A modest attempt to analyse Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Alfred Marshall, whose textbook was still in use 40 years after he died wrote ‘every short statement about economics is misleading with the possible exception of my present one.’ (The text book is 719 pages.) It’s a timely reminder that any short analysis of Trump’s tariff…
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A Bully in a China Shop? It is a mystery what Donald Trump learned when he did his BA in economics at the University of Pennsylvania in the mid-1960s. The Ivy League college has a good economics reputation, but even had Trump been a top student – unlikely or he would trumpet it – his…
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We need to think about the pattern of the economy in 2050 (or whenever), not just its level of production. Focusing on productivity (and population) growth is a trap. Long-term strategic analysis requires attention to the composition of those aggregates. Nor should we over-focus on GDP as the ultimate outcome of the economy or the…
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The Dangers of Delusions of Grandeur This is a column about MAGA – Make America Great Again. But as a prequel I scroll back sixty years to when I was teaching in England. I have fond memories of the students – bright and personable as they were. But their attitudes to England and the world…
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‘Perspectives of Two Island Nations’, Ann-Marie Schleich (ed), Ch 14, pp.185-194. Singapore and New Zealand have much the same population – a bit over five million people. They are both affluent economies. Because of their resource base and location, they have rather different economic structures. Yet the two small economies work together in international fora….
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.AUKUS is a backward-looking policy. The World needs to move forward. Economists think that the more interconnected countries are by trade and investment, the less likely warfare will occur between them. On many occasions countries have consciously intensified those interconnections as an alternative to war. Examples include the federation of the American states into the…
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‘New Zealand international Review’, July/August 2024, Vol 49. No 4, pp.19-20. I recall thinking when the ‘Agreement between New Zealand and Singapore on a Closer Economic Partnership’ (ANZSEP) was signed in 2001 that an agreement between the two tiny economies was a bit of a squib. In fact The deal has proved a cracker, providing…
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New Zealand is again having to reconcile conflicting pressures from its military and its trade interests. Should we join Pillar Two of AUKUS and risk compromising our markets in China? For a century after New Zealand was founded in 1840, its external security arrangements and external economics arrangements were aligned. Britain, then the international hegemon,…
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Whether Britain leaving the European Union was right or wrong, good or bad is for the Brits to decide. But there are lessons about international trade to be learned from Brexit, especially as it is very unusual for an economy to break so completely from its major training partner. In Econ101 we are taught Ricardo’s…
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I was asked by a Spanish journalist the following two questions (particular with attention to a historical perspective): How likely do you see (if at all) a transition from an economy based on primary products towards an economy where digital services exports might play an important part? I would also like to ask about the…
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Whatever the damage, especially to the British economy, Brexit has done us a service by illustrating the complexity of trade. Brexit is the only example we have of two closely integrated sophisticated economies severing trading ties. The European Union and Britain still do not have tariffs or import quotas between them – the stuff of…
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Does the US need to strike a grand bargain with like-minded countries to pool their efforts? What does this tell us about today’s global politics? Perhaps the most remarkable editorial of last year was the cover leader of the London Economist on 19 November 2020. Shortly after Joe Biden was elected president, that stalwart of…
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The deed is done, the doers undone Had I been a Brit, I would have voted ‘Remain’ rather than Brexit (or ‘Leave’). Instead, I have been bemused by the comic theatre of British politics, fascinated by what the Brits actual think and professionally interested by the revelations of the complexity of the interactions between Britain…
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This was submitted to a British news publication in late December, but was not published. Brexit is a great puzzle to New Zealanders. Britain and New Zealand are affectionate cousins with common ancestors back in the nineteenth century. We have gone our own ways; even so we have views of the other’s ways. New Zealand’s…
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The growth of farm output may be slowing. Specialty cheeses show an alternative strategy of further post-farmgate processing. Land for farming ran out in the 1950s. Farm production intensified. We shifted from more dollars of farm output by using more land to getting more dollars per unit of land. Among the challenges we had was…
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Extracted from a paper delivered to Wellington South Rotary; 22 March 1. The US is No Longer The International Hegemon There have been only two global hegemons – states with political, economic and military predominance or control over all others.. One was Britain in the nineteenth century. It was replaced by the US from about…
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Paper to Wellington South Rotary; 22 March, 2017 Thankyou for the invitation to talk about contemporary world economy. I am not going to give a blow-by-blow account of the challenges New Zealand currently faces; instead I am going to place them in a broad context. What I am arguing – I am uncertain, of course…
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This is a follow up ‘Brentry: How New Zealand Coped’, setting out some of the challenges which face New Zealand today. The strategic view that Britain needs to be in the EU remains universal among New Zealand strategists. However the Leaves did not vote geopolitically but on domestic considerations including, apparently, resentment of immigration and…
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This is based on a note that I prepared for a journalist. It is a lead into the next column which is on ‘Brexit: How New Zealand Might Cope’. New Zealand has an unusual situation in the world economy. Despite being among the affluent economies, its success is vitally dependent upon the export of some…
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Although completed a decade ago, Tony Judt’s history of postwar Europe presaged some of the challenges that it faces today. Shortly after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, one of our greatest contemporary historians Tony Judt resolved to write a book to sort his thinking out. It took fifteen years, but the resulting Postwar:…
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