Our current fiscal settings promise that we will eventually face a public debt explosion. A major cause would arise from the aging population. Is there anything we can do? It has long been known that the ageing population would create future fiscal pressure. It was quantified in the first (2006) Treasury long-term fiscal projection and…
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Today’s mañana strategy will lead to a crisis for the oldest elderly. It is said that the only certainties are death and taxes, but a lack of each causes uncertainties. As longevity increases, the pressures on state spending increase. A reluctance to increase taxation means the pressures on the elderly increase. The dilemma is usually…
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Introductory Notes for Brightstar Seminar: The Delivering Equity for Older People in New Zealand Grand Millennium Hotel, Auckland on Apr 30 & May 1, 2024 Thankyou for the invitation to contribute to this panel. About twenty years ago, Suzie Carson and I were investigating wellbeing via the Household Economic Survey. We got what at first…
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In the Abstract: Will Most Of Us Have an Impoverished Retirement? (June 6, 1998) Richard Thaler’s Savings Principles (7 January 1999) Two Styles Of Management (1 July 1999) This reviews Thaler, R.H. (1992) The Winner’s Curse: Paradoxes and Anomolies of Economic Life, Princeton University Press; Thaler, R.H. (1994) Quasi Rational Economics, Russell…
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Regrettably, the government’s recent announcements on the public provision for retirement have added to the uncertainty the young face. The Government’s announced proposal to raise the age of eligibility for New Zealand Superannuation (NZS) is a real botch job. I’ll leave others to write about the political botch; here the focus is on the policy….
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How Much of New Zealand Has to Be Owned and Controlled by Foreigners? This year is the fortieth anniversary of the founding of CAFCA – the Campaign Against Foreign Control of Aotearoa – a Christchurch-based, but national, activist organisation. It ‘promotes the concept of an independent Aotearoa based on policies of economic, military and political…
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Should membership of Kiwisaver be compulsory? Research, some of it thirty years old, points in that direction. The current debate over the future of Kiwisaver is largely bereft of developments in economics over the last thirty or so years. Rather the frame has been an approach to human behaviour which we know does not reflect…
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The case for raising the age of eligibility for NZS; and how we can do it. Pundit: 17 November, 2014 Keywords: Retirement Policy; I support raising the age of eligibility for NZS but not, primarily, for reasons of fiscal sustainability. Rather it needs to be increased for equity reasons. Longevity is increasing….
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Can the property companies that run rest homes provide effective care? Listener: 14 November, 2013 Keywords: Regulation & Taxation; Retirement Policy; Social Policy; I have had to visit a number of rest homes for the elderly. Such visits can be pretty draining. The one positive is the caring and concerned staff –…
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How to live with the Treasury’s Long Term Financial Projections. Listener: 11 August, 2013. Keywords: Regulation & Taxation; Retirement Policy; Social Policy; I was on the external panel advising the team from the Treasury that put together its Long Term Fiscal Projections, required every four years and looking half a century forward. A…
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Listener: 7 July 7, 2012. I am appalled by the Prime Minister’s deferral of consideration of the age of entitlement for New Zealand Superannuation. Many think it should be raised from 65 years. Key said he was more focused on immediate issues than on longer-term ones. That is an appropriate attitude for a money-market dealer,…
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Speech to Launch the Report “New Insights into the Experienced Generation” for the Hope Foundation, 30 July 2009 Keywords: Social Policy; Statistics; This report represents a further step to our understanding of ourselves as a society. Only a few decades ago we treated all New Zealanders as the same, with the implicit assumption…
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How our fondness for instant gratification challenges conventional economic thinking. Listener: 5 May, 2007. Keywords: Health; Social Policy; You go into the bar for a couple of drinks. The following morning you can’t remember how many you had, but your head and throat wish you had not. What intrigues an economist…
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MMP has reduced policy extremism, but more consensus politics are needed to solve our big economic questions Listener: 21 October, 2006. Keywords: Environment & Resources; Governance; The rise in personality politics is an unexpected consequence of MMP. Certainly there are other factors, including a change in the US political debate (recall the attacks…
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Listener: 12 August, 2006. Keywords: Social Policy; It may seem absurd to ask the Treasury to project the government’s fiscal position, that is, its tax and spending, out to 2050, but that is what Parliament requires of them in its 2004 Public Finance Act. Given rising longevity, some of the study’s authors may…
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Listener: 7 May, 2005.
Keywords: Regulation & Taxation;
I have long been intrigued by Nicholas Kaldor’s proposal for an Expenditure Tax. Instead of taxing income: what one puts into the economy, why not tax expenditure: what one takes out? Should not those on the same income who can live more frugally pay less tax than the profligate? (Can I hear you saying, “Easton, you are a puritan”? I plead guilty, but am also attracted for environmental reasons.) As Kaldor points out, advocates for such a tax have included Thomas Hobbes, John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall and Irving Fisher, which shows that supporting it is not a matter of being politically left or right.
The retirement debate depends on a disagreement between economists.
Listener : 23 October, 2004.
Keywords: Social Policy;
About 30 years ago economics sharpened its theory of behaviour with the assumption that everyone took economic decisions that gave them the best outcome. We might call this the “neoclassical paradigm”. It simplifies analysis enormously, and was used in policy extensively in the 1980s and 90s. In practice, the paradigm recognises that individuals don’t actually maximise, but it assumes that people are always taking actions that move them closer to the optimum, so the assumption of best outcomes is near enough to be true.
Listener 15 November, 2003.
Keywords: Social Policy;
In 1998 our life expectancy at 65 was 17.6 years, so over half those who go onto New Zealand superannuation pass their 80th birthday. In 1898, when the much less generous Old Age Pension was introduced, life expectancy at the 65-year-old age of eligibility was 13 years. Over the century the average life expectancy at 65 has increased by almost five years. Can the state pension be as relatively generous as longevity increases?
Keywords: Retirement & Savings; Social Policy;
Chapter 5 of The Whimpering of the State: Politics After MMP. Does not contain diagrams or endtnotes.
Keywords: Social Policy;
It was not macroeconomic policy that proved politically disastrous for Winston Peters. NZF’s economic policy unravelled over retirement policy.