the last few years, this economist is surprised that any of us should be asked to comment upon such an important topic as the Soul of New Zealand. We should be listening to the people; not the telling them.

However perhaps such a task requires some structuring, in which case I might usefully provide a little by responding to some theological commentary on economic policy, before we open the session to general discussion, with an emphasis on the economist listening.

I could have chosen as a theological commentary the Reverend Richard Randerson’s Christian Ethics and the New Zealand Economy, particularly for its indigenous content. But if you had wanted to discuss that interesting contribution then it would be better to hear from Richard directly. I urge you to invite him on some suitable occasion.

What I thought would be better was to look at an overseas text. The one I have chosen is The Pastoral Letter on Catholic Social Teaching and the US Economy, published by the United States Catholic bishops in 1986.

It may seem odd to select a Catholic sourced economic text for discussion in such a protestant environment as this church. One reason is in the spirit of ecumenism. But there were also four practical reasons.

First, unlike most protestant church’s Catholicism predates the industrial revolution, and Catholic theologians more than most others have had to struggle with the relationship between their religion and the modern capitalist economy. I shall have more to say about this.

Second, the United States economy is the greatest industrial economy in the world, where most of the fundamental economic issues which confront us in New Zealand are writ even larger. Because the bishops have had to ponder long upon these issues, we may learn something from them.

Third, because they have pondered long — and in my opinion wisely — their conclusions are likely to have considerable influence upon theological thinking in all parts of the religious world. This is already happening in America. I was recently invited by Crosslink to review a book of essays written by evangelical protestants, mainline protestants, Catholics and Jews on the pastoral letter. It shows a vigorous debate is already underway in the United States; I shall refer to some of it. If the pastoral letter is not so well known in New Zealand, I am sure it will become so. I hope this presentation will stimulate your interest.

And fourth, the bishops say that they have not written

‘a blueprint for the economy. It does not embrace any particular theory of how the economy works, nor does it attempt to resolve the disputes between different schools of economic thought.’ (p.ix)

That is a sensible theological approach. Theologians have no particular expertise in tackling the technical questions of, for instance, optimal industrial assistance, or what should be the monetary and fiscal stance. That is the economist’s job, and while I would not wish to restrict the task to some secret or select clique, those who wish to join these debates need to acquire a level of technical competence which theologians seldom have. Their competence is, as the bishops go on to say

‘Instead, our letter turns to Scripture and the social teachings of the Church. There, we discover what our economic life must serve, what standards it must meet.’ (p.ix)

`What economic life must serve, what standards it must meet’. There is a challenge on which economists have no particular competence; an issue where we need to listen rather than to pontificate.

So what are the standards the bishops set? The full letter is over two hundred pages long, with 384 numbered paragraphs. Conveniently there is a summary of principal themes. I begin by listing the italicised sentences in that summary.

(i) ‘Every economic decision and institution must be judged in the light of whether it protects or undermines the dignity of the person.’

(ii) ‘Human dignity can be realised and protected only in a community.’

(iii) ‘All people have a right to participate in the economic life of society.’

(iv) ‘All members of society have a special obligation to the poor and vulnerable.’

(v) ‘Human rights are the minimum conditions for life in community.’  (They go on ‘In Catholic teaching, human rights include not only civil and political rights but also economic rights … all people have a right to life, food, clothing, shelter, rest, medical care, education, and employment.’)

(vi) ‘Society as a whole, acting through public and private institutions, has a moral responsibility to enhance human dignity and protect human rights.’

At a personal level I find much comfort that a group of people from a very different intellectual and social background on the other side of the world should articulate a philosophy very similar to my own. But I would be failing in my responsibilities if I did not put them under some scrutiny from the perspective of a New Zealand economist.

The first problem is that the bishops provide no adequate definition of what they mean by `human dignity’. They do refer to a papal encyclical Mater et Magistra which articulates the principle that economic life must be measured against the dignity of the human person realised in community with others. They refer to the ‘transcendent worth – the sacredness – of human beings’ (p.15).  And they go through the scriptures to describe the moral vision of the Christian.

I take it that we are to treat ‘human dignity’ as some fundamental concept, undefinable in terms of more fundamental concepts, but which can be illustrated by example. In that technical sense it has the same status as the New Right’s objective of freedom, although I imagine that Christians would want to argue that human dignity is a much richer concept.

This follows because the notion of human dignity as described in the letter emphasises man in society, that is socialised man. I am using here the term ‘man’ to encompass both genders. These terms came from the nineteenth century, when social philosophers were less careful about giving equal status and involvement to women. I apologise to those of you who are concerned with such gender issues – and I hope that is the whole audience – but we have no adequate alternative term to ‘socialised man’.

Socialised man emphasises that each of us is not a being which arose independently of the society in which we live, who can function independently of that society. We are not Athenas who sprung fully clothed and fully armed out of the head of Zeus. Rather we have evolved and live in a society which has nurtured us.

Most people may feel this is a trivial point, but I think the bishops are right to emphasise it. The rational economic man of neo-classical economics is not an example of socialised man, and the characterisation of the human condition by the New Right is even less so. The bishops would judge such characterisations as spiritually dead, and rightly so. Social philosophies and policies based upon such foundations would be judged to be against what they describe as the Christian vision of economic life.

I do not want tonight to judge current economic policies by the Christian vision. That is for the audience. But they may be relieved to know that in our past human dignity was a central notion of our social policy. In particular the social security debate of the late nineteenth century used the concept widely, particularly in the notion that the aged should be treated with dignity in their pension entitlement. Not, of course, did we always attain that objective, but the notion of the entitlement to a social security benefit and other publicly provided services being by right, rather than by the liberality of the powerful, has been an integral part of our social policy.

Perhaps that is less true today, although the recent Royal Commission on Social Policy while not using the term ‘human dignity’, it did refer to the ‘intrinsic moral worth’ of individual humans.

The Royal Commission on Social Security which reported in 1972 referred to the human dignity approach, as you would expect in its review of our social security debate. But the Commission used a more instrumental definition of social objectives, when they described the objectives of the social security system, and by implication of public policy in the wider society, as

‘to ensure, within limitations which may be imposed by physical or other disabilities, that everyone is able to enjoy a standard of living much like that of the rest of the community, and thus able to feel a sense of participation and belonging to the community.’ (p.65)

Perhaps I should add a verbal quote does not quite capture the fact that the Commission italicised the phrase ‘a sense of participation and belonging’.

The bishops expressed a similar sentiment when they said that ‘All people have a right to participate in the economic life of society’,  and that ‘all members of society have a special obligation to the poor and vulnerable.’ You might say that the US bishops are real New Zealanders, or that each are expressing some universal phenomena.

