Category Archives: Statistics

Rgdp And/or Rgdi: the Impact Of the Terms Of Trade

This is an addition to The Impact of International Price Discrepancies on PPP-adjusted GDP and expands on material in Estimating Production and Income Across Nations: Reconciling the Differences: the New Zealand Experience .

Keywords: Statistics;

While the nominal output of an economy, usually called ‘Gross Domestic Product’ or GDP is exactly the same whether it is measured by what is produced or how it is disposed – on the production side or the expenditure side of the economy. This occurs because the incomes the expenditure generates exactly matches the outlays (including investments) the incomes finance. However this mathematical congruency does not apply when a different set of prices is applied to the production and expenditure sides of an open economy, even if the prices are consistent. The difference arises because the goods and services consumed in an open economy differ from that which is produced because some of the domestic production is exchanged for foreign production, that is it is exported to in exchange for imports. The ratio of the exchange values can vary, and that leads to the difference when, for instance, constant price GDP estimates are made over time. This exchange ratio can be measured as the ration of export prices over import prices. Note that the exchange rate does not directly influence the terms of trade ratio, providing the prices are measured either in the local currency or the international currency.

The Determinants Of GDP Growth Rates: Reviewing a Study

Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Statistics;

Sources of Economic Growth in New Zealand: A Comparative Analysis is a paper attached to the latest IMF review of the New Zealand economy, prepared by Abdelhak Senhadji who was one of the IMF review team. It is on the IMF website After reviewing the record of New Zealand’s slow growth performance it presents a (reduced form) econometric equation which attempts to provide quantitative estimates of various influences on New Zealand’s poor performance. This paper reviews the study.

When GDP and GDE Are Not Equal

Keywords: Statistics;

Introduction

It is an elementary truism of economics that Gross Domestic Product can be measured on the production side (that is in terms of the products of firms) and the expenditure side (that is in terms of the final purchases of the products) and the two aggregates are exactly equal to one another (although in practice there will be a measurement error, called the ‘statistical discrepancy’).

Measuring PPP-adjusted GDP (index)

MEASURING PPP-ADJUSTED GDP (INDEX)
This is the index of a series of papers concerned with PPP measures. The papers are in varying presentational styles and also reflects my growing understanding of the issues involved, and my improving presentation of them.

Keywords: Statistics;

What Was a Pound Worth?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Inflation Calculator and earlier

Keywords: Statistics;

As a part of its statutory responsibility for price stability, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has provided a web based ‘Inflation Calculator’. Historians will find it useful to convert an earlier price into a current one, thus giving readers a better sense of the significance of a historical value.

The Econometrics Of Household Equivalence Scales

Paper to the Wellington Statistics Group (WSG), 11 February, 2004.

Keywords: Distributional Economics; Statistics;

Contents
1. Claudio Michelini
2. Household Equivalence Scales
3. Characterising Equivalence Scales
4. Available Scales
5. Which Scale Should We Use?
6. Which Scale Do We Use?
7. A Simple Econometric Procedure
8. The Michelini Scale
9. Conclusion

Closing the Credibility Gap

Why Act’s race-based welfare statistics are worthless

Listener: 7 February, 2004.

Keywords: Maori; Statistics;

Early in January the Act Party released a paper that calculated the tax collected from Maori was $2.3 billion a year, while government spending on Maori was $7.3 billion a year. Whatever the factual situation –– below I suggest that the figures are misleading –– different political flavours will draw different conclusions.

The Impact Of International Price Discrepancies on Ppp-adjusted Gdp

This is the first of a series of papers concerned with PPP measures. The papers are in varying presentational styles and also reflects may growing understanding of the issues involved, and my improving presentation of them.See Measuring PPP-adjusted GDP Index for the other papers. This paper, written in September 2003, is a simple mathematical exposition.

Keywords: Statistics;

This paper is presents a simple proposition:

Where the international prices of exported goods are less than the purchasing power parity prices of the same consumption goods the purchasing power parity adjusted GDP measured on the production side will be less than the purchasing power parity adjusted GDP measured on the expenditure side for those countries which are net exporters of the good.

How Representative Of Inflation Are Changes in the CPI?

DRAFT: Comments welcome. (The origins of this paper are evident in the text, but its stimulus was a question arising from the interpretation of a standard textbook on international trade.)
The paper was revised in April 2003.

Keywords: Globalisation & Trade; Macroeconomics & Money;

Over a decade ago I investigated to what extent the CPI could be used to represent the prices of the economy of the whole (GDP), as a part of the study which led eventually to In Stormy Seas. In the process of reducing the vast quantity of material that was produced into the book for publication, the material was left out. (The first draft of the book was about twice as long.)

