Henry Lang: 1919-1997

Chapter 14 of The Nationbuilders

Keywords: Political Economy & History;

The day I finished the first draft of this chapter I walked past the Henry Lang Memorial sculpture, in a small park nestled between various government buildings, where once had been Broadcasting House, an architectural gem in its own right, and an important centre of the nation’s culture in general, and drama and music in particular. In the Great Hall of Parliament House, magnificently restored by the Warren & Mahoney partnership, Helen Clark, the Prime Minister announce a major funding and structural package, ‘Building Cultural Heritage’, for her adjunct portfolio, Arts, Culture and Heritage. Did I hear Peter Fraser and Norman Kirk chuckle? Henry Lang would have said, ‘absolutely first rate.’

The refugees who fled the tyranny of Central Europe in the 1930s benefited New Zealand’s cultural, intellectual, and government life far out of proportion to their small numbers. Perhaps the jewel in this studded crown was Heinrich Lang, who became Secretary of the Treasury the greatest successor to Bernard Ashwin and contributed much else besides to the New Zealand which was evolving in the second half of the twentieth century. But the Central Europeans are also an example of a wider phenomenon. While for much of the century New Zealand pretended to be wholly Anglo-Celtic, with a bare acknowledgement of the Maori presence hidden in the backblocks, there has always been a non-British immigrant presence in New Zealand. Once they looked, New Zealanders found themselves a much greater cultural polyglot than the conventional wisdom allowed.

Like most, but not all, Central Europeans refugees, Lang had Jewish ancestors. His grandparents were practising Jews, but his Viennese parents were not. Even so, they were persecuted after the Nazis took over Austria and his father, a successful industrialist, was detained for a time in a camp. By the time they fled, his father and mother, Anna, were divorced, and she had remarried a promising young architect, Ernst Plishke, so it was with his stepfather and mother that he arrived in New Zealand in 1939 at the age of 20.

Plishke was a gentile, but following the Anschluss his career opportunities had been limited by the marriage to Anna. They came to New Zealand because another Central European found him a job in the government architectural service which was under pressure given housing needs at the time. He did not have a happy time here. In part his formal Viennese background meant he did not fit in his stepson recalls he found the New Zealand visiting habit of dropping in disconcerting. He required New Zealand workmen to operate at much tighter tolerances than they were use to.

But neither did New Zealand quite know what to do with him. He was one of the first modernists architects to work in New Zealand, but his oeuvre is limited to little more than 40 houses (the best known is the Sutch House in Wellington), some churches, and Massey House, an eight-story office building with a glass curtain wall on Wellington’s Lambton Quay, the city’s first modern high-rise – since modified. (Parsons Bookshop, established in 1947 by Roy Parson an English migrant dedicated to promoting quality books, remains located in it to this day. It also contains a well-known coffee shop, established before café life was normal.)

Lang tells of Plishke going to some New Zealand furniture-makers, and offering to design them modern furniture. (Plishke had worked in the family joinery business.) They explained they had no need, showing him pictures in an European magazine from which they got their ideas. They were Plishke’s design. Later, he was turned down for the chair of design at the School of Architecture at Auckland University College, ‘seemingly because he was too modern in his approach and represented a European rather than English tradition of architecture.’[1] (The students protested vigorously.) In 1963 he returned to Vienna to a chair in architecture.

His major influence was on subsequent generations of architects, partly transmitted through the Architectural Centre, together with the nostalgia of an ‘if only.’ As Lang said ‘[h]e did a lot of houses and things, but there were few people a narrow sophisticated group, you know, the Bill Sutchs of this world who were interested. …artistically things were pretty backward here ’[2] (Sutch chaired the Centre for four years.) To put it bluntly, Plishke came to a bit of a cultural desert.

So did Lang, but he was a generation younger, had already spent time in England, and was fluent in English in a way his elders were not. Lang described Vienna as ‘a highly sophisticated, fairly formal sort of society. And much more structured in class terms than it was here.’ In his new home there was a ‘lack of class distinction which was obvious, and a lack of poverty which was agreeable. I always hated living in a city like Vienna where there were well off and there were beggars all over the place and people did not have enough to eat.’ Throughout his life Lang was to combine the gentlemanly courtesy of Central Europe and its commitment to cultural and intellectual excellence together with some fundamental New Zealand attitudes and values such as egalitarianism. Although ‘Mr Lang’ to Mr Muldoon, he was ‘Henry’ to everyone else. While he was a member of the Order of New Zealand (the highest honour, restricted to 25 living people), he was never a knight. ‘Sir Henry’ was unthinkable.

Lang’s first job was ‘factory labourer in a fruit packing outfit [in Petone] and I learned a hell of a lot.’ Including how to get on with New Zealanders. Within two years he became a foreman. Then went into a number of commercial jobs, followed by war service as a mechanic in the RNZAF. At the same time he was attending Victoria University College part-time. He says his time at Vienna’s elite Akademisches Gymnasium made the New Zealand degrees in commerce and philosophy relatively easy. He was a keen tramper and skier. And in a tumultuous first decade for the newly arrived, he married Tup (Octavia) from a Hawkes Bay farming family in 1942.

In 1983 Henry reflected on this period very positively, although it is difficult to believe that there were not times of uncertainty. ‘I was thinking of going into business, but I’m totally inept for that sort of thing I am not a business type you know.’ The story is told in the context of his rarely being discriminated against because of his Central European origins the buying of the barrels for the sauerkraut he was considering manufacturing being one of the few instances. (Later in the interview he mentions that some Hawkes Bay in-laws never really accepted him until he became Secretary of the Treasury after 25 years of marriage.)

He joined the Economic Stabilization Commission as an investigating officer in 1945, when Ashwin was still involved. Lang greatly admired Ashwin who was a mentor and model. In 1949 and 1950 Lang went full time to university, on a Public Service Commission grant. The Diploma of Public Administration did not make onerous demands, so he did many other things, read many other books. He said they were ‘the best years of my life’. By now the Stabilization Commission had been closed, so he went to Treasury in his early thirties, with a rich variety of experiences behind him.

Lang said ‘I am not an economist although I taught it [at Victoria University of Wellington after 1978] but I never really learned it.’ There is both a truth and a modesty in this judgement. The economics Lang would have done at Victoria University College would have been institutionalist, and he probably had little knowledge of the details of the theory developed from the 1950s. But he was intellectually sharp, and able to grasp the nub of issues. He would never be only an economist. He never confined recruitment to commerce students.

“It is obvious that all this work can be done effectively only if we can recruit and retain highly professional staff. The days are long gone when all that was needed were some accountants and a few economists. We now have a wide range of graduates, one third of whom have what are called ‘non-relevant degrees such as languages, geography, history or political science. I have always believed that in policy-making there is no such thing as a non-relevant degree and the main requirement is a first-class mind.”[3]

When approached to join the Treasury, one political science graduate demurred, saying he was not an economist. Henry replied ‘but can you write?’ When he ran Treasury, the Treasury officials could write. It was a lively and exciting place which actively encouraged debate. It suited Lang’s temperament and style of management to have disputes between, say, Keynesians and monetarists. He would insist they explore fundamentals, and agree on a common policy. If they could not, he would decide.

Lang’s kindness was legendary, and he could behave with principle. When Sutch was prosecuted in 1974, his daughter, Helen, wanted to return from London where she was working as an economic adviser in the UK Govt Economic Service. After interviewing her, Lang offered her a job, and then defied instructions from the State Services Commission that she was not to be employed. He also sent out a circular to his staff warning that he would not tolerate victimization. He had seen this sort of thing in Austria, and he was not having it in his New Zealand.

Lang joined Treasury when it was undergoing a development in economic analysis. Keynesianism was developing as a systematic framework. ‘More market’, the view that very often interventions were inefficient and ineffective, seems to have developed in the Treasury in the 1950s. (There is little evidence in the Ashwin-signed papers of such judgements, except in monetary policy. But they always show fiscal caution.) Lang was not necessarily the leading innovator. The most important theoretical contribution of the period may have been the balance of payments constrained model of the New Zealand economy written up by Geoff Schmitt (who is a valued source on Ashwin’s later Treasury years, leaving Treasury shortly after to work for the Tasman Pulp and Paper Company).[4] Lang would have provided a commentary on the paper.

Returning from being an economic counsellor in the London High Commission in 1955 to 1958 it was he and Tup’s OE together he became chief research officer at the Treasury, in effect principle adviser on economic policy, for the secretaries immediately after Ashwin were not economists. Lang rose quickly through the ranks to become Secretary of the Treasury, at the age of 49 in 1968, a position he would hold till 1977.

There was a struggle from the late 1950s between Treasury and the Department of Industries and Commerce over the direction of economic policy, with Lang the champion for the former (and Sutch the latter, notionally after he was sacked in 1965). Nominally it was an argument about protection. There may have been an element of temperament in Lang’s position. He was irritated by the insularity of many protectionists (although Sutch demonstrates some were not). His was a cosmopolitan world in which nations succeeded by engagement, rather than avoidance, so he objected to ‘Fortress New Zealand’.

The protection debate is the proxy for a wider one of how government could be effective in promoting economic performance. Treasury were (and are) sceptical about the efficacy of the government being able to over-ride the market. (Between the mid-1980s and the mid-1990s, it became almost total disbelief.) I&C (as it was known) believed that intervention could enhance the growth performance of the economy. (I&C’s successor, the Department of Trade and Industry, did not abandon a belief in its ability to intervene effectively until about 1980, partly arising from an increasing distrust of politicians in general and Rob Muldoon in particular, to make good judgements.)

The debate has occurred in other countries and at other times, often signalled at the political level by the establishment of a planning or economic development ministry to offset the power of the Treasury. Almost always the keepers of the public purse have won, partly because fiscal discipline cannot be avoided in the long run. They would add that they had the better arguments, and also that opportunistic politicians cannot be trusted to intervene solely to enhance the economy.

Lang took over the Secretaryship, shortly after Muldoon took the financial portfolio, following the 1966 collapse in the wool price, and all the complications that followed including the 1967 devaluation. (A similar situation occurred in the early 1930s which brought Ashwin to the fore.) Shortly after the Court of Arbitration settled on its infamous 1968 ‘nil wage order’ which disrupted the wage system, although arguably the recent shocks to the economy would have tested any wage setting system. Before long New Zealand was in a period of double-digit inflation (i.e. more than 10 percent p.a.) and disorganized wage setting. There was a lot more besides: the National Development Council planning experiment, microeconomic reform, and export diversification.[5]

Lang was at the centre of these policy issues, often personally. His negotiating skills, tested against the British on butter and lamb quota, were so cosmopolitan that Whitehall officials called him the ‘Hapsburg Diplomat’. It was he who suggested converting the original Kirk-Douglas contributory superannuation scheme into a two tier one with a government-provided tax funded flat rate universal first tier, and a private contributed earnings related second tier – arguably a policy insight of genius.

Institutionally, there is a cabinet minute that all expenditure proposals require a Treasury paper, giving it the power to comment on virtually anything which comes before cabinet. While the oral tradition of the 1980s had it that Lang and Muldoon instituted it, it goes back to at least the 1920s, and was probably formalized in the cabinet manual of 1949 (where Ashwin’s presence lurks). But even in economic areas which did not directly involve spending, Treasury could be very active, often with personal involvement from Lang. The standard arrangement was a desk officer who reported (in those days) to a section head, and thence up through a layered hierarchy with the Secretary of the Treasury at the peak. On wage setting, the desk officer often worked directly with Lang.

The Treasury from the 1930s to the 1970s might be called the Ashwin-Lang Treasury, very different from the primary focus on keeping the government accounts which preceded it, and pragmatic and practical in contrast to the one which followed it. The path of Dick Campbell as an advisor to Coates in 1926, through the Brain’s Trust of the 1930s came together with the keepers of the public purse from day one of the government of New Zealand, to the modern Treasury, which Ashwin founded and his greatest apprentice, Lang presided over. (The detailed history has to include the Economic Stabilisation Commission of the 1940s, but again it is an Ashwin institution, where Lang began his public service career.)

Lang wrote about the Treasury shortly after he left in 1977, although still in the careful considered style of a public official. Perhaps the article’s subtitle ‘Control and Advice’ tells it all.[6] The control of the public finance had been there from the beginning. From Ashwin’s time the advice role became as important.

He set down three key principles.
– The Treasury policy advice was competent and broad based. Under him the Treasury attained the excellence which it prides itself on (although not always attaining it). He described his best as ‘absolutely first rate’.
– While ‘Treasury has no monopoly on wisdom … it does have … the professional ability to stand aside from narrow, sectoral, geographical or partisan interests, to assess and analyse the available options without self interest, and to provide the Government with clear, independent advice and a basis on which it is possible to make rational decisions.’[7] (While accepting this as a goal, and acknowledging the Ashwin-Lang regime usually attained it, the Treasury is under constant fiscal pressure, and this biases its decisions towards fiscal conservatism. The ‘control and advice’ are bolted together.)
– A close effective working relationship with the Minister, or where the minister is ineffective for whatever reason – recall the long periods Nash was overseas in the 1940s – with the prime minister, and preferably both.

However the Ashwin-Lang Treasury suffered two weaknesses which appeared soon after Lang’s retirement. The first was that as numbers of policy analysts grew it was no longer possible to coordinate them through a personal network, even had the institution been led by someone of Ashwin’s or Lang’s charisma. This led to a structured hierarchical organization. But policy shifted from a pragmatic empiricism coordinated by one man, to an emphasis on theory (‘the policy framework’) for coordination. Unfortunately it became a narrow anti-empirical theory, which became the check for internal consistency even if there was not always coherence with the real world.

Second, the structure consisted of two economic policy divisions, in addition to two finance policy divisions, and four investigating – that is expenditure control – divisions, plus various operational activities which have now been largely shed. The internal economics division was primarily concerned with short term economic management – monetary and fiscal policy, taxation policy, and the budgets and mini-budgets. The external division was concerned with foreign trade policy, in coordination with other government departments. It is far from clear where economic growth fitted in. The issue appeared to be addressed by the separation of the internal economics division a few years later into Economics I and Economics II, the former to deal with short term macroeconomics the latter with the long term. The story is yet to be written, but at its heart is the inherent tension between fiscal control and growth policies.[8]

(In addition there was the New Zealand Planning Council, a quango outside government, was also nominally concerned with thinking about the long term (it having no operational responsibilities). However it was never really committed to ‘planning’ in any normal meaning of that word, and with the exception of the work centred around Bryan Philpott, had a very short term focus – no longer than the direction current government policy was moving. Much of the work, again Philpott’s being a notable exception, was of very poor quality – a combination of the conventional wisdom and platitudes – and little is recalled today. What is extraordinary about the Planning Council is how little influence it had, either then, or in the long term.)

The systematic refining of fiscal control that Lang describes in his 1977 paper ruled out Vogelist investment and direct promotion of industrial development. They were to be replaced with nothing but fiscal prudence and minimal market intervention, and a promise that these would generate a climate for economy growth. The analysis had no connection with the actual growth of the New Zealand economy in the previous hundred years. It was not necessarily based on fiscal extravagance, but the historic record is that fiscal subsidisation and other forms of industry assistance was associated with rising per capita incomes and expanding population.

The issue is nicely illustrated in Michael Bassett’s The State in New Zealand 1840-1984, an assiduous, if somewhat erratic, compilation of state economic activity in New Zealand.[9] Bassett, a born-again anti-interventionist as a minister in the Fourth Labour government, tries to put the case for the policies his government adopted in the book from a historical perspective. Yet the picture he presents is that the government actively promoted industrial development, with an outcome of broad economic success. On more than one occasion private initiatives were failing, and the state stepped in to assist a now successful business. On others – Tasman Pulp and Paper is an example – there would have been no private initiative without government support. In particular, under the First Labour government in the late 1930s and 1940s, the economy grew at a similar rate to the Asian economies of the 1970s and 1980s. Yet economic intervention had sharply increased. Conversely when the government stopped assisting industry there is no better example than the tenure of the Fourth Labour Government economic growth languished. While correlation is not causality, the unintended message of the book – if not the explicit message of its author – is that New Zealand’s economic success has been a partnership between public and private sector.

The story of the major projects, or ‘Think Big’ is commonly used to illustrate the dangers of interventionism. The energy based projects were successful in engineering terms, and some were constructed within budget. But while they may have been commercially viable on the projected assumptions, one assumption proved fatally wrong. The real price of oil (of world energy) was assumed to remain high and to continually rise. But just as the new plants were being commissioned in the mid 1980s, the world price of oil collapsed. By this time the New Zealand economy was stagnating, the economy disinflating with high nominal and real interest rates (which raises the cost of servicing the capital), while the exchange rate was over valued, so the projects’ commercial viability was heavily hit.

The contracts between the private owners and the government which established each project – unavoidable given the government supplied the energy on which the projects were based – had the public taking the downside risk. When the adverse factors came together, the government ended up writing off the loans it had made or guaranteed, adding to the fiscal deficit.[10] This was a fundamental defect in this Vogelism, but not so evident in earlier periods when the economy grew. This time the slow growth of the economy exposed the shortcoming, while the magnitude of the schemes relative to the total size of the economy, meant the failure could not be easily hid. The debate had been about whether the projects contributed positively to the economy. It should have been about what happened if they did not[11] It was said that the pre-1984 New Zealand economic system ‘privatised the profits’ and ‘so.cialised the losses’. That certainly applied to the major projects, including New Zealand Steel.

What if Lang had still been Secretary during the ‘Think Big’ debate? Treasury would have still resisted the government direct and indirect funding of the projects, and they would have failed, for the political circumstances was against it. But it is also plausible to argue that common-sense Lang would have required sufficient of an internal debate to identify the key element of risk. Recall that Ashwin set up Tasman so if it had been a commercial disaster, Fletchers would have first gone down the tubes.

Lang died before Bassett’s book was published, so I never had an opportunity to discuss it with him. But although he was more market and fiscally prudent, he certainly was not a supporter of the extremism of the post-1984 commercialisation policies. He may have wanted less government involvement and more market direction than, say, Sutch, but he would have still seen a place for a partnership between government, business and the unions, arising out of his Economic Stabilisation commission days, but also well grounded in the Central European democratic tradition from whence he came.

While he served Muldoon for over half his secretaryship, Lang had a far greater respect for Bill Rowling, who was his minister in 1973 and 1974, and whom he continued to see when Rowling became prime minister. (Later, Rowling was to select Lang as one of his committee to establish the Museum of New Zealand. In the memorial corner behind the marae their pictures are next to one another.)

The replacement of the Holyoake-Muldoon regime by the Kirk-Rowling one was a breath of fresh air to many senior civil servants. Lang showed his delight in a paper he gave to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs in August 1973. Nominally it was about the economic policies which would be consequent upon the sort of foreign affairs policy which Kirk had described the previous day, but while Lang was probably supportive of Kirk’s vision, he describes a view of the development of the economy which he would have advocated anyway. Much of the paper is the carefully argued officialese, but sometimes Lang offers a personal view.

The 1972 election had had a strong environmentalist element, not only in the appearance of the Values Party (the precursors to the Greens) but in Labour’s own campaigning. It would be improper for a senior public servant to address such elements directly, so Lang considered ‘The Club of Rome’s Limits to Economic Growth. He concluded

“Economic growth properly defined simply means increased standards of living. It does not necessarily mean increased production or increased use of goods. The fruits of growth may, for example, be concentrated entirely on improvements in our social system. Nobody can say that dealing more adequately with the sick, improving the lot of unfortunate minorities, using resources fro crime prevention, or spending money on the rehabilitation of criminals is undesirable. In other words unless we have economic growth we cannot use increasing resources to improve our standard of living. Thus if we have a choice – and this choice is open to us – that there should be no growth we automatically opt in favour of not raising our living standards in the widest sense. I think that the right answer – and this of course is a personal view – lies in trying to attain a somewhat higher level of economic growth than in the past but to use nearly all of the benefits in the field of our social environment rather than the provision of additional material goods. Moreover, unless we are able to sustain a reasonable rate of growth we will not be able to attain the degree of political independence hoped for …”[12]

No other Secretary of the Treasury has so publicly argued for the merits of public spending over private spending. He went on to consider economic structure:

“We need thus to develop appropriate policies for growth and structural change in the economy, in parallel with our changing foreign policies. We should be consciously aiming to create an open, adaptable economy, based on natural advantages and talents. We are some distance from that objective at the present time. Despite great advances in exports of manufactured goods over recent years , many of our industries are still micro-copies of the industries of the large industrial countries in both structure and techniques. That is a direct result of excessive protection and is in my view inappropriate to New Zealand conditions. We have much still to do to shape our industrial sector to our own individual strengths. I believe that a prerequisite tot he fulfilment of our foreign policy goals, is the implementation of effective innovative industrial policies, embracing market research, technology, fiscal incentives, tariff reforms, adjustment assistance for firms and industries, and an active labour market policy. …

“As abroad objective of foreign and economic policy, promoting both grwoth and independence, this prescription will meet with little quarrel. However, when it comes to the question of methods and some of the basic implications, such as the pattern of employment, then the voices of dissent will certainly be heard. There are those who believe that we need high and continuous protection for industrial development and the maintenance of full employment. Many people who hold such views are laso opposed to a more open economy generally, to membership of multinational organisations and to foreign investment. In essence they believe the right policy for us is a kind of ‘Fortress New Zealand’. And this bests fits our national aspirations. While such a policy is tenable it is inconsistent with the kind of foreign policy I have discussed earlier, and is also inconsistent with reasonable economic growth.

“I believe that the fears expressed by some manufacturers and trade unions at the prospect of a move towards a more open economy are exaggerated and under-estimate the basic strengths of large sections of our industry.”[13]

This is clearly an alternative to the Sutch vision of the economy, as it was then interpreted by many manufacturers and unionists, and indeed it addresses a key element to Sutch in the 1960s, who saw nationhood as being like other successful rich economies – the ‘mature economy’ as he called it – with a ‘balanced industrial structure Lang saw the case for a specialist economy reflecting the peculiarities and strengths of New Zealand. But it was not a colonial economy.

“… as a part of a comprehensive policy aimed at modifying our industrial structure, we should aim to use our native scientific and technical resources, for example by hiring out to a greater extent the services of the DSIR on a contract basis and where this is feasible, also purchase technology direct from overseas for application by New Zealand companies. This would lessen our present reliance on the technology provided by overseas companies and it should in time lead to the development of special technologies designed for New Zealand conditions and for the industries in which we have a special advantage. Technologies of this type could well have their own export value. Over a period of say 20 years we might create by such means, a New Zealand industrial structure which is unique, resilient, innovative, and competitive as our agriculture.”[14]

These were not the only sentiments of Lang which Sutch would have applauded.

“I am convinced that our highly educated labour force is sufficiently adaptable to develop industries and activities where we are as good or better than any other country. It also goes without saying that the extent to which we can develop an open economy is limited by the need to avoid unemployment. The maintenance of full employment in New Zealand is a permanent goal of economic policy. However full employment in the sense of everyone who wants a job having one is not sufficient. It is of equal importance that people get satisfaction from the work they do.”[15]

As it happens Lang is more favourably disposed to agricultural development than Sutch – perhaps more optimistic about its trading and pricing potential. And although it is not explicit, he would have used a different balance of micro-policy instruments. But one might envisage the two men in a civilised conversation, identifying their differences and agreeing to disagree on some key assumptions, rather than the conventional portrait of each at the other’s throat. They are more in harmony there than, say, Lang and the Rogernomes.

Not long after Muldoon took the premiership, Lang retired. Perhaps at 58 he thought he could make a new career. (This man who said he was ‘not the business type’ became a director of many major companies.) He was probably exhausted after eight tough years. Almost certainly he wanted to give his successor, and close friend, Noel Lough, a chance at the top job he was that kind of man. But undoubtedly a reason was his distaste for Muldoon’s style illustrated by the extremely discourteous way Muldoon treated Rowling.

The myths include his taking a senior official to see Muldoon shortly after he was elected prime minister. As they walked back he remarked, ‘my father said nothing in this world was perfect. But you have just met a perfect bastard.’ On another occasion when Muldoon acted unilaterally, Lang was heard to say, ‘he has a right to reject my advice, but he could at least show the courtesy of listening to it first.’

After he retired Lang discreetly flitted around the margins of economic policy. Muldoon cut him out. So did, largely, the following governments. Had his practical commonsense skills been applied to the 1991 health reforms for instance – health policy was always a special interest – a lot of its stupidities would never have happened. He turned his policy talents elsewhere: on setting cardiac surgery criteria; he was consulted on the 1989 review of the Prime Minister’s Department; he was a representative of the public on the Press Council, where he used his intelligence, common sense, experience, and sense of justice. He passionately promoted the arts: as chairman of the Wellington Sculpture Trust he is associated with many of the out-of-doors sculptures which grace Wellington.

After he died, the Trust created the Henry Lang Memorial Sculpture in the grass park surrounded by Parliament House, its Executive Wing, the Treasury building, the Reserve Bank building and the Bowen State Building which once housed Sutch. (You can also see it by looking from Plishke’s Massey House.) Lang would have been modest enough to see Brett Graham’s ‘The Navigator’ as a tribute to all the public servants who were ‘absolutely first rate.’

But there is a caution. He told Ann Beaglehole, ‘I mean the one thing you’re not to allowed to do in New Zealand, if you want to get anywhere at all under any circumstances, is indicate you’re intelligent. That’s fatal.’ He was echoing Michael Joseph’s Secular Litany, written three decades earlier. ‘That we may avoid distinction and exception/ Worship the mean, cultivate the mediocre.’

Sometimes one is at a watershed of history but realises it only years after. At the time of the 1984 Economic Summit, there was a furious argument among officials as to whether there should be consultation or whether the market measures should be pursued unilaterally. An anti-Summit Treasury official remarked to me something like ‘Henry is trying to get back involved in economic policy, but we wont let him.’ Nationbuilding had been abandoned.

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Biographical Sources
Beaglehole, A. (1986) Interview of Henry Lang, MSC 3806, Alexander Turnbull Library Oral History Archive.
Easton, B.H. (1997) ‘Regarding Henry’, Listener, May 17, 1997, p.60.
Lang, H. (1973) ‘The Relationship between Economic and Foreign Policy,’ New Zealand Foreign Affairs Review, August 1973, p.16-25.
Lang, H. (1977) ‘The Role of the Treasury – Control and Advice,’ Canterbury Chamber of Commerce Economic Bulletin, 610 No 4/1977.
Martin, J. (2000) ‘Lang, Henry George’, DBNZ Vol V, p.278-279.

The chapter has used ex-Treasury officials’ oral traditions surrounding Lang. They are yet to be recorded. [Added in 2004: Malcolm McKinnon collected many in his interviewing for Trerasury.]

Endnotes
[1] L. Tyler (2000) Plishke, Ernst, Anton’, DBNZ Vol V, p.415.
[2] Otherwise uncited quotations come from the Beaglehole (1986).
[3] Lang (1977) p.4.
[4] The balance of payments constrained model is described in B.H. Easton (1997) In Stormy Seas, Dunedin, Ch 2.
[5] For details see Easton (1997) Chs 5,6.
[6] Lang (1977).
[7] Lang (1977) p.5.
[8] But see B.H. Easton (1997) The Commercialisation of New Zealand, Auckland, Chs 1, 2, 6 for a preliminary analysis.
[9] M. Bassett (1998) The State in New Zealand, Auckland.
10] This is a simplification, for some projects were bailed out in other ways but still at the public’s expense.
[11] The economic debate got hooked on the question of the discount rate (roughly the rate of return required to justify public spending), as a result of Treasury being unwilling to publish its account of its policy to require a real rate of 10 per cent p.a. The consequence of this prolonged, and ultimately inconclusive, debate was that economists did not move on to the issue of the management of risk.
[12] Lang (1973) p.19.
[13] Lang (1973) p. 20.
[14] Lang (1973) p. 21.
[15] Lang (1973) p. 20.

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Dr Sutch: (1907-) 1951-1975

Chapter 10 of The Nationbuilders
The earlier part of his life.

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Political Economy & History;

Sutch must have returned to New Zealand in 1951 with renewed self-confidence. His overseas sojourn had proved he was world class, while he had successfully published two books in the previous decade, and had a record as a valued adviser to the New Zealand government. There were also high expectations of him from others. Just before he went overseas Rex Fairburn had written of the then 37 year old, in a series to promote the reputation of a group of New Zealanders, ‘I think it is safe to say that very few, if any New Zealanders, have a more distinguished record, in such a wide range of activities.’[1]

Yet he returned to a much less favourable climate within the Wellington Establishment, with a new National government in power, and growing doubts among some key public servants. For instance Alister McIntosh, permanent secretary to the Prime Minister’s Department, and the recipient of dedication of a book by Sutch in 1936,[2] had shifted from an admiring ‘one of the ablest chaps I know’ in 1944, to growing reservations by 1948.[3] The problems were partly administrative arising from the structure of the New York office, which were identified before Sutch took the position and thus cannot entirely be his fault. But there were allegations of fraternisation with the Russians (more likely Central Europeans) together with that willfulness – doing what he thought was right, rather than what he was told.

