The country is weighed down by a mountain of foreign debt and ownership. Listener: 16 October, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; In the decade to March 2009, about $340 billion was invested in New Zealand. Of that, about $205 billion was spent on replacing old assets, leaving $135 billion for new ones. Whether this was…
Continue reading this entry »
In early 2009 I published a summary of my writings on the Global Financial Crisis from August 2007 to March 2009: www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=1351 (itself following an early note on what I called the Millennium Depression: www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=174). This index updates the earlier summary and its prologue remains relevant here. The summary is to trace my thinking on…
Continue reading this entry »
The crew worked extremely hard to keep the good ship New Zealand afloat. Listener: 18 September, 2010. Keywords: Governance; Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; When Alan Bollard transferred from the position of secretary of the Treasury to that of the governor of the Reserve Bank, a good friend announced it was “more pay…
Continue reading this entry »
I was asked what was the impact of these two events on the New Zealand economy. This hurried note covers some, but not all, the effects. a major omission is the impact of the private capital flows arising out of the compensation by insurers. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; These are harder questions to answer than…
Continue reading this entry »
New Zealand Home Health National Conference, 2 September, Auckland Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Social Policy; I have been asked to present an account of the economic context in which the home health services industry will function. I am not going to talk about the rising demand for its services because of population shifts taking that…
Continue reading this entry »
Anglican Taonga, Spring 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The world has just gone through its greatest financial crisis since the 1930s. We may be grateful that things were not as bad as was feared, but we need to recognise that while the financial stage of the crisis may be over, there are still economic consequences…
Continue reading this entry »
This is a draft extract from a chapter of “Not in Narrow Seas: A History of New Zealand from an economic perspective”. It has been circulated and hence is put here on the website. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; New Zealand’s greatest banking crisis came at the end of the Long Depression….
Continue reading this entry »
Paper to the Wairarapa Branch of the NZIIA, July 21 2010. Keywords: Globalisation & Trade; Macroeconomics & Money; Introduction Future historians are likely to identify the topics of this evening’s presentation as the two major economic forces of our times: the rising importance of the Chinese economy and the Global Financial Crisis. My task tonight…
Continue reading this entry »
SOME BLOG COMMENTS The Dim-Post blog, extracted a section from Does the Government Know What it is Doing? (http://www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=1217). There was a vigorous and – usually intelligent – commentary, to which I – quite out of character – responded. Here are my replies. The full blog is at http://dimpost.wordpress.com/2010/07/16/does-the-government-know-what-its-doing/ Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy…
Continue reading this entry »
There is good reason to think the Global Financial Crisis will last a few years longer. Listener: 10 July, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; We once had a Ford Escort that got stuck crossing fords. (We called it the Ford which wouldn’t.) The first time this happened, I involuntarily switched on the starter motor, which…
Continue reading this entry »
What the Government’s strategy is likely to be for the upcoming Budget. Listener: 15 May, 2010 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; One “crisis” strategy is to announce that something is desperately wrong, which needs a dramatic policy change to fix it. Closer inspection shows the claim is more hysteria than careful assessment; the new policy benefits…
Continue reading this entry »
It may be all Greek to some, but New Zealand risks getting caught in the storm. Listener: 3 April, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; It’s possible – although not certain – there will be a second phase of the global financial crisis, involving sovereign nations rather than financial institutions. To protect their citizens from the…
Continue reading this entry »
Our economy is suffering from some severe imbalances that are hindering an upswing. Listener: 6 February, 2010. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The so-called recovery of the New Zealand economy could turn out to be L-shaped. Under this scenario, after the economy reaches the bottom of the contraction, it doesn’t move into an upswing, either rapidly…
Continue reading this entry »
Paul Samuelson, 1916-2009. Listener: 23 January, 2010 Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; We called it “Sam”, but its official title was Economics. Written by Paul Samuelson, it’s the book that – as author Robert Heilbroner put it – “changed our vision of economics from the dismal science to a study of social possibilities”….
Continue reading this entry »
Children’s classic The Wind in the Willows is also a fable for adults. Listener: 9 January, 2010. Keywords: Literature and Culture; Macroeconomics & Money; The “Poop-poop” rang with a brazen shout in their ears, they had a moment’s glimpse of an interior of glittering plate-glass and rich morocco and the magnificent motor-car, immense, breath-snatching, passionate,…
Continue reading this entry »
With no real economic strategy, the Prime Minister is playing a dangerous game. Listener: 26 December, 2009. Keywords: Political Economy & History; The reason the Government is thought to have a secret agenda is that it has no agenda. It has instincts, and commitments to keep, including ones to those that helped elect it, such…
Continue reading this entry »
Economic recovery means government spending restraints and higher taxes. Listener: 21 November, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; In Through the Looking Glass, Humpty Dumpty warns us to be careful with the meaning of words. So what to call a world economy generally turning to custard? No one wanted to call it a “depression” because of…
Continue reading this entry »
Our glut of overseas borrowing is like a disease eating away at the economy. Listener: 24 October, 2009. Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Macroeconomics & Money; If a large highly productive foreign-exchange-earning sector emerged, it would squeeze the existing tradeable sector: exporters, and industries that compete with imports. Not only would it earn foreign exchange more…
Continue reading this entry »
If nothing is done, our credit rating will be downgraded and interest rates will rise. Listener: 12 September, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; When the economy plunged in 1975 as a result of the first international oil shock, the Labour Government increased public borrowing. But when the world economy recovered, the New…
Continue reading this entry »
Paper for Towards a Value Driven Public Sector Summit, 15 July, 2009. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation; Social Policy