It is clear from the letter, that the bishops are very influenced by an American philosopher John Rawls, who published his seminal Theory of Justice at about the same time as our Royal Commission on Social Security reported.

It may seem surprising that bishops representing a religion as old as the Catholic Church should be so influenced by a recent philosopher. However Rawls is indebted to the eighteenth century German philosopher Immanuel Kant, whose supreme moral principle was a categorical imperative, which harkens back to Christ’s injunction to ‘do unto others as you would have them do unto you.’ We may take  the bishop’s philosophical foundations as rock solid.

Essentially, and I simplify, Rawls argued that social policy should be judged by the way it treats the least well off in society. His derivation was as follows. Suppose each of us were able to choose which ever society and economy we preferred. The only limitation is that we would not know what our status would be in it; whether we would be rich or poor, white or brown, male or female, intelligent or dull, heterosexual or homosexual, and so on.

In such circumstances we would be unlikely to select a particular form of society which favoured one set of characteristics over another, since we may well end up in that society with the less favoured characteristics. Rather, given this veil of ignorance about our status, we would prefer a society which maximised the minimum level of wellbeing. So if we were unfortunate enough to end up with the least favourable set of characteristics we would as well as possible.

That would result in a society which, in the words of the bishops, “all members of society have a special obligation to the poor and vulnerable”.

It does not follow from the Rawlsian approach that we should have exact income equality, even were that a meaningful notion given that people with different personal characteristics are likely to have different income needs.

A Rawlsian would argue that inequality was acceptable providing the poor benefitted from it. For instance, a state bureaucracy determined to iron out all inequality could well be so expensive to run, and generate so many disincentives against producing, that the poor had their standard of living lowered in comparison to a society with a moderate level of inequality. On a more positive note, the possibility of a degree of inequality may encourage people to take initiatives which generate jobs, opportunities, and commodities for those on a lower standard of living.

The bishops therefore do not abjure economic inequality, but they do say

‘We find the disparities of income and wealth in the United States to be unacceptable. Justice requires that all members of our society work for economic, political, and social reforms that will decrease these inequalities.’ (p.92)

As it happens, the evidence points to New Zealand having lower economic disparities than the United States, so we cannot be sure what the bishops would say about New Zealand. However I suspect they would be concerned about our poorest, particularly those who fall through the social security net perhaps because they have inadequate housing or health. Nor would the bishops likely to be happy with the differences in the economic statuses between men and women. And quite frankly, I would be much too embarrassed to even show them the evidence of the substantial disparities between Pakeha and Māori.

It is very easy at this stage to come back with the standard New Right response that the poor are poor through their own faults. It would be foolish to argue there are no poor who have defects which have led them into poverty — one would have virtually abandon the notion of free will to rule out such possibilities.

But even acknowledging the possibility of there being some who are poor through their own faults, the evidence points to the majority of the poor, here and overseas, trapped in that state for ‘structural’ reasons. It is the way society is organised that keeps them there, not their own shortcomings.

In arguing this, it is unnecessary to equate poverty with material deprivation. The Royal Commission on Social Security’s notion of ‘inability to be able to participate and belong to society’ is the encompassing notion.

The bishop’s go a step further when they argue that

‘Social justice implies that persons have an obligation to be active and productive participants in the life of society and that society has a duty to enable them to participate in this way.’ (p.36)

Providing, as I am sure is the bishop’s intention, that the notion of positive participation in the life of society is interpreted widely, I do not have many difficulties with their notion of ‘contributive justice’. What is unclear is what happens to those who do not fulfil the obligation. What are society’s duties towards them?

This question may be a bit theoretical when the main issue we, and the United States, face is that there so many people willing to fulfil their obligation to contribute to society, but unable to do so because society is failing in its duty by not offering them the opportunity. That group includes the structurally poor, and the unemployed.

The bishops are very strong on the need for full employment.

‘Full employment is the foundation of the just society.’ (p.69)

Thus they echo the New Zealand perception that full employment is the foundation of the welfare state. Given a current level of unemployment in New Zealand of between 7 percent and 12 percent, depending upon how it was measured, the bishops were particularly pertinent when they said

‘We believe that 6 to 7 percent unemployment is neither inevitable nor acceptable.’ (p.77)

‘Neither inevitable nor acceptable’. That sounds like a severe critique of current economic policies does it not? Moreover the bishop’s account, while caring, is not uninformed in economic terms. It goes on

‘While a zero unemployment rate is clearly impossible in an economy where people are constantly entering the job market and others are changing jobs, appropriate policies and concerted private and public action can improve the situation considerably, if we have the will to do so. No economy can be considered truly healthy when so many … people are denied jobs by forces outside their control. The acceptance of present unemployment rates would have been unthinkable twenty years ago. It should be regard as intolerable today.’ (p.77)

Are the economic pundits and politicians listening? That is for the audience to decide.

Such were the sentiments of the bishops’ letters that some critics described it as ‘socialist’. That terminology seems curious to New Zealanders particularly as the bishops write

‘The Catholic tradition has long defended the right to private ownership of productive property.’ (p.57)

However in contrast to the approach of New Right to private property they go on

‘Support of private ownership does not mean that anyone has the right to unlimited accumulation of wealth. Private property does not constitute for anyone an absolute and unconditional right. no one is justified in keeping for his exclusive use of what he does not need, when others lack necessities.’ (p.58)

This is the biblical notion of stewardship of property. One has it only in so far as the property is used for the pursuit of the common good. A little earlier the bishops had said

‘The common good may sometimes demand that the right to own be limited by public involvement in the planning or ownership of certain sectors of the economy.’ (p.58)

‘Planning’, ‘public ownership’. This is not the language of Rogernomics, nor the policies of the fourth Labour government. Those who thought their social democratic principles were fossils from an earlier era, may be surprised to learn that the US bishops are with them.

Actually we have been given a very peculiar account of modern political and economic thinking, because of the accident that the policies of the New Right have been most propounded by English speaking Reaganomics and Thatchernomics. There has been little realisation here as to just how isolated Mrs Thatcher is in European thinking.

For instance in the just elected European Parliament, there are more Greens than their are Tories, who are isolated from the main political grouping which opposes the socialist (slight) majority. The centre of that grouping are the Christian Democrats and their allies from a number of European countries. The expectation is that they, with the democratic socialists, will promote legislation to improve conditions for workers, to extend the social wage, and to provide regional and industry assistance.