I must have thought the issue as a methodological curiosum at the time, but since the book’s publication on a number of occasion during public discussions I have wished the material had been publically available. As the next section explains, the section was an illustration of one of the general issues with which In Stormy Seas was concerned, and it is also – as a later section explains – crucial to the understanding how monetary policy works, and how the current management regime may inhibit economic growth.

The Economic and Health Status Of Households Project (Index)

Keywords: Distributional Economics; Health; Statistics; Social Policy

This is a project by Suzie Ballatyne and myself based on the Household Survey, which enabled us to look at some of the relationships between health and economic status.

Executive Summary

A preliminary account of the research program is
Economic Status and Health Status Project

Two papers which report some of the findings are
Validation and the Health and Household Economy Project
and
Who Goes to the Doctor?

The final report, The Economic and Health Status of Households is available on request. Its Executive Summary is on this website, and so is Chapter 6,
Choosing Household Equivalence Indexes

Index of Distributional Economics
Index of Household Equivalence Scales

Validation and the Health and Household Economy Project

Paper to the Wellington Health Economists Group, Thursday 29 November, 2002.(1)

Keywords: Distributional Economics; Health; History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Statistics;

Introduction.

This is a brief summary of a 100 plus page report, The Economic and Health Status of Households,(2) prepared by Suzie Ballantyne and myself. The data base was the Household Economic Survey (HES). For the three year period covering 1994/5-1996/7 the HES included questions on the respondents’ recent utilisation of health services together with as a subjective assessment of each’s health status, as well as socioeconomic variables such as income and expenditure and personal characteristics.

The Economic and Health Status Of Households

Report by Brian Easton & Suzie Ballantyne, Wellington School of Medicine

Keywords: Distributional Economics ; Statistics;

This report contains the contents and executive summary only. Copies of the report (with its numerous tables) are available on request from Brian Easton. Some tables are in Validation and the Health and Household Economy Project

For an introduction to method see The Economic and Health Status Project

Contents
Executive Summary Below

Chapter 1: Introduction (page 8)
Chapter 2: Measures of Health Status (page 11)
Chapter 3: Adjusting Household Income for Housing Circumstances (page 24)
Chapter 4: The Utilisation of Health Care Services (page 35)
Chapter 5: The Determinants of Private Spending on Health Care (page 44)
Chapter 6:
Choosing Household Equivalence Indexes
(page 52)
Chapter 7: The Household Distribution of Income (page 76)
Chapter 8: The Household Distribution of Income Adjusted for Housing Circumstances (page 84)
Chapter 9: The Location of Health Status in the Income Distribution (page 92)
Chapter 10: Conclusion. (page 97)

Claudio Michelini: 1940-2000

From Chapter 6 of The Economic and Health Status of Households by Brian Easton and Suzie Ballantyne.

Keywords: Statistics;

The authors would like to acknowledge the significant contribution of Claudio Michelini to the development of empirically based equivalence scales in New Zealand, the topic of this chapter. Claudio had worked on the underlying theory (the preference-consistent Extended Linear Expenditure System) as a part of his postgraduate work at the University of Bristol. But in those days the computing power was insufficient to cope with the non-linear estimation that (ironically) the linear theory required.

Household Equivalence Scales

This is Chapter 6, written jointly with Suzie Carson, from The Health and Economic Status of Households. The appendices are not published, and the acknowledgement to Claudio Michelini has been published separately. Even so website presentational requirements have led to some changes – and perhaps infelicities. The full chapter is available from the authors.

Keywords: Distributional Economics; Statistics;

Introduction

The (disposable) income of a household has to be adjusted for the composition of the household, the numbers and ages of those who belong to it, if we want to make useful comparisons of the standard of living of different households, or to predict commonalities of their behaviour such as expenditure patterns. A simple adjustment might be to convert the income to a per capita basis, but that ignores the impact of household economies of scale and for the different characteristics of the inhabitants. It is not true that ‘two can live as cheaply as one’, but two living together are likely to spend less than if they live separately in order to attain the same standard of living. It also seems reasonable to postulate (and the research evidence supports) that different ages have different needs. Other relevant factors might be gender, employment status(for employed people may have outlays that the not-employed do not have, such as on transport to work), and marital status (since a couple may have expenditure savings relative to two singles living in the same house).

Beware the Median

SPRC Newsletter No 82, November 2002, p.6-7.

Keywords: Distributional Economics; Social Policy

In their article Beware the Mean!, Peter Saunders and Tim Smeeding argue that median household is a superior reference point for establishing a poverty line than mean household income, concluding ‘Put bluntly, the use of a poverty line linked to mean poverty income produces excessively high poverty rates that tend to increase by more when poverty is rising but to fall by less when poverty is falling.’ The purpose of this note is to demonstrate that poverty lines based on a fixed proportion of the median income are subject to a fatal flaw, illustrating the consequences of the flaw with recent New Zealand experiences.