It is likely that Sutch also returned with economic forebodings. He had been through the Great Depression, and his subsequent writings suggest he never ruled out another one. Like many of the nationbuilders of his generation, much of his policy was directed to protecting New Zealand from the damage which another world depression would generate – insulating the economy by increasing self sufficiency.

He became Department of Industries and Commerce economist, and rejoined the Wellington cultural and intellectual community, including chairing the Wellington Architectural Centre. A magnetic public lecturer, Sutch contributed actively to adult education via such groups as the WEA and broadcasting. As late as 1960 he was involved in organizing the Wellington Festival of Arts. His modernist house, high on Brooklyn Hill not far from where he had grown up, was designed by Ernst Plishke. (While the house is called ‘the Sutch House’, he would have acknowledged his wife’s financial and design contribution: modernist Bill did not want a fireplace, traditionalist Shirley insisted on one. Today it is a feature of the house’s main living room.) He again took up writing on contemporary issues, including book reviewing and art criticism, in the N.Z. Listener, and Here and Now (under the pseudonym of `William McChesney Martin’ which, with his deadpan humour, he explained was not the Federal Reserve chairman of the day).

In 1957, Assistant Secretary Sutch presented a paper The Next Two Decades of Manufacturing in New Zealand. It is based on statistical projections by a departmental officer (and Central European refugee), Hans Lachman, and was discussed with Jack Baker, who was to become the Government Statistician. While Sutch did not do the sophisticated (for their time) projections, he grasped their significance. The agriculture and service sectors would not grow sufficiently to maintain full employment. To maintain full employment, the manufacturing sector would have to absorb over one in three of the new workers over the next 20 years. While working through the implications of this growth, which implied considerable manufacturing investment (and protection) to promote the new businesses, he noted that Jack White, a respected agricultural economist, thought that farm production could grow only 2 percent p.a.. Sutch concluded that there may be insufficient foreign exchange to increase standards of living (even with the import substitution which came for manufacturing) ‘unless New Zealand’s export income rises more rapidly.’[4]

With hindsight, the conclusion is a weak one, but Sutch was feeling his way. His term as Secretary commenced with a (brief) downturn in export prices in 1958. The Department of Industries and Commerce, charged with administering the supply-side of the economy, applied import and price controls, and promoted industrialization and diversification. To boost export income, and consistent with the logic of his earlier paper Sutch extended the strategy from import substitution to ‘manufacturing in depth’, in which New Zealand manufacturing would aim to add value to raw materials. (An important component of which was the further processing of agricultural exports to a more advanced state.) By 1962 he was actively talking of exports other than those based upon the pastoral industries, and by 1963 he had strengthened the case for the agricultural sector being unable to provide sufficient foreign exchange, by suggesting there would be a tendency for pastoral export prices to fall relative to the cost of imports (that is, the terms of trade would decline overtime).[5]

The commodity terms of trade (the price of pastoral exports relative to import prices) play a crucial role in the development of a small open multisectoral economy such as New Zealand, because they determine the imports that can be purchased for each unit of exports.[6] Their pattern can be split into the long term, or ‘secular’, and the short term or ‘cyclical’.

There is a view there is a declining long term trend. This is partly based on an interpretation of the nineteenth century statistics, and partly a account of the relationship between the manufacture supplying first world (the ‘core’ or ‘imperium’) and the commodity and the commodity supplying third (the ‘periphery’ or ‘colonies’). Sutch was aware of the arguments but in public tended to stress the first world protection of farmers and the threat of substitutes (synthetic fibres for wool, white meats for red meat, margarine for butter). The general proposition is still disputed, but the Sutch was proved absolutely right about the particularities of pastoral products, whose prices have shown a secular decline through most of the post-war era.[7] He certainly would not be surprised today that the pastoral terms of trade are about where they were in the 1930s (and could argue that the economy is not as seriously affected because of some of his policies were pursued).

The conventional wisdom – the Planning Council for example – has been much more optimistic about the terms of trade than was the actual outturn, although it may not want to be reminded of this today. To admit the failure makes Sutch’s policy prescriptions more relevant, rational, and farsighted. For if the terms of trade are going to fall for any export, the policy logic is to diversify from it, generating new exports and import substitutes. And it is prudent to prepare for that contingency before the fall. That is exactly what Sutch advocated.

Thus while Sutch’s administration promoted protection via import controls, and created some new domestically oriented firms of which the Marsden Point oil refinery and the Glenbrook Steel Mill were among the largest it also laid down the foundation for the major export diversification which occurred in the 1970s.[8] And by talking about the possibility he gave New Zealanders the confidence that non-pastoral exporting could succeed. Sutch can be thought of as the grandfather of that diversification.

It is not just fishing which is now an important part of exporting. Today there are also energy and mineral products, forest products, general manufacturing, horticulture, tourist services, plus a host of smaller activities to numerous to list. It is sometimes claimed that farming still produces 55 percent of exports (albeit that proportion is well down on the 90 percent plus when Sutch took over the Secretaryship). But to get the figure above 50 percent, forest products have to be included, and the service sector (including tourism which is the largest exporter) forgotten. In any case farm product exporting has a considerable manufacturing component, a consequence of the manufacturing in depth that Sutch promoted.

Would the industrialisation would have happened anyway? Throughout New Zealand’s history, economic development took place because nationbuilders seized opportunities. Sometimes they took the wrong ones, but more often they chose well. Without Sutch the economy would have moved in roughly the direction it did, but later and with greater pain.

Cyclical changes in the terms of trade cause volatility to the export revenue, and hence to the economy as a whole. Diversification to exports which are less volatile (or cycle differently) reduces that impact. It is also possible, to some extent, to insulate the economy frm these temporary occurrences. As an economic adviser in the 1930s and 1940s, Sutch had been concerned with the establishment of the Reserve Bank, the arrangements for dairy farmers, and economic stabilisation, as well as import controls. These are all measures which could be used to insulate the economy to some degree from variations in the external environment.(Another mechanism is the government borrows overseas to cover any temporary deficit in overseas export revenue.)

A major policy difficulty is that practically it is difficult to separate out the beginning of a new secular trend from a cycle. The Second Labour Government and Sutch seem to have thought the cyclical downswing of 1957 was the begining of a long run decline in the pastoral terms of trade. It proved to be temporary. The conventional wisdom treated the sharp fall in the pastoral terms of trade which occurred in late 1966 as temporary where it is much more the beginning of the long term decline in relative export prices which dominated subsequent economic behaviour.

Looking at Sutch’s writings one is struck by how while Secretary of Industries and Commerce he was thinking through the issues that were confronting the New Zealand industry. His were practical responses to practical issues, developed with his colleagues, and using the most recent data. He supported what today would be called an ‘East Asian’ model of development, which has a highly protected domestic market which is the base for aggressive exporting of increasingly skilled and technological manufactures. That may no longer be an option, because of world trading arrangements (every country cannot be protectionist at home and expect easy entry elsewhere for their exports), but many East Asian economies succeeded with that strategy in the latter part of the twentieth century. The parallel is not exact, since Sutch had major non-Asian concerns in social welfare and insulation from the terms of trade shocks, while the Asian’s inefficient agricultural sector gave a source of new workers unavailable to New Zealand. (Sutch was keen on immigration.) Nevertheless he neither favoured the purely protected, almost autarchic, regime some attribute to him, nor the export oriented industry with unprotected home base that many of his critics seem to favour (and is a reasonable description of the pastoral industries).

In 1963, Sutch described his vision for New Zealand’s economic structure in Towards Economic Maturity, which has to be seen in the context of the economic debate of the time. Contemporaneously with widespread decolonisation, there was the view that the imperial powers had distorted the development of their colonies for their own interests, by confining them to being international providers of raw materials, and preventing manufacturing in depth and import substituting. This resulted in an imbalanced economic structure. From today’s perspective the New Zealand economy of half a century ago, with its emphasis on exporting processed grass to Britain, certainly looks imbalanced.

Sutch quoted Walt Rostow’s then fashionable theory of ‘the stages of economic growth’ as to what is meant by a mature economy:
Formally, we can define maturity as the stage in which an economy demonstrates the capacity to move beyond the original industries which powered its take-off and to absorb and to apply efficiently over a very wide range of its resources – if not the whole range – the most advanced fruits of (then) modern technology. This is a stage in which an economy demonstrates that it has technological and entrepreneurial skills to produce not every thing but anything it chooses to produce. It may lack (like Sweden or Switzerland for example) the raw materials or other supply conditions required to produce a given type of output economically, but its dependence is a matter of economic choice or political priority rather than a technological or institutional necessity.[9]
(Characteristically, Sutch extends the notion of the ‘mature economy’ to the ‘mature society’ mentioning education, the arts, industrial design, housing and town planning and infrastructure.)

Now it is not a great step from Rostow’s argument to conclude that a mature economy will have an economic structure as much like that of other ‘mature economies’ as is practical. (So the argument does not extend to New Zealand making its own jet planes.) This apparently flies in the face of ‘comparative advantage’, which argues that an economy should specialise. But that analysis ignores externalities between production processes and industries which are important, if not central, to Rostow’s thesis.[10] (While the notion of ‘intra-industry trade’ – that is two countries trading the same products rather than inter-industry trade where they specialise and exchange different products – became prominent only subsequently, that it is practically important provides some empirical credibility to the balanced economic structure policy.[11])

Thus Sutch saw the need to reduce the over-specialised structure of the New Zealand economy as a part of a growth strategy as well as a means of reducing the vulnerability of the economy to fluctuations and downturns in the world economy. However, it does not insulate the economy from a major world economic and financial downturn. Nor does increasing autarchy do that, as long as key products (such as oil and tourist services) have to be imported.

We shall see a decade later Henry Lang arguing for more specialist economy than he thought Sutch supported. Even so, Sutch was right to draw attention to the extreme specialisation, and to look for a more diversified export and domestic structure. Moreover the economic assumptions – of interdependencies between production processes in different firms – which underpin the analysis should not be neglected. Sutch’s emphasis on education and training, on industrial design, on technology and research, and on infrastructure are no less relevant today.

But insulationism need not be isolationism. It is clear that Sutch wanted to engage with the world. Under him the Department deliberately allocated import licences for more carpet making machinery than the domestic market could sustain, on the basis that New Zealand should be exporting woolen carpets from the overcapacity.
Sutch’s promotion of industrialisation, with an explicit argument that New Zealand was too dependent upon pastoral products, was an anathema to much of the farm community, while some in the business community did not trust him. At the time there was a three way inter-sectoral fight for political dominance. Sutch was a major spokesperson for manufacturing. The farm sector, which had been happy to use the state when they had political dominance (as in the 1920s), was now increasingly moving towards less state involvement in industry (although even in the 1990s they were not unknown to make special cases for farmers – as in the case of disaster relief and rural mail deliveries. Farmers were probably right in judging that as their political power diminished, the government interventions would less frequently favour them. So the farm sector increasingly aligned itself with the financial sector, which also – as was illustrated in the Coates and Fletcher chapters – have long advocated minimal government involvement when it was in their interests. Sutch saw them as committed to the colonial economic structure dependent on a few imperial countries. Similarly the financial sector was dependent upon a few capital exporters. The result was Sutch became offside with both groups.

So he was involuntarily retired in March 1965, after 40 years of public service employment. At 57 he began a new career as a consultant while he taught, lectured, reviewed and wrote. (His festschrift includes a bibliography of over 800 odd items covering an extraordinary range of areas and ideas.) His writings are in general not analytically detailed. Instructively, in an early 1960s clash, discussed in greater detail in the Philpott chapter, Sutch talked about ‘manufacturing in New Zealand’, but Philpott only of ‘agriculture in the New Zealand economy’.[12] A consequence is that Philpott’s argument is economically tighter, because Sutch used the space to cover much wider issues such as education, design and research.

He worked across an even more comprehensive canvas in his post-Secretaryship days, revising his two earlier widely read books, to became much fuller economic and social histories of New Zealand, [13] and adding numerous other major publications, including four books. Three are discussed below, and there was also Women with a Cause (describing women’s struggle for equality, and finishing with his submissions to the Committee on Equal Pay). In 1973, he became chair of the Queen Elizabeth II Arts Council. At the end he was working on a biography of his hero, Gordon Coates. [14] It is doubtful he would think that subsequent biographers have captured the man, or recognised all his nationbuilding achievements.

Sutch’s thinking was not without its paradoxes. He promoted the wine industry, but was teetotal; he supported the car industry but did not drive; he encouraged the tobacco industry but did not smoke. To the end Sutch was a royalist he especially admired Princess Anne. To the dismay of his republican followers, he sought a knighthood from the Kirk government. (Hardly anybody complained when that other great nationalist historian, Keith Sinclair accepted a knighthood in 1985, although he was almost a generation younger.) As later as 1944 he wrote of himself as an ‘Englishman’, although the subsequent experience at the UN may have led to a greater awareness of the distinction of being a New Zealander. Sutch reflects the ambiguities of attitude other mid-century nationbuilders had towards Britain.

The greatest paradox is that in September 1974 the ‘most loyal New Zealander’ was charged with an offence of obtaining information that would be helpful to an enemy, following some outdoor meetings with a Russian diplomat, cum KGB agent.[15]

There has been much speculation as to what occurred at these meetings, and indeed on Sutch’s security record over the preceding four decades. ‘Speculation’ is the operative word, for the hard facts are few. We have a reasonable idea of what was on his security file, which all public servants had. The memoirs of John Marshall, who as Sutch’s minister would have had access to it, records
A security check not long before his retirement in 1964 did reveal visits to the home of a member of the Communist Party, but no more than that. Some people, from time to time, alleged that Sutch was a communist, but there was no positive proof to support the charge. [16]
Significantly, the trial provided no further evidence (other than the events of 1974), and so broadly confirms this assessment. (It would be very difficult to live in New Zealand and never visit a home of the member of a Communist Party or one of its successors.)

The spy story is not particularly related to the main themes of the book, and it would be fallacy ad hominem to argue that were Sutch a spy, his theories were fundamentally flawed (although, sadly, recourse to the fallacy is stock in trade of much New Zealand debate). Reviewing the available material, my conclusion is that there is no evidence that Sutch was a spy, although he shared freely information in the public domain.[17] The events of 1973 were that it was a bungled intelligence operation by a KGB agent, in which Sutch acted unwisely but not dishonourably, and that the NZSIS bungled too.

For the record, a jury of twelve ordinary New Zealanders acquitted Sutch of the charge of treason in February 1975, despite the legislation (since repealed) being so general that almost any communication with a foreigner was covered by it. Extraordinarily, he was not demoralised by the events, and bore himself afterwards with considerable dignity. Yet the arrest and trial seems likely to have hastened his death at 68, a year later.

The trouble with this spy industry stuff, is that it deflects attention from Sutch’s ideas. For his writings provide one of the most comprehensive accounts of, and visions for, New Zealand. The title essay in Colony or Nation illustrates the difficulty to coming to terms with Sutch.. He identifies the problems of the economic structure in the mid-1960s, by twelve propositions, set out in italics below, each followed by an assessment from the perspective of 35 years later.[18]

1. New Zealand is just as exposed to a world depression as in the past. This remains true although there has yet been no world depression, and New Zealand has been a beneficiary from world prosperity.

2. There has been no change in the price characteristics of New Zealand’s exports. The terms of trade fluctuate less following the diversification of the export sector. That is what Sutch advocated and facilitated.

3. New Zealand’s vulnerability to changes in the terms of trade have not changed. Insofar as the terms of trade fluctuate less (see proposition 2) the statement is no longer strictly true. But New Zealand still remains very vulnerable to fluctuations in the world economy (see proposition 1).

4. New Zealand still has to rely on one main market, the United Kingdom, for the major part of its exports. New Zealand is no longer dependent upon the British market, and now has a pattern of foreign markets characteristic of a ‘mature’ economy. Sutch had a hand in that diversification.

5. New Zealand’s prospects in international trading have not been improved by the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade to which New Zealand is a party. Sutch is observing that GATT barely addressed agricultural protectionism. However the WTO regime includes its regulation.

6. New Zealand has, in fact, to face not less but more intensified agricultural protectionism in the industrial countries of the temperate zone. His prediction of increased protection (and the dumping of surpluses into third markets) proved correct. Even under the WTO regime, there has not been a lot of progress in reducing protection the agricultural products most relevant to New Zealand.

7. No serious attack has been made yet on the need to diversify land use. That happened during the post-1966 diversification, but the pastoral sector still produces about half of gross farm output.

8. In general, New Zealand’s pattern of (and attitudes towards) international trade still savour very much of colonial attachments. Sutch was concerned about New Zealand’s rejection of bilateralism in trading relationships, and its emphasis on multilateralism. In fact the world has become more multilateral, while today New Zealand has bilateral deals with Australia, most Pacific Island States, Chile and Singapore, and is exploring others.

9. Many economic institutions are still characterised by lack of diversity and flexibility. It is unclear what Sutch meant. It might be argued that Sutch was right, but the institutional issue has since been largely addressed. However Sutch seems to have had in mind the need for more public institutions.

10. In industrial development the continuing shortage of foreign exchange has brought a minimum of expansion of manufacturing: but no guiding lines have been laid down about the direction and extent of the various industrial sectors. Much of the essay is concerned about the failure to expand manufacturing fast enough. (For Sutch that meant active interventions.) In fact the post-1966 diversification expanded the composition and scale of manufacturing. However it has suffered an enormous setback since the mid-1980s.

11. Far too much development in manufactures has been because of investment and activity in foreign countries. This discussion is detailed his later book Takeover New Zealand. Sutch most certainly would see greater foreign penetration today.

12. New Zealand’s unique contribution to human welfare is being threatened at an accelerating rate. This might have seemed excessively alarmist in the 1970s, although the threat was always there. The changes to the welfare state in the late 1980s and 1990s justified the alarm.

The essay is all the more prescient because it was written in September 1965, before the collapse in the terms of trade at the end of 1966. Sutch’s strategy of export diversification was the economy’s response, part driven by market opportunities, part by the measures which Sutch’s administration had put in place, and part by the confidence he had given New Zealanders by talking about it. The conventional wisdom is reluctant to acknowledge his contribution to the shift to export oriented industrialisation. Failure is an orphan, while success has many parents. Sometimes an identifiable grandparent is overlooked.

With the benefit of hindsight, one might score half the propositions (1,6,10,11,12, possibly 5) as still broadly true today, and the remainder (probably excluding 9) less true because of Sutch’s contribution. This is an impressive record, but this response misses much of the point. The book concludes
The crisis for New Zealand in the mid-1960s is not that the basis of our wealth has suddenly gone. It has not gone and the trends which have produced the crisis are not sudden. The crisis consists in this: the time in which we can take remedial action is getting shorter and shorter; and the longer we delay these measures , the more the crisis deepens. Rapid and radical action is needed to readjust our economic structure and institutions to meet our new development needs: the building of industry to supply raw materials, components, and capital goods, and the basing of our society on a broad range of skills. In all too many respects we have been outpaced by a large part of the developed world and we may, for all we know, be in the process of being outstripped by many developing countries. These latter at least recognised their problem – the need to develop rapidly – and they the will to try to solve it.
The crisis is one of time and of attitude. It lies in a failure to understand fully the fact and nature of a crisis that has already arrived; and a failure to meet it quickly enough. It is also a crisis of dependence – a ‘decisive moment for our future – colony, or nation?[19]

Stripping away the rhetoric of ‘crisis’ (much used in New Zealand and elsewhere), Sutch is arguing that too many New Zealanders still had colonial attitudes, and that compromised the viability of the nation. This may have seemed less so fifteen years after the book, but the post-1984 regime as illustrated how subservient to international fashion and lacking in self-confidence so many influential New Zealander were.

Takeover New Zealand took up the theme of foreign control and greater self sufficiency. Unfortunately the book exhibits some of the weaknesses of today’s antagonists to foreign investment. It begins with a short (and not uninteresting if one is unfamiliar with the period) economic policy history from 1920 to 1950) and then has six chapters which describe the extent to which New Zealand resources, businesses and finances are owned or controlled by foreigners. (The extent would be even greater today.) So far so good. But it provides very little account of why this has happened, other than specific instances of takeovers or investments, alerting readers but not providing much analysis. The fundamental reason is that New Zealanders do not save enough, so the economy has to borrow from overseas to provide itself with the capital investment it needs. If the savings deficit is great, then much of that overseas supply will have to be terms of equity investment. And so the New Zealand economy is steadily taken over by foreigners. Unless the savings deficit is addressed, any undesirable foreign penetration cannot be either.

Indeed, harking back to John Ballance’s vision of ‘self-reliance’, probably the best single insulation New Zealand can do from the vicissitudes of the world economy would be more self-sufficient in capital. Even so if there is a major world contraction, New Zealand exporters must suffer, as must those who supply the exporters, and thence the economy as a whole. There is no way a small economy dependent upon overseas resources can avoid all the costs of an international downturn. But it can insulate itself to some degree.

The Responsible Society, Sutch’s evidence to the 1972 Royal Commission on Social Security, was described by its chairman, Thaddeus McCarthy, as ‘your plan here not as one standing by itself but as a part of what might also resemble a minor social revolution which you desire to see happening in the country in ways of our social living, our social approaches, which may be highly desirable.’[20] Again it contains a short history, but its main concerns were to protect and extend the social welfare system of social security (including a particularly powerful chapter on ‘Our Children, Our Future’), and health. His vision was underpinned by human capital theory, which was becoming popular. Indeed when he introduced it to the 1960 Commission on Education the approach was so new in the former case, that the Commissioners consulted another economist to test it.[21] His vision may be summarised by the motif on the dedication page of Poverty and Progress, although it is became banal after prime minister David Lange began chanting it in the mid 1980s while his government pursued exactly the opposite course.
Ki mai ki au, he aha te mea nui o te au?
Makue ki atu, he tangata, he tangata!
(Tell me, what is the most important thing in the world?
Well, I’ll tell you: It’s people. It’s people!)

Thus Sutch has a unique place in New Zealand’s history, and its history of ideas. For while from one perspective he is but one of many prominent nationbuilders of his times, his compass was wider than most, and because of his writing, and the values he expressed, which impacted on subsequent generations – as Bruce Jesson reports in the Envoy. Some of his theories – especially the political economic framework of New Zealand – are now a part of the conventional wisdom, likely to be taught, debated, and elaborated for some time to come, while policies he first advocated are now accepted as integral to New Zealand’s development.

He argued New Zealand had been a dependent colony, a monoculture which grew and processed grass mainly sold to Britain as wool, meat, and dairy products. Sutch saw the need to foster industry and employment within New Zealand, and to earn foreign exchange by exporting a diversity of goods and services to many countries, as well as conserving foreign exchange through import substitution. Production had to be of high quality, well designed, and make full use of human resources. Thus he was a tireless advocate a polemicist for the development of a national culture. People were at the core of his development vision: children were a key to the future, and women were entitled to equality both as a right and because they contributed to the broad social and economic development. Full employment, education and the welfare state promoted human resources.

He saw a key role for the state, but it was a Fabian one, for he advocated decentralisation and was concerned with human rights. It certainly was an interventionist state by the standards of the 1990s, promoting economic activity, and providing protection and support via public education, health and welfare services. But his support was no different in this respect from that of most of his contemporaries. He was just more prominent publicly arguing the case, and perhaps more farseeing. If his views were often original and independent of the times, many are now accepted as part of the main stream of New Zealand discourse. Sutch has attained the status of Keynes’ defunct economist, whose thinking practical men rely upon without realizing it.

Were he alive today, Sutch would be delighted with the external diversification, but appalled by the lack of industrial assistance since 1984, and the neglect of the productive sector in favour of the financial one, with the resulting reduction in the import substituting sector and a poorly performing export sector. He would be distraught by the degree of foreign ownership of New Zealand industry, and unbelieving at the extent of the dismantling of the welfare state. Yet Sutch would be delighted at the social progress of women and many ethnic minorities, and amused that the human capital approach he initially almost alone advocated in the early 1960s, is now accepted by even the most practical of politicians.

From one perspective Sutch was a man of his times. His economics reflect the paradigm of his day and it does not always make sense to judge him according to later developments in economic theory or the new circumstances which he helped to create – or at least no more harshly than today’s commentators expect to be judged in the future. Even so, he gets misrepresented, by both left and right, who focus on his 1957 vision of import controls as the central issue for industrial policy, and do not allow that his approach pragmatically developed thereafter. If he were alive today, he would develop his ideas further, absorbing new theories and new circumstances. We misrepresent his intentions if we focus on his specific policies which were of their times, to the detriment of his principles which remain relevant into the future..

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Biographical Sources
See bibliographical sources of Chapter 7.

Endnotes
1. A.R.D. Fairburn (1945) ‘W.B. Sutch’, Action – The Thinker’s Digest, February 1945, p.32-34.
2. Sutch (1936)
3. McIntosh to Berendensen in I. McGibbon (1993) p. 68, 158.
4. Sutch (1957) p.20.
5. Sutch (1962); Sutch (1963)
6. B.H. Easton (1997) In Stormy Seas, Dunedin,
7. Easton (1997) p.75-81.
8. R. Cullen & P. Wooding (1981) ‘Export Incentives in New Zealand: 1962-1978,’ NZEP, 15, p.144-162; P. Wooding (1987) ‘Liberalising the International Trade Regime’, in A. Bollard & B. Buckle (ed) Economic Liberalisation in New Zealand, Wellington, p. 86-101.
9. W. Rostow (1960) The Stages of Economic Growth, London, p.10, quoted in Sutch (1963) p.14.
10. For more on the protection debate see Easton (1997) Ch.11.
11. See Easton (1997) Ch.9, on the intra industry trade evidence for New Zealand and the implication that New Zealand is not a ‘mature’ economy.
12. Compare Sutch (1964) with B.P. Philpott (1964) ‘The Future of Agriculture in the New Zealand Economy’, in M. Lloyd-Pritchard (ed) (1964), p.24-43.
13. Sutch (1966b, 1969).
14. Sutch (1973a).
15. N. Hilliard (1975) ‘Thinkers of Evil and the Most Loyal New Zealander’, New Zealand Monthly Review, March 1975, p.1-4.
16. J. Marshall (1989) Memoirs, Auckland, Vol II, p.145-146.
17. I prepared an appendix for this purpose. It has not been published, because it distracts from the central themes of the book.
18. Sutch (1966a) p. 163-172.
19. Sutch (1966a) p.183.
20. Reported on the back cover of Sutch (1971).
21. Told to me by a member of the secretariate of the Commission.

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Bill Sutch: 1907-1950 (-1975)

Chapter 7 of The Nationbuilders 
Chapter 10 – later life from 1951Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Political Economy & History;
 

Bill Sutch was not only one of a handful of public servants who shaped economic and social policy between the 1930s and the 1960s. His thinking has continued to influence economic and social development after his death, for he was the mid-century nationbuilder who expounded the most distinctive and influential vision of New Zealand‘s economic and social development. Yet arguably, his supreme achievement may occurred offshore in the early years of the United Nations, when he was in his early forties. And, of course, he was tried and acquitted under the Official Secrets Act, just before he died, which adds an unnecessary mystery to his life.
 
Anomalously for someone who has been described as ‘the greatest New Zealander’ of his generation, Sutch was conceived in South Africa, and born in England, when his mother returned home because she was concerned about the local maternity conditions. Rejoining her husband, they decided that South Africa did not offer them a future. Sutch arrived in New Zealand at the age of 8 months. Ted, a builder and joiner, and Ellen, a dressmaker, were Lancastrian working class Methodists. Each was a strong determined character, and widely read in the social fields (despite only elementary schooling). His financially canny mother, whom he adored, gave him a life-long commitment to women’s causes.
 Sutch was the middle of five children. The household allocated various tasks to each child, independent of gender. His Brooklyn primary school headmaster persuaded his family that he should go to secondary school, rather than an apprenticeship, changing not only Sutch’s expected life path, but no doubt the course of the trade union movement.
 