Such a political thrust from the Christian Democrats is only surprising if one is surprised that Pope John Paul said

‘One cannot exclude the socialisation, in suitable conditions, of certain means of production.’

As the bishops say

‘The Church’s teaching opposes collectivist and statist economic approaches. But it also rejects the notion that a free market automatically produces justice.’ (p.58)

We can guess what the bishops’ view on proposals to ‘deregulate the labour market’ are

‘The Church fully supports the right of workers to form unions … to secure their rights to fair wages and working conditions. … Unions may also legitimately resort to strikes where this is the only available means to justice owed to workers. …. No one may deny the right to organise without attacking human dignity itself.’ (p.53)

By New Zealand standards the bishop’s section on `Working People and Labour Unions’ is radical; enough to make a Patrick Kelly leave the Labour Party for the Catholic Church.

By now it should be evident that the bishops’ pastoral letter on the US economy is rich and relevant. It is time to turn to some of the criticisms.

First there are the technical issues. I have little time for those who support Rogernomics with the claim that their economic reform was necessary because there was no other way. Economists who saw the need for major economic reform argued for quite different strategies than the one adopted here, strategies adopted overseas.

If someone insists there was no alternative ask what was so inevitable to require cutting the marginal income tax rate on the rich from 66 percent to 33 percent, making it one of the lowest — if not the lowest — in the western world?

Where I have greater problems is the time dimension. One argument for Rogernomics has been that goals such as the bishops propound are the ultimate objective of economic policy. However the government has had to do some savage things to the poor and unemployed in the short run to attain the objective.

I must say in fairness that the government has chosen not to attack verbally the poor in the traditional right wing rhetoric of their being benefit bludgers and scroungers. The necessary review and tightening of the administration of social security to reduce fraud has been done with some tact. In this respect the Labour Government deserves recognition for the promotion of human dignity.

But how are we to approach their argument that in the long run the poor will benefit from the policies which are being implemented, even if they suffer in the short run? Sounds a bit Calvinist does it not?

A good parallel is the findings of the Cartwright Commission on the activities at National Women’s Hospital. I take it that the doctors involved were sincere and believed they were acting in the best interests of their patients. I do not have the competence to judge whether the doctors were acting so, nor is it necessary to come to some assessment of this here. What I am clear about is that the patients were not adequately consulted.

The same issue applies to recent economic policy developments. The government may be taken as sincere and believe it is acting in the best interests of the poor and those on the margins of society, we need not judge here whether its treatment is the best available. However we can ask to what extent the underprivileged were consulted on the treatment that they have been given, to what extent they had it explained it to them, and to what extent they gave informed consent.

As the bishops say

‘The obligation to provide justice for all means that the poor have single most urgent claim on the conscience of the nation.’ (p.44)

In which case there is an obligation to consult them to find out what their claim is.

Let me free-wheel for a paragraph. In principle, our democracy has a system of one person one vote, although there is bias in it towards the rich who have the economic means to accrue unequal political power to themselves. But even ignoring this bias, is the logic of the bishops’ position that the poor should have a greater weight in the voting system compared to the rest us? Or is this a democratic heresy?

So much for the technical problems involved in the bishops’ approach. Let me turn to the deeper ones of social philosophy. Recall my earlier remark that the Catholic Church is older than the modern industrial capitalist economy, in the way that most protestant churches are not. It is no accident that tonight I am reviewing a text described as a ‘pastoral’ letter.

In some ways the fundamental break is between the organisation of society around the social solidarity of preindustrial society, and the individualism of industrial society. As one writer said ‘the traditional Catholic communitarian vision [is] of a human family ordered in organically related social structures.’ (Strain, p.190)

That is why the bishops are able to talk about the ‘common good’ with so little introspection, and it is clear that they do not merely mean the sum of individual preferences, which economists often interpret as the common good.

The procedure John Rawls proposes attempts to get around this conflict between the common good and individualism, but it does so at some cost.

I illustrate by drawing attention to the fact that my gender is obviously male. This is one of a number of personal characteristics which are a very integral part of me as a human individual.

As a result I find it most difficult to carry out the Rawlsian thought experiment from the position of a genderless human individual. It would not be me who is making that decision about my preferred choice of society.

(Of course I try to be empathetic to those of another gender. and that I have a mother, sister, wife, daughter, and women friends and colleagues helps me, I hope, to do this reasonably sensitively. But that is not the same as what the Rawlsian experiment requires.)

This is not an entirely theoretical issue. Suppose we said to everyone ‘what is the minimum income you would need to participate in and belong to society’, perhaps with the idea using the answers for designing distributional policy. For instance, if they were all to choose the same minimum income, and if this were practically deliverable, then it would be a candidate for the poverty line below which no one should fall.

However, everyone does not choose the same minimum income level for living comfortably, and as a general rule the higher one’s income the higher one’s required minimum standard of living. This may not be surprising, but its social implications are. First, it says that the Rawlsian veil of ignorance is not going to be much help in trying to quantify an acceptable distribution policy.

Second, it says if the rich knew how really poor were the poor, and they accepted the bishops’ social philosophy they would be appalled. Fortunately ignorance protects them from such a fate.

There is another strange thing about the Rawlsian thought experiment. I am expected to act selfishly behind my veil of ignorance. But perhaps I am not totally selfish. That reinforces the conclusion to the existence of some common good above the sum of our selfish decries.

I guess what I am bridling at is the Treasury-type line which starts by noting that people make selfish decisions on occasions, and then goes on to argue that we should design public policy on the assumption that people always make selfish decisions.

A further problem with the Rawlsian approach is that it is not sufficiently comprehensive to lead to a complete economic policy, even if we can agree on how economies work, we could not generate a complete economic policy from mere Rawlsian principles.

This is getting a bit abstract, so I offer the easy illustration. Where would the Treaty of Waitangi fit into the bishops’ account, if they had been writing about the New Zealand economy rather than the US one? I do not think the Treaty, and treaty issues, are just an add on, but I do not see how easily to extend the pastoral letter to cover it. In other words there may well be important social issues not covered by the pastoral letter.

The majority of my criticisms are in the spirit of the pastoral letter; ones the bishops are likely to respond positively to. But I have tried to touch upon the criticisms of the New Right, particularly their concerns about the tensions between individualism and social solidarity. Those tensions loom large in any protestant assessment of the issues too.

The bishops were not unaware of them; after all the letter was written during the height of Reaganomics, and in many ways is designed as a response to that political philosophy, albeit a positive response rather than a carping one.

I think that is the way we have to approach Rogernomics and the economic policies of the fourth Labour Government. That applies as much to its supporters as to its critics. We lack a sound, comprehensive and cogent philosophical account of what Rogernomics stands for, and as yet the criticisms are fragmentary rather than as profound as, say, the pastoral letter.

