I was asked what was the impact of these two events on the New Zealand economy. This hurried note covers some, but not all, the effects. a major omission is the impact of the private capital flows arising out of the compensation by insurers. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; These are harder questions to answer than…
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New Zealand Home Health National Conference, 2 September, Auckland Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Social Policy; I have been asked to present an account of the economic context in which the home health services industry will function. I am not going to talk about the rising demand for its services because of population shifts taking that…
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Anglican Taonga, Spring 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The world has just gone through its greatest financial crisis since the 1930s. We may be grateful that things were not as bad as was feared, but we need to recognise that while the financial stage of the crisis may be over, there are still economic consequences…
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This is a draft extract from a chapter of “Not in Narrow Seas: A History of New Zealand from an economic perspective”. It has been circulated and hence is put here on the website. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; New Zealand’s greatest banking crisis came at the end of the Long Depression….
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Paper to the Wairarapa Branch of the NZIIA, July 21 2010. Keywords: Globalisation & Trade; Macroeconomics & Money; Introduction Future historians are likely to identify the topics of this evening’s presentation as the two major economic forces of our times: the rising importance of the Chinese economy and the Global Financial Crisis. My task tonight…
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SOME BLOG COMMENTS The Dim-Post blog, extracted a section from Does the Government Know What it is Doing? (http://www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=1217). There was a vigorous and – usually intelligent – commentary, to which I – quite out of character – responded. Here are my replies. The full blog is at http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2010/07/16/does-the-government-know-what-its-doing/ Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy…
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There is good reason to think the Global Financial Crisis will last a few years longer. Listener: 10 July, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; We once had a Ford Escort that got stuck crossing fords. (We called it the Ford which wouldn’t.) The first time this happened, I involuntarily switched on the starter motor, which…
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What the Government’s strategy is likely to be for the upcoming Budget. Listener: 15 May, 2010 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; One “crisis” strategy is to announce that something is desperately wrong, which needs a dramatic policy change to fix it. Closer inspection shows the claim is more hysteria than careful assessment; the new policy benefits…
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It may be all Greek to some, but New Zealand risks getting caught in the storm. Listener: 3 April, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; It’s possible – although not certain – there will be a second phase of the global financial crisis, involving sovereign nations rather than financial institutions. To protect their citizens from the…
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Our economy is suffering from some severe imbalances that are hindering an upswing. Listener: 6 February, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The so-called recovery of the New Zealand economy could turn out to be L-shaped. Under this scenario, after the economy reaches the bottom of the contraction, it doesn’t move into an upswing, either rapidly…
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Paul Samuelson, 1916-2009. Listener: 23 January, 2010 Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; We called it “Sam”, but its official title was Economics. Written by Paul Samuelson, it’s the book that – as author Robert Heilbroner put it – “changed our vision of economics from the dismal science to a study of social possibilities”….
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Children’s classic The Wind in the Willows is also a fable for adults. Listener: 9 January, 2010. Keywords: Literature and Culture; Macroeconomics & Money; The “Poop-poop” rang with a brazen shout in their ears, they had a moment’s glimpse of an interior of glittering plate-glass and rich morocco and the magnificent motor-car, immense, breath-snatching, passionate,…
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With no real economic strategy, the Prime Minister is playing a dangerous game. Listener: 26 December, 2009. Keywords: Political Economy & History; The reason the Government is thought to have a secret agenda is that it has no agenda. It has instincts, and commitments to keep, including ones to those that helped elect it, such…
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Economic recovery means government spending restraints and higher taxes. Listener: 21 November, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; In Through the Looking Glass, Humpty Dumpty warns us to be careful with the meaning of words. So what to call a world economy generally turning to custard? No one wanted to call it a “depression” because of…
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Our glut of overseas borrowing is like a disease eating away at the economy. Listener: 24 October, 2009. Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Macroeconomics & Money; If a large highly productive foreign-exchange-earning sector emerged, it would squeeze the existing tradeable sector: exporters, and industries that compete with imports. Not only would it earn foreign exchange more…
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If nothing is done, our credit rating will be downgraded and interest rates will rise. Listener: 12 September, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; When the economy plunged in 1975 as a result of the first international oil shock, the Labour Government increased public borrowing. But when the world economy recovered, the New…
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Paper for Towards a Value Driven Public Sector Summit, 15 July, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation; Social Policy; Before talking about the fiscal imperatives in the narrow sense, I want to make a couple of general remarks about the rhetoric of policy. . The first is that the need…
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Could New Zealand become a “Southern Rock”? Listener: 11 July, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Northern Rock, a British bank specialising in mortgages, nearly went bust a couple of years ago. It was getting a quarter of its funds from depositors, with the remaining three-quarters coming from the international money market –…
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Paper to the summit “Reviewing New Zealand’s Accident Compensation System” Wellington, 29 June, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Social Policy; The world is facing a global financial crisis with the international system malfunctioning, as many banks – which provide the means of payment and facilitate investment – having to limit their lending…
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Appendix to Forecasting New Zealand’s Net International Investment Position Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; I really wanted to project foreign liabilities relative to all assets. It is a different story if the liabilities rise more slowly than the assets or vice versa. Statistics New Zealand provides estimates of ‘Net Capital Stock’ which is the accumulated sum…
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