Following Wellington College, Sutch went part-time to Wellington Teachers College and Victoria University College studying history and economics. To fund himself, he worked as a telegraph delivery messenger, seller of newspapers, a farm labourer, a builder’s labourer and a grocery assistant, teaching at Nelson College from 1928 to 1930. He was active in his church, in 1971 recalling
[I came from a] North of England background which was one of carefulness of saving, of good behaviour, of hard work and respect for the products of man’s skills that’s hard to disentangle because the Methodists have the same views. Now at the Methodist level you have two parts to this. One was the behaviour …. Now I don’t smoke or drink or swear … but this is not just a behaviouristic sort of thing. This is respect for the human body and this is what we were taught. The human body was a temple for us to respect. So there’s more in it than these external things. Now the second aspect of the Methodist upbringing was here were we in Bible class at the age of 17, 18, 19. You were going to university and bible class was our free discussion club. The Methodists encouraged us to be sceptical, to question, for just as the Baptists began by departing from the Anglicans in years gone by here they were willing to take their logic further and examine things like the Virgin birth things like walking on the water & all those … but more than that. What was the — with man in society what was his obligation to his neighbours? We thrashed this one through — neighbour — myself. Now all this came out of the way what you might today call my teens.[1]
Bert O’Keefe, a Catholic, recalls that ‘[a]n early common interest was attending services at most of the numerous churches in Wellington … We took in the lot.’[2]  It was a logical step from his sunday school days.
 The sunday school was where adolescents of Sutch’s generation got their ‘education’ – where they had to learn, challenge, and think. Sutch was unusual for his generation going to teachers college and university, but in 1960 he offered an implicit critique when he said
One of the curious things about New Zealand is the small impact the university makes upon the community. This is perhaps because the university is regarded as a place where one gets a journeyman’s certificate in medicine, law, science, commerce and the rest, rather than a place to broaden and deepen the mind and carry out the kind of research which is a contribution to human knowledge.[3]
Some 35 years earlier, when Sutch was a student, the (Reichel-Tate) Royal Commission on Universities had commented that New Zealand ‘offer[ed] unrivalled facilities for gaining university degrees but … is less successful in providing university education.’[4]
 

In 1931, at the age of 24 he went to the Department of Economics at Columbia, at the time the most important in the United States, where it taught the dominant economic paradigm of the times ‘institutionalism’.[5] The neoclassical synthesis (often abbreviated to ‘neoclassical’)   a combination of the macroeconomics that Keynes pioneered and the modern theory of markets (including a welfare economics which emphasises their beneficial outcomes), strongly laced with mathematical techniques   only becomes important after the Second World War. Institutionalists trace their origin to Thorstein Veblin. Among the best-known are Gunnar Myrdal and John Kenneth Galbraith. Maurice Clarke, who lead interwar Columbian economics.
 Yuval Yonay summarises ‘the trademarks of institutionalism [are] empirical research, suspicion towards deductive theory, emphasis on the changing nature of economic institutions, habits, and norms, special attention to the divergence of market values (prices) from social values, and the belief in the reality of informed concerted action to improve human welfare.’[6] The (largely valid) implication of this definition is that the neoclassical economics which followed it is less empirical and more deductive. It tends to assume that institutions, habits and norms are irrelevant (but often the implicit assumption is the norms of an idealised white middle class US males). It thinks market prices normally match social prices, and while collective actions rarely improve human welfare, but individual ones usually do.
 

Readers may be a little dismayed to see such disagreement between the two economic paradigms, and may not even be reassured by Paul Samuelson, the key neoclassical innovator and doyen of MIT economics which replaced Columbia’s supremacy after the war, who said in 1999 ‘I do not come today to bury institutionalism nor to dispraise it. I believe it lives on as a lively element inside today’s mainstream economics, … American institutional economics [is] a force that will endure and flower in the next century to come.’[7] The eclectic economist has a toolkit, in which both institutionalist and neoclassical paradigms (and others) reside. Faced with a particular problem, the economist uses the tool (or tools) which best tackles the job.
 Sutch did not have much neoclassical economics in his tool kit (other than that which derives directly from Alfred Marshall, who influenced both paradigms), although he kept in touch with many developments in economic and social thinking throughout his life. (For instance, his evidence to the Royal Commission on Social Security shows he was conversant with recent developments in social economics.) His economics is often evaluated according to the neoclassical paradigm. To do so is anachronistic (as it would be to do so for Bernard Ashwin, or to assume that Karl Marx knew the neo-classical economist’s theory of markets which developed after his death). In particular, Sutch is much more sceptical of the efficacy of the market that later generations, and favoured planning and economic intervention – as did all of the mid-century nationbuilders. Sutch is criticised because he is the most vocal – the most remembered, but he was part of their mainstream. Moreover streams flow, and sometimes Sutch is condemned for views which he moved past.
 

American institutionalism was greatly influenced by nineteenth century German philosophy, as was Marxism. Both thought planning was an important part of economic policy, but for different reasons. Once I assumed Sutch was strongly influenced by Marx, and spent much time looking for evidence. But the only support was the cover of the second edition of The Quest for Security, with a picture of the Featherston Street riot of 1913, which could be interpreted as a class struggle. But as Nineteenth Century English socialist thought shows, those who thought about class struggle need not be Marxists. (Some attempts to nail Sutch had their humorous side. I once went through his home bookcase, and found texts by Marx in it. Some had the name of his father-in-law, David Smith, inscribed on the flyleaf. Sir David, a judge of the Supreme Court, was unlikely to be a Marxist. Rather, he was an intelligent concerned intellectual, interested in important ideas of the day.)
 Lawrence Jones has argued that the preface of the first edition of The Quest for Security has ‘a deconstruction of the myth of progress, more from a Marxist than from a cultural nationalist perspective’, citing such sentiments as ‘[t]he very subject matter of the book and the demands for space bring sharply to the foreground the topics of poverty and unemployment and the struggles of those to whom economic depression and personal misfortune brought destitution.’[8] It would be a sad day, if Marxists were the only people to view society from the perspective of the underprivileged. Sutch also praises the American emphasis on ‘independent farm owners who with their family provided their own livelihood.’ Not a lot of Marxist sentiment there.
 

The preface contains the following paragraph:
History is not a procession of dates nor a description of acts of Parliament, nor does it consist in surveying press editorials or political speeches, although these may be guides to emotional attitudes. If history is to mean anything, it must deal with the causes as well as effects, it must deal with the conflicts and alliances of social and economic forces, the process of change, the underlying reasons for surface happenings, the social and legal institutions which provide a framework for these happenings. In a short book it is not possible to study the dynamics of history in any detail, but it is essential to indicate on broad lines the main forces operating to produce developments and difficulties   to answer the question Why? [9]
 Here, I thought, was the smoking gun for the passage has Marxist overtones. However, the strongest alternative hypothesis is that it might better reflect the approach of Arnold Toynbee, who also offered a forces-of-history approach from a Christian Socialist perspective. I approached Peter Munz, acknowledged as New Zealand‘s foremost historical methodologist, read him the passage without identifying its author. His immediate reaction was that it was written by a follower of Toynbee rather than of Marx.[10]
 

Sutch’s writings suggest he was strongly influenced by Fabian socialism. His attitude to local government resonates with Fabianism.[11] In the 1971 radio interview he said
[O]nce upon a time somebody asked Bernard Shaw what to do to be a good socialist. Bernard Shaw said ‘what are you’ and he said ‘I’m a carpenter’. ‘Well, be a good carpenter.’ Now I’ve never forgotten that, and whatever a socialist may be I believe one can make a very big contribution in doing what you can do well. What I can do well other people can say   I sometimes think it’s only gardening   but for whatever skills I have I make my contribution, I think, through them.
If one wanted a simple summary of Sutch’s philosophical foundations may be that like British Socialism, Bill Sutch was more influenced by Methodism than by Marx.[12]
 
There is no evidence that Sutch was ever a member of the Communist Party. His wife, Shirley Smith, whose active membership lapsed in 1945, tells of attempting to get him to join it. Sutch explained that ‘he had never belonged to any party, that he would never be told by anyone what to think he would never follow any party line.’[13] His repeated the sentiment when describing the British Fabians who ‘stressed the value of independent research as a guide to any political party wishing for social and economic reform.’[14]
 Sutch was fascinated by, and a supporter of, the Soviet Union. (So were Fabians Bernard Shaw and Sydney and Beatrice Webb.) He remained so, long after many leftists had become disillusioned. But seeing the Soviet Union as a bulwark against the worst of capitalism or American imperialism does not make one a Marxist or a member of the Communist Party. It is also true that Sutch had American leftists friends among his friends, such as Leo Huberman (whom he met at Columbia) and Paul Sweezy, editors of The Monthly Review for which Sutch wrote in the 1950s. (He seems to have been trailed by the FBI when he visited Huberman in New York. In cold war parlance Huberman was a ‘communist’ and therefore Sutch was too. That does not get us far.)
 

Sutch saved enough of his Columbian grant to travel after completing his PhD. Describing it for a 1944 book on New Zealand-Russian relations, he wrote:
From [Columbia University ] Dr Sutch led a life of what is called in the United States a ‘hobo’. That is, he wandered around with the unemployed, going from town to town and sleeping where he could, perhaps in a prison cell, perhaps in an abandoned house, perhaps in a haystack. From the United States he went to Europe and during the latter part of 1932, travelled, still as a hobo, through France, Switzerland, Italy, Austria and Germany and England, still sleeping at unemployment camps, doss houses or in the open air. His idea was to see how the poorer people of other countries had to live and he wanted to exist with them in order to get a proper background.
            From England Dr Sutch took a ship to Norway and travelled up the coast of Norway round the North Cape and landed [in] Lapland. …. Dr Sutch continued by himself with a pack on his back and some bread and cheese, through Finland to Helsingfors. Then he crossed to Leningrad, to Moscow and there through Samara (Kuibyshev) to Tashkent, then on to Samarkand, to Bokhara, to Termes, which was a garrison outpost on the Afghan border.’ [The trip only took two weeks, and was largely by train. It took place in a time when the Soviet Union was relatively favourable to tourism. A number of other New Zealanders travelled there at about the same time.[15]]
   From the borders of Afghanistan, Dr Sutch went in a Russian aeroplane over the Hindukush mountains to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan and even in the northwest of India. In India he travelled through the main towns to Calcutta and across from Calcutta to Bombay, living with the poorer Indian worker. In India Dr Sutch contracted malaria and decided to go to a better climate so he took [a] ship from Bombay to Australia, visiting the main Australian towns and finally returning to New Zealand, where the world depression was still in existence.’[16]
 His entire family was unemployed or doing a little relief work. For a short time so was he. He often recalled the hardship of those years.[17] Forty years on he ‘wept openly when he recalled an old school friend who invited him to his home to welcome back to New Zealand. For the meal they had only bread and some butter which his friend proudly explained they had “saved up” for the occasion.’[18] It was not only in New Zealand.
I … saw millions of unemployed and the desperation. I’ve seen people dead from starvation. I saw them lying on the tops of the underground vents in Paris to try to get warm. I’ve seen them lying under newspapers in New York to try to get warm. Now this kind of thing, if it is the product of the economic system, obviously leads to the conclusion that [the] economic system must be changed.[19]
 

He went teaching in Wanganui and Palmerston North in early 1933. Bryan Philpott, a pupil at the Boys’ High, and recalls a ‘smart film-star looking guy with a moustache and staccato-firing questions the moment he walked into the room. The first impact was you were in the hands of a new prophet …’ [20] In August, Sutch joined the ‘brains trust’ of the then Minister of Finance, Gordon Coates. Again the events of the time are riddled in myth. There was an Easter tramping trip in the Tararuas in which he and three others took 17 days to find their way through because of injury and torrential rains so they could not cross rivers.[21] One of his companions, O’Keefe was to write many years later ‘I learned a lot about Sutch during those 17 days. In mental equipment, fortitude and kindness I found him the best of the four on the trip. …. I don’t think I’d have survived if it had not been for Bill’s constant help and encouragement.’ There was a major search effort, and the party was widely criticised when Sutch said they were not ‘lost’, meaning they knew where they were. There is an irony here, for as O’Keefe recalls George von Zedlitz saying ‘we frustrated many people’s maudlin expectations by walking out on our own efforts … if say, three had emerged carrying one dead body, the survivors would have been intrepid national heroes.’[22] Shortly after, about the time Sutch was to join Coates’ staff, Dick Campbell and Coates discussed the new recruit:
Campbell said, ‘He’s a very unpopular man in the country,’ and Coates said, ‘Yes, I know that. I read the papers and as I am probably the most unpopular man in the country maybe I will get on very well with him.’[23]
 Sutch’s role as an adviser to Coates ‘brain’s trust’ is often misunderstood insofar as he (and others   which formally included Campbell and (later) Horace Belshaw and, informally, Ashwin and Paul Verschaffelt, Chairman of the Public Service Commission) is said to have radicalised the Minister of Finance. Certainly the young men were radical in their own way. Sutch relates how
In February 1934 a Wellington Fabian Society was formed with the sole purpose of inviting George Bernard Shaw to give a public address. The moving spirit was R.M. Campbell (the writer assisted). Both of us were on the staff of J.G. Coates, who we told of our actions; and Peter Fraser readily cooperated.[24]
 

The detail is given here because John Marshall implies there was something wrong.[25] He overlooks that if Sutch was a Fabian, he was unlikely to be a Marxist. While it is not untypical of right-wing writing to lump all left-wing activity in the same anti-capitalist camp, without attempting to understand the distinctions, there is an enormous gulf between the revolutionary approach of Marxists, and evolutionary approach of the Fabians. Shaws’s visit was so influential that Ashwin mentions in a lecture his proposal to provide milk free and charge to the rates. [26]
 In fact Coates had already adopted the strategy of the nation building in the 1920s, and many of the major economic decisions contributing to the depression recovery had been taken before Sutch joined Coates. Sutch and the other members of the ‘Brains Trust’ was probably more influenced by Coates,. From him Sutch may have learned about nationbuilding. No wonder Sutch worshipped his mentor.
 

Sutch’s story told in the Coates chapter, of the latter’s belief of doing what you thought was right, irrespective of what others thought, is another lesson which Sutch learned from him. His wilfulness was the problem the public service had with him, rather than any security risk.
 Sometimes his doing what he thought right lead to the comical.
There was a minor contretemps at the Polish-Russian border [in 1937]. Dr Sutch, whose tactlessness sometimes amounted to genius, had a Nazi flag and some Nazi literature in his bag. Their bags were searched, despite Nash’s protest that is was an infringement of his diplomatic status. However, Nash induced the Russians not to search the ‘diplomatic bags’, and he succeeded in placing Sutch’s bag with these.[27]
Sutch must have been so confident he was not a fascist, that it never occurred to him that his possession of Nazi souvenirs could be taken as anything but a joke. If there is an enigma about Sutch, it is how one so intelligent could also be so innocent.
 

Sutch had become private secretary to Minister of Finance, Walter Nash, following the election of the Labour Government in 1935. Thus he was closely involved in the main economic debates of the 1930s to early 1940s, including those on the Reserve Bank, guaranteed prices, and exchange and import controls. He became an active member of the Wellington cultural and intellectual community, including in the Institute of International Affairs, the Left Book Club, Progressive Publishing, and the Wellington Cooperative Book Society (Modern Books). He began regularly writing (frequently under pseudonyms) on a wide variety of contemporary economic and political issues, in such journals as Tomorrow as well as in learned journals and official publications. As de facto Wellington editor of Tomorrow he was involved with the publication of John A. Lee’s ‘Psycho-Pathology in Politics.’ No doubt his doing what he thought was right, did not endear him to Peter Fraser.
In 1941 he published Poverty and Progress in New Zealand, a history with the theme of social difficulties driving national development. In 1942 The Quest for Security in New Zealand, was published by Penguin, selling over 100,000 copies. Both were originally versions of a text commissioned for the Centennial Series as a history of the social services, but each had was rejected. It is said Sutch was advised the two manuscripts should be locked away.
 Such public activities by an official closely involved in political advice led to conflict with his political masters, especially Fraser, and in 1941 he moved to the Ministry of Supply (later incorporated into the Department of Industries and Commerce). In 1943 he was a gunner, and later a gunnery instructor, in the Army. In 1944 he returned to the Ministry as an advisory economist, dealing with policy issues such as Lend-Lease, foreign trade, and price equalisation. He was the trade union nominee on the first Railways Tribunal, which fixed wages.
 

In 1945 Sutch moved to Sydney as deputy director of the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration (UNRRA), responsible for the South West Pacific, and then went on the following year to direct its operational analysis division for Europe, based in London (where he edited a number of surveys on European economic recovery). From 1947 to 1951 he was secretary-general of the New Zealand delegation to the United Nations in New York, where he chaired the UN Social Commission in 1948 and 1949, and the UN Children’s Fund in 1949 and 1950. There he contributed to the creation of an independent international public service, and actively discouraged race discrimination.
 About this time, we do not know when, he developed a framework for organising thinking about New Zealand. Alpers recalls Sutch giving a speech to the Economic and Social Council in 1949 which you said ‘that the only true natural resource with which New Zealand was blessed was grass.’ [28] The notion that New Zealand was essentially a ‘monoculture’ of grass for most of the late nineteenth century (preceded by the quarry), and the first three quarters of the twentieth, is one of the best ways to organise the political economy and economic history of the period. It almost certainly draws upon the ‘staples theory’ of Canadian political economist, Harold Innes, but when Sutch first met that, and saw its relevance to New Zealand, is not known. It was probably not until the late 1940s.
 

Sutch never wrote these ideas into a comprehensive account.[29] The oral tradition recalls a lecture Sutch gave to a WEA Summer School in Nelson in 1962 in which he used fishing as a metaphor to describe New Zealand economic development. People who attended talked to me about the lecture over 15 years later. His notes or draft speech, if any, have not been found. I tried to reconstruct the presentation for a Listener column.
Sutch would have started with the classical (pre-contact) Maori. Fish was a major part of their diet; they conserved the fish stock; many were skilled fisherman; according to Captain Cook, they were in some ways superior to the fishermen of Europe.
That changed with the arrival of the European. As the Maori lost their population and their rangatiratanga their fishing became marginalised too. Fish stocks began to be run down. In Sutch’s terminology they were quarried rather than developed on a sustainable basis.
Initially fishing was important to the early settlers too. Fish supplemented their diet, while whaling was the foundation of much of the commercial enterprise of Wellington in the 1840s. Other east coast settlements may have been as equally dependent. Once the whales were largely exhausted, the exports of the fishing industry became negligible.
Sutch would have drawn attention to the oddity that New Zealand was surrounded by sea rich in fish. (Later we were to acquire one of the largest Exclusive Economic Zones in the world.) Yet our fishing industry was primitive in 1962. Certainly we still ate fish   mainly battered with chips. But at the time, excluding crayfish which were being depleted like the whales, New Zealand imported more fish than it exported. All fish exports came to less than 1 percent of total exports.
Fishing was then a ‘stunted industry’, a term we know that Sutch would have used, because it is in a report of his Department of Industries and Commerce later that year.[30] The official report tiptoes around Sutch’s explanation. Fishing has ‘good possibilities and it is regrettable there has been insufficient impetus and encouragement.’
He would have been franker to the WEA. Sutch both commended the enormous government contribution to the development of the pastoral industry, but also thought that the government interventions had favoured the farmers at the expense of everyone else. While post-1984 farmers may flagellate themselves over that assistance   cheap loans, subsidies, infrastructure, producer boards, preferential treatment, and so on   Sutch’s message was not a popular with the farmer government of the day, even though farming had built itself on this government assistance. Farming was the great success. But because had emphasised assistance to farming, other industries had suffered. Sutch described the New Zealand‘s economy as ‘over-specialised and over-sensitive’ (a euphemism of the day for ‘over-vulnerable’), calling the New Zealand economy ‘immature’.
The last part of the lecture would have been to advocate the development of fishing as ‘a major export industry’. He would have emphasised that it was not just a matter of exporting the fish, but that we should process them to as sophisticated a level as possible, including by feeding quality fish based meals to tourists. He would probably have mentioned the possibilities of exporting fishing equipment, as a result of the need to provide sophisticated technology to the fishing fleet.
 The audience would have been enthused, not just by much more historical detail than can be given here, but by the way the example was used to illustrate the vision of New Zealand as a mature diversified economy.[31]
 Forty years later, he would be pleased with many of the developments in the fishing industry. But he would argue for more processing in New Zealand and the development of the associated servicing and equipment industries. He assuredly would have been disappointed that so much of the industry was foreign controlled.
 

The now 42 year old Sutch played the crucial role a UN decision to continue with UNICEF. The incident, like the Fraser one chairing the Trusteeship Council of the UN, is not well known in New Zealand. Benedict Alpers describes to Sutch:
By mid-1949 when you were Chairman of the Social Commission which had the future of UNICEF under consideration … Parallel with the efforts of private citizens to promote a political climate to force Truman to reverse his policy with the discontinuance of aid, was the work done by you with delegations … who were committed to making UNICEF a permanent, rather than an ‘emergency’ operation. …
Well, I won’t bore you with repeating back to you what you told me of the manoeuvres you went through to keep the US guessing as to how their ‘loyal’ supporters in Latin America and the Middle East would vote, or the special campaign you waged to get all the woman delegates on your side. The day the decisive vote was taken, you stood at the door of the … meeting room and looked into the face of each incoming delegate: to remind him to keep you on his conscience, as well as to see if you could judge how he was going to vote. …
The issue was now … before the Third Committee of the General Assembly where they were debated for three days … And then came, as the Henty books use to say, ‘Your finest hour’ or, more accurately two of them. … The hall was packed, the tensions were high, you spoke without notes, and while it would be stretching the point to say, again in the Henty tradition, that strong men wept and women fainted, it is true many were profoundly moved by your presentation. … In any case that speech of yours turned the scales. …. [D]id you ever in your wildest hopes expect to win by 40 to 0?…
‘The award to UNICEF of the Nobel [Peace] Prize in 1965 must record somewhere (however small the print) the names of W.B. Sutch and New Zealand as joint recipients.’[32]
For a man who has generated so much popular myth, it is ironic that his greatest achievement is not a part of it.
 Although Sutch could have stayed on as a career civil servant at the UN, he returned to New Zealand in 1951, as someone who had proved himself in the international arena, determined to do the same for New Zealand. Many of Sutch’s political masters were less sure.

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 Biographical Sources
Alpers, B. (1975) ‘David from Down Under’ in J.L. Robson & J. Shallcrass, op. cit. p. 215-234.
Anderton, J. (1999) ‘William Ball Sutch’ in Unsung Heroes, Auckland, p.51-68.
Barr J.C. (1973) ‘Interview of W.B. Sutch’, Alexander Turnbull Oral History Archive
Bollinger, T. (2000) Prophecy and Process on the New Zealand Public Service: The Administrative Career of Dr W.B. Sutch, 1958-1965, Unpublished manuscript.
Easton, B. H. (1998) Trying to Understand Dr Sutch, unpublished paper, Stout Research Centre, Wellington.
Easton, B.H. (2000) ‘Sutch, William, Ball’, Dictionary of New Zealand Biography, Vol.5, p.504-506.
Endres, A. (1986) ‘The Political Economy of W.B. Sutch: Towards a Critical Appreciation’ NZEP, Vol. 20, p.17-40.
McLintock, B. (1998) The Economic Ideas of Dr Sutch, unpublished paper, Carthage College, Kenosha.
O’Keefe, A.H. (1982) Sutch as I knew him 1932-1975, MS 1172, Auckland Institute and Museum Library, 28 September 1982.
Robson, J.L. & J. Shallcrass (ed.) (1975) Spirit of an Age: Essays in Honour of W.B. Sutch, Wellington.
Shallcrass, J. (1975) ‘W.B. Sutch’ in J.L. Robson & J. Shallcrass, op. cit. p.3-11.
Sutch, W.B. (1936) Recent Economic Changes in New Zealand, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1941) Poverty and Progress in New Zealand, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1942) The Quest for Security in New Zealand, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1957) Manufacturing in New Zealand: The Next Two Decades, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1959) The Economics of Television, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1960) ‘Programme for Growth’ in Background Papers: Industrial Development Conference, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1962) Selling New Zealand’s Exports, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1963) Towards Economic Maturity, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1964a) ‘The Future of Manufacturing in New Zealand’ in M. Lloyd-Pritchard (ed) The Future of New Zealand, Auckland, p.1-24.
Sutch W.B. (1964b) Local Government in New Zealand: A History of Defeat, Wellington (Reprint of a paper written in 1956).
Sutch, W.B. (1966a) Colony or Nation, Sydney.
Sutch, W.B. (1966b) The Quest for Security in New Zealand: 1840 to 1966, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1969) Poverty and Progress in New Zealand: A Re-assessment, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1971) The Responsible Society in New Zealand, Christchurch.
Sutch, W.B. (1972) Takeover New Zealand, Wellington.
Sutch, W.B. (1973a) ‘Gordon Coates: the Lonely New Zealander,’ New Zealand’s Heritage, v.6, pp.2195-2204.
Sutch, W.B. (1973b) Women with a Cause, Wellington.
 

The Sutch papers are in the Alexander Turnbull Library.
A full bibliography of Sutch’s writings will be found in J.L. Robson & J. Shallcrass, op. cit. p.239-258.
 

Endnotes
1. Radio interview by Hamish Keith, 1971. Tape and transcription held in Radio Archives. ‘–’ indicates where word(s) cannot be heard or easily inferred.
2. O’Keefe (1982).
3. Sutch (1960) p.21.
4. Quoted in R. Butterworth & N. Tarling (1994) A Shakeup Anyway: Government and the Universities in New Zealand in a Decade of Reform, Auckland, p.19.
5 The next few paragraphs are informed by Y. Yonay, The Struggle over the Soul of Economics: Institutionalist and Neoclassical Economics in America between the Wars, Princeton.
6. op. cit. p.52.
7. P.A. Samuelson, ‘The Golden Virtue of Eclecticism in Economics’, The American Economist, Vol.44, No.1 (Spring 2000), p.4.
8. Jones (1999) await publication details.
9. Sutch (1942) p.v.
10. Brent McLintock has drawn my attention to:
When productive forces expand and improve or change materially this means that the substructure of society is altering, and the conditions of production (social relations of production) – law, institutions etc. – no longer quite fit the changed productive forces – and so the conditions of production gradually change. Society gets out of gear. The conservatives cling to old forms. (From a WEA lecture on Trade Union History, Sutch Papers, ATL, Acc 85-185-17-01)
            However the ‘gradually’ suggests Fabianism rather than Marxism.
11. Sutch (1964b). Sutch also advocated a decentralised televison system (1959). He decentralised the arts council in the 1970s.
12. The original quotation is by Morgan Phillips, and is cited in J. Callaghan, Time and Chance, London. Less alliteratively, Leslie Lipson says New Zealand was more influenced by Fabianism than Marxism. See L. Lipson (1948) The Politics of Inequality, Chicago, p.227.
13. S. Smith to Turnbull Librarian, 14 November 1989.
14. Sutch (1966b) p.338.
15. J. Weir (1996) ‘Russia Through New Zealand Eyes – to 1944,’ New Zealand Slavonic Journal, p.14-20.
16. The manuscript was never published. It is held by the daughter of its coauthor,
17. His memories of the Great Depression are recorded in T. Simpson (1974) The Sugarbag Years, Wellington, p.10-12, 92-93, 104-108, and Anderton, p.56-57.
18. Anderton, p.37.
19. Radio interview, 1971.
20. Interview of B.P. Philpott, reported in Bollinger (2000) 1/6.
21. C. MacLean, Tararua, Wellington, p.155-163.
22. O’Keefe (1982)
23. Barr (1973). Original’s emphasis.
24. Sutch, (1966b) p.338. A more detailed account by Dick Campbell (confirming Sutch’s account) is in The(Auckland) Weekly News, 29 August 1956, p.21.
25. J. Marshall (1989) Memoirs, Auckland, Vol II, p.144.
26. B.C. Ashwin The Practical Problems in Public Finance, Notes of a lecture to the Commerce Society, Victoria University College, 15 April, 1935. Copy held in MacMillan Brown collection of the University of Canterbury Library (presented by W. Rosenberg), p.11.
27. K. Sinclair (1976) Walter Nash, Auckland, p.144.
28. Alpers (1975) p.216.
29. He wrote a letter about the grass monoculture to G. A. Wood, the Government Statistician, on returning to New Zealand. Woods’ (not very enthusiastic) reply is in the Sutch Papers in the Alexander Turnbull Library, Acc-185, Box b.
30. W.B. Sutch (1962) Submissions to the Select Committee on the Fishing Industry, Wellington.
31. Revised version of B.H. Easton, ‘Fishy Tales’, Listener, Jan 18, 1997, p.60.
32. Alpers (1975) p.227-229.
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Bernard Ashwin: 1896-1975

Chapter 3 of The Nationbuilders

Keywords: Political Economy & History;

‘Fraser ruled in very close consultation with the Federation of Labour. The other powers in the land were Walter Nash and Bernard Ashwin.’ [1] ‘[He] was clearly one of a small group – Nash, Fraser, and Walsh being the others – who were at the centre of the decision making process.’ [2] For Ashwin, secretary of the Treasury from 1939 to 1955, that central role continued into the early years of the first National government.

He was much liked by his contemporaries, who – perhaps because they were so aware of his power – liked to recall his simple diction and his dry, sometimes irreverent, sense of humour, often  associated with a degree of self-deprecation. Geoff Schmitt, his personal assistant in the mid 1940s, tells how he ‘overcame a restriction preventing admission of non-military persons to a security area in Kent by pointing out that he was Paymaster General to the New Zealand Forces’. [3] In 1917, as a private in the New Zealand Expeditionary Force, Ashwin acquired a distaste for some of the more formal British he experienced. He liked to recall that the highest he got in his signals company was ‘acting lance-corporal’.