Ultimately those accounts are about articulating the soul of New Zealand. What then is the role of the religious person in articulating this soul of a secular society? The spirit of the bishops’ pastoral letter provides a guide when they say

‘Sustaining a common culture and a common commitment to moral values is not easy in our world … One of our chief hopes in writing this letter is to encourage and contribute to the development of the common ground.’ (p. 11)

New Zealanders today feel the loss of the articulation of the nation’s soul more than at any time in my life. By debating such overseas contributions as the pastoral letter, and by doing so evolving their own indigenous account —  including incorporating other sources such as the Māori perspectives — the religious can make a distinctive contribution to that common good. I would have thought such a purpose would be high among their priorities. Let us begin.

ECONOMIC JUSTICE FOR ALL

A New Zealand Economist Looks at the  the US Catholic Bishops’ Pastoral Letter on Catholic Social Teaching and the US Economy

 

Paper to the Winter Series “The Soul of New Zealand – Who are We?”, Wadestown Presbyterian Church, July 19, 1989. It was published in “The Catholic Review” Number 1, November 1989.

 

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy;

 

Given the role of economists in the turmoil of the last few years, this economist is surprised that any of us should be asked to comment upon such an important topic as the Soul of New Zealand. We should be listening to the people; not the telling them.

 

However perhaps such a task requires some structuring, in which case I might usefully provide a little by responding to some theological commentary on economic policy, before we open the session to general discussion, with an emphasis on the economist listening.

 

I could have chosen as a theological commentary the Reverend Richard Randerson’s “Christian Ethics and the New Zealand Economy”, particularly for its indigenous content. But if you had wanted to discuss that interesting contribution then it would be better to hear from Richard directly. I urge you to invite him on some suitable occasion.

 

What I thought would be better was to look at an overseas text. The one I have chosen is “The Pastoral Letter on Catholic Social Teaching and the US Economy”, published by the United States catholic bishops in 1986.

 

It may seem odd to select a Catholic sourced economic text for discussion in such a protestant environment as this church. One reason is in the spirit of ecumenism. But there were also four practical reasons.

 

First, unlike most protestant church’s Catholicism predates the industrial revolution, and Catholic theologians more than most others have had to struggle with the relationship between their religion and the modern capitalist economy. I shall have more to say about this.

 

Second, the United States economy is the greatest industrial economy in the world, where most of the fundamental economic issues which confront us in New Zealand are writ even larger. Because the bishops have had to ponder long upon these issues, we may learn something from them.

 

Third, because they have pondered long – and in my opinion wisely -their conclusions are likely to have considerable influence upon theological thinking in all parts of the religious world. This is already happening in America. I was recently invited by Crosslink to review a book of essays written by evangelical protestants, mainline protestants, Catholics and Jews on the pastoral letter. It shows a vigorous debate is already underway in the United States; I shall refer to some of it. If the pastoral letter is not so well known in New Zealand, I am sure it will become so. I hope this presentation will stimulate your interest.

 

And fourth, the bishops say that they have not written

“a blueprint for the economy. It does not embrace any particular theory of how the economy works, nor does it attempt to resolve the disputes between different schools of economic thought.” (p.ix)

 

That is a sensible theological approach. Theologians have no particular expertise in tackling the technical questions of, for instance, optimal industrial assistance, or what should be the monetary and fiscal stance. That is the economist’s job, and while I would not wish to restrict the task to some secret or select clique, those who wish to join these debates need to acquire a level of technical competence which theologians seldom have. Their competence is, as the bishops go on to say

 

“Instead, our letter turns to Scripture and the social teachings of the Church. There, we discover what our economic life must serve, what standards it must meet.” (p.ix)

 

`What economic life must serve, what standards it must meet’. There is a challenge on which economists have no particular competence; an issue where we need to listen rather than to pontificate.

 

So what are the standards the bishops set? The full letter is over two hundred pages long, with 384 numbered paragraphs. Conveniently there is a summary of principal themes. I begin by listing the italicised sentences in that summary.

 

(i) “Every economic decision and institution must be judged in the light of whether it protects or undermines the dignity of the person.”

 

(ii) “Human dignity can be realised and protected only in a community.”

 

(iii) “All people have a right to participate in the economic life of society.”

 

(iv) “All members of society have a special obligation to the poor and vulnerable.”

 

(v) “Human rights are the minimum conditions for life in community.”  (They go on “In Catholic teaching, human rights include not only civil and political rights but also economic rights …. all people have a right to life, food, clothing, shelter, rest, medical care, education, and employment’.”)

 

(vi) “Society as a whole, acting through public and private institutions, has a moral responsibility to enhance human dignity and protect human rights.”

 

At a personal level I find much comfort that a group of people from a very different intellectual and social background on the other side of the world should articulate a philosophy very similar to my own. But I would be failing in my responsibilities if I did not put them under some scrutiny from the perspective of a New Zealand economist.

 

The first problem is that the bishops provide no adequate definition of what they mean by `human dignity’. They do refer to a papal encyclical “Mater et Magistra” which articulates the principle that economic life must be measured against the dignity of the human person realised in community with others. They refer to the `transcendent worth – the sacredness – of human beings’ (p.15).  And they go through the scriptures to describe the moral vision of the Christian.

 

I take it that we are to treat `human dignity’ as some fundamental concept, undefinable in terms of more fundamental concepts, but which can be illustrated by example. In that technical sense it has the same status as the New Right’s objective of freedom, although I imagine that Christians would want to argue that human dignity is a much richer concept.

 

This follows because the notion of human dignity as described in the letter emphasises man in society, that is socialised man. I am using here the term `man’ to encompass both genders. These terms came from the nineteenth century, when social philosophers were lees careful about giving equal status and involvement to women. I apologise to those of you who are concerned with such gender issues – and I hope that is the whole audience – but we have no adequate alternative term to `socialised man’.

 

Socialised man emphasises that each of us is not a being which arose independently of the society in which we live, who can function independently of that society. We are not Athenas who sprung fully clothed and fully armed out of the head of Zeus. Rather we have evolved and live in a society which has nurtured us.

 

Most people may feel this is a trivial point, but I think the bishops are right to emphasise it. The rational economic man of neo-classical economics is not an example of socialised man, and the characterisation of the human condition by the New Right is even less so. The bishops would judge such characterisations as spiritually dead, and rightly so. Social philosophies and policies based upon such foundations would be judged to be against what they describe as the Christian vision of economic life.

