This paper was prepared in January 2009 and revised in June 2009. Its purpose was to clarify some issues. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Overseas debt had a significant role in the Long Depression of the 1880s and 1890s and the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s. This suggests it would be helpful to be…
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When will the New Zealand recession end? Listener: 27 June, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; If the international recession is going to go on for some time (Economy, June 13), what about New Zealand’s? The forecasters expect New Zealand production to hit its lowest point towards the end of this year. Subsequent…
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I was unable to address the housing paper in my end of my seminar commentary at the RBNZ Professorial Workshop on the Current Financial Crisis (17 June 2009). This covers some of the things I wanted to say. By way of background Luci Ellis, whose paper this note covers, is Head of Financial Stability at…
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Contribution to the concluding panel of the RBNZ Professorial Workshop on the Current Financial Crisis: Historical Perspectives and Implications for New Zealand. 17 June 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; I was recently involved in a non-government discussion about policy responses to the current recession which gave no attention to what was causing the…
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When will the global financial crisis be behind us? Listener: 13 June 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Hucksters trying to sell you something will tell you the global financial crisis will soon be over. But what do we mean by “over”? If we mean it’s when the world economy reaches…
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When the economy is dire, first Budgets can be good, bad or an ugly shade of black. Listener: 30 May, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; : Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; The first Budget of a new government is a defining moment. The Key Government’s is on Thursday, May 28….
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Come Budget day, expect some wailing and gnashing of teeth. Listener: 16 May, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; We are in the recessionary equivalent of a phoney war. The economy is certainly in a recession – it began in early 2008 and is already one of our longest postwar ones. We may…
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Presentation to begin a discussion on the Global financial Crisis; to the ‘God Talk’ series at the the Cathedral Church of St Peters, Hamilton Cathedral, May 3, 2009. Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money; I thought context for this evening’s discussion would be a biblical text – verses 6 to 10…
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Would you rather be comforted or told the truth? Listener: 2 May, 2009. Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; April 26 is the centenary of the birth of the great 20th-century newspaper columnist William Connor, who wrote under the byline Cassandra. The allusion is to…
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One Stop Update for Accountants in the Public Sector 20 April 2009, Wellington. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Statistics; Balance sheets are integrally involved in the greatest economic crisis in our lifetime. So while my remit is to provide the conference with an economic context to its deliberations, I have to engage with accountancy….
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Writings to the end of March 2009 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The following is a summary of my writing on the Global Financial Crisis beginning in August 2007, when it became evident that the world financial system (and probably the world economy) was going to face great stress. I compiled it to enable me to…
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Listener: 21 March, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Until recently, government revenue was in the happy position of being a little more than government expenses. But, unfortunately, the forecast is ominous. The Treasury is picking that government expenses will continue growing after 2008, broadly following the trend of the past few years,…
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NZ Institute of International Affairs: Wairarapa 18 March, 2009, Masterton (revised). A slightly shorter version was presented to the Wellington WEA on the 23 March. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The International Financial Crisis By way of context the world economy faces the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression in the early 1930s…
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Paper for the 6th Annual Policy Evolution Conference; 16 March, 2009, Wellington (Revised) Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation; The International Financial Crisis I have but a short time for my presentation, so I am going to focus on a single facet of the macroeconomics of social policy, the coming fiscal crisis. By way…
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Listener: 7 March, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; We face two conflicting messages over how to behave in current economic circumstances. One is that we should continue to consume and invest. If we don’t, spending and in production will fall, workers will be laid off, investment will taper off, the economy will contract,…
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Is the entire financial system just one big pyramid scheme? Listener: 21 February, 2009 : 21 February, 2009Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; : Macroeconomics & Money;Carlo Ponzi was an Italian migrant to the United States who, after a career of petty larceny and time in prison, thought there was an opportunity to make a fortune from…
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Paper to ‘Drinking Liberally’ forum, 12 February 2009. The paper is in two parts. Part I Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; To summarise what I was saying before the liberal drinking. The international monetary system is not working because of the large quantity of unknown and unlocated toxic assets on the balance sheets of its…
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Paper to ‘Drinking Liberally’ forum, 12 February 2009. The paper is in two parts. Part II Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The world economy is in an extremely unsatisfactory state – some would say it is teetering on the edge of a depression comparable to that which occurred in the 1930s. There are no quick…
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Presentation to the NZIIA, February 10, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; September 2008 – or perhaps August 2007 – is likely to remembered in a manner similar to the Wall St crash of October 1929, or the terrorist attack of 9/11. It was the point at which it became clear to all but…
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What goes down may well come back up, but who knows when? Listener: 7 February, 2009 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The economic situation, both locally and internationally, is in such a state of confusion that anyone who says they know what is happening doesn’t understand the mess we are in. This…
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