While Ashwin had an attractive personality, it was by intellect and position that he dominated the economics of nationbuilding policy from the 1930s to the mid 1950s. His personal views were clearly of the right. He was a fiscal conservative, as one would expect of any senior Treasury official. Government expenditure policy involves numerous ministers and departments, all anxious to spend the government’s money on the public’s behalf, and the lone Treasury and its minister have to raise the money.

Ashwin was also a political conservative. Of course, his official writings do not betray such leanings, addressing the specific question with a narrow answer dependent on the context, exactly as is required of a public servant. Yet there are numerous clues that he was on the political right: his general economic approach, his close friends, and his commercial career after Treasury. Even so, he was an interventionist nationbuilder.

Born in 1896, in Paeroa where his father was a storekeeper supplying the Waihi gold fields, Ashwin’s family later moved to Cambridge, where he had but two years at the local district high

school. He was the oldest of seven, and ‘the limits of my father’s purse decreed work for me’. Cambridge was still largely rural, and he recalled the ‘roses and buttercups’ of the farm. He even considered taking up farming under the rehabilitation scheme for returning soldiers after the First World War, an opportunity which a decade later he was glad to have turned down. [4]

We scroll forward to shortly after the Second World War. New Zealand and the US are negotiating in Washington over the windup of the Lend-Lease deal. Schmitt recalls:

“The difference in money was daunting. With an hour of the first session to go Ash obviously thought it was the occasion to play for time and regroup. So he started to talk about farms about Cambridge, describing them in some detail. . . . Then he had them ploughing up the pasture and the wife in the shed growing cabbage seedlings; then planting out, spraying with derris dust etc., etc., getting the order to produce the cabbages ‘nice and fresh’ for the US supply ship, cutting

them, terrible sore backs, etc. Then the punch line – ‘you chaps must be pretty dry after all the talking you’ve been doing. Show me the nearest pub, and it will be my shout.’ [It] took some explaining to tell the US types what was meant by ‘shout’! End of day one . . .

“ We went back to the legation. Ashwin and company got the embassy wives round and we repriced the meat and butter and cheese, and of course, cabbages at current US retail prices less a (modest for negotiation’s sake) margin back to wholesale. . . . we went back next day and say that, at common prices, we just about broke even. In fact they owed us just about $2m. . . . it was settled that we should settle for (I think) $US7mto them, to be paid in New Zealand currency, for a new house for the US emissary, and funding our end of the Fulbright [fellowships].

“. . . At a luncheon related to the signing, Eugene Black [the leader of the US team, later chairman of the World Bank] said ‘It is now written in the heart of everyone in the US Administration that, if ever a New Zealander starts talking about cabbages you might as well give

him what he wants, and save time.’” [5]

Schmitt’s story illustrates Ashwin as a superb negotiator. But it also reminds us of his origins: while one may take the boy out of the country, you can never quite take the country out of the boy. Ashwin was rooted in the texture of New Zealand life, of rural life, even though he was to live for over 60 years in Wellington.

Ashwin’s memoir, written in the late 1920s, says he wanted, but could not afford, to go to engineering school, and that there was ‘a narrow escape from becoming a bank clerk’, ironically for a man who became a founder and director of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The path to becoming New Zealand’s most powerful public servant began in June 1912, when Ashwin, not quite sixteen, went to Wellington to join the Education Department, one of three cadetships won in the public service entrance exams.

The First World War was his Overseas Experience. Like many others, he over-reported his age to join up in 1916. He spent seven months in England before going on to France. Free rail passes

enabled him to visit much of Britain. He visited the theatre as often as he could, cathedrals and churches, and once spent all night arguing the English land question with a stranger, who he found out later was the novelist Rider Haggard. ‘The class distinction, a comparative new thing to colonials, did not operate against us to anything like the effect to which it was observed in the case of less fortunate “Tommies”.’ Everyone made a great fuss of ‘colonials’. He served in Ypres. ‘Dead horses and mules were plentiful and tens of thousands of men had been buried all over the place. The countryside literally stank.’ He twice diced with death, probably more often, leaving us to wonder how many other less fortunate potential mid-century nationbuilders are buried in Europe.

He returned home after the Armistice. “As a result of the war I had seen much and learned much. I had some good times and some bad times, but fortunately the former sticks more in one’s memory. Still I never got quite used to army routine and having to obey orders from all sorts of people was irksome to me. . . . Before the war my chief interest in life was sport and my work merely a tiresome necessity. Coming back, with all my old associations completely severed

and older than my years as a result of my experiences I was forced to stand aside as it were and ponder as to which way I would go.”

He ‘wanted to be more than an ordinary clerk’ and began to study part-time, initially to qualify as an accountant. As Sam Barnett, a secretary of justice, has remarked, ‘pre-war, the only training for public servants in New Zealand was provided by the Society for [sic] Accountants’. [6] But for Ashwin, ‘accounting was becoming so popular . . . it was clearly advisable to go further’, to degrees in economics. In 1925 he graduated with an MCom in economics from Victoria University College.

Ashwin began work in the Treasury in 1922, marrying in 1926. He and Rachel had three children. From 1930 he appears regularly in the bureaucratic record. He was promoted to assistant account-

ant in February 1930, and prepared a Treasury paper on currency and monetary policy, presented as a personal view to the Economic Society in June 1930, which his colleague Dick Campbell saw as a key step in the development of the Reserve Bank. [7] In November 1931 he was promoted to second assistant secretary, a newly established position, probably created for him. The report of the Economic Committee – commissioned by cabinet (by Coates?), and signed by four academics (James Hight, Horace Belshaw, Douglas Copland and Arthur Tocker) and by the secretary of the Treasury – ‘express[es] its thanks to Mr Ashwin . . . who was constantly in

attendance’. [8]

He became first assistant secretary in  1935. He was not a member of Coates’s brains trust, a postscript in a letter by Coates in 1934 explaining: ‘I don’t see how the Treasury could possibly spare Ashwin, though were it otherwise there is nobody whose services would be more acceptable to me.’ [9] He was close to Coates, even before he became minister of finance, as is indicated by the visit to the bankers in 1931 or 1932, which led to the creation of the Reserve Bank ofNew Zealand. Later Justice Arthur Tyndall described him as ‘the father and mother and everything else of the [Reserve Bank] Act’. [10 ] (Ashwin demurred: ‘that may be going a little too far’.)

In the 1930s he was the Treasury’s only economist. He had a strong grasp of the positive theory of markets (how they work), but little of the normative theory of markets, of welfare economics and how the market can generate allocative efficiency, since those branches of the subject had been developed after he left university. His economics training would have emphasised the importance of physical investment in the growth process. We see this concern in his occasional writings, as when he criticised government spending to reduce unemployment on the grounds that it diverted the money from capital formation. (Marxists would readily categorise Ashwin’s activities as the state being used by capitalists as an instrument of capital accumulation.)

When Keith Holyoake became minister of marketing in 1949, he received some long memoranda from Ashwin advocating major reform and liberalisation. Thus Ashwin was not an arch-interven-

tionist, great interventionist though he was in the 1940s. Markets and interventions were a means to an end. In Ashwin’s day all economists studied Alfred Marshall, who defined a good economist as one who has ‘less need of elaborate scientific methods, than a shrewd mother-wit, a sound sense of proportion, and a large experience of life’. [11]

Perhaps the significant event for the putative nationbuilder was that humiliation by the trading bankers. It was reinforced by a second great humiliation of New Zealand by the financial system

in 1939, where (uniquely) Ashwin was also involved. The requirement to roll over some £17m of British-based debt plus the need for more borrowing – there was an exchange crisis – had Nash travelling to London. The British reaction was hostile, ranging from antagonism to the recently imposed import controls (which they thought were an abrogation of the Ottawa Agreement because it limited access by British manufactures), to anger at the focus on welfare rather than preparation for war, and to dismay at the economic crisis which seemed to be overwhelming New Zealand. Among the options considered by the British government were ‘take over’ and bankrupting New Zealand, although neither option was thought practical. Instead, the loans were offered on appallingly harsh terms, and although eventually those terms were moderated, the experience reinforced the Labour government’s dislike for overseas borrowing. [12]

Ashwin was in Wellington receiving the cables. He knew there was an exchange crisis: export revenue was not keeping pace with import payments, despite the recently imposed import controls; private capital movements were unfavourable; and foreign suppliers were reluctant to provide trade credit. He was turning his mind to the use of exchange controls, perhaps out of desperation, and developing internal loans to soak up domestic savings:

“Nash has had a rough spin in London. Terms of conversion of the 1940 maturity (pay off £2min 1940 and £3.5m thereafter) are severe but the proposals submitted in the course of negotiations practically amounted to putting in a receiver. I attended Cabinet daily while cables [were] considered. Each day as the latest cable was read out the first comment came from [Bob] Semple (Minister of Public Works) – Tell them to go to Hell – and most of the Cabinet were inclined to

support that view. Each time I had the job of pointing out that we were not in a position to do that.” [13]

Such are the experiences which create nationbuilders, committed to national independence, concerned about their country having the policy instruments and institutions, such as the Reserve Bank, to frustrate international bullying.

The history of economic policy development in the 1930s has thus far largely been written by historians, and largely through pink and populist (even Social Credit) glasses. The approach is extremely critical of official policy. Of course there was incompetence. In retirement Campbell wrote: ‘if Ashwin had been there, instead of subordinate to [A. D.] Park and [G. C.] Rodda [the

secretaries of the Treasury before Ashwin], at least there’d have been an above-average intelligence at the top. There wasn’t.’ [14] Nevertheless much of the criticism is excessive and misdirected, taking into account neither the size of the external shock nor the lack of economic instruments to deal with it.

The deep depression of the early 1930s haunted the nationbuilders. We do not know the effect of the record unemployment on Ashwin, but we know later he was anxious to promote New Zealand industry by active intervention. He would have been particularly concerned about the lack of a reserve bank and other macroeconomic policy instruments, the mismanagement of the

loans account, and the dreadfully imbalanced fiscal stance.

Ashwin was not just the Treasury’s longest-serving (co-equal) secretary, but at 43 one of its youngest, [15] nd the Treasury’s first graduate. By the time Ashwin left Treasury there were 31 graduates in the main division alone. Despite Ashwin’s pleasure at such numbers, these statistics hardly represent his significance to Treasury. As Leslie Lipson commented in 1949: ‘In recent years, however, the powers and influence of Treasury have been considerably strengthened by a vigorous secretary. Originally an agency which did little else than prescribe departmental accounting systems, it acquired a stricter control over departmental appropriations since the depression.’ [16] The Treasury extended its role as the keeper of the government finances to become economic manager as well – from bookkeepers to analysts, the path Ashwin himself followed. If there be any doubt, consider the 1928 National Industrial Conference, a Coates initiative, which was attended by over 70 delegates from the private and public sectors, including five university economists and nine heads of government departments. The record shows no Treasury representation. That has been unthinkable since Ashwin’s time.

Ashwin served longest under Walter Nash. He kept a personal diary in the first months when he became secretary of the Treasury in February  1939. Only a month into the new job he shrewdly

summarises Nash, after commenting that ‘matters drift dangerously’:

“In [import licensing] and many other things the driving force is Walter Nash and he is definitely not a man of action. Other Ministers lean on him or fret at his delay but he keeps a tight hold on most things. He works hard in his office till midnight every night and is there on Sundays. His room is referred to as ‘the cemetery’ by other ministers who are unable to get decisions out of him. He has hundreds of files in his room and some of them have been there for months. He has a curious habit of sorting them up and stacking them neatly periodically. He is probably the best brain in the ministry and he is fond of ideals to improve the lot of mankind and [the] feelings(?) of the people. In his opinion anyone should be willing to work for £500 a year. [About twice the average male wage.] While personally pleasant to meet and a likeable person in many respects he is suspicious and does not really trust anyone very far. His egoism is unbounded. His greatest failings are indecision and a passion for detail. He wastes hours each day over matters that [he] should not consider at all, while urgent matters of national importance are laid to one side. I sometimes feel that he turns to small things for relief from big ones.” [17]

In the case of Savage and Fraser, Ashwin started off distancing himself, but later became respecting of, and warm towards, them. Ashwin’s relations with Nash were more of a trial, moderated by the time Nash spent overseas.

“[T]he fact that Nash refused to resign when he took up his position in Washington did make things a little awkward for me although I had no difficulty in carrying on without him. . . . Nash could not hope to run Treasury from 12,000 miles away. I wrote all the budgets and although he arrived to present them, there was never time for him to alter anything of basic importance. I let him play with a few words to make him feel that he had contributed to the budget, for Nash had a great love of the theatrical and made a great show of presenting ‘his’ budget to the house [18]

(The practice of the Treasury writing the entire budget was not new. Ashwin’s predecessor remarked: ‘we never consult a minister in advance of preparing a budget.’[19])

The gossip has it that Ashwin was frustrated by Nash’s dithering (plus the uncaring way he treated his officials). There is a story of  Ashwin standing over Nash in his last day in office in 1949, and taking a grim pleasure in insisting that Nash sign some documents over which he had been delaying.

In contrast, Ashwin was extremely popular among those who worked for him. Henry Lang, a subsequent Treasury secretary, described him as an ‘excellent manager of staff’, and ‘very accessible’. Schmitt uses the expression that the staff used to ‘worship’ Ashwin. An outsider, Jim (J. C.) Fletcher reported he was ‘approachable’ and ‘an outstanding public servant’. In contrast to most public servants he was a ‘visionary’. [20]

The promotion of industrialisation was part of his vision, a strategy reinforced by war needs. In 1942, faced with a crisis of a lack of equipment, Ashwin became deputy chairman of the newly

established Supply Council. He commented that ‘he was left with a good deal of authority and discretion with which to act’. There was ‘only the flimsiest of engineering industry’ and yet by ‘improvisation we did manage to achieve some impressive results which meant that the country would not have been completely lacking in defensive equipment had the Japanese threat eventuated’.

“Rifle ammunition was desperately short . . . there was only enough for one decent skirmish. Ammunition was manufactured by the Colonial Ammunition Company in Auckland but, as it was situated right by the Mount Eden prison, it was regarded as a too obvious target for the Japanese. The Supply Council requested that it be shifted but Army said this was not possible as production had to be maintained. . . . First the ammunition producing plants were converted to an independent source of power. . . . The Waikato was chosen for it was necessary to defend the area as it held the country’s key power operations. We arranged with Fletcher to build a number of small Army type sheds. The ammunition producing plant was placed on the back of the trucks, the girls who worked the machines were put in the cab, and the machinery shifted to the huts in the Waikato. The whole operation was so well planned that production loss was only a matter of hours.” [21]

At the same time Ashwin was in charge of financing the war, and his office was close to those of James Fletcher, commissioner of defence construction (J.C.’s father), and F. P. Walsh. Wellington was a small, intimate, and informal place for those inside.

‘At the official level [of economic policy] the dominance of Sir Bernard Ashwin [was] extraordinary.’ [22] In 1943 he was made chairman of the newly established Economic Stabilisation Commission. As well as secretary to the Treasury and chairman of the ESC and the chairman (in effect) of the Supply Council, he was chairman of the Office of National Development and served on the boards of the State Advances Corporation, the Defence Council,

and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, where his resignation in 1955 left a vacuum.

A constant preoccupation of any Treasury secretary (indeed of any Treasury official) is fiscal control. In Ashwin’s case his natural conservatism would have been reinforced by experiences in the early  1930s, when the government’s fiscal position was under extreme pressure. [23] A paper he presented in 1935 is instructive not only for the way he passes quickly over theory to get to the practicalities of the current situation, but how modern his analysis sounds half a century later. (That impish sense of humour could not resist ‘it is not unknown for men to join in some resolution [that public expenditure must be drastically cut] and then in some other capacity go with a deputation to the government with a request that involves further government expenditure.’) [24]

As Treasury secretary, Ashwin travelled overseas extensively; he was at Bretton Woods (for the founding of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank), and negotiated with the British government for the meat and dairy prices. A widely quoted story is that the two Treasuries would settle the deal on the first day, and then there would be more public negotiations to come to the same agreement. It is said that once the parties disagreed by a farthing on the price of butter, and that the dispute was settled by a game of snooker in which Ashwin represented New Zealand. Although versions differ as to whether he won or lost, we may be sure that the outcome was judiciously in New Zealand’s long-term interests.

One consequence of the overseas travelling was a network of contacts in foreign financial markets, which became especially useful for government financing. This was illustrated by the

founding in 1946 of BP (NZ), which was 51 percent owned by the New Zealand government,  49 percent by the British company (itself with substantial British government ownership). Ashwin was ‘largely responsible for BP getting off the ground’. [25] He was a director from  1946 to  1967. Significantly, in  1957 Ashwin was angry when the National government sold its share to the parent company. One takes it that he saw New Zealand ownership and control of the oil company as a part of the nation’s independence.

It does not follow that Ashwin always favoured public ownership. He rejected the full nationalisation of the Bank of New Zealand in 1945, taking the view that public ownership was unnecessary since the Reserve Bank controlled trading banks. But ownership of an oil company gave the New Zealand government information about world oil prices, helping it to monitor and

reduce transfer pricing. The full nationalisation of the BNZ and the failure to join the IMF are among the few occasions where Ashwin’s views did not prevail. The Social Crediters in the Labour caucus were probably as much the bane of his life as was Nash.

Social security was another trial. Ashwin was on the departmental committee on national superannuation and health insurance which reported to Coates in 1935, and all the major officials’ committees which reported to the Labour government in preparation for the passing of the 1938 Social Security Act. Most accounts of its development focus on the conflict in the Labour caucus and overlook the technical constraints of funding, eligibility and generosity which the officials faced. To simplify, the 1936 interdepartmental committee investigated a scheme based on the election manifesto, estimated at costing 14.5 percent of GDP. The cost steadily came down as eligibility was tightened and generosity reduced. It was almost halved by the time of the caucus committee report, and another third was clipped by the time it was introduced in 1939–40. Yet the 4.0 percent of GDP was still more than double the cost of the old scheme. [26] The big reductions were in the provision for the elderly and the slower implementation of the

health benefits.

Ashwin resisted the various extensions, on fiscal grounds. In 1938 he was arguing against the size and generosity of the scheme (especially the age of universal eligibility), claiming that ‘the budget would be virtually out of control’ and it would ‘endanger the financial stability of the Dominion’. [27] When the war broke out, he advised Nash to postpone the parts of the universal health and superannuation components of the scheme not yet introduced. In 1955, to the royal commission on money and banking, Ashwin was still doubtful about the sustainability of this later scheme (which then was costing 6.7 percent of GDP). Undoubtedly social security (or, more precisely, its substantial extension) was a major achievement of the first Labour government, but it succeeded in the form for which it is much admired because it was made fiscally sustainable by people like Ashwin. As Robert Muldoon was to learn in the mid-1970s, an overgenerous pension scheme may be electorally attractive but causes severe fiscal and economic problems.

Perhaps Ashwin’s greatest industry achievement, nicely illustrating his pragmatism, was his involvement in the founding of the Tasman operation at Kawerau, the pulp and paper mill which was to process Pinus radiata from the vast Kaiangaroa forest, the planting of which had been begun in the 1920s. His son says Ashwin thought the project so important that he talked of giving up the Treasury secretary job early, so that he could be more closely involved in it. But when he in fact retired in 1955, not yet 59 and entitled to another six years of service, the deciding factor may have been sheer exhaustion. Moreover early retirement meant that he could still enjoy a new career as a company director. While his power may have diminished, his networks and mana did not. In 1957, Sutch asked for his support when applying for the secretaryship of Industries and Commerce. [28]

He remained one of the three government appointments on the Tasman board, and was their director of finance. He ran the Tasman office in Wellington (from the BP building) until his five-

year appointment ended in 1960, when he was replaced by the then secretary to the Treasury. The government then appointed him to the Dairy Products Price Authority. As well as BP(NZ), he held a number of directorships in the private sector, very often involved with the private financing and construction of nationbuilding projects (including the Coastlands shopping centre at Paraparaumu, which was once the only significant shopping centre in the Wellington area open on weekends).

The Tasman story straddles both the public and private sectors, so typical of New Zealand’s industrial development. So here it straddles two chapters, with the post-1950 development  covered in the chapter on James Fletcher. It is also a story in which the environment and the economy interact.

Around 200AD, a central North Island volcano, whose crater is now Lake Taupo, erupted. The clouds reached the Northern Hemisphere and were recorded by the Romans and Chinese, the first time that something happening in New Zealand came to the attention of mankind. The scattered ash lacked cobalt, molybdenum, and selenium. Without those trace minerals, livestock grazing on the Central North Island land wasted away with bush sickness, as the nineteenth-century pastoralists soon learned. (Vogel’s solution, it will be recalled, was to grow fruit trees as the basis for an export canning industry.) From  1913 the land was planted in radiata pine, a Californian tree which flourishes in New Zealand. During the interwar period large areas of the Kaiangaroa

forest were planted by the government as a form of regional employment and to provide an alternative source of timber as the native forests were depleted.

Pat Entrican, the director of the Forest Service appointed in 1939, saw the potential and commissioned a report from a newsprint manufacturer in 1941. Ashwin was ‘generally sympathetic with the proposal and . . . inclined to suggest for the government’s consideration that it might be adopted.’ He saw advantages from direct employment and savings in foreign exchange (but he was not then thinking of its export potential) in that ‘the scheme, if sound, should assist in the widening of the diversity of industry which is so desirable to a balanced economy’. But he was not ‘satisfied that the future income and outgo is reliably estimated’, expressing reservations as to the project’s profitability.[29]

The war set aside the ambitions, as it did for so many others, the trees kept a-growing, and when the project was revisited in 1947 the costs had leapt to five times the original estimate (but still

only a third of the actual outcome). The cabinet had agreed with the principle of the scheme in April  1949. Ashwin became increasingly cautious. He told Nash: ‘As you are aware our present

capital programme is much in excess of available capital resources and therefore inflationary, and it is clear that the large project in addition to the Roxburgh hydro scheme and other large works

cannot be financed from internal savings.’ (About the same time he was advising delaying the Auckland Harbour Bridge for the same reasons.) He recommended that the project be established in the form of a corporation or company, that £6m be raised in share capital and that the company would pay half the capital costs and the government would assist by advancing the rest in the form of interim funding. Later, approaches should be made to the likely large subscribers. This is almost exactly what emerged in 1955. [30]

Entrican said that Ashwin was showing ‘passive resistance’. But this is no more than fiscal conservatism. Ashwin had expressed anxiety about the already substantial pressure on the Reserve Bank to increase the money stock. Basically he saw a private contribution to funding (less than half, for the infrastructural costs including rail, roads, port, rental housing, and electricity would be borne by the government) as a means of relieving the pressure. He may have favoured private enterprise, but his positive response to the government’s purchasing a majority share holding of BP(NZ) shows a pragmatic approach rather than the ideological position of

a free enterpriser.

Ashwin and Entrican were involved in a dispute about the nature of the government’s involvement in the Tasman enterprise. It was a heated one, not least because Entrican was a ‘man who was quick to state his own opinion’, in contrast to Ashwin’s more taciturn approach. [31] It can be usefully portrayed as an argument about the means by which the project should proceed. On a spectrum from government department to private corporation, Entrican favoured the left and Ashwin was, with J. C. Fletcher, more to the right. The dispute was more about means than ends. The government finance and support was provided by a (right-wing) National government led by Holland who, though at first suspicious of his public servants, came to respect Ashwin. He was knighted in 1956.

Tasman was not the last time Ashwin as secretary of the Treasury was involved in the development of industry. The secret, but abortive, negotiations between the British and New Zealand governments to convert geothermal steam into heavy water for the British nuclear power industry (which led to the geothermal electricity generation programme) took place in Ashwin’s office.

The end was economic nationhood, with New Zealand trading internationally but having the independence and status of a nation, not a colony. The New Zealand country boy who got to Bretton Woods, via the hardships of the war in France, the self-discipline of a part-time MCom, and the policy shambles at the beginning of the Great Depression, saw the need for nationhood, as much as did the younger Sutch, who had similar – yet different – experiences and saw things from a different political perspective. The 30-year-old Ashwin wrote, before his distinguished career was to be evident, that in early adolescence, ‘I acquired a desire which I did not entirely abandon for many years to be an engineer and build bridges and tall buildings’. [32]

Instead he became a social engineer, and built the mid-century New Zealand economy.

Endnotes

1 K. Sinclair (1976) Walter Nash, Auckland, p.208.

2 J. Martin (1991) ‘Economic Policy Making n the Early Post-war Years’, Society an Culture: Economic Perspectives, Proceedings of the Sesquicentennial Conference of the New Zealand Association of Economists, Vol I, June 1991, New Zealand Association of Economists, Wellington, pp.245–72.

3 From a memoir written by G. Schmitt in 1997. A copy in Ashwin files of B. H. Easton.

4 The quotations in this and the next few paragraphs come from a memoir written by Ashwin between 1926 and 1929, held in the Ashwin family papers.

5 Schmitt (1997), p.63.

6 Campbell papers. (Notes on A. D. Park.) Original emphasis by Campbell.

7 B. C. Ashwin (1930) ‘Banking and Currency in New Zealand,’ Economic Record, 6 (November 1930), pp.188–204.

8 Ashwin memoir, p.7.

9 Coates Papers MS 1785/188, held in Alexander Turnbull Library.

10 Proceedings of the Royal Commission on Monetary, Banking, and Credit Systems, Wellington, 1956.

11 A. Marshall Principles of Economics, 8th edition, London, 1920, reset and reprinted 1949, p.642.

12 Sinclair (1976), pp.170–89.

13 Ashwin diary, 8 October 1939.

14 Campbell papers, letter to W. B. Sutch, 30 Sept 1971.

15 Second only to Murray Horne (1993–97).

16 L. Lipson (1949) The Politics of Equality: New Zealand’s Adventures in Democracy, p.443.

17 Ashwin diary, 8 October 1939.

18 Henderson (1970), p.7.

19 Henderson (1970), pp.13–14.

20 These quotations come from interviews I had with the three.

21 Campbell papers, letter to W. B. Sutch, 1 July 1973.

22 Martin (1991), p.217.

23 As well as the revenue fall-off, the government’s London borrowing was inept. See Campbell papers. (Notes on A.D. Park.)

24 B. C. Ashwin The Practical Problems in Public Finance, Notes of a lecture to the Commerce Society, Victoria University College, 15 April, 1935. Copy held in Macmillan Brown collection of the University of Canterbury Library (presented by W. Rosenberg).

25 J. C. Fletcher, interview, 13 February 1997.

26 Expenditure figures from Hanson (1980), pp.154–5; GDP figures from Easton (1997), In Stormy Seas, p.299.

27 Ashwin to Nash, 4 Aug 1938, T25/20. National Archives.

28 G. Fraser (1990) Both Eyes Open: A Memoir, Auckland, p.114.

29 M. Guest (1997) ‘The Murupara Project: The Tasman Pulp and Paper Company Ltd and Industrial Development in New Zealand 1945–1963’, MA thesis, Victoria University of Wellington, pp.36–7.

30 Op cit., pp.40–3. Much of the material in this paragraph is based on a letter from Ashwin to Nash dated 24 August 1949.

31 Op cit. pp.40–3.

32 Ashwin memoirs.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Barr J. C. (1969) ‘Interview of B. C. Ashwin’, Alexander Turnbull Oral History Archive.

Easton, B. H. (1997) ‘Bernard Ashwin: Secretary of the Nation Building State’ New Zealand Studies, Nov 1997, pp.13–21.

Easton, B. H. (1998) ‘Ashwin, Bernard Carl’ DNZB, Vol. IV, pp.21–2.

Easton, B. H. (1998) ‘Fraser and the Development of the Nation-Building State’, in M.Clark (ed) Peter Fraser: Master Politician, Palmerston North, pp.119–30.

Henderson, J. (1970) ‘Interview with B. C. Ashwin’, copy held in Ashwin family papers.

The Ashwin family papers, which include a memoir written from about 1926 to 1929, and a diary of 1939.

I have collected a couple of box files on Ashwin, which will eventually be deposited at the Alexander Turnbull Library. The files include memoirs written about Ashwin by G. Schmitt in 1997.

Sutch and Security

This was originally intended as an appendix to Chapter 10 of The Nationbuilders. It was decided that the story distracted from the main themes of the chapter (and the book) and was omitted. It is placed here on the record. This is the version prepared in September 2000.

Keywords: Political Economy & History;

The evidence that Sutch was security compromised before the meetings which led up to the incident in Holloway Road in 1974 is almost non-existent. It is true he admired the Soviet Union, and the US government treated him as a security risk in the 1950s, although given its McCarthiest frame of mind that may say no more than he had thwarted the US over UNICEF, and in New York he was friends of East-Central Europeans (some of whom subsequently fled to the West), although apparently he had little to do with the Russians.

We have a reasonable idea of what was on his security file (all public servants had one). The memoirs of his minister, John Marshall, devote more space to Sutch than to his long time colleague Keith Holyoake. They record
“A security check not long before his retirement in 1964 did reveal visits to the home of a member of the Communist Party, but no more than that. Some people, from time to time, alleged that Sutch was a communist, but there was no positive proof to support the charge … the final act of folly which, at last gave hard evidence of his communist sympathies and in more ways than one, exposed his double life.25. Marshall, p.145-146.”(1)

In summary there was no hard evidence that Sutch was a spy, other than an interpretation of the events of 1974.