 

I do not want tonight to judge current economic policies by the Christian vision. That is for the audience. But they may be relieved to know that in our past human dignity was a central notion of our social policy. In particular the social security debate of the late nineteenth century used the concept widely, particularly in the notion that the aged should be treated with dignity in their pension entitlement. Not, of course, did we always attain that objective, but the notion of the entitlement to a social security benefit and other publicly provided services being by right, rather than by the liberality of the powerful, has been an integral part of our social policy.

 

Perhaps that is less true today, although the recent Royal Commission on Social Policy while not using the term `human dignity’, did refer to the `intrinsic moral worth’ of individual humans.

 

The Royal Commission on Social Security which reported in 1972 referred to the human dignity approach, as you would expect in its review of our social security debate. But the Commission used a more instrumental definition of social objectives, when they described the objectives of the social security system, and by implication of public policy in the wider society, as

“to ensure, within limitations which may be imposed by physical or other disabilities, that everyone is able to enjoy a standard of living much like that of the rest of the community, and thus able to feel a sense of participation and belonging to the community”. (p.65)

Perhaps I should add a verbal quote does not quite capture the fact that the Commission italicised the phrase `a sense of participation and belonging’.

The bishops expressed a similar sentiment when they said that “All people have a right to participate in the economic life of society”,  and that “all members of society have a special obligation to the poor and vulnerable”. You might say that the US bishops are real New Zealanders, or that each are expressing some universal phenomena.

 

It is clear from the letter, that the bishops are very influenced by an American philosopher John Rawls, who published his seminal “Theory of Justice” at about the same time as our Royal Commission on Social Security reported.

 

It may seem surprising that bishops representing a religion as old as the Catholic Church should be so influenced by a recent philosopher. However Rawls is indebted to the eighteenth century German philosopher Immanuel Kant, whose supreme moral principle was a categorical imperative, which harkens back to Christ’s injunction to “do unto others as you would have them do unto you”. We may take it that the bishop’s philosophical foundations are rock solid.

 

Essentially, and I simplify, Rawls argued that social policy should be judged by the way it treats the least well off in society. His derivation was as follows. Suppose each of us were able to choose which ever society and economy we preferred. The only limitation is that we would not know what our status would be in it; whether we would be rich or poor, white or brown, male or female, intelligent or dull, heterosexual or homosexual, and so on.

 

In such circumstances we would be unlikely to select a particular form of society which favoured one set of characteristics over another, since we may well end up in that society with the less favoured characteristics. Rather, given this veil of ignorance about our status, we would prefer a society which maximised the minimum level of wellbeing. So if we were unfortunate enough to end up with the least favourable set of characteristics we would as well as possible.

 

That would result in a society which, in the words of the bishops, “all members of society have a special obligation to the poor and vulnerable”.

 

It does not follow from the Rawlsian approach that we should have exact income equality, even were that a meaningful notion given that people with different personal characteristics are likely to have different income needs.

 

A Rawlsian would argue that inequality was acceptable providing the poor benefitted from it. For instance, a state bureaucracy determined to iron out all inequality could well be so expensive to run, and generate so many disincentives against producing that the poor had their standard of living lowered, in comparison to a society with a moderate level of inequality. On a more positive note, the possibility of a degree of inequality may encourage people to take initiatives which generate jobs, opportunities, and commodities for those on a lower standard of living.

 

The bishops therefore do not abjure economic inequality, but they do say

“We find the disparities of income and wealth in the United States to be unacceptable. Justice requires that all members of our society work for economic, political, and social reforms that will decrease these inequalities.”(p.92)

 

As it happens, the evidence points to New Zealand having lower economic disparities than the United States, so we cannot be sure what the bishops would say about New Zealand. However I suspect they would be concerned about our poorest, particularly those who fall through the social security net perhaps because they have inadequate housing or health. Nor would the bishops likely to be happy with the differences in the economic statuses between men and women. And quite frankly, I would be much too embarrassed to even show them the evidence of the substantial disparities between Pakeha and Maori.

 

It is very easy at this stage to come back with the standard New Right response that the poor are poor through their own faults. I think it would be foolish to argue there are no poor who have defects which have lead them into poverty – one would have virtually abandon the notion of free will to rule out such possibilities.

 

But even acknowledging the possibility of there being some who are poor through their own faults, the evidence points to the majority of the poor, here and overseas, trapped in that state for `structural’ reasons. It is the way society is organised that keeps them there, not their own shortcomings.

 

In arguing this, it is unnecessary to equate poverty with material deprivation. The Royal Commission on Social Security’s notion of “inability to be able to participate and belong to society” is the encompassing notion.

 

The bishop’s go a step further when they argue that

“Social justice implies that persons have an obligation to be active and productive participants in the life of society and that society has a duty to enable them to participate in this way.” (p.36)

 

Providing, as I am sure is the bishop’s intention, that the notion of positive participation in the life of society is interpreted widely, I do not have many difficulties with their notion of `contributive justice’. What is unclear is what happens to those who do not fulfil the obligation. What are society’s duties towards them?

 

This question may be a bit theoretical when the main issue we, and the United States, face is that there so many people willing to fulfil their obligation to contribute to society, but unable to do so because society is failing in its duty by not offering them the opportunity. That group includes the structurally poor, and the unemployed.

 

The bishops are very strong on the need for full employment.

“Full employment is the foundation of the just society.” (p.69)

 

Thus they echo the New Zealand perception that full employment is the foundation of the welfare state. Given a current level of unemployment in New Zealand of between 7 percent and 12 percent, depending upon how it was measured, the bishops were particulary pertinent when they said

“We believe that 6 to 7 percent unemployment is neither inevitable nor acceptable.” (p.77)

 

`Neither inevitable nor acceptable’. That sounds like a severe critique of current economic policies does it not? Moreover the bishop’s account, while caring, is not uninformed in economic terms. It goes on

“While a zero unemployment rate is clearly impossible in an economy where people are constantly entering the job market and others are changing jobs, appropriate policies and concerted private and public action can improve the situation considerably, if we have the will to do so. No economy can be considered truly healthy when so many ….. people are denied jobs by forces outside their control. The acceptance of present unemployment rates would have been unthinkable twenty years ago. It should be regard as intolerable today.” (p.77)

 

Are the economic pundits and politicians listening? That is for the audience to decide.

 

Such were the sentiments of the bishops’ letters that some critics described it as `socialist’. That terminology seems curious to New Zealanders particularly as the bishops write

“The Catholic tradition has long defended the right to private ownership of productive property.” (p.57)

 

However in contrast to the approach of New Right to private property they go on

“Support of private ownership does not mean that anyone has the right to unlimited accumulation of wealth. Private property does not constitute for anyone an absolute and unconditional right. no one is justified in keeping for his exclusive use of what he does not need, when others lack necessities.” (p.58)

 

This is the biblical notion of stewardship of property. One has it only in so far as the property is used for the pursuit of the common good. A little earlier the bishops had said

“The common good may sometimes demand that the right to own be limited by public involvement in the planning or ownership of certain sectors of the economy.” (p.58)

 

`Planning’, `public ownership’. This is not the language of Rogernomics, nor the policies of the fourth Labour government. Those who thought their social democratic principles were fossils from an earlier era, may be surprised to learn that the US bishops are with them.

 

Actually we have been given a very peculiar account of modern political and economic thinking, because of the accident that the policies of the New Right have been most propounded by English speaking Reaganomics and Thatchernomics. There has been little realisation here as to just how isolated Mrs Thatcher is in European thinking.

 

For instance in the just elected European Parliament, there are more Greens than their are Tories, who are isolated from the main political grouping which opposes the socialist (slight) majority. The centre of that grouping are the Christian Democrats and their allies from a number of European countries. The expectation is that they, with the democratic socialists, will promote legislation to improve conditions for workers, to extend the social wage, and to provide regional and industry assistance.

 

Such a political thrust from the Christian Democrats is only surprising if one is surprised that Pope John Paul said

“One cannot exclude the socialisation, in suitable conditions, of certain means of production.”

 

As the bishops say

“The Church’s teaching opposes collectivist and statist economic approaches. But it also rejects the notion that a free market automatically produces justice.” (p.58)

 

We can guess what the bishops’ view on proposals to `deregulate the labour market’ are

“The Church fully supports the right of workers to form unions …. to secure their rights to fair wages and working conditions. …. Unions may also legitimately resort to strikes where this is the only available means to justice owed to workers. …. No one may deny the right to organise without attacking human dignity itself.” (p.53)

 

By New Zealand standards the bishop’s section on `Working People and Labour Unions’ is radical; enough to make a Patrick Kelly leave the Labour Party for the Catholic Church.

 

By now it should be evident that the bishops’ pastoral letter on the US economy is rich and relevant. It is time to turn to some of the criticisms.

 

First there are the technical issues. I have little time for those who support Rogernomics with the claim that economic reform was necessary and there was no other way. Economists who saw the need for major economic reform argued for quite different strategies than the one adopted here, strategies adopted overseas.

 

If some one insists there was no alternative ask what was so inevitable to require cutting the marginal income tax rate on the rich from 66 percent to 33 percent, making it one of the lowest -if not the lowest – in the western world?

 

Where I have greater problems is the time dimension. One argument for Rogernomics has been that goals such as the bishops propound are the ultimate objective of economic policy. However the government has had to do some savage things to the poor and unemployed in the short run to attain the objective.

 

I must say in fairness that the government has chosen not to attack verbally the poor in the traditional right wing rhetoric of their being benefit bludgers and scroungers. The necessary review and tightening of the administration of social security to reduce fraud has been done with some tact. In this respect the Labour government deserves recognition for the promotion of human dignity.

 

But how are we to approach their argument that in the long run the poor will benefit from the policies which are being implemented, even if they suffer in the short run? Sounds a bit calvinist does it not?

 

A good parallel is the findings of the Cartwright Commission on the activities at National Women’s Hospital. I take it that the doctors involved were sincere and believed they were acting in the best interests of their patients. I do not have the competence to judge whether the doctors were acting so, nor is it necessary to come to some assessment of this here. What I am clear about is that the patients were not adequately consulted.

 

The same issue applies to recent economic policy developments. The government may be taken as sincere and believe it is acting in the best interests of the poor and those on the margins of society, we need not judge here whether its treatment is the best available. However we can ask to what extent the underprivileged were consulted on the treatment that they have been given, to what extent they had it explained it to them, and to what extent they gave informed consent.

As the bishops say

“The obligation to provide justice for all means that the poor have single most urgent claim on the conscience of the nation.” (p.44)

In which case there is an obligation to consult them to find out what their claim is.

 

Let me free wheel for a paragraph. In principle, our democracy has a system of one person one vote, although there is bias in it towards the rich who have the economic means to accrue unequal political power to themselves. But even ignoring this bias, is the logic of the bishops’ position that the poor should have a greater weight in the voting system compared to the rest us? Or is this a democratic heresy?

 

So much for the technical problems involved in the bishops’ approach. Let me turn to the deeper ones of social philosophy. Recall my earlier remark that the Catholic Church is older than the modern industrial capitalist economy, in the way that most protestant churches are not. It is no accident that tonight I am reviewing a text described as a `pastoral’ letter.

 

In some ways the fundamental break is between the organisation of society around the social solidarity of preindustrial society, and the individualism of industrial society. As one writer said

“the traditional Catholic communitarian vision [is] of a human family ordered in organically related social structures”. ((Strain, p.190)

 

That is why the bishops are able to talk about the `common good’ with so little introspection, and it is clear that they do not merely mean the sum of individual preferences, which economists often interpret as the common good.

 

The procedure John Rawls proposes attempts to get around this conflict between the common good and individualism, but it does so at some cost.

 

I illustrate by drawing attention to the fact that my gender is obviously male. This is one of a number of personal characteristics which are a very integral part of me as a human individual.

 

As a result I find it most difficult to carry out the Rawlsian thought experiment from the position of a genderless human individual. It would not be me who is making that decision about my preferred choice of society.

 

(Of course I try to be empathetic to those of another gender. and that I have a mother, sister, wife, daughter, and women friends and colleagues helps me, I hope, to do this reasonably sensitively. But that is not the same as what the Rawlsian experiment requires.)

 

This is not an entirely theoretical issue. Suppose we said to everyone `what is the minimum income you would need to participate in and belong to society’, perhaps with the idea using the answers for designing distributional policy. For instance, if they were all to choose the same minimum income, and if this were practically deliverable, then it would be a candidate for the poverty line below which no one should fall.

 

However, everyone does not choose the same minimum income level for living comfortably, and as a general rule the higher one’s income the higher one’s required minimum standard of living. This may not be surprising, but its social implications are. First it says that the Rawlsian veil of ignorance is not going to be much help in trying to quantify an acceptable distribution policy.

 

Second it says if the rich knew how really poor were the poor, and they accepted the bishops’ social philosophy they would be appalled. Fortunately ignorance protects them from such a fate.