The trial confirms Marshall’s 1964 report. The prosecution must have known they had a thin circumstantial case. Yet they did not attempt to bolster it with evidence of spy activities before 1974. Why not? At the depositions, no evidence was supplied of his compromised security status, but the prosecutor said enquiries were being made overseas. Nothing was provided during the trial. All the prosecution had was the hope that if Sutch had testified, a fishing expedition might have elicited some incriminating evidence. But Sutch chose not to enter the witness stand, on the basis he had no case to answer.

The assessment of Sutch security status therefore depends upon what happened in 1974. Dimitri Razgovorov, a KGB agent, who had recently come out to New Zealand, was almost certainly not considered very high powered (Why waste someone of ability on New Zealand? The local spy industry wants you to think that New Zealand was a major centre for espionage operations but they would, wouldn’t they?) This assessment is reinforced by the Soviet legation’s Charge d’Affaire, Alexei Makarov, who has expressed a low opinion of the agent’s ability.

According to Makarov, Razgovorov was keen to demonstrate his competence, so we may assume that he approached Sutch, possibly others, to elicit information. One thing which gives Sutch’s account credibility is his report of the simplicity of the questions asked of him such as ‘what was the attitude of the New Zealand Chinese to the Chinese government?’ It seems unlikely that he made them up.(2) They are consistent with Makarov’s description of Razgovorov, while the siege mentality of the embassy (reinforced by the various restrictions the New Zealand government placed on it) would not have helped. Razgovorov’s espionage skills do not seem overwhelming. Indeed the meeting venues were outside, open and easily observed, and the Russians went there is an easily identifiable embassy car, suggesting they were hardly secret. The Hopper Street meeting took place in the most lighted entrance in the street, and in full view of two NZSIS outposts. (This has encouraged some to suggest that Razgovorov was a CIA plant framing Sutch, but he did return to Moscow. Another theory is that the KGB wanted to damage Sutch’s reputation.)

Why did Sutch respond to Razgovorov? He said he was curious. No doubt he was flattered. He may have lost some of his judgement and intellectual quickness towards the end of his life, perhaps from the atheroma of the brain which the autopsy identified. In any case it was a stupid thing to do, and does not suggest someone who had a long history of thinking about passing on secret information.

If Sutch prepared information for Razgovorov it could not have been more than what was in the public domain which an informed person might know. One of the greatest problems in this whole story is what information could Sutch have had. He had been out of government for over eight years, and his only government appointment was Chairman of the Queen Elizabeth Arts Council, which is unlikely to have been an interest of the KGB. (The right of the spy industry has suggested he may have been an intermediary for some other spy or mole (unnamed) who had collected secret information (unspecified but possibly commercial) to be passed on. If one believes Sutch was a spy, there is no trouble constructing a story plausibility and Occam’s razor will not be a part of the tool kit.)

Some of the events involving the arrest had a keystone cops aura. (For instance while Sutch presented himself as a fastidious man, but do not forget his tramping background. So instead of availing himself of the nearby public lavatory, he used the bushes. Had he been more delicate, he would have entered a building in which a number of policemen were secreted, presumably pretending to be the Holloway Road Gay Club. Instead, some poor cop had to search through the nitrogenated bushes in case Sutch had put something else there.) One cannot help feeling that had the matter been handled better, it would never have gone to trial. Some of Sutch’s responses did not help.

For the record, a jury of New Zealanders found Sutch not guilty of the charge. Extraordinarily he was not demoralized by the events, and bore himself afterwards with considerable dignity. Yet the arrest and trial seems likely to have hastened him to a death at 68 later that year.

This prosaic reconstruction of the events – while lacking the romance of the spy novels, reports or films – reflects the reality of most security transactions. Alas, there is nothing here that will persuade the spy industry that things were this simple. They will continue to create psuedo-facts to pursue their own beliefs. After all, it is the only New Zealand spy case they have.

Endnotes
1.. J.Marshall (1989) Memoirs, Auckland, Vol II, p.145-146.
2. Shirley Smith reports the other questions were ‘What did the New Zealand Jews think of Israel?’ and ‘How do I get in touch with the New Zealand Israeli Society?’

Cultural Commerce

Listener 2 September 2000

Keywords: Literature; Social Policy;

This column is written more in sorrow than anger. Hopes were high when the then Leader of the Opposition, Helen Clark, announced that on assuming the premiership she would also take the Arts and Culture ministerial portfolio. The National Government had been squeezing public spending and that, with the appointments it was making, was generating an authoritarian, politically correct, and backward-looking distribution of the limited funds and leadership in the arts and heritage sector. Hopes were exceeded with Clark’s announcement of some $86m funding for the next three years, although much was a catch-up of the deficit arising from the miserliness of the previous government.

Then the HOT (heart of the) Nation report was published. Written by a government appointed group from the cultural sector, its purpose was to give new directions to cultural policy. The government has not adopted the report, and so nothing said in this column about the report reflects on the government (other than, perhaps, the wisdom evidenced by choosing that particular group). What is distressing is what the report says about the state of the leadership of the cultural sector.

One is immediately struck by the report’s language. It defines activities in terms of ‘cultural enterprises’ and ‘cultural industries.’ A large part of the report is devoted to ‘the market’ and ‘investment’. It writes about ‘economic returns’ and ‘value chains’. In places it reads like a business magazine. Sadly the report’s writers have adopted the language and framework of commercialisation.

One had hoped that the Labour prime minister had taken over the portfolio because she wanted to abandon the narrow focus, and the even narrower policy, of treating arts and heritage (and a whole lot of other activities) as if they were businesses, assessed by business performance measures, and run on business principles. The previous government had tried that strategy. It failed. Clark may still be seeking an alternative. If so, her advisers let her down badly. The HOT Nation report is presented in a context of political correctness and some nonsensical economics. Ignore these, and the report is left with a commercialisation framework

It is not simply that one might have hoped for a different leadership from the cultural community, perhaps even generating a framework which could also be applied to other activities where business principles are clearly inadequate and insufficient. More worrying is that the report’s writer has not learned from the experiences of others, almost as though they have not been living in New Zealand over the last two decades. Education, universities and science research went down a similar advocacy path. Previous governments took them at their word and began running the sectors on the commercialist lines that underpinned the advocacy. They are now suffering from constrictive policies which prevent them from doing what they do well and pursuing their fundamental purposes. If the policies which have been imposed on the universities were applied to Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT, they too would have been remorselessly turned into centres of mediocrity and stress.

Other sectors – notably health, broadcasting and the core public service have had business principles forced over them too, and suffered in similar ways. One hoped the prime minister secretly wanted to get the arts and heritage activities properly (and non-commercially) functioning, in order to shed some light on how to treat other activities so they do what is required of them, rather than what business principles said they should.

It is not widely known that in 1984 a government taskforce reviewed economic policy. The outcome was the policies of privatisation et al in the private sector and trying to run the public sector like businesses. The taskforce probably did not have education, arts and heritage in mind (although it almost certainly had science, perhaps because its approach was so anti-scientific and it was eliminating opposition). Arts and education suffered from collateral damage as the commercialisation policies were imposed unthinkingly everywhere.

Most ministers probably do not accept commercialisation as underpinning their approach, but policy advice continues to be dominated by it. What else is there to offer as a comprehensive approach? Alternative viewpoints have long been eliminated from the advice loop. There appears to be no similar taskforce established in 2000 to offer an alternative. We have a recipe for tears, although we do not know whether it will be the government, the advisers, the economy or the electorate who will be crying. (I’d bet at least three out of four.)

The HOT Nation report is a gift to a future right wing ideologically driven government. Strip out the political correctness and the bad economics, and one has a framework justifying commercialisation, accelerating the thin nasty authoritarian unimaginative colonial outcomes which the policies of the 1990s were producing. This is not to ignore some sensible and innovative ideas in the report, but they are overwhelmed by the commercialisation framework, and can be quickly discarded in favour of the application of business principles, to be administered by business leaders.

It seems inappropriate to finish with a literary allusion, so I use a metaphor from another part of our heritage: Cultural Community 0 Commercialisers 1 (own goal).

The Sustainability Of Student Loans

Paper for the ‘Student Loans Summit’, 25 August, 2000

Keywords Education

It is important when thinking about Student Loans, or indeed about any other facit of government policy, that the policy which drives it is seen as a part of a total policy framework evolved out of a taskforce which was established in 1984 to completely review government policy. I imagine at the time that some of the outcomes of the taskforce thinking were expected like privatisation and corporatisation. But the comprehensive framework of commercialisation may well not have been, nor may they have expected the proposals to, say, reform student access to tertiary education. That was to come later. By that time the rule of making government activities run as though they were business ones, was no totally accepted in the policy community, and it was natural to do that as much as the public would allow. What that means is that the policy of student loans have to be seen in this wider context, and to challenge them involves a different policy framework.

That policy framework hardly exists. Certainly there has since been no taskforce with as comprehensive a remit as the 1984 one to offer an alternative. Since there is not time to take on the full might of the alternative policy framework, today I am going to accept the commercialisation framework and show how the current policy leads to problems, some of which are potentially serious in the long run.

In order to get the framework underway, we need to recognize that student debt is not a simple liability like a mortgage or overdraft. Repayment is contingent on the income stream of the debtor involved, and that income stream is uncertain. The technical term for the loan from the position of the student is a ‘contingent liability’. There is a good reason why the proponents of the student loan scheme do not use the precise term. For one thing it would display to the world that essentially the scheme is not more than a raising of the income tax levy on some parts of the population those with the contingent liability from the student debt in order to lower it in the rest, particular those of us who got a free tertiary institution, or who have been able to pay off their contingent liability.

There is a second reason, why there is not a lot of enthusiasm to call the student debt by a more precise term. Every liability of a person or institution has to be matched by an asset of some person or institution. Thus if student debt is a contingent liability, it has to be matched by a contingent asset. The holder of the contingent asset is the government. However were it to be described as a contingent asset the government’s statement of financial position would look a lot less satisfactory than it is. Here is a recent statement for of the government’s position for May of this year.

What it shows is that the government has a net worth in the statement of financial position called the ‘Crown Balance’ of $8.2b, made up of $ 60.9b of assets less $52.6b of liabilities. However $3.4b of those assets are contingent assets, dependent on the students for whom they are contingent liabilities earning sufficient income to pay them off and not being of low income, bankrupt, disappearing out of the IRD records, or finding a tax haven to shield them from the repayment of the liability.

That means that currently slightly less than half of the so-called net worth of the crown is covered by the contingent assets of student loans.

Think ahead. Current projections suggest that the student loan contingent liability will total above $20 billion in twenty years. We do not know what the state of the government accounts will be in 2020, but we can be almost certain that under current fiscal policies, the contingent asset will make up a larger proportion of total assets in the government accounts. Indeed, depending on policy outcomes, it may exceed net worth. What this means is that an increasingly important component of the government financial position is dependent upon the contingent asset of student loans.

Now there is a sense in which all assets are contingent assets, in the sense that their value is dependent upon uncertain future events. Accountants have procedures for allowing for these uncertainties. In the case of the contingent assets they write off some of the debt, on the basis that not all the debt will be recovered. In effect the total of all outstanding student debt exceeds that which is reported in the New Zealand government accounts.

Some of the write-offs are straight forward, as when the debtor dies or goes bankrupt. However how much should there be a write-off for the fact that students who are currently alive will never pay off all their debt, for whatever reason – insufficient incomes, escape overseas, fraud, or tax avoidance. Very often the government will not find about these failures for forty and more years into the future. But prudent accounting practice is that there should be some provision for them being written off now. Otherwise the value of the contingent assets is misleading.

Now there are rules on how much should be written off, but they involve judgements, which are particularly tricky when there is so little experience of the scheme. I was surprised when I looked at them, that in recent years only 3.0 to 3.5 percent of the outstanding balances are being written off. The underlying assumption is that around 10 percent of student debt will be doubtful debts and not be recovered, together with write-offs from death and bankruptcy. This suggests either students are exceptionally honest (or not very imaginative) or the Department of Inland Revenue is exceptionally efficient or vigorous. If these assumptions were wrong, then the true level of the contingent value would be lower, the government’s net worth would be correspondingly lower, and in some years the government would be making a deficit when it was claiming to be making a surplus.

My doubts were reinforced when I read last June’s report of the Controller and Auditor General. Its conclusion is that

“There is limited analysis on the financial risks attached to the Scheme, which makes it difficult for Parliament and the public to have an informed debate about the size valuation, financial performance and debt recovery of the Scheme, These factors make it difficult for student loan policy to be reviewed in terms of unintended socio-economic outcomes.” (Report of the Controller and Auditor General, Student Loan Scheme – Publicly Available Accountability Information, p. 29.)

And, I would add, for the policy to be reviewed in terms of its macroeconomic impact, its implications for human resources, and the usefulness of the government balance sheet.

A third method of measuring the value of the contingent assets would be to find out what they would be worth if they were ‘securitised’ sold to the private sector. (Note I am not arguing the government assets should be privatised, but this is the correct measure of value under the commercialisation policy framework.) This would reflect their true value allowing for the administrative costs the write-offs and doubtful debts, and the current interest charges. My guess is that if the government tried to sell the assets on the open market, they would get about half the value of what they are shown in the government accounts.

In summary then the figures that appear in the government accounts appear to be subject to a wide margin of error, and are probably overvalued. The error is of sufficient size to leave the Auditor General wondering whether the nation can have a sensible debate on student loans.

In addition, an increasingly significant item in the government accounts is subject to an uncomfortably high margin of error means that the accounts may be misleading, and the macro-economic implications of the government accounts difficult to evaluate.

In a way student loans are one of the think bigs of the 1990s. The government has gone into a massive commercial operation which may have led to a misleading government balance sheet (statement of financial position) and will probably lead to major write-offs further down the track.

Does that matter? Of course it matters in a democracy if we cannot know the true state of a particular government policy. It may also matter in the technical sense that we may have a poorly designed policy. In fact if we don’t know what the true parameters for debt write-off provisions are, it almost certainly a poorly designed policy. Moreover it is quite possible that the scheme is much more inefficient than it appears, because the write-offs are a cost of the scheme. For instance, reduced student fees may be more equitable and administratively less cumbersome to give students maintenance grants than to run the loan scheme if the true write-off rate is somewhat higher than that currently assumed. But we don’t know without a proper risk assessment.

Moreover, because the contingent asset of the student loan debt is going to be coming an increasingly important component of the government accounts, the uncertainty associated with it means that the statement of financial position will be of poor quality and misleading and the Crown Balance of net worth is probably wrong. It is no comfort this problem gets worse as we face a rising proportion of elderly, and the fiscal stress that generates. In effect the government accounts will be deceptive in regard to their ability to meeting the needs of the elderly, so the generation which had to take out student loans and which paid higher taxes as a result, will face another whammy of the public account being weaker than they were told. Think bigs come back to haunt us.

There are many conclusions this conference may come to. But one seems to me unassailable: that the Auditor-general’s call for a review of the valuation of the student loan debt should be proceeded with forthwith, preferably by an independent panel. I would advise students to take a very real interest in its deliberations.

The Model Economist: Bryan Philpott (1921-2000)

Listener 19 August, 2000

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money;

Just before he was struck down by his final illness, 79-year-old Bryan Philpott completed the last of his many research papers. It reviewed the work he done at the Research Project on Economic Planning (RPEP) over its thirty years, first as McCarthy Professor of Economics at Victoria University of Wellington, and then in retirement. The paper reflects an impressive research achievement, but also includes and was intended to include, so he told me a powerful rebuke to the economic policy of the last 15 years. To explain how, requires some preliminaries.

The scientific core of the RPEP was largely concerned with a suite of ‘computable general equilibrium’ (CGE) models and the development of the massive data bank they require. (All largely done on the smell of an oily rag, for the government cut its funding many years ago apparently out of frustration that the models would not give the policy conclusions that the government desired.) I will not go into the detail working of a CGE model, but the reader needs to know they disaggregate the economy into a number of different industries, and thereby into a number of different commodities. In contrast, the standard economists’ workhorse, used by both the crude Keynesians (whom Bryan disliked, because he had been properly trained in England by a Keynesian) and monetarists (whom he loathed even more), models only a single commodity.

It is thus not very good at dealing with substantial shocks to the economy – such as dramatic changes in pastoral prices, oil price, or the exchange rate, or a technological innovation (like finding a big gas field). Such shocks involve changes in the relative balance of production and consumption of the different commodities where the convenient one commodity assumption is almost totally useless. At that point, economists start breaking their economic model into separate commodities and industries, their ad hoc actions clumsily mirroring what the CGE models do naturally. These shocks are some of the most important ones an economy experiences. Because they happen only occasionally the single commodity workhorse usually suffices. But when a shock does occur the CGE model turns up trumps.

The second point is that scientists thinking about the future have a particular approach involving a rigorous methodological framework. In contrast politicians, journalists and non-scientific economists (a genre with which we have been over-endowed) sling together a few anecdotes and tell you what they or their employers want (you or themselves) to believe, or what fits their ideology. The scientific methodology of prediction involves as formal a model as is possible (CGE models are very formal), and the setting out clearly the various assumptions that the model requires. In particular, by changing an assumption one can explore its implications. Retrospectively one can look at a scientific forecast and, without consulting the original forecasters (who are inclined to add ad hoc assumptions to defend their mistakes), identify what when wrong with the predictions.

As it happens, Bryan did not have to identify what went wrong with his 1985 forecasts, which he recalls ‘were regarded at the time as outrageously pessimistic’, especially the unemployment forecasts. In fact by 1990 it ‘was clear that they were all too realistic’. Thus Bryan can be said to have successfully forecast the failure of the Rogernomic economic policies at the time they were implemented, despite the promises of enormous improvement by the advocates.

Rogernomes usually come back and say the economic performance would have been worse if their policies had not been adopted, although these are but anecdotal claims with no scientific underpinnings (rather like their policy analyses, actually). Bryan can reply that in 1985 he also made forecasts based on an alternative economic policy package, and they projected a better economic performance. Whereas under the rogernomes the economy grew at 1.0 percent p.a., under Bryan’s package it would have grown 1.9 percent p.a.

Bryan reports a similar outcome in 1990 for the next decade. He forecast the growth rate reasonably accurate (1.8 percent p.a, when it was 2.0 percent p.a.), while his alternative policy projected 3.4 percent p.a. The implication is that had the sort of polices which Bryan had been advocating in 1985 been implemented, the economy would be over a fifth bigger than it is today. I leave you to work out the consequences of this prosperity, but I give you a hint. The tax policies of the rogernomes gave themselves an income boost roughly equivalent to what they would have received under Bryan’s polices. But the rest of New Zealand would have experienced a similar increase, rather than taking an income cut to pay for the rogernomes’ tax cuts.

The Rogernomes’ promises for better performance under their policies were wildly out of line with actuality and with the scientific forecasts that were made at the time. Which to a scientist, anyway, suggests that their policies were deeply flawed. Moreover there was an alternative policy, and the likelihood it would have given a substantially better economic performance.

Bryan wanted me to write this column. I am sorry he is not here to read it.

********************
From Listener 19 December, 1998.

Philpott’s Principles

At the 40th birthday of BERL (Business and Economic Research Ltd, New Zealand’s oldest economic consultancy firm), Professor Bryan Philpott, one of the three founders reflected on the economic principles which have dominated his (and BERL’s) thinking.

* The need for the analysis of all significant changes to include the effects at the economy wide level.
* support for low (but not necessarily zero) tariff protection and a role for efficient import substitution industries.
* Stress on the critical, and all pervading, importance of uncertainty as to the future, and of the need to relieve this (as far as possible) by good economic forecasting and economic planning as a substitute for, or a complement to, sole reliance on the market to solve problems related to the future.
* Concern at the destabilising of possibly malign speculation in, and movement of, mobile international capital.
* Tolerance (where necessary and when optimally designed) of government intervention, regulation and control, including the control exercised by the proper integration of monetary and fiscal policy.
Who said there was no alternative?

For Better or Worse

Listener 5 August, 2000

Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy;

At the heart of much economic analysis is the belief is that it is better to have more material goods and services. The assumption underlies the economic policy objective that we should aim for higher real incomes and production because that means we can (sustainably) consume more and have more material possessions. Economists – or at least the good ones – have been aware of the importance of the assumption, but until recently they were not able to evaluate it in any scientific way. Now that we can, ‘more means better’ proves to be only marginally correct, not nearly as important as economic policy assumes.

The main evidence comes from an official US survey which asks each year whether each of the 1500 odd respondents were ‘happy’. (I take it the question is motivated by the US Declaration of Independence that among ‘certain unalienable rights’ is ‘the pursuit of happiness’.) Since the questions are asked through time (together with a whole range of other personal variables), it is possible to study the trends and associates of happiness.

The first oddity is that US citizens are no happier today than they were in 1972, when the survey began (or even back to 1946 according to older surveys). There are differences between groups. Men have been getting slightly happier and women slightly less happy. (On average men report themselves less happy than women, so gender happiness is converging.) This is an astonishing finding, given the social changes over the last three decades are generally thought favourable to women. David Blanchflower and Andrew Oswald, the authors of the paper I am mainly using, simply report their findings but (given the data limitations) are unable to shed light on why. A cynical possibility is that ‘women’s liberation’ is making women as happy as men.

Another outcome one may not have predicted, is that happiness changes over a lifetime, initially decreasing as one gets older, hitting the bottom in the thirties, and rising thereafter. Less surprising, given the findings about long-term trends, is that high incomes do not seem to generate greater happiness. While real incomes have risen since the survey began, happiness has not. There has been some dispute over this conclusion. One view is that while additional income may not make one any happier, having more income relative to the average may. If this were so, then it is relative income not absolute income which is important, and growth in material product contributes little directly to human welfare (once one has got out of poverty). However, not all those who have evaluated the data agree.

It turns out there is a very slight improvement in happiness as incomes rise. In order to quantify the effect, the authors compare the advantage of extra income to the advantage of being married, for respondents report being married is a much happier state than being widowed, separated, divorced or never married. (That is an average, of course. As Jane Austin reminds us, ‘happiness in marriage is entirely a matter of chance.’) The economists calculate being average married generates the same additional happiness as an additional income of $US 100,000 a year. These figures apply for the US, of course, but some less comprehensive European data generally supports the broad conclusions. (The annual sum capitalises to at least a $1,000,000. Look at your (average) spouse and think ‘you’re a million dollar baby.’)

The research draws identifies other economic variables over which the government has some influence, and which give a much better increase of happiness than income the more years of education the happier. It is also happier to have a job (for the same income). This last result is intriguing, for it suggests that work is valuable in itself, and that job creation may generate greater happiness, even if that reduces average incomes. I would not jump to the conclusion that make-work schemes or low paid jobs are necessarily a good thing. My reading of other studies is that such work has to be seen as socially valuable (and adequate remuneration is a signal that it is).

Encouraging people to stay on in education is also valuable in itself. The result may apply to older people returning to education too. A Swiss study found those who lived in more democratic cantons were happier than elsewhere. This suggests political devolution contributes to happiness. (Local Government New Zealand take note.)

I do not think the research implies the government should march around with a shotgun marrying everyone. But it does suggest it should not overstress stress strategies which increase average incomes. We probably need the additional production to create jobs, and relativity effects – especially when we compare ourselves overseas – may be relevant. An implicit conclusion may be that improving the quality of our consumption – a decent TV channel, arts and recreational pursuits, an attractive environment, better health care, more education, personal security, more genuine choice may all make significant contributions to the nation’s happiness.

Perhaps the research findings are too subversive to economic policy for economists to happily contemplate them.

Matter Of Opinion

Listener
22 July, 2000

Keywords Macroeconomics & Money; Statistics

The premier survey of business opinion has been produced by the NZIER since 1961. When I looked at in the 1980s, I was struck by how unhelpful the business opinion question was in comparison to the questions of what the business respondents had actually done, and what they planned to do in future. These matters were not their opinions, which may or may not be well informed. They are the actions the respondents have taken and are going to take in their business lives, on such things as investment, employment, output, and inventories.

Sadly the media focus on the NZIER business opinion question in the survey, ignoring the rest. The mistake is compounded by the National Bank introducing its own survey in 1988, which asks only businesses opinions (business confidence) and nothing about what they are actually doing. Because it is monthly it gets even more media focus than the more respectable NZIER survey.

Last June’s National Bank survey reported a big deterioration in business confidence. A net 60 percent of the sample said they expected business conditions to deteriorate in the next year. This contrasts with almost all forecasters, who expect the economy to grow, albeit more slowly than it did recently. (However, if businesses panic, the opinion could be self-fulfilling, and forecasters may lower their expectations.)

What we do not know from the National Bank Survey, because they do not ask is whether businesses cutting back on their plans for investment, employment, production, and stocks. In the past, we have had businesses with opinions of the economy contradicting with what they were doing themselves. So we cannot be sure what is going on. There are a number of possibilities.

The most likely one is that New Zealand businesses are reflecting a general sentiment in the world, that prospects for the world economy need to be lowered. Among the reasons are the steady hikes in US interest rates, plus the increasing realisation that world share prices reflect irrational exuberance rather than any realistic assessment of the fundamentals. The chief evidence for this view is that other countries are experiencing reductions in business confidence too.

At the other extreme is the view that the situation is peculiar to New Zealand, and reflects a loss of faith of the business community in the current government. The Right tells us that the government is doing various wicked things to the business sector: the Left tells us it is businesses punishing the electorate for preferring a government which is not subservient to business interests. The first theory seems to be irrational, for the government policy changes have only been minor and malevolent only to the thinking of those who are so ideologically committed they view the last fifteen years as a great economic success. (For instance the ACC reforms take us back to where we were a year ago, when confidence was much higher; the employment reforms are hardly radical in international terms.) The second implies that the political judgement of businesses is as shallow as it appears on the business pages.

A variation is that it is not the government but the Reserve Bank who has got it wrong. It is raising interest rates, so the critics say, when the economy is slowing down. This reinforces the downswing, so things will get a lot worse. This column has argued that it is not the technical competence of the Reserve Bank which is at fault, but its underlying theoretical basis (which, alas, will not be addressed by the review later this year). Basically monetary policy is muddled in that the government, the Bank, the financial sector, and reality all have different views of what is happening.

A third possibility is the economy is undergoing a structural twist in which the tradeable sector, stimulated by the lower exchange rate, is expanding, at the expense of the non-tradeable sector. (If so, this may be government’s intention, because any addressing of the danger in our huge current account deficit requires such a twist.) Business opinion surveys are biased towards the non-tradeable sector, for they excluded exporters such as farmers, while those that are included are large firms who get only the same weight as small businesses in the non-tradeable sector.

A fourth possibility is that businesses have at last taken a hard look at the economy’s performance over the last fifteen years, and come to the realisation that it has been poor – possibly the worst in the OECD (outside some east-central Europeans). They have switched from an irrational exuberance about our prospects to rational realism, although they may have over-reacted.

I cannot tell the proportion of each the relevance of each of these explanations. Even the more sophisticated NZIER survey is not detailed enough to evaluate that. I do know there were major collapses in business confidence in 1967, 1970/1, 1974, 1978/9, 1981/2, 1984/5, 1991, and 1994, according to the NZIER survey. The current slide began about mid 1999 (following a minor slide in early 1998). I am not saying all of these were the same as the current one, or even of similar magnitude. But one can say with confidence these things happen (more often than not in the first year of the election triennium).

Metrology and the Economy (lecture)

Paper to the National Measurement Conference, 14 July, 2000.

Keywords Business & Finance

In October, the Mars Climate Orbiter spacecraft burnt up in the Martian atmosphere because the acceleration data for controlling its thrusters had been provided in pounds of force (US customary units) but entered into the space craft’s computer as newtons (the SI unit). Little information was obtained from the trip, so most of its $US240 million was a complete waste. This is a spectacular example of how measurement failure can be costly, but in some ways it is misleading. The costs of a failure to have a sound measurement system are generally more subtle than that, as are the benefits. In total, a system failure from an inefficient measurement system may be relatively more expensive than the loss of a single spacecraft.

Measurement Systems as Economic Infrastructure

In recent years economists have become aware of the crucial role that the commercial infrastructure plays in an economy. We all understand how poor roading and other transport links, or poor telecommunications, directly adds to business costs. But the intangible infrastructure plays an important role too. Without a sound system of commercial law and effective means of legal enforcement private commercial transactions become clumsy, expensive to transact, and difficult to obtain redress. These do not only add costs to business, but they also discourage entrepreneurs from seeking new opportunities which benefit consumers. Economies with high transaction costs are inefficient, whether those costs arise from inefficient transport systems or inefficient legal systems.