 

There is another strange thing about the Rawlsian thought experiment. I am expected to act selfishly behind my veil of ignorance. But perhaps I am not totally selfish. That reinforces the conclusion to the existence of some common good above the sum of our selfish decries.

 

I guess what I am bridling at is the Treasury type line which starts by noting that people make selfish decisions on occasions, and then goes on to argue that we should design public policy on the assumption that people always make selfish decisions.

 

A further problem with the Rawlsian approach is that it is not sufficiently comprehensive to lead to a complete economic policy, even if we can agree on how economies work, we could not generate a complete economic policy from mere Rawlsian principles.

 

This is getting a bit abstract, so I offer the easy illustration. Where would the Treaty of Waitangi fit into the bishops’ account, if they had been writing about the New Zealand economy rather than the US one? I do not think the Treaty, and treaty issues, are just an add on, but I do not see how easily to extend the pastoral letter to cover it. In other words there may well be important social issues not covered by the pastoral letter.

 

The majority of my criticisms are in the spirit of the pastoral letter; ones the bishops are likely to respond positively to. But I have tried to touch upon the criticisms of the New Right, particularly their concerns about the tensions between individualism and social solidarity. Those tensions loom large in any protestant assessment of the issues too.

 

The bishops were not unaware of them; after all the letter was written during the height of Reaganomics, and in many ways is designed as a response to that political philosophy, albeit a positive response rather than a carping one.

 

I think that is the way we have to approach Rogernomics and the economic policies of the fourth Labour government. That applies as much to its supporters as to its critics. We lack a sound, comprehensive and cogent philosophical account of what Rogernomics stands for, and as yet the criticisms are fragmentary rather than as profound as, say, the pastoral letter.

 

Ultimately those accounts are about articulating the soul of New Zealand. What then is the role of the religious person in articulating this soul of a secular society? The spirit of the bishops’ pastoral letter provides a guide when they say

“Sustaining a common culture and a common commitment to moral values is not easy in our world …. One of our chief hopes in writing this letter is to encourage and contribute to the development of the common ground.” (p. 11)

 

New Zealanders today feel the loss of the articulation of the nation’s soul more than at any time in my life. By debating such overseas contributions as the pastoral letter, and by doing so evolving their own indigenous account – including incorporating other sources such as the Maori perspectives – the religious can make a distinctive contribution to that common good. I would have thought such a purpose would be high among their priorities. Let us begin.

Counting for Something

Listener: 1 April, 1989

Keywords: Statistics;

The basic message in Marilyn Waring’s book Counting for Nothing: What Men Value and What Women are Worth is correct, as those of us who worked on related problems in the early 1970s are well aware.

The economist’s account of the world is a limited one, ignoring very important phenomena. Waring focuses upon its treatment of women and of the environment, particularly in the national accounts, that complex set of tables which are used to measure the total and the components of economic activity. Most readers will be aware of the acronym GDP, which stands for gross domestic product and is meant to be measure the market output of an economy.

Confining the measure to ‘market’ behaviour, Waring argues, leaves out most economic activity, including the unpaid household work usually done by women. But the impression given by the official accounts that women provide substantially less than half of the country’s economic output may merely reflect the decisions made by statisticians about what they measure.

On the other hand, some items included in the national accounts are less easily understood. The statisticians thought long before they included military expenditure in GDP. Waring thinks they got that wrong too, and contrasts the inclusion of the salaries of those who control the nuclear missiles, with the exclusion of the work of a young Zimbabwean girl who each day walks 22 kilometres to fetch water for her family.

There are other puzzles. How should the activity of reproduction (including raising children) be included? And what about environmental depletion (and enhancement)? There are no easy answers.

Knowing all this, it was with a lot of goodwill that I began the book. And that made my disappointment with it all the greater. I had hoped for a study one could have given economics students to read, knowing that it would expand their understanding and get them to challenge what they take for granted. For many it will not. There are far too many economic errors, and most students will turn away superciliously, saying Waring does not know what she is writing about.

For instance the book uses a definition of economics (Robbins’s definition) as if it were universally accepted; it is hotly disputed. The book characterises Gary Becker as ‘patron of the Chicago School’; Milton Friedman would be surprised. The book treats at face value a quotation from Paul Samuelson which is dripping with sarcasm, parodying the views of some economic extremists.

Another problem is that the book hardly refers to the greatest use of the system of national accounting, despite the fact that it is mentioned by one of the economists Waring consulted. Economists use GDP when assessing employment, inflation and the balance of payments. Since all these are market phenomena, the use of market-based measures of economic activity is justified. Whether we should want to distinguish between those in the labour force and those outside is a more difficult question.

There is a larger issue. Waring states that ‘most economists would hail the development of national accounting as one of the greatest achievements of modem economics’. I doubt that is true; of the 40 or so Nobel prizes in economics only one has been awarded for national accounting. Far more have been awarded for what economists call ‘value theory’, the attempt to explain what determines prices in an economy and how these relate to values.

The issue is far from trivial. Why, for instance, do economists use market prices when they are constructing the national accounts? The answer is that, starting from the premises of value theory, it can be shown, as in a classic but little known paper by Samuelson, that market prices are the ‘correct’ weights to reflect social value.

And this turns the spotlight onto value theory, something which Waring fails to do. But she would not be surprised that at the centre of value theory is a concept called ‘rational economic man’. The gender is perfectly specified, for value theory has little to do with women, except when they conform to the male stereotype. The reason why the Zimbabwean girl is left out of the accounts is because she does not conform to the assumption of rational man – she should get a job. The missile minder , on the other hand, does conform, does he not?

It is here that I break with Waring, and indeed with the Ministry of Women’s Affairs who are promoting the extension of our National Accounts to cover more of the activity of women. All they are advocating is forcing our account of woman into the mould of rational economic man, missing the point that the real need is for a radical revision of the fundamentals of value theory. Anything less than this will make women second-rate men, and leave us with an economic theory which is insensitive to half our population, to the environment and to all the nonmarket activities which, as women, children and men we value.

Who Seen the Little Lamp?

Listener: 17 December, 1988

Keywords: Literature and Culture;  Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History;

I was unable to attend the entire Mansfield centenary conference but I did get to the opening lecture, a brilliant inaugural address by Vincent O’Sullivan, professor of English at Victoria University.

Mansfield’s status as a New Zealander has always been a problem, because she spent so much time overseas. But O’Sullivan convinced me that in a very important respect she was not a European, and was able to break out of the European set patterns of thought more easily than her English contemporaries.

This was particularly necessary after World War One. We are familiar with Viscount Grey’s August 1914 remark that ‘the lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime’. Who then would be able to see through the gloom?

O’Sullivan argues that because of her New Zealand background, and because she was one of the first civilians to report on the devastation on the western front, Mansfield was one of the leaders, with the Americans, in post-war literary development.

This intellectual adjustment was required in other areas including the economy, for that war broke the dominance of the European economy, and the British hegemony in the world financial system. While best known for his contributions to macroeconomics, much of John Maynard Keynes’s work was in trying to find a new global financial system. Coincidentally he was the Gower Street (in London) landlord of Mansfield and her husband, Middleton Murry, and a member of the Bloomsbury group.

This came back to me while reading the London Economist of the same week as the Mansfield conference. In it there is an article struggling with thinking through national debt-funding strategies. I use the word ‘struggling’ for it is not often that the Economist admits to making an analytic error.

The reason it is having to rethink such issues is that in 1979 world real interest rates began to move up by about two to four percentage points above the rate of inflation. This might be attributed to a change in policy of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, but there are almost certainly fundamental changes we do not yet understand, The change was not as spectacular as after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914; economically it may be more fundamental.

There is a subtle but crucial mathematical relationship between real interest rates and real growth rates. If the Economist became confused over it, this column’s aspirations must be limited. But ultimately, a borrower has to have their income grow faster than the interest rate they are paying on their debt; otherwise they are in difficulties in the long run,

So if real interest rates shift up two to four percentage points, then for a borrower to stay in business they have to get their economic growth rate up by the same amount, That is not a very realistic policy, so practically the borrower who wants to avoid long-run disaster has to move to a higher-savings strategy.

It is not easy to come to terms with today’s world where, unlike the past, real interest rates are higher than the real growth rate. My guess is that the fallout from the financial crash of last year is going to be much longer than we might hope because high interest rates are going to eat into companies’ cash flow, dragging some down, and destabilising the rest. Consumers will face similar problems.

Perhaps I should emphasise the mathematics gives a long-run result. While the world goes through this high growth, debt-accurnmulating burst, the outcome is obscured. We could wobble on for years without coming to terms with the insistent logic. It will be as painful a period of adjustment as this century has seen. It could go on well into the next.

I am reminded of a forecasting seminar I attended in Paris in 1985. The mainly American audience was uncritically optimistic and unconcerned by the enormous debts that the US economy was building up. At the back of the room, an Australian business economist and I provided polite (in my case anyway) dissent. International debt has been a major issue for both our countries for over a century , and the experience sheds light upon those who are joining us. But we were not listened to.

It would be good to report that this distinctive Australasian perspective has led to economic policies better adapted for the new world economy. Alas it is not true for New Zealand. Instead we have slavishly, and extremely, followed the international fashions.

It was like that in 1914, when we uncritically followed the British leader to fight in a war on the other side of the world, sacrificing so many of our youth. Mansfield lost a brother and a lover, and that tragedy flows through her work. The recent national unemployment march on Parliament reminded me of that tragedy of the soldiers marching to war.

Racing Costs

Listener: 5 November, 1988.

Keywords: Environment & Resources;

Formula one motor racing is not one of my interests. All it seems to involve is pretentious cars continually turning in the same direction, making a lot of noise, wasting a lot of energy, and ending up where they started – a bit like political parties really.

Nevertheless my eye was caught by a book entitled The Adelaide Grand Prix; The Impact of a Special Event*, written entirely by economists and statisticians. The book is about the first Adelaide Grand Prix, staged in 1985 to celebrate South Australia’s 150th birthday, and the first grand prix to be staged in Australia. It is almost silent about the event itself, not telling who raced or who won, and the map of the circuit does not show whether the cars had to keep turning to the right or the left (an uncertainty I face with our political parties too).

The book focuses rather on the impact of the race on the city of just under one million people. While the promoters always pronounce these sorts of events a success (and the Adelaide Grand Prix did win international acclaim for race, television, and tourism presentation), those who suffer because of event and the costs they bear are frequently ignored.

For instance, consider the Grand Prix Board surplus of $2.4m (that is real Australian dollars). Actually the board ran its operation at a loss of $2.6m but the Australian Government in Canberra chipped in $5m, converting the running loss into money in the bank. What we do not know is whether Canberra cut back on some other grants. It might, for example, have given the state less to spend on roads or schools or hospitals.

This is what economists call a “counterfactual” proposition. When we evaluate costs we have to compare the outcome with what might have happened. Costs for economists are always

in relation to the alternative opportunity, which requires a counterfactual.

One chapter of the book asks what would have happened to road accidents given a counterfactual that there was no grand prix. It finds a rise in the accident rate in the weeks after the race, which when other effects had been allowed for, amounts to up to an extra seven dead and 273 non-fatal casualties, The authors conservatively estimate the cost of these “hoon effect” accidents at between $3.2m and $5.8m. So bang goes the profit of the Grand Prix Board. Its accounts may have been ahead, but other government accounts, such as hospitals’ , were set back.

Of course, these figures do not include the profits firms made from the extra tourists, nor the pleasure people got from the race (and the disturbance it caused them). The writers are indefatigable. They calculate that the motor race attracted 32,000 visitors who are thought to have spent $9.9m in the state.

The research team also surveyed residents about how they felt. Of the 79 respondents in the zone which included track, 20 said they would leave home for the duration if there were a race in the following year, 14 said they would the grand prix next time, 11 said they would get better tickets and 7 said they would move house. While in headcount terms the vast majority favoured having the race – even those in the close zone who suffered travel, work, and other disruptions – weighting for the degree of enjoyment and stress may result in less support.

Noise was also assessed. Surprisingly. at least to me who finds “broom broom” sounds irritating and worse, a good majority, even those in the closest zone, were not affected, The bigger complaint seems to have been about the helicopters and an RAAF F18 hooning overhead.

At this stage you might have expected these solemn economists to have offered an overall figure of the value of the grand prix. While numbers are scattered through the book there is no single summary figure that somehow sets out the goods and the bads of the event. Quite rightly so; even the few items I have described indicate that there were winners and losers in the population (as there were on the race track), and to subsume this all in a single number would have been to have missed the point of the diversity of public responses to the event:

Nor was there any list of recommendations. Rather this was research commissioned by the state treasury to enable a better understanding of the phenomena. In the end the decision was made by the politicians, enlightened by the analysis, that on balance the Adelaide Grand Prix was a “grand success”. And so it is repeated each year, with our Prime Minister as one of the celebrity drivers (but I cannot tell you whether he drives around to the left or to the right)

* The Adelaide Grand Prix; Impact of a Special Event, edited by J P A Burns, J H Hatch, T J Mules (Centre of South Australian Economic Studies, 1986).