Another part of the intangible infrastructure, which can add or subtract to transaction costs, is the national system of measurement. Suppose there was not one. Then businesses involved in any transaction which involved measurement would have to spend time (and so money) agreeing on some common standard. (Imagine the complication for a business if each business it traded with required a different common standard.) Or suppose each supermarket had its own weights and measures. Consumers would be unable to judge the relative prices in the various chains, and so the competitive system, which drives better quality at lower prices, would be less effective.

What would happen is that there would develop a system (or systems) of private measurement, so that two businesses trading together or consumers when purchasing would use the common standard it set. Hopefully there would be only one system, in which case it would be a monopoly. Moreover in an era of increasing international trade it would have to connect with similar systems overseas. There are gains from a single international system of measurement.

In practice the international and national system have to be government ones, or at least heavily regulated b the government. To see this, consider the many transactions where measurement is important and in which the government is involved – for example excise duties on alcohol and tobacco. The statute which sets the involvement – in this case that which sets the excise duty rates – requires authoritative government set measurement standards. Otherwise the private transactor could manipulate the measurement in its own interests. A similar issue arises in international trade. If two countries do not have a common measurement standard (or a means of linking them) trade negotiations would quickly become very complicated.

Such issues have become more acute with the increasing complexity of the modern economy. This means greater anonymity between transactors, and an increasing use of technology. Today, economic transactions (trading) typically occur between people or agencies who are not well known to one another, so that the accuracy that fairness and confidence in trade requires becomes important. Often the transaction is one-off with the transactors never trading together again (as when a traveller purchases petrol from a service station in an otherwise unvisited location), but even where the transaction is repeated (the regular visit to a supermarket, say) there is normally some personal distance between those involved.

Where the technology is simple, exact measurement may not be required. Conversely as it becomes more complex, measurement accuracy becomes more significant. Consider the precision required for the hardware of modern informational technology.

Note that while measurement is often discussed in terms of length and mass, this applies to many other areas including the requirement of a nationally determined calendar and clock. Some economists would argue that the goal of price stability is equally a matter of having a constant reliable and authoritative standard of value. For a transaction to occur smoothly, the seller, receiving money for the goods or service, needs to be confident of the value of the cash received or the reliability of the credit offered. Thus, there has developed a sophisticated monetary system, even at the retail end where there is an officially guaranteed money (supported by measures to eliminate counterfeiting), together with private provisions such as banks, international credit card agencies, and credit advice agencies. One of the functions of money is, of course, as a measure of value.

A national system of measurement is not static. As technology becomes more sophisticated, precision becomes increasingly necessary, and so therefore must the common standard. As measurement extends into other technological areas, common standards must follow.

The significance of accurate measurement is well illustrated by considering transactions where it is not possible. When purchasing a mattress, say, the buyer can be sure of its size to fit the bed frame. However, on the crucial matter of the degree of hardness and softness (recall a person will spend about a third of their life lying on mattresses), there is no agreed quantitative standards. As a result the purchasing process for a mattress can be much more complicated than for a bedframe. Or consider the measurement system becomes unstable changing over time so that inter-period comparisons are difficult. A good example of this is the fierce inflation which New Zealand experienced in the two decades after 1966, when prices rises were sometimes averaging one percent a month, and were irregular so it became hard to compare infrequent purchases. The usefulness of money as measure of value was reduced.

It would, however, be wrong to confine the importance of measurement only to economic transactions. When a couple of friends agree to meet at a certain time, they are dependent upon a national convention on how to measure time. Amateur sport, indeed much recreational activity, often requires precise measurement.

In summary, good standard measures underpin much of modern human endeavour. Where they do not exist (usually because they cannot) the transactions of economic and social life may be more cumbersome. A universal standard measure can simplify those transactions adding to the efficiency of economic activities and the quality of human life.

Measuring the Measurement System

Thus far I have argued the value of a sound comprehensive measurement system in qualitative terms. Ironically it is difficult to quantify its value, as is true for other elements of the commercial infrastructure. However there are some quantitative measures which give an indication of the importance of the measurement system.

It is estimated that total trade measurement transactions in Australia – commercial transactions requiring explicit measuring – amounted to $A320b.[1] It is tempting to compare this total with Australian GDP of around $A480b, but the measurement transactions include those which occur throughout the chain of production and distribution, and so the same item (in various stages of processing) may be measured up to seven times. An intriguing conclusion of the study was that only a fifth of the total involved final consumer transactions, so that is four fifths were between businesses or businesses and government. While the public may see the problem as the butcher with unreliable scales, measurement issues are far more pervasive.

One method of quantifying the system is to estimate the amount of resources being used in the economic activity of measurement. This is sometimes called a cost estimate, although that may be misleading because cost is generally seen as a penalty, so the measure does not indicate the benefits of metrology to the economy, since the resources are incurred because their benefits are thought to exceed their costs.

T.J. Quinn reports that ‘measurement and measurement-related operations are estimated to account for between 3 percent and 6 percent of the GDP of industrialised nations.’[2] If, as seems likely, the range also applies to New Zealand, then in 1999 the country would be spending between $3b and $6b on measurement and measurement related operations. Although the comparisons are not quite valid, similar size industries include tourism (a 3.4 percent contribution to GDP), agriculture (5.6 percent), construction (3.6 percent) and communications (3.0 percent).

Because there is no measure of net output, it is not possible to accurately estimate the amount of labour the measurement activity uses. But suppose net output is about half gross output, a not uncommon ratio in New Zealand industrial activity. That suggests that measurement activity employs the equivalent of around 26,000 to 52,000 full time workers (say 1 to 2 million hours per week). This, of course, is not the number of workers actually involved in the activity, since most of those who are spend only part of their time directly measuring. The number involved at some time in their working day is far larger.

One further indicator of the economic significance of measurement was that between 1970 and 1976 New Zealand, like some other countries at around this time, went through a process of metrication whereby the traditional ‘imperial system’ was replaced by the ‘international’ (or metric) system of weights and measures. The seven-year timetable was to reduce the cost of the transformation. There seems to be no estimate of the total cost of the change. Even so, one is unlikely to include the discomfort to individuals of changing the measurement system they grew up with, and some older people still have difficulty with the new-fangled measures (often not having an intuitive feel about their magnitude). One might justify the change by arguing that the metric system is intrinsically simpler and more efficient than the imperial system but, instructively, the justification for the decision to change ‘was based almost entirely on the necessity to keep in steps with overseas trading partners.’[3] It was international rather than domestic commerce which forced the requirement on New Zealand.

In summary, there is no doubt that the measurement activity is of considerable economic significance, whether it be assessed by:
– that which takes place at the individual work place, or
– by the value or equivalent employment in New Zealand output, or
– by the nation’s willingness to disrupt habits of a millennia to convert to a better system of measurement.

Compliance Issues

However no matter how valuable a national (and international) measurement system is, the economist is always worried about whether compliance costs – the costs of being required to comply with measurement standards set by the state – over-costly.

Firms value their reputation and even set measurement standards at a higher level than the statutory minimum. This involves costs. On the other hand failure involves costs too. It is not just a matter of a prosecution and the damage that could do to the business’s reputation among consumers. Consider the situation of a supermarket in an environment where there were no standards. Shoppers would be distrustful of the measure of their purchases, and likely to complain. The complaints would take up the shop’s time, and not be easily resolved. In contrast, one supermarket manager told me that he had but two complaints about weights and measures in three years. Each involved a person whose home scales proved inaccurate. The Trading Standards Service receives only a few hundred complaints a year – fewer than the transactions a single household might make in a fortnight. Only a fraction is substantiated. People trust the existing system.

The point of this counterfactual alternative is that it does not at all follow that were there no measurement infrastructure, transaction costs would be less. Arguably they would be more. That is the danger of quoting the 3 to 6 percent of GDP figure as the costs of measurement activity to the economy. The reality is that without incurring those costs there would be even more economic resources involved in the related activities of self-compliance, searching and litigation.

It is true that government regulation of measurement requirements can impose costs on businesses. Government policy is to minimise these compliance costs, although care has to be taken in doing so they do not raise transaction costs elsewhere. I have not come across any example of businesses considering metrological compliance requirements to be excessive. To the contrary, some supermarket chains require a higher standard than the law requires, which suggests they do not think the regulations are onerous. Even so, government policy needs to be conscious of compliance costs when reviewing or extending the regulatory framework. Ultimately, excessive compliance requirements are a burden on the efficiency of the economy, and raise prices to consumers.

The Public Understanding

While I have seen no survey, my impression is that the broad understanding of the public is that somewhere or other there is something or other which ensures that the products they buy are subject to accurate weights and measures. Their confidence is such that they rarely bother to test this belief. That supermarkets have few weights and measures complaints suggests that most of its customers do not check the weight of what they buy (for a high proportion of them must have inaccurate scales, and yet they do not complain).

Is this all the general public need to know? Perhaps having a vague confidence in the system is sufficient if they were only shoppers. However as workers, people are actively involved in measurement as a part of their jobs. There is an increasing recognition that for a worker to carry out a task properly (as is required by total quality management – TQM), he or she needs a thorough background in the fundamentals of their worktasks, and not just in its operational routines. Moreover, they meet measurement problems in their everyday non-commercial life. This suggests a need for a public understanding of metrology somewhat higher than merely having confidence there is a government backed measurement system.

There is also a wider public policy issue. While it is common to see measurement issues as being primarily of consumer interest, and only secondarily production matters issues (although the Australian evidence suggests the balance is the other way around), there is also the matter of international trade (the reason for the metrication upheaval). More insidiously, measurement criteria have been used as a non-tariff barrier to foreign competition.

Probably the most important long-term strategy is to ensure an integral part of the core curriculum of the education system includes a basing in measurement issues. Historically, students got some training in their mathematics, general science, home science or handicrafts courses. But not all students now do these, and one wonders whether in any case there was sufficient for an understanding of the increasingly sophisticated issues where metrology touches everyday life. (For instance, the increasingly inherent problem of measurement error in medical diagnosis – summarised in the notions of false positive and false negative.) Additionally, teachers of specialist subjects need to include in the performance checklist whether the course has adequately covered its measurement issues. If this sounds mundane, the history of metrology has some spectacular illustrations of its importance. A student doing advanced secondary school physics should revel in the metrology of the discovery of relativity; a cooking class has the opportunity to discuss the consequences of failures in recipe specification and interpretation; measurement in sport provides some examples, with riveting videos to illustrate them.

Issues for Further Consideration

1. Should the remit of the Trade Measurement Unit in the Trading Standards Services of the Ministry of Consumer Affairs explicitly recognise metrology’s importance to the external sector of the economy?

2. Should the government should review whether its role in the International Organisation for Legal Metrology (OIML) should be upgraded from corresponding to full membership, given the increasing importance of metrology in food, health, and environmental issues (and their impacts on key elements of New Zealand international trade)?

3. While there is no evidence of an unnecessary burden of compliance in regard to metrological issues is onerous, should the Trading Standards Service explicitly acknowledge that one of its functions is to reduce compliance costs, providing they do not add to transaction costs elsewhere in the economy?

4. Is there a need for raising public awareness of measurement issues in the long run? The program could include:
– ensuring that key formers of public opinion are aware of metrological issues;
– using news events which involve measurement issues to provide a background of the wider issues;
– ensuring there is adequate coverage of measurement issues in the core primary and secondary curriculum;
– expecting all specialist courses at secondary and tertiary (including vocational) levels to cover systematically the relevant metrological issues of the subject;
– approaching NZQA to assist in attaining the previous two objectives;
– providing the public with material to assist with these objectives.

Conclusions: New Directions in Metrology – The Economists’ Perspective

Transaction costs have been described as the friction in the economic system. Because of these costs the system operates less efficiently than it would in a world without transaction costs. One of the functions of government policy is to reduce that friction, to – in effect – put some oil into the machinery so it runs more smoothly.

Measurement is one of the sources of transaction costs. The metrological infrastructure is a means of reducing those costs, of putting some oil into the system to reduce the friction that would arise from inaccuracy and inconsistency of measurements. It is not possible to evaluate the contribution of the engineer which supplies the lubricating oil, nor the oil itself. Clearly, the contribution is not the same thing as the cost. Rather, we can imagine what would happen were there no lubrication. At best the machinery might come to a grinding halt. The users would hurry to find some oil, but because it was not designed for the particular use and because they were not trained in its application, the machine would still function poorly.

Metrologists are among those who design and apply some of the lubricating oils for the economic system, and ensure that it is applied as effectively as possible. Their value, like that of the engineers with machinery oil, is incalculable. But nonetheless, the value of a properly organised system of international measurement is palpable.

Endnotes
1. Committee of Inquiry into Australia’s Standards and Conformance Infrastructure (1995).
2. Quinn (1994).
3. The quotation comes from NZOYB (1982:854). (Despite the claim of efficiency of the metric system, we should acknowledge the linguistic merit of our forefathers’ simpler ‘pounds’, ‘feet’, and ‘miles’.)

Unchanging Fashion: Pete Seeger’s Journey Of the Spirit

Music in the Air, No 10, Winter 2000, p.6-9.

Keywords: Literature and Culture;

Looking back over eighty years of life, as Pete Seeger may well have done in May 1999, one seeks patterns and consistencies. There is the big pattern, of course, the living the eighty years, and the consistency of having been a professional folk singer for the last sixty, with his father, Charles, as a collector of folk songs before that. From the songs he wrote and sang, one might see Seeger’s life as a jumble of topics and engagements, held together by an enthusiasm for singing, considerable technical musical skills, and an involvement in radical causes.

Indeed, Seeger has been involved in so many social movements that at first they seem a jumble. Initially it was with the Almanac Singers (which at various times included Woody Guthrie, Beth Lomax, Lee Hayes with a commitment to the union movement reflected in such songs as ‘Talking Union’, ‘The Union Maid’, ‘We Shall Not Be Moved’, and ‘Solidarity For Ever’. That was the early 1940s, with the New Deal transforming post-depression America. But soon the need to organise workers into unions was replaced by the need for war songs to defeat fascism. After the war it was back to union organisation, campaigning for Progressive Party Presidential candidate, Henry Wallace, in 1948, and supporting Paul Robeson, whose pro-Soviet connections plus colour had him blacklisted and pelted by racists. Then it was the Weavers with their record-breaking ‘Goodnight Irene ” written by black ex-convict Huddie Leadbetter, although ‘If I Had a Hammer’, ‘Kisses Sweeter Than Wine’, and ‘So Long It’s Been Good to Know You ” are better remembered today. All this time Seeger was also singing, and collecting, traditional American folk, and foreign, songs, such as ‘Tzena, Tzena’ from Israel, the flip side of ‘Goodnight Irene’ , and ‘Wimoweh ‘ from South Africa.

From his teenage years in the 1930s, Seeger was a member of the American Communist Party. One of the major sources on his activities are released FBI files, which sometimes give the impression of surveillance by the Keystone Cops. By the middle of 1951 the FBI operation became more sinister -for example. providing information to others so concerts were cancelled, and publishing critical articles.

The Korean War was in full swing. and McCarthyism building up. The Weavers collapsed. Following a blacklisting, Seeger’s singing became a sort of guerrilla warfare. where he would sing for a (modest) fee at a venue and escape, before the anti-communists had time to enforce the ban. By 1955 he was in front of the House Un-American Activities Committee of the US Congress, described by ex-President Harry Truman a.” ‘more un-American than the activities it is investigating ‘.

Perhaps inevitably, given the courageous way he faced up to the committee, the Lower House of Congress cited him for contempt (with seven others including playwright Arthur Miller). He was found guilty in 1961 and jailed for ten years. The New York Post reported: ‘Dangerous Minstrel Nabbed Here: Amid our larger tribulations, the Justice Department has moved fearlessly and decisively against ballad singer Pete Seeger… That the combined powers of the House Committee and the Justice Department should be rallied to imprison him is bitter burlesque. Some jails will be a more joyous place if he lands there, and things will be bleaker on the outside.’ We can laugh today, but it was not much fun for Pete Seeger, his family and friends. Fortunately, there was an ,appeal, bail, and the US Court of Appeal dismissed his case in 1962, ending the decade of anxiety. (He managed to join the 1961 Easter Peace March in Washington between trial and sentencing.) Yet in these troubled times Seeger wrote ‘Where Have All the Flowers Gone?’, led the revival of interest in American folk music, and was a symbol for those with a civil liberties bent. But this revival was also a valuable-in-its-own-right exercise of saving a heritage before the older singers and their songs died forever. Seeger was a key player in the recording and publishing company Folkways (founded in 1948), which has done so much to preserve and promote traditional folk music, and the new topical songs of the 1960s.

While he was nurturing young singers and recovering old music, a new wave was sweeping America, the civil rights movement. The recording of the Carnegie Hall Concert in June 1963 nicely portrays Seeger’s style (1). The record begins with ‘If You Miss Me at the Back of the Bus’, recalling Rosa Park’s famous sit-down, followed by the black spiritual ‘Keep Your Eyes on the Prize (Hold On}’, and a couple of civil rights songs, ‘I Ain’t Scared of Your Jail’, and ‘Oh, Freedom!’ Now the segue to ‘What Did You Learn in School Today?’, telling how the white middle class learned their racism in their social institutions. On to ‘Little Boxes’ on social conformity, to ‘Who Killed Norma Jean?’, on the public pressures on private lives, finally on Side One, ‘Who Killed Davey Moore?'(the boxer).

Side Two opens with’ A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall’, reputedly Bob Dylan’s response to the Cuba missile crisis, with the first line of every song he was never going to write if the damned things were launched, followed by a quick children’s song to rest the voice, then ‘Guantanamera’, the words written by a Jose Marti, a nineteenth century Cuban freedom fighter, followed by ‘Tshotsholosa’ an African song. The song ends on a triumphant ‘We Shall Overcome’ joined by the audience. All this when he was still blacklisted from television, including a programme called ‘Hootenanny’a gathering at which folk singers entertain, often with the audience joining in – a word which he had introduced into the English-American vocabulary.

There is a seduction of the audience going on here. The audience may have arrived passionate about black rights, but other causes are posed as related. Thus the themes of campaigning against nuclear weapons and the US treatment of Cuba get woven into the Civil Rights story.

A few years later Seeger is front stage for the Vietnam War protest movement.

In 1967 his ‘Waist Deep in the Big Muddy’ was a hit on the college circuit. Superficially, it is a soldier’s story, of a captain leading a platoon across a river which gets progressively deeper and more dangerous, ‘But the big fool said to push on.’ Eventually the captain disappears into quicksand, the platoon pulls back, and discover that, for all his confidence, the captain had misunderstood the terrain. But the audience knew it was a song about President Johnson leading the nation into the Vietnam morass. So did the media executives, and they banned it. What should have been a mass hit was stifled by censorship. (In 1991 I recycled the song in a Listener column to describe what the Rogernomes were doing to the New Zealand economy.)

Although Seeger does not always write great lyrics, he has an extraordinary ability to find others’ texts and put them to music. His co-writers include the Almanac Singers, the Bible, Alex Comfort, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Jose Marti, Matt McGinn, Malvina Reynolds, and William Shakespeare, sources indicating the breadth of material, embracing international and national, past and present, writers.

‘My Name is Lisa Kalvelage’ is an almost verbatim version of the statement of a woman arrested on a peace protest against napalm bombs. She had been born in Nuremberg, and as a GI bride wanting to enter America, was closely examined about her involvement in Hitler’s regime. This questioning, and the trials of her birth city, gave her an understanding of, and commitment to, the principles of personal responsibility, which, twenty years later, she applied in California, to be arrested for doing so. The words are so dignified, so apt, so moving, they are blazed on my conscience, yet I cannot recall the music, so beautifully subdued and supporting is the background guitar.

The song finishes up in the air, with the words of the final verse:

The events of May 25th, the day of our protest,
Put a small balance weight on the other side.
Hopefully, someday, my contribution to peace
Will help just a bit to turn the tide.
And perhaps I can tell my children six
And later on their own children
That at least in the future they need not be silent
When they are asked, ‘Where was your mother, when?’

leaving the audience to ponder their personal ‘when’. Seeger uses the same ending style for his standard presentation of ‘Where Have All The Flowers Gone?’, terminating abruptly at the finish of the third verse. The audience knows the circularity of the song.

Seeger’s musical skills are that of a melodist and instrumentalist, a fine one at that, who has written books on how to play the guitar, the 12 string guitar, the banjo, and even on the steelpan drums of Trinidad (2), Rescuing the banjo from its joke reputation as being something black minstrels played, to a respectable and complex musical instrument (it is his favourite) has meant that it can now contribute to a symphony orchestra, as occurred in a New Zealand Symphony Orchestra concert in 1999 (3).

From one perspective Seeger resisted modernisation. He had a key role at the 1965 Newport Folk Festival in which Bob Dylan moved into ‘electric rock’, leaving the traditional folksinger’s path. (Before then some had seen Dylan as the next Pete Seeger.) Deeply shocked by what many saw as a betrayal, Seeger nevertheless gathered the players together for the finale. But he withdrew from public involvement shortly after for a period. He never joined the movement to electric rock and beyond in his own performances. The times may have been a-changing, and he continued to develop techniques and write new songs often based on old melodies. But keeping to his craft, he allowed others to develop theirs. A recent double CD, Where Have All the Flowers Gone? (Appleseed Music, 1998), has a host of folk singers, each performing a Seeger song, and some of them using post-1960 folk musical arrangements.

Like many other loving musical fathers, there are a host of children’s songs in his opus/repertoire. One of my favourites comes from a Russian child’s painting on which he wrote, ‘May there always be sunshine, may there always be blue skies, may there always be mummy, may there always be me’.

Later, environmental songs are added. He sings passionately and movingly about the Hudson River on which he lives and sails, and which became polluted. Enjoy ‘Sailing Down My Dirty Stream’, an ironic comment on his earlier ‘Sailing Down This Golden River’.

Any complete record of Seeger ‘s achievements must also include mention of his efforts to preserve, publish and promote folk music. He still retains an active role with Sing Out! (4) , reflecting a host of earlier efforts to keep folk music alive and popular.

Slowly, but surely, he became accepted as part of America, even to the point that recently President Clinton honoured him. It has been a long journey from the days when he was considered so subversive that the mainstream media would not touch him.

What about Seeger’s spirituality? He does not seem to have been a regular churchgoer, although he came from a religious family, made use of church folk music and spirituals, and willingly sang in churches. Probably the most famous version of the well-known passage of Ecclesiastes is Seeger’s ‘Turn! Turn! Turn! (To Everything There is a Season)’.

Nevertheless I was struck by the spirit of his most recent CD, Pete (Living Music Records, 1997), in which he explores yet another issue: how to think about aging, and the end of human life. Death is perhaps the greatest challenge. Many people, even today, avoid its apparent finality by claims of an afterlife, although the proportion of the religious who make no such claims appears to be rising. Most humanists reject the possibility. Those that believe in the traditional afterlife have a simple explanation of why we are here. The rest do not, and yet as they get older they are faced with questions of the purpose of life and the meaning of death, while rejecting the answers from traditional religion. It requires considerable courage to face honestly the old questions without the old answers. Even for a humanist the answers appear to involve spirituality, a spirituality often related to music. It is almost as if the bits of the brain that deal with them are the same or close together. It is easy to see in Bach, say, a religious conviction in music rising out of a religious commitment in life, but Beethoven’s music and life challenge any direct connection, while enchancing the bond between music and spirituality. So does Seeger’s.

Seeger gives no direct indication of a belief in an afterlife: the final song in Pete is pointedly ‘To My Old Brown Earth’:

To my old brown earth
And to my old blue sky
I’ll now give these last few molecules of ‘I’
(5)

Instead, the songs on the CD celebrate a person’s life, friendships, and ideals. The penultimate contribution is a banjo version of Beethoven’s ‘Ode to Joy’, which is cheeky in one way, but in another shows the ability of a banjo, in Seeger’s hands, to play serious classical music. It also links Seeger’s philosophy to Beethoven’s and Schiller’s.

It is always instructive how a good song written for a specific occasion can be transformed to an apparently universal one. In the late 1960s Seeger was asked to write a song for Otto Preminger’s film Tell Me That You Love Me Junie Moon, which was about three severely disabled people living together, illustrating the capacity of people with disabilities to celebrate life. In Pete, a quarter of a century later, ‘Old Devil Time’ takes on a new meaning:

Old devil time, I’m goin’ to fool you now!
Old devil time, you’d like to bring me down!
When I’m feeling low, my lovers gather ’round
And help me rise to fight you one more time!

It would be easy to accuse Seeger of just being a stirrer, who hopped on to every fashionable bandwagon that passed. One could even argue the Communist Party engagement of the 1930s and 1940s was one of the earliest examples, for many people joined then because it seemed the thing to do. But to view Seeger’s life as a series of five year stints in fashionable radical causes is to miss its coherence.

In 1962, when he was 43, Seeger wrote’ Sailing Down My Golden River’ , a song of a child, or someone recalling childhood, involving messing about in a boat in a local estuary or complex of creeks:

Sailing down my golden river
Sun and water all my own
Yet I was never alone…
Sun and water, old life-givers
I’ll have them where’ er I roam
And I was not far from home.

By the time it is being sung by a man in his seventies in the album Pete, it is a statement of someone who has travelled far, done many things, for many causes, and yet was never far from the home of his beliefs. That is a more useful way to think about Seeger’s life. Each radical cause became an opportunity for him to express decency, humanity and the possibility of progress. He did so actively, leading a host of musical and social movements, and leaving a whole lot of great music, which will remain with humankind, as long as it sings.

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I was asked to nominate my Ten Favourite Songs that Pete Seeger is associated with:
The Bells of Rhymney
Declaration of Independence
Guantanamera .
How Can I Keep from Singing?
If I Had a Hammer
John Henry
Kisses Sweeter than Wine
May There Always be Sunshine
My Name is Lisa Kalvelage
Oh Freedom!
Old Devil Time
Peatbog Soldiers
Quite Early One Morning
Sailing Down this Golden River
Sailing Down my Dirty Stream
Seek and You Shall Find
Solidarity Forever
Talking Union
This Land is Your Land
Those Three are on My Mind
Turn! Turn! Turn! (To Everything There is a Season)
Union Maid
Waist Deep in the Big Muddy
We Shall Not Be Moved
We Shall Overcome
Where Have All the Flowers Gone?
Wimoweh

(OK. So Pete Seeger is such a big man, his ten is larger than most.)

Notes/Biblography /Discography
(1) The concert recording is We Shall Overcome: Pete Seeger Recorded Live at His Historic Carnegie Hall Concert, June 8, 1963, Columbia Records, Monaural BP 473073.
(2) Steel Drums: How to Play Them and Make Them, instruction manual by Pete Seeger, an Oak Publication, 1964.
(3) ‘Promenade Overture’ by John Corigliano, played by the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra in 1999.
(4) Sing Out!,founded in 1950, the New York based bimonthly magazine, published by Folkways, covering the entire North American traditional music scene as well as the contemporary urban scene, and described by one of the founding editors, Alan Senauke, , as an alternative to the predigested sounds of pop music, bought and sold by giant record companies and slippery-tongued promoters’.
(5) ‘To My Old Brown Earth ” words and music by Pete Seeger ( 1958), copyright renewed, 1964, by Storrnking Music Inc.

The Incompleat Folksinger , Simon and Schuster, 1976, is the earlier autobiography, and includes very extensive coverage of the singer’s own songs and traditional songs. A later autobiographical work, Where Have All the Flowers Gone?, Sing Out Publications, 1993, is described on the Seeger website as ‘absolutely THE definitive book by and about Pete Seeger for those who admire him and love his music’. This text seems to be out of print. The adventurous enquirer can contact Sing Out Publications, P. O. Box 5253, Bethlehem PA 180150253.

How Can I Keep From Singing? By David King Dunaway, McGraw-Hill, 1981, is the major biography.
http:/ /ourworld.compuserve .com/homepages/ JirnCapaldi/index.htm>The Pete Seeger Appreciation website contains an almost complete discography, a list of songs he has written, some with their words, and a list of books by and about Pete Seeger.

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Budget Philosophies

Listener 8 July, 2000.

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;

Just as nostalgia aint what it use to be, neither are government budget presentations. Once they were given in the evening when financial markets were closed, and were filled with surprises such as excise tax increases. Today, the budget is presented in the afternoon, there are few surprises (tax increases are announced at other times). The reduction in significance may be no bad thing. But the media still treats the budget as one of the great political events of the year. A few days later the news returns to normal, and the dispassionate observer wonders what it was all about.

What is disappointing is that for this year’s budget, like previous ones, the government has not take the opportunity to set down its economic philosophy. That may reflect the essential pragmatism of the politics in New Zealand, perhaps compounded by the inherent difficulties of a coalition government agreeing on such philosophical issues.

One can see some new directions. The approach, which began a decade ago, of continually reducing government expenditure has been abandoned. I am not sure what past governments thought they were doing, but the outcome has been a public service which was becoming dysfunctional, and a grumpy electorate which wanted more public spending on things it valued: arts and culture, education, the environment, health, and so on. National realised this in for health spending, after its ill informed reforms of the early 1990s did not produced the productivity increases that were promised by the well-paid consultants and officials. But, as the incoming government found, many other activities were dying from the tourniquet of spending cuts. Had National been returned it too would have had to bale out the Symphony Orchestra (which had funding only till last May) and a raft of other public agencies in as dire circumstances. Meanwhile mental health and other areas desperately needed extra funds, if they were to do what the electorate wanted from them.

The ‘closing the gaps’ initiative is more peculiar to this government. I am not sure what it means. Certainly the Maori and Pacific Islanders are worse off than on average on many social indicators, but it is not clear how the announced package will markedly reduce the inequality. The consequences of the last 160 years are not going to be reversed overnight. The package may not even be the most effective way to spend the money. After fifteen years of ignoring equity in economic policy, we now are without the intellectual capacity among the government’s advisers to tackle issues such as reducing inequality and poverty. Instead, the government responds to those who shout loudest. They may not be the most deserving. A number of spending decisions in the last six months, justified in terms of social equity, are almost certainly a waste compared to more directed policies.

Probably the single most practical way of reducing inequality is to create sustainable jobs. The issue was hardly addressed in the budget, perhaps because of the shambles in Work and Income New Zealand. Until that is resolved, and it will not be easy to do so, both the taxpayer and the unemployed will suffer. In the longer run job creation is about macroeconomic performance, a topic on which the budget was almost completely silent (except for the forecasts). The indicators are that this government is fiscally conservative, running a substantial budget surplus in good years. But compared to predecessor governments it may give a greater emphasis on growth through tradeable sector expansion (especially exports). Given the nation’s vulnerability to external shocks when the external deficit is so large, we should not be surprised.

This government is probably going to be more interventionist at the microeconomic level. There is to be substantially more spending on industrial and regional assistance, although neither I – nor, I suspect, the government – knows the details of how it is to be spent. Effectively allocated the spending could be beneficial, but like the spending on reducing inequality, much could be wasted.

The political story of the budget may be the uneasy relationship the government has with business. Admittedly previous governments were far too sensitive to business demands, no matter how unreasonable they were. Like spoilt children some businesses and their acolytes seem to have been angry that the electorate has indicated it wants a more even hand. At one stage, though, the new government’s seemed to go to the other extreme. In any case under MMP it cannot blitzkrieg through legislation without consultation, as the previous government did with the Employment Contracts Act.

What is needed is an economic (and political) philosophy which assures the business community that it has an integral role in the government’s account of how the economy works. Even if the government rebalances the economy towards a modestly larger public sector, as the electorate seems to want, the majority of goods New Zealanders consume, the jobs which employ them, plus almost all foreign exchange earnings will still come from the business sector.

Thus the lack of a comprehensive philosophy was the serious lacuna in the budget. Until the government expounds one, its economic policies will look as fragile as some of its critics claim.

The Economic Status and Health Status Project

By Suzie Carson & Brian Easton

New Zealand Journal of Social Policy December 2000, p.121-128. Based on a paper presented to the 1999 Conference of the New Zealand Statistical Association, Wellington, July 5-7.

Executive Summary

The increasing use of the Household Economic Survey for policy purposes raises issues about the assumptions which are used for transforming the unit records into aggregates which underpin the social policy analysis. This paper reports upon an HRC funded project to investigate the relationship between personal health status and economic status (especially location in the household distribution, but also in relation to other measures). The project uses unit records of the Household Economic Survey for 1994/5-6/7 years when personal health status was recorded, using both objective and subjective measures. The paper explores some of the processing issues which the analysis is addressing.

Introduction(1)

In the past research has been limited by access to the data base, which has been at either a high level of aggregation or the processing has been based on predetermined assumptions, without much opportunity to interact with the data to improve the estimates.(2) As a result a number of problems with the method have hardly been addressed. A research grant from the Health Research Council is funding extensive use of the Statistics New Zealand Data Laboratory (SNZDL) and so give the researchers direct access to HES data.(3) This offers the opportunity to deal with some of the past assumptions.

The Standard Model(4)

The HES collects a variety of information on household status and economic activity, including household composition and before-tax market plus benefit incomes. Each record contains both household-wide information (such as household spending and housing status), and individual information on each member of the household such as personal characteristics and income received (which can be aggregated up to household characteristics). Access to the SNZDL means that the project will be able to work with both sets of records.

The processing occurs as follows:

(1) The after tax (or disposable) income for each household can be calculated by applying known tax and abatement rates to individual records, and aggregating.

(2) Household needs vary with household composition, including the number in the household, and their ages. Aggregate household income is scaled to reflect this composition. Rather than use a simple per capita measure, a household equivalence index allows for economies of scale and the lower relative needs of children.

(3) The resulting ratio is called “household equivalent income” (HEI). The households are ranked in order of their HEI, and either divided into quantiles or partitioned by a poverty line (or lines).

The resulting estimates have been widely used. They are the primary data base for the debate on whether poverty has increased or decreased, and for the current discussion on income shares, which acknowledges that while the top decile has experienced a rise in its standard of living over the last fifteen years, the bottom eight deciles have not.(5)

Some Statistical Issues

Various conceptual issues complicate the standard model, including to what extent income is a measure of welfare? There is also a debate about the correct poverty line. Here we focus on the statistical ones and steps taken to resolve them, together with a comment in italics for the implications for social policy analysis.(6)

1. A minor, but frequently overlooked problem is that the data is often reported on a household basis. But since households have varying numbers of members, and because large households tend to be poorer, the proportion of household below any poverty line is less than the proportion of people in poverty. The analyst needs to check whether the data is presented by households or people.

2. Note also that the HES data is often reported in terms of years to March. This covers all the respondents in the period April of the preceding year to the march-identified year. Because respondents are asked to report retrospectively on their preceding year’s expenditure, the income data actually reflects more closely the period for September year preceding the March year. Thus, March 1999 year income data would be better attributed to the September 1998 year. This becomes important where there are income comparisons or where price deflation occurs. The data published in the recent edition of “New Zealand: Incomes” by SNZ allows for this,(7) but some of the earlier researchers do not. Unless there is an explicit mention of the time period issue it is probably sensible to assume the adjustment has not been made. This does not affect distributional shares over time, but without adjustment real income changes and timing of changes in real and nominal income levels may be wrong, although the long-run comparisons may be relatively reliable.

3. It turns out that incomes reported in the HES are inaccurate, probably to the extent of being 20 percent lower than accurate measures of income. SNZ is reviewing this inaccuracy. An important issue is whether the error has drifted over time (or even suffered a major change in the mid 1980s when benefit incomes were grossed up). Absolute levels may be incorrect, although changes over time may be more reliable.(8)

4. The results are sensitive to the choice of Household Equivalence Scale. A number are available, some based on a priori arguments, some on econometric estimation (at various levels of sophistication). The most popularly used, the Jensen 1988 scale (based on a priori assumptions), may be extreme compared to the other available ones, giving lowest poverty levels (especially among children).(9) One issue is the extent to which the scales change over time, perhaps as a consequence of relative price changes, especially the increased use of user charging for health services, education and housing which affects different household compositions and different positions in the income distribution (as when the user charging is income tested). The study has done some preliminary work (in draft publication) which suggests that the distribution in general, and the location of some social groups in particular, may be very sensitive to the choice of equivalence scale, among the ones currently available. Claudio Michelin (with Srikanta Chatterjee) has been econometrically estimating new equivalence scales.(10) While not yet having been used in the standard household model, preliminary indications are that they are of higher quality than those currently available.

5. Housing circumstances matter. The standard model treats those who own their own home (with or without a mortgage) and one who is renting (at market or subsidised rents) as all having exactly the same spending power with their reported income. One approach has been to deduct household spending on housing from disposable income. Not only does the resulting hybrid of income and expenditure indicate this method is conceptually wrong, but there also needs to be a resulting adjustment to the equivalence scales. A rigorous way may be to impute “normal” household spending on housing (based on housing characteristics and market income), and treat the net difference between imputed and actual housing spending as imputed income. This is yet to be done systematically. At this stage all the social policy analyst can do is be cautious. It seems likely that not adjusting for housing on average raises the incomes of households with children compared to those without, and lowers the relative incomes of the elderly who tend to own their own housing without mortgage.

6. A related problem exists for spending on education and health. For instance, a household with disability or illness may have medical outlays which a well household does not. The problem is not as large on average as for housing, and therefore probably not as acute across all households. It may be very important, though, to the sick. Again the only current counsel is caution in choice of equivalence scale and through time, especially where policy changes have affected private outlays on educational and health services.

There is, however, a deeper problem behind these statistics for the social policy analyst. What do they actually mean? So what, if we are told that such and such a percentage of the population are in poverty?

What we really want to do is be able to relate certain sorts of behavioural consequences – like the extent to which sickness is caused by poverty. While there are limitations from the essentially cross-sectional data of the HES, the inclusion of health status questions in some surveys means some progress is possible. A basic research technique is to contrast those who are well with those who are unwell. Suppose there is enough information on personal characteristics to make it is possible to predict each well person’s income and expenditure. The personal characteristics of each sick person can then be used to predict their income and expenditure as if they were well. The differences can be used to indicate to what extent the unhealthy’s living standards are depressed by poor health. The remainder of this paper describes how this might be done with the existing data.

Health Status and the HES Questionnaire

For the three years between 1994/95 and 1996/97 a set of health questions was asked in addition to the standard HES questions. Some of the information collected for all household members, including children, about their use of the following health services over the preceding twelve-month period, is essentially “objective”:
* Accident and emergency at a hospital;
* Other hospital services such as outpatient clinic, hospital pharmacies, laboratories or day wards;
* An ambulance;
* Nights spent in a hospital as a patient;
* Nights spent in a nursing home or similar;
* Length of time since visiting a GP;
* Number of visits to a GP or family doctor, nurse, medical specialist or consultant, chemist or pharmacist, optician or optometrist or other medical personnel;
* Medical support services such as laboratories, x-ray clinics or health caravans.

The health supplement also included a “subjective question”:
* In general, how would you rate your health?
with response options of “Excellent”, “Good”, “Not so good”, “Poor”.

Additionally, household members were also asked whether they had medical insurance, a Community Service Card or a High Use Health Card.

Constructing Health Status Indexes

The first step in exploring the relationship between health status and socioeconomic status will be to construct an overall measure of objective health status for each individual. This will be by way of a regression procedure with the objective measures of health status as independent variables and the subjective health measure as the dependent variable. Currently principle component analysis is being used to reduce the data set of health usage to a few variables.

The objective measures that best predict subjective health status should be identifiable. It may be that a combination of several simple objective health measures is a good predictor of subjective health status. The predictors are likely to differ by gender and age.

The objective and subjective health status of each household member will be combined into a household health status index, which can be compared with the household economic status using such measures as household equivalent income, housing status, material consumption, and employment status of household members.

Evaluating Health Status and Economic Status

The subjective and aggregate objective index will enable the researchers to investigate such questions as:
* To what extent do poorer households have poorer health, and those with poorer health live in poorer households?
* Does health related spending differ between different income groups when controlled for health status?
* What is the relationship between housing status and health status, when controlled for income?
* Are there any specific issues relating to children=s health and income?
* Do the unemployed have different health status from other groups, when income is controlled for?
* What is the effect of non-household health funding (such as medical insurance or the community service card) on health spending?
* How effective is the community services card? How successfully is it targeted?
* What is the impact of medical insurance on private health service spending and on health service utilisation?
* Are there differences in spending patterns on other commodities (such as food) between households with different health statuses?

Conclusion

Inevitably there are limitations to interpreting the data. Suppose we observe a concentration of those with poor health among those with lowest incomes. That does not tell causality. It may be the unhealthy become poor, or it may be that the poor become unhealthy. Probably it is a bit of both. Even so, the project will add to knowledge of where the unhealthy are located in the income distribution, in the housing tenure spectrum, and in the source of income spectrum. The study cannot resolve all the questions about health status and economic status. Its more modest objective is to use the HES to make some progress by providing some of answers.

While social policy analysts, especially those concerned with health and socioeconomic status, may eagerly await the research outcomes, they should also be cautious using the existing research, given the problems of data transformation identified here, but still unresolved.

Endnotes
1. The authors would like to thank the following for their assistance in the project thus far: Rob Bowie, Paul Brown, Denise Brown, Len Cook, the HRC, Dean Hyslop, Sandra McDonald, Diane Macaskill, Claudio Michelini, Clare Salmond, John Scott, Helen Stott, and Alistair Woodward.
2. Quasi-unit Records, which are averages of three observations stratified by household type, tenure and income are available for the 1995 year. Indications are they behave sufficiently like unit records for many purposes, and some of the results reported below use them. They are available from Brian Easton, and while there are some restrictions upon their use, which will be no complication for a serious researcher.
3. Any results presented in this study are the work of the authors, not Statistics New Zealand. Access to the data used in this study was provided by Statistics New Zealand in a secure environment designed to give effect to the confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975.
4. For a more extensive account of the model see B.H. Easton (1991) Updating the Economic Model of the Household, Paper to the Conference of the Social Policy Research Centre, University of NSW, Sydney, July 1991, Economic And Social Trust On New Zealand, Wellington.
5. See B.H. Easton (1999) AWhat Has Happened to the New Zealand Income Distribution and Poverty?, Social Policy for the 21st Century, Proceedings of the National Social Policy Conference Sydney, 21-23 July 1999, SPRC University of NSW, . Vol 2, p.55-66.
6. B.H. Easton, (1997) “Measuring Poverty: Some Problems” Social Policy Journal of New Zealand, 9, Nov 1997, p.171-180.
7. e.g. in New Zealand Now: Incomes 1998, SNZ, Wellington, 1999.
8. B.H. Easton (1997) How Accurate are the Incomes Reported in the Household Economic Survey? (Revised), Internal Paper, Economic and Social Trust on New Zealand.
9. B.H. Easton (1997) Household Equivalence Scales and the Household Survey Internal Paper, Economic and Social Trust on New Zealand.
10. C. Michelini (1998) The Estimation of Some Rank 3 Demand Systems from Quasi-unit Record Data of New Zealand Household Consumption, Discussion Paper 98.12, Massey University Department of Applied And International Economics.

Economics in the Healthcare Sector

Pharmac Annual Review 2000, p.24

Keywords: Health;

It is increasingly common for an economist has been approached by some group lobbying for the introduction of a new therapy, or perhaps by the government who wants some guidance. The therapy is expensive, and so the question of whether it can be used involves issues of costs and benefits. Answering that question or, more precisely, making an economic contribution to answering that question is rarely easy, and yet the welfare of patients depends on it. Not only the welfare of those who may be treated but, given the overall budget constraint, diverting resources to the treatment of one disease will leave others without treatment or on a waiting list.

While in practice there has to be some restraint on the amount a nation spends on health, a further complication arises when someone other than the sick or their families pay for the care. The ‘other’ may be the public purse or a private medical insurance, but in either case there is a separation between the consumer of the treatment and the funder. Medical insurance may pass the additional costs onto the pool of insured, driving up insurance premiums. The government may pass the additional costs on as higher taxation. Eventually there is resistance to the higher premiums or taxes.

It is possible to ameliorate this impasse by ensuring the treatment is effective relative to its cost. This is easier said than done. In principle there is surprisingly little information on the detailed effects of many new therapies (and, indeed, many well established ones). This is partly a consequence of the difficulties of accumulating good scientific evidence, but it also reflects a willingness to market a therapy as early as possible. Delaying until a full understanding is obtained might mean some sufferers will miss out, and the profit to the supplier is reduced. Identifying all the consequences of a therapy, good and bad, may literally take generations.

Even where there is sufficient information there is still the problem of measuring the benefits and costs. The best available method involves evaluating the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained per dollar outlaid. However QALYs are difficult to measure and it is not obvious which costs should be included (those to the health budgets, to the entire government budget, to the nation as a whole, including or excluding the costs to the individual and family?).

The New Zealand public health system, including Pharmac, has been exploring the use of the technique. In practice this means that a medication is likely to be approved if its dollar cost per QALY gained is below some set threshold, but in practice the decision is supplemented by common sense. Currently, the main effect of the measure is to discard some very inefficient therapies. As a result there is more to spend on successful ones. Eventually the measure may give guidance on the right size of the Pharmac budget. I shant be surprised if it is larger than the current one, but we do not have the information yet to guide the political decision.

There is an ethical issue here. It would be unacceptable if economists, say, were to determine medical treatment. That is the clinicians’ job. We have a model to help resolve the tension. Hospitals have ‘preferred drugs lists’ which restrict the use of pharmaceuticals unless they are on the list, or unless senior colleagues approve. Pharmac has, in effect, done the same at the national level by deciding which are government funded and which are not. Their decisions should not merely be the expert judgements of Pharmac’s staff, consultants and board. The clinicians using the therapies have to be involved too, and committed to a strategy of ensuring that the therapies they use are not only clinically effective but are also cost effective. Otherwise economists and accountants will make the decisions for them, because the cost dimension cannot be ignored.

That is one reason why there must be a public discussion of the resource issues in medical care, and the need to allocate intelligently, humanely and ethically the available funds to get a maximum return for patients and the nation as a whole.

Global Warnings

Listener:24 June, 2000.

Keywords: Globalisation & Trade;

I probably read a major article or a book on globalization every fortnight. One usually finishes thinking the authors do not know what they are talking about either. ‘Globalization’ means so many different things, even to the same writer, that one ends up in confusion. The best I can conclude is that massive technological changes are changing the potential economic geography of the world. Globalization is the financial, economic, social and political response. Different writers look at different facets of the whole, and miss the complexity of the totality.

So it was with much pleasure I read Globalization and History, by Kevin O’Rourke and Jeffrey Williamson. Combining historical evidence, statistics, and economic analysis, together with common sense, in an attractive and readable way, I imagine the book is already a part of quality economic history courses, Since the general reader may have to struggle through some deeper bits of trade theory – Rybcyzynski’s theorem can be as obscure as the spelling of its author’s name – let me summarize it.

The book is primarily about the nineteenth century ‘Atlantic Economy’ of Western Europe, North and South America, and Australasia (although New Zealand is barely mentioned). It argues that those countries experienced a globalization even greater than the current one. The precipitant was a technological revolution in transport, with railways, steamships, refrigeration, and telegraph substantially reducing the costs of moving products and people. This resulted a shifting of production to low-cost centres, a shifting of capital to high return centres, and a shifting of labour to high wage centres. The economic outcome is known as ‘convergence’. There were reductions in the differences of the price of the same product in different localities. There were reductions in differences in returns on capital between different localities. There were reductions in differences in real wages between different localities. There were reductions in the differences of per capita incomes of the countries involved. But economic growth was stimulated by the reduction in transaction (i.e. lower transport) costs, so even the richest countries continued to grow.

The second post-1950 wave of globalization has some contrasts. Today’s main technological precipitants are the conquering of the airways, the airwaves, and information access. Again transport costs are lowered but this time the impact is more on some service inputs and services sectors. One can use the internet to buy (i.e. purchase retail services from) in locations on the other side of the world. An important difference is that labour is not as mobile today. The book reports 60 million Europeans setting sail for the New World in the century after 1820 – about a sixth of the total population. In contrast migration is much more restricted today, although non-Europeans are proportionally more involved. The other big difference is that technology seems to be more mobile – easier to transfer.

Some effects of this nineteenth century globalization are predictable. Rich countries tended to grow more slowly (per capita) than the poor ‘Atlantic’ countries. Unskilled workers’ wages grew more slowly than skilled ones. However, there were complicated interactions, so the ceteris paribus (all other things being equal) assumptions of the previous few sentences did not always hold. For instance, capital flows could accelerate productivity growth, offsetting any relative depressing of wages. Sometimes there are so many things happening at once that the authors have to use complicated (computable general equilibrium) models. The message I took is that you cannot predict the specific effects of globalization, unless you take everything into account. It is not surprising that people who consider only some things, end up with such different predictions from those who consider only others.

The authors argue that the period from 1914 to 1950 saw a reversal of the nineteenth century globalization, which they attribute to political pressures resisting globalization’s distributional consequences. In particular, the increasing inequality as unskilled wages stagnated led to a discouraging of unskilled immigrants, and border protection for the industries in which the unskilled worked. Economists might ask whether there were better ways than protection to deal with rising inequality. For instance, taxes and benefits could be made more progressive. Upskilling also benefits the unskilled left behind, because there are now fewer of them. But border protection may be a cheaper way of reducing inequality. (It probably was in the first half of the twentieth century, because many of today’s policy instruments were not then available.)

The authors begin the most recent bout of globalization in 1950. We are in its sixth decade. Oh, that some researchers were to explore it as carefully as Rourke and Williamson have done for a century earlier. In the interim I form the most tentative conclusions, which are unlikely to please either side of the current debate.

Globalization is caused by changes in technology which can benefit humanity as a whole It causes a convergence of per capital incomes and wages, so that rich countries benefit less. This time the service sector is involved as well and some non-Atlantic economies are among the beneficiaries. However globalization may not greatly contribute to the welfare of the unskilled, either in poor countries unless there is substantial international migration again, or in rich countries.

Sonja Davies: 1923–2005

Chapter 12, The Nationbuilders. (This was published in 2000, and does not record that Sonja died in June 2005.)

Keywords: Labour Studies; Political Economy & History;

The choice of people to be included in this book is based on a list of over forty names. For reasons similar to those of The Dictionary of New Zealand Biography, only dead nationbuilders were considered. There were a number of women in the list, but despite my trying – with a grim political correctness – none fitted into the story the book was telling. (For instance, Te Puea was building the Tainui nation.) It is, after all, but one story from all of those of the New Zealand nation. Those who saw early drafts often drew attention to the omission, but could not suggest a suitable candidate.

One explained to me it was because in the past women were so preoccupied with their husbands and children they did not have time. I thought that a nonsense, but explained to her, as I do later in this book, that one of the defects of the mid-century nationbuilding was that it was a boys’ thing, which largely excluded women (just as it was a white boys’ thing, so there was not much Maori involvement either). As the Epilogue argues, one of the reasons that nationbuilding could not withstand the onslaught after 1984 was that potential sources of resistance such as women and the Maori had ambiguous feelings about what they were asked to defend. If the next round of nationbuilding does not integrate women and Maori, and other minorities and strands of the nation, it will fail.

But there was another reason why there were to be no women nationbuilders in the book. There were some wonderful candidates but they were still alive.[1] They are women who had husbands and children and a lot more domestic life besides, and yet who contributed to nationbuilding, but with a different conception of nationhood. I will not bore readers with the account of how slowly I came to the conclusion that it would not be inappropriate to relax the selection rules to include one of these women. They will think it a better book for it allows the exploration of some issues more directly than would otherwise be possible.

Sonja Davies was born, about the same time as the other postwar nationbuilders, in Upper Hutt in 1923 (on Armistice Day as it happens – appropriately for a peace activist). Her mother thought she had an understanding with a man, but he reneged on it, apparently because he had an understanding with another woman back in Ireland. At a time when illegitimate children (as they were known) were almost invariably adopted, her mother kept her child and continued to work as a nurse. After the foster parents failed, she was taken over by her grandparents who gave her preschool stability, and the love and support which were the basis of her life. When she was five her mother married, and there were considerable tensions between stepfather and stepdaughter. Even so, the extended family was reasonably affluent middle-class, and despite being moved around the country and between family units and experiencing some early fostering, she had a not uncomfortable childhood, and was not greatly touched directly by the interwar depression.

Sonja – I am going to call her ‘Sonja’, because she did not acquire the name Davies until 1946, and in any case the decision leaves the reader to ponder on the significance of surnames for a woman of her generation – has Maori ancestors, although ‘in those days any Maori blood in the family was seldom, if ever, mentioned’.[2] At 46 she went to a whanau gathering which gave her ‘a sense of identity that was to change my life’.[3] She chose to leave school at fourteen, went through a number of jobs (it was the end of the Depression, and unlike Norman Kirk she was living in Wellington where prosperity came earlier), was married at seventeen and divorced not long after. By now it was wartime and she went into nursing training (by way of a brief spell at university, where in its tramping club she had met, among others, Henry Lang).

Sonja’s autobiography presents her youth as one of high spirits contrasting, say, with Douglas Robb’s, which portrays gravitas. In fact they were both feisty characters, both kept getting into scrapes, and both are fundamentally dignified people. Both had tuberculosis, Sonja catching hers during her nursing training. By today’s standards the medical establishment seemed quite unconcerned about the numerous staff who suffered this fate – even the meanest accountant would grumble of the subsequent treatment costs. For the ten years after 1945 Sonja’s life was dominated by visits to hospital for treatment and various strategies to reduce its effect. Just before its diagnosis she had a daughter to a US marine who died in the Pacific war, and whose early life of foster and family homes was not unlike her mother’s.

In this case the separation was more to do with preventing cross-infection. In 1946 Sonja married Charlie Davies, a returned serviceman whom she had known before he went overseas, and who proved to be a talented commercial and recreational landscape gardener (and husband). They moved to Nelson in the belief that the climate would be better for her lungs. Eventually Penny was able to join them, although the relationship between Penny and Charlie was much more loving than that between Sonja and her stepfather.

I want to pause for a paragraph, and reflect that I have had to include more personal detail of Sonja’s life than I did for any man. Yet in each of those particularities of marriage and pregnancy there was also a man. It is not just Sonja, for her autobiographies mention the lives of other women where it would be as important in their recounting to provide this detail. (A feature of her early life, and characteristic of other women of her generation, was just how little sex education was available.) And I have not listed – vivid though it is in the autobiography – the various episodes of sexual thoughtlessness and harassment (including an attempted rape in late pregnancy) that she and her fellow women experienced.

Sometimes the male reader of her biography has a sense that he is in a different country from that portrayed in the life accounts of the male nationbuilders. It is that sense I want to try to capture in this chapter, and yet to argue there has been some convergence, in which Sonja played an important role.

It took some time to get over the TB. To this day she has only a quarter of her lungs, although there is the toughness of steel in that apparently frail body. Shortly after the recovery she had Mark (and two painful ectopic pregnancies).

She had already come to public attention. The province of Nelson is one of those isolated parts of New Zealand, cut off by sea to the north and west, and by mountains to the south and east. (Today Nelson airport is the fifth busiest in New Zealand, although its city is not among the top ten.) There were ambitions to connect to the railroad network from the 1870s, but despite frequent promises from politicians, by the early 1950s the line south from Nelson had still not reached Murchison where it would have been connected to the main trunk line at Blenheim. In 1955 the National government announced it was going to close the railway. When the contractors moved in to start ripping up the lines, they found a group of women sitting on the tracks. The protest was lead by Ruth Page, a schoolteacher born in the first decade of the century. Sonja was a central part of the organising team. The demonstration, like most protests which arise from spontaneous local anger, had its bizarre elements (Page always wore a hat) and got national and international notice. The railway was nevertheless scrapped, although perhaps it is less necessary in the days of better roads and airways. Later Sonja was to protest over the closure of the Nelson cotton mill, clashing with both the National government and F. P. Walsh.

Sonja thinks she may have been born a dissenter. Certainly from an early age she showed a cussed independence – her parents were Presbyterians but she insisted on going to a high Anglican church. From her teens she got involved in union affairs, and in the peace movement, although during the war she was corresponding with both conscientious objectors and soldiers, which might reflect empathy overriding ideology. Because she was a woman, it was natural to ask how to improve their lot. In truth, like the other nationbuilders she was an activist, who was progressive rather than radical. Her apparent radicalism was a consequence of male misunderstanding of women.

By the early 1960s the activist was a justice of the peace (she kicked up a stink about the local practice of women JPs not doing court work), serving on the Nelson Hospital Board and the Nelson City Council, and deeply involved in the Nelson Labour Party (and later the national executive of the Labour Party) and also with numerous progressive local (and later national) organisations. Two deserve elaboration.

The peace movement is a long part of New Zealand’s heritage, including conscientious objection during both wars, and Riverside in Nelson, a Methodist community, not far from the Davies’ first home, which provided the family with support at critical times. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament started in the early 1960s, in imitation of the British organisation, but it soon developed distinctive features of its own, in part because the foreign model was not appropriate and New Zealand had its own preoccupations such as French testing in the Pacific. Because it was not trapped into a colonial subservience to an overseas model – unlike many of the local communist parties – the New Zealand peace movement was a nationbuilder. The world seemed a long way away geographically, and its ideological disputes seemed as irrelevant then as they seem today. The movement was not isolationist, but it saw there was no need to get embroiled in these ideological and imperial conflicts. Its demands included a nuclearfree South Pacific and the withdrawal of New Zealand from military pacts involving nuclear weapons, such as ANZUS and SEATO. Had the protesters been asked whether nuclear war or the fulfilment of these demands was the more likely by, say, the year 2000, most would have sadly predicted the former. The Cuban missile crisis nearly met their expectations, but today what were once outrageous policy demands are now in the core of the bipartisan New Zealand foreign policy. In between, CND metamorphosed into the campaign against military involvement in Vietnam, swelled by sympathisers who had thought its earlier goals were too ‘idealistic’ – practically unattainable.

The peace movement had community-wide involvement, but women were equal if not ahead in its leadership. (Sonja mentions the Christchurch-based national CND leadership of Mary Woodward and Elsie Locke. When it moved to Wellington, Shirley Smith became national secretary.) An historian of the nuclear disarmament movement, Lawrence Wittner, shrewdly observes that the male leaders were first famous in some other sphere, whereas ‘the fact that such talented women, in the years prior to their movement work, did not attain comparable eminence says a great deal about the discrimination against women in political and intellectual work of their time.’[4] Inevitably Sonja ended up as the secretary of the Nelson CND and an activist in the national movement. No doubt that strengthened her internationalism, although – extraordinarily, by contrast with the experiences of later generations and those of her contemporary male nationbuilders – she was 48 on the first occasion she went overseas. Sonja’s internationalism – her frequent support and involvement for overseas causes – demonstrates that nationalism need not be parochial. The point is it should not be subservient to the demands of other nations.

An important function of the anti-nuclear movement was that it enabled the older people, whose views of peace were formed in the 1930s and 1940s, to mentor the next generation. At home in Nelson Sonja was mentoring other young people by throwing her home open to them.

Her other major extra-political party activity was to found and be the first president of the New Zealand Association of Child Care Centres (now the New Zealand Childcare Association). Its origins may be attributed to the occasion when Don McKay, the minister of social security, grumbled to her that he was besieged by requests from individual child care centres, and suggested they should be ‘all joined together in one group. It would be easier for everyone.’[5] So they did. The ‘they’ were almost exclusively women (although Bill Sutch helped draw up the constitution). Despite a later widespread public misunderstanding these centres were not exclusively concerned with the children of working mothers in paid employment. Indeed the centre with which Sonja was originally involved was primarily a ‘swept-up shoppers’ creche’, although she was also concerned for 24-hour child care to deal with emergencies like a parent or child having to go into hospital. (Not every one has a friendly neighbour or a Riverside community.) Had one been betting on her destiny in the mid-1960s, the money would have been on a future career in Parliament. She was already on the Labour Party national executive, had stood for the marginal seat of Hastings in the no-swing election of 1966, and was a confidante of Norman Kirk, then party leader. Kirk, as has already been observed, was not strong on women’s issues. (He must have gritted his teeth when Sutch asked him to launch Women with a Cause, but such was the mana of the occasion he did it.) Sonja recalls that Labour’s 1972 election campaign strategy was devoid of references to women, so she lambasted the two MPs in charge of it. She even led a picket on the issue at the 1972 Labour Party conference, an especially heinous offence in an election year.

But her parliamentary prospects were already zero. Some years earlier she had warned Kirk of widespread rumours of alleged extra-marital affairs. He reacted strongly and never spoke civilly to her again. Since like so many institutionalised organisations in a hollow society, the Labour Party was hierarchically organised from the top, that put paid to that career path. The Labour Party’s loss was the unions’ gain. Charlie had given up self-employment and become a union organiser for a number of small unions, which could exist under the compulsory provisions of the Industrial Conciliation and Arbitration Act (IC&A). A major coronary attack in 1968 meant he could no longer work. Sonja looked after his members for a while, and then the family moved to Hawke’s Bay, where she became an organiser for the local food processing and clerical workers’ unions. She re-entered the full-time paid labour force at 45, having been out of it for almost 25 years.

About the time Sonja was born, only 15 or so percent of the (paid) labour force were women. By the time she re-entered the proportion was closer to 30 percent. Today it is over 45 percent. However, women were less likely to be unionised, although the unionisation data does not seem to have been collected by gender. Moreover, the higher up the union hierarchy, the lower the proportion of women. Sonja records only seventeen women delegates at the 1973 conference of the Federation of Labour (FOL), out of a total of several hundred, and of course there were none on its executive at the time.

Men were wont to explain the low involvement of women in the higher levels of unionism as a result of their lack of interest (and some women were apathetic but, then, so were some men). Moreover women tended to be concentrated in particular sectors which were difficult to unionise – clerical workers and distribution workers – so their membership was particularly dependent upon the compulsory union provisions of the law. But it is also an example of the hollow society, in which top-down institutions are imposed which while beneficial to those at the top, are not necessarily relevant to the membership. Consequently the top is relatively unresponsive to change at the bottom. As female employment grew, women’s interests would lag in the priorities. Of course the unions said they were democratic. Some were, but as we saw with Walsh, some were not. Bastions of male dominance were not going to adapt quickly to the rise of women, unless there was a bulldozer. Enter Sonja Davies.

She had to learn the trade first. Charlie had taught her some, and then there was her Hawke’s Bay experience. James Wattie called her the ‘million dollar woman’ because she had forced his Hastings works, so he said, to spend a million dollars on worker amenities. In 1971 Charlie died from his heart condition. Shortly after Sonja moved to Wellington, at first to the Public Service Association, subsequently to the Wellington Shop Employees’ Union. By 1972 the union had become moribund, with 38 percent of its book membership unfinancial.

Membership apathy and uninspiring, inadequate or perhaps incompetent leadership were definitely factors. But the ‘arbitration system’ also played a part. The provisions of the IC&A Act, especially those governing union organisations, union preference and the provision of awards, meant that most unions in New Zealand were small, fragmented and lacked internal vitality.[6]

The union secretary was bundled out, to be replaced by Graham Kelly, who set about rebuilding the union. Because the majority of shop workers were women, he wanted women organisers. Sonja was an obvious choice. Two campaigns – the demand for equal pay for women (the legislation was passed by Labour in 1973) and opposition to the extension of shop trading hours (passed by National in 1977) – were particularly important, and involved her and the union intensively.

In Wellington, she lived in Brooklyn near the Plischkedesigned house of Sutch and his wife Shirley Smith (another pioneer for women, who kept her surname on marriage, an almost unthinkable act in 1944). They had first met in early 1962 when the Sutch and Smith were in Nelson (at the WEA camp where he used fishing to symbolise the political economy of New Zealand), and had called in on Sonja and introduced themselves. They kept in touch, and Sonja would go to Sutch for advice. They had bought some surrounding properties to put a drive onto the grounds, and they rented one of the cottages to Sonja. Wellington enabled her to better pursue her political interests, which were focused on women’s causes in and out of the union, together with internationalism.

Travelling in Israel in 1974 she conceived a New Zealand Working Women’s Council, and an Australian Conference in 1976 led to the conception of a Working Women’s Charter. Neither birth was an easy one. I tell the council formation story in her own words: it is August 1975 and she has finally set up a meeting with prime minister Bill Rowling, Arthur Faulkner who was the minister of labour (and one of those Sonja had lambasted in 1972 for the lack of women in the election strategy), the secretary for labour, and Tom Skinner and Jim Knox, president and secretary of the FOL.

It was no easy task to get such busy men together. . . . I outlined the proposals, only to hear Tom Skinner reply that, while he thought it an excellent idea, there were serious industrial problems which must take precedence. Bill Rowling said he, too, was concerned about those problems, but he felt that the Working Women’s Council was a positive scheme and deserved support. . . . When he asked me if $80,000 would help I nearly fell off my chair, but recovered and stammered, ‘Yes, we could do quite a lot with that.’ I went out into the brisk air in a state of euphoria.[7]

The Labour Party after Kirk was beginning to respond to women’s contemporary needs.[8] But the Council was funded from the top. What the Lord giveth, the Lord may take away. Or rather the electorate did. A few months later it elected a National government which would not provide further funding, arguing that such things were union not government responsibilities.

The Working Women’s Charter was more revolutionary in terms of disturbing the status quo. A major principle of community-based unions is ‘organise’, something which was not always necessary to run a union under the IC&A Act. So Sonja had to organise, relying on the vast network of women that she had been involved with over the years in such activities as the childcare movement, the Labour Party, local government, the peace movement, the union movement, and the women’s health network.[9] The men in this book also had networks, but typically they were elite ones involving a few hundred at the most, mainly of people living in Wellington, and normally in positions of power. The women’s network was more like the World Wide Web, a vast array of nodes (in this case women) with interconnections which cannot often be readily traced. Drawing on this, Sonja was able to involve unexpected numbers of women at the Trades Council discussions, and in 1980 the FOL adopted the charter, despite spirited opposition from a small but vociferous group who objected to some provisions on religious grounds.

Undoubtedly there would still be protest on the issue of fertility regulation. (Sonja ‘began the Charter Campaign feeling rather ambivalent on the question of abortion, and to this day I do not believe I could have had one myself. However I realised I had no right to decide for anyone else.’)[10] But the rest would, today, be considered as uncontentious as – say – a nuclear-free New Zealand.[11]

By now Sonja had been elected to the executive of the FOL – the first woman to be so – and three years later in 1981 she became its vice-president, meanwhile participating in such activities as equal pay reviews, the Equal Opportunities Tribunal, chairing the New Zealand International Year of Peace Committee in 1986, and the New Zealand Women’s Refuge Trust Foundation. Retirement from the FOL, which covered only private sector unions, came in 1987, when the public sector unions joined the peak organisation, renamed the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions.

But it was not retirement. Before the end of the year she was elected to the parliamentary seat of Pencarrow – Eastbourne, Hutt, Wainuiomata – to experience the worst six years of her working life. She was almost 64. In the 1960s the Labour Party had prohibited those over 57 from standing for the party for Parliament – it was rumoured this was to keep Sutch out of Parliament, although it is difficult to imagine him functioning well there. (The chosen age meant an MP would be under 60 when they retired.) The rule was replaced with a 67 age limit (i.e. retirement before 70) but her nomination was no easy matter. We need to scroll back to 1984.

The incoming Labour government under David Lange, but driven by minister of finance Roger Douglas, had adopted economic policies which were anathema to the majority of the Labour Party (and to most voters). In 1987 the party – in this case both the party hierarchy and its grassroots – attempted to pull back the rogernomes by ensuring as many of the new caucus members as possible were opposed to their policies. While the strategy was successful, the rogernomes, aware of the move, tried to thwart it.

The candidacy for Pencarrow involved a particularly vicious fight between Sonja and an old friend who had moved steadily towards favouring rogernomics (and returned to Britain to become, eventually, a press officer to John Major, and later the Queen).

While the Labour Party had succeeded in changing the balance of its parliamentary caucus, there were still insufficient ‘loyalists’ in caucus to stop the policies it detested. Especially when it is in government, a parliamentary party is hierarchically organised, where the top usually has sufficient patronage and influence to be able to maintain a majority in caucus by recruiting ideologically weaker members.

The incoming MPs, many like Sonja and Kelly (who had been elected for Porirua) battle-hardened in other venues, initially found the culture of Parliament bewildering. (In those days there were not even induction courses.) With the exception of Richard Northey (who had entered in 1984 and was an old friend from Sonja’s peace movement days), the established MPs did little to support them. Moreover, when it became a direct dispute between a minister backed by a team of public servants and bunch of junior caucus members, it was hard to find any (necessarily voluntary) expertise to balance the sheer firepower, irrespective of how wrong the minister was (and much that ministers argued, we know with hindsight, was wrong). The group face had principles, but there had been economic changes which meant the principles had to be applied differently. But they never had the time, nor the technical assistance, to work out the new applications. Policy was blitzkrieged through – sprung on the caucus and country without warning, and rushed through without consultation and before the resistance could organise. Sonja reports:

At 6.00 every morning I stood in the shower with Morning Report on the radio balanced on the handbasin, it seemed that I kept hearing yet another minister talking about an imminent sale of yet another state asset, and I would leap out, bruising my shin, because this was the first I heard of it.[12]

Graham [Kelly] and I fought the sale of assets in any way [we] could. [Richard] Prebble [the Minister for State Owned Enterprises] persuaded pro-economics people in caucus that this particular sale had to go through by twelve noon or New Zealand’s economy would be threatened. . . .[13]

The incoming MPs were torn between loyalty to the Labour Party as members of caucus, and to their Labour Party principles and constituents. All their adult lives they had been nurtured by the labour movement, where loyalty was important. If you lost a battle, you stayed on to fight again. Now Labour seemed to be betraying itself. They could have walked out as Jim Anderton did. Here is Sonja’s explanation why they did not:

In 1988, Graham and I made the first of two approaches to the general secretary of the Labour Party . . . and the president . . . and asked them if the Party would support us if we voted against further privatisation of state assets. They turned us down. [Much later, a Labour Party council member] said that with hindsight he felt we should have been supported.

When it came to the debate over the sale of the Bank of New Zealand our small group of . . . MPs collectively walked out of the House as the bells were ringing for the vote. We decided we would issue a press statement to oppose the sale. We went down to Graham’s office, locked the door and started on the press release. Some time later there was an urgent tapping at the door. It was the Senior Whip [who in 1996 left the Labour Caucus and joined the United Party, thus assisting the National government to remain in power in the runup to the election]. She asked what we were doing and we told her. She said, ‘the Prime Minister asked me to tell you that you’re to come back to the House immediately.’ We told her to tell him we would not come back, and we added ‘tell him we may never come back.’ We spent the rest of the evening wondering what on earth we could do to stem the tide.

In the end we decided once again to consult Labour people in our electorates. The advice of my people was that I should hang in there, and Graham received pretty much the same advice.[14]

This was the hollow society at its most authoritarian. Because the institutions of society – including the Labour caucus – were organised from the top, the community was unable to resist, although it protested. The caucus dissenters’ defiance has been forgotten in the political turmoil of the week which followed, when Lange sacked Douglas from cabinet. Perhaps their resistance stiffened Lange’s resolve. It influenced the future course of their party, although ironically they received little subsequent recognition. Of the core dissenters, four lost their seats in the 1990 landslide, Sonja and two others retired in the 1990s, and neither of the two still in the Labour caucus gained cabinet positions in 1999, even though some 1980s rogernomes did. (Anderton, who left the Labour caucus and started his own party, became deputy prime minister.)

Following the 1990 landslide, in which the Labour caucus was nearly halved, the enemy was now on the other side of the lines. It rolled back the welfare state while the Employment Contracts Act abandoned almost a hundred years of industrial relations development. Its passing was a strange affair. There was a constant reference to how the new act would enable employment to be managed in the manner of the recently established Fortex meat processing works which, it was said, had the industrial relations regime of the future. When the company went bankrupt, it turned out it had a high labour cost structure – not the low one the debate promised – and was kept solvent by a financial deception resulting in its managing director and general manager being jailed.[15] There were no quantifiable productivity gains in the national economy either. The National proponents made numerous promises of better outcomes which did not occur, yet never apologised for the failure of their predictions. (The record of the previous Labour government’s promises were no better.)

The Act’s impact on the union movement was more predictable. The union structure which Walsh had led, with horizontal (occupationally based) unions spanning many industries, was obsolete. The increasingly open economy needed vertical awards covering a single industry (or enterprise), which could respond flexibly to industry-specific shocks. The horizontal unions – most notably those involving clerical workers – resisted the CTU’s recommended union restructuring. The new act collapsed them, although in some cases the workers were incorporated into industry-based unions.[16] Even these industry-based unions found recruitment and retention much more difficult. In 1995 the National Distribution Union (the result of an amalgamation between unions representing shopworkers, storemen and packers, and drivers) had 22,000 members, a little more than half of its 36,000 in 1991.[17] Pay and conditions were cut too. Women workers suffered most.

In 1993 Sonja retired to a house in the Wairarapa, frail in body but robust in spirit, where she continues to be active gardening, writing and getting involved in politics as much as her circumstances allow – perhaps more so.

Sometime in early 1923, millions of spermatozoa competing to fertilise one human egg resulted in a child born nine months later. As luck would have it, the winner was carrying an X chromosome, so the baby was a girl, who would lead a very different life from the one a boy would have led. Scroll forward a hundred years and in 2023 the same thing will happen, except that the life course of the child will be less dependent upon whether that chromosome is X or Y. There will be differences – biology still matters. But the lessening of those differences will have been in part a result of the efforts of that woman born in 1923.

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Notes

[1] Elsie Locke died in April 2001, after the text was completed.

[2] Davies (1984), p.20.

[3] Davies (1984), p.173.

[4] L. Wittner (1997) Resisting the Bomb, Stanford, p.404.

[5] Davies (1984), p.143.

[6] K. Hince, K. Taylor, K. Peace & M. Biggs (1990) Opening Hours: History of the Wellington Shop Employees Union, Wellington, p.68.

[7] Davies (1984), p.296.

[8] For an account of this thawing see M. Shields, ‘Women in the Labour Party during the Kirk–Rowling Years’ in M. Clark (2001) Three Labour Leaders, Palmerston North.

[ 9] There is also a very extensive rural women’s network, but in this case it was probably not called upon.

[10] Davies (1984), p.302.

[11] T. Neary & J. Kelleher (1986) Neary: The Price of Principle, Auckland, pp.139–46.

[12] Davies (1997), p.69.

[13] Note to BHE, February 2001.

[14] Davies (1997), pp.78–9.

[15] B. H. Easton (1996) ‘Ex-Fortex,’ Listener, 18 May 1996, p.50.

[16] B. H. Easton (1997) The Commercialisation of New Zealand, Auckland, pp.122–31. For the clerical workers’ unions see P. Franks (1991) ‘The Employment Contracts Act and the demise of the New Zealand Clerical Workers Union’, NZ Journal of History, 28, 2, October pp.194–210.

[17] E. Dannin (1997) Working Free: The Origins and Impact of New Zealand’s Employment Contracts Act, Auckland, p.214.

Bibliography

Baysting, A., D. Campbell & M. Dagg (1993) Making Policy . . . Not Tea: Women in Parliament, Auckland. pp.9–11, 41–2, 71, 91–2, 137–9.

Coney, S. (1982) ‘The Davies Dossier’, Broadsheet, June 1982, p.31.

Davies, S. (1984) Bread and Roses, Auckland.

Davies, S. (1993) ‘The Corridors of Powerlessness,’ in S. Kedgley & M. Varnham (ed) Heading Nowhere in a Navy Blue Suit, Wellington.

Davies, S. (1997) Marching On, Wellington.

McCallum, J. (1993) Women in the House: Members of Parliament in New Zealand, Picton, pp.214–23.

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The (Economic) Life Of Harry

Listener 10 June, 2000

Keywords: Political Economy & History;

So much history in New Zealand ignores the economic context in which the people’s lives take place – censored out, like death itself. Attending a recent funeral of an ordinary New Zealander, it occurred to me that I could illustrate my point in his life.

Harry was born in 1918 in Silverstream Hospital, near the Trentham military camp where his father was based. The family tradition is that he was born in a tent, for New Zealand was still at war. One doubts a tent would have lasted long in the Wellington wind. The delivery room must have been a makeshift building (although given the way we run our hospitals, it probably lasted half a century).

I wondered how much GDP had increased in the 82 years that Harry lived. Our best estimate suggests it grew at an annual average of about 1.5 percent per person. Today the economy is about 10 times bigger and the average person about 3.2 times better off measured by material output than when he was born. That does not allow for quality change. I should think that today’s maternity hospitals are more than 3.2 times better than Harry’s.

Harry was the first of seven children. In contrast he was to have three and each of his children two. Family size has diminished over the years. One cause has been women’s changing aspirations. Harry’s mother stayed at home (housework was onerous in those days), his granddaughters work. His father was a railway clerk in Christchurch, until a blood disease from the Great War got the better of him. That was in the 1930s, when they had also taken in an invalided grandfather. There was no comprehensive social security so times were tough. To support the family, Harry went to work as soon as he could leave school, drifted from job to job, until he became an electrician specialising in rewiring the armatures of motors. He did this into his sixties part-time, for it involved such specialised skills, few others followed. The job was created by import controls. Burnt out motors had to be recycled. In any case they came in such a variety that there was no certainty one could be replaced.

Harry benefited greatly from the welfare state. He was married in 1940 (missing war service by not being medically fit). He had job security. You could walk out on a bad boss (there were a few) and immediately find another job. There was even a bit of overtime. His kids got decent health care and education, in a benign – if not inspiring – social environment. In the mid 1940s the family moved into a state house. He died in one, except it had been bought from the state 30 years earlier on favourable financial terms. His wife, Thelma, went out to work, as a school secretary to pay off the second mortgage.

Harry played a lot of sport, and did more than his fair share of its administration. Halfway through his life, was sport that gave him the big chance. Forty years ago the Christchurch City Council did not allow sport on its grounds on Sundays. So enthusiasts played out at the Templeton Hospital for intellectually disabled men and women instead. One of its staff asked Harry if he had thought of psychopedic nursing. Harry proved to be a very good nurse, for he loved both the technical side, and cared greatly about the patients and fellow workers. (For a while he was a P.A. union delegate.) The hours were long and there was the shift work, but the pay was good. He became a charge nurse, not seeking further promotion because he wanted to be hands-on rather than an administrator. After retirement, he kept in touch with the hospital until it was closed down. It was not a job but his profession. Had he the chances of a later generation he might have become a doctor.

He retired in 1983 on New Zealand Superannuation, topped up by an employer subsidized occupational pension from the National Provident Fund, and a freehold house. He kept himself busy helping the neighbours, friends, and family. He was bewildered by post-1984 governments’ apparent desire to cut the welfare state which had given him so much.

Five years ago, he had a bad lung infection on top of emphysema and almost died. (Yes, he had smoked for forty odd years.) The local hospital gave him superb support as an inpatient, and then as an outpatient when he returned to moderate health. He died peacefully (and suddenly) about a month ago, from a dissected aneurism. The hospital staff were again marvellous. The health system to which he had given so much in his working life returned the favour, the state to whom he paid his taxes supported him in his need.

At Harry’s funeral, I thought about a book I am writing, of some of the great nationbuilders – politicians, economists, artists – of his generation. But we should not overlook the many ordinary men and women, who each made their own contribution, without whom those nationbuilders would never have succeeded. Ordinary people like Harry – Harold Easton – Dad.

Self-interest Rates

Listener: 27 May, 2000

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;

New Zealand’s economic debate can be bizarre. Take the recent rises in the Reserve Bank base interest rate. Hardly anybody made the point that world interest rates are rising. The American Fed(eral Reserve Bank) is putting up its base rate, the European Central Bank is too, so is Australia’s Reserve Bank (RBA), and so on. Can we ignore a rising tide? The rest of the world could then borrow unlimited quantities from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), a scenario too absurd to contemplate. Something horrible would happen to our monetary system and economy if we ignore what happens overseas.

Once we could run a monetary policy with some independence from the rest of the world. There were interest rate controls, credit controls, money controls, exchange controls, and the government (the taxpayer) was subsidizing credit by borrowing overseas dear and lending domestically cheap. Moreover, gross foreign borrowing was much lower than today, relative to the size of the economy. It seems unlikely that the past controls could be reimposed effectively given the current external debt level and the evolving world financial markets.

Because of the particularities of the Reserve Bank Act, the Bank’s angst-ridden justification for the interest rate rises is the need to control inflation. It would be easier if the RBNZ Governor, Don Brash, could say something like “My good friend and colleague Alan Greenspan (chairman of the US Fed) is putting up interest rates yet again, and everyone else in the world is too, so we have to follow. The issue is whether we should put them up more or less than average. Higher interest rates are slowing down the world economy by braking credit-based decisions (such as investment and consumer borrowing). In our view that will sufficiently slow down the New Zealand economy. So we think it only necessary to raise our official cash rate in parallel with world trends.”

Financial commentators are not restricted by the Act, and they are ill-disciplined as a consequence. They seem to think that Brash running the monetary system on the margins of the world economy, is doing the same as Greenspan at its centre. So they parrot American commentators. It is a colonial attitude with its holders subservient to the imperial view of the world. Today it is a US view, although their grandfathers were as subservient to a view from London. Rather than think through what is distinctive about the New Zealand economy’s circumstances, they ape analysis of the dominant economy, often using tipster sheets that come from the US, or from equally cringing Australians.

The same problem bedevils the discussion on monetary union with Australia or the US. Let me make just a few points, for it is a complicated issue. (You would not suspect so from the public discussion.)

In many ways the fashion for monetary union is an acknowledgement of the failure of the last fifteen years, both in policy and performance. After all, a monetary union involves a fixed exchange rate, in which the value of the New Zealand dollar is rigidly anchored to a set rate of another currency. In March 1985 the rogernomes changed from a fixed to floating rate, probably the most important single decision they took. So were they wrong? I have yet to find any account of why those who supported the past reforms have changed their mind so dramatically.

And if the rogernomes got that wrong, their supporters seem to think the same of the RBNZ. A monetary union would transfer its powers to the central bank of the uniting economy. Now there are no controls as there was in the past, to enable an independent policy to be pursued. Those who want to fix must be assuming that the RBA or the US Fed can run New Zealand’s monetary policy better than the RBNZ. Perhaps it can, but that is something we ought to discuss, rather than assume. (Any monetary authority in an economy which has its share values so dangerously out of line with reality as in the US, cannot be given a top grade. History will be less generous with Greenspan’s reputation, after the millennium depression.)

Many of its most prominent advocates have a self-interest in monetary union. The policies they supported have failed the economy so desperately that even the financial sector is suffering. (They might stop whingeing about the poor performance of the local share-market, and instead reflect on how policies in their short term selfish interest have damaged us all in the long term.) A fixed exchange rate allows the financial community to get in on the financial action of more successful economies, irrespective of what it does to the rest of the country.

The point of this column is not to argue that interest rates should or should not be raised, or that we should or should not fix the exchange rate. Rather, it has tried to indicate the deep policy issues. It is a plea that the public deserves something more than the froth and bubble, and the naked self interest, that dominate the public debate.

Delayed Impact

Listener 13 May, 2000.

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;

To understand the consequences of dramatic change in share prices, think instead about housing. Suppose you are told the value of your house has doubled. Suppose it makes no difference to your behaviour (except a bit of skiting, disguised as grumbling about higher local authority rates). When sometime later you are told your house price has halved, it wont matter much either (except you have another excuse for grumbling).

Another possibility is that because your house price is higher, you decide you are closer to your retirement savings target. So you save less and spend more out of your income. That spending would give an extra boost to the economy. If enough people behaved that way, production would increase and unemployment fall. (That seems to have been happening with rising share prices. Savings out of incomes have been falling here, and in many other countries.) When the price of your house halves, you are now further from your retirement savings target and so you increase your savings rate by cutting back spending. If enough people did that, economic activity would slow down, although in some circumstances the government can increase its spending as an offset.

Alternatively, you might reason that if your house price has risen, it will rise again. So you buy more houses. Perhaps you mortgage your current house, in order to buy them. To illustrate, suppose your house was originally valued at $50,000, and leaps to $100,000. Expecting further rises, you take out a $75,000 mortgage and purchase three more houses of the same value, mortgaging them on the same terms. The figures do not matter too much, but if you are following them you now have $400,000 (4 X $100,000) worth of housing and $300,000 (4 X $75,0000) of debt. Your equity remains the $100,000 of your original house.

If enough people do this, house prices will rise from the additional pressure on demand, and you will have made a tidy capital gain. (I leave the reader to work out how a 10% increase in house prices gives a 40% increase in the equity.) As long as house prices rise, you can keep buying more, using the past capital gains to finance the new acquisitions. Encourage your friends. The more there are in the market, the more demand pressure, and the more house prices will rise.

This seems to be a philosopher’s stone, turning nothing into something of value. For there is no additional production and no increase in the flow of income your houses are generating. A measure of net revenue is the price to earnings (P/E) ratio, which is the (share) price of the asset divided by the annual earnings of the share or asset. Most “new technology” stocks have P/E ratios of more than 100. If your houses had that you would be earning a hundredth (or less) of $400,000, or $4,000 (after paying rates insurance and maintenance and so on), out of which you would have to service the $300,000 debt. You could get a better deal by investing your initial money in government stock at 7 percent p.a. (This gives a P/E ratio of 100/7 = 14.3). Not all your friends will want to invest in such an ultimately low return market, others will get into cash flow difficulties, and some will pull out taking their money with them. Eventually the speculative growth will slow down, peak, and stabilize. With no capital gains, more leave, and prices fall.

Asset prices falls are dangerous. Suppose they halve. (Estimates of the underlying values of US shares suggest they have often been overvalued by a factor of two or three, so a halving is not that implausible.) Then your total assets will be valued at a half of $400,000 to $200,000. But your debts will still be $300,000 so your equity is now negative. To (mis)quote Mr Micawber: “Total assets, twenty pounds, total debts nineteen, nineteen six, result happiness. Total assets twenty pounds, total debts twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” It is not only your misery. Your debtors may suffer. Suppose you borrowed some money from dear Aunty Flo to buy a house. You wont be able to refund her.

We do not know how much of the US sharemarket boom has been financed by unwise borrowing, although every previous boom has. So we do not know the extent to which, as the market comes off the top, it will implode as investors struggle with negative equity (or illiquidity, when they have the assets to cover their debts but cannot quickly convert them into cash).

What I do know is that it is easier for the sharemarket to get into a speculative bubble than a housing market (where transaction costs are higher). The hype is correspondingly greater there too. (Which major media outlet gives real estate agents a daily slot to unashamedly promote their products? They do for the financial sector.) Thus the greater volatility of the share market will be compounded by great hysteria as it returns to equilibrium. The economic impact takes longer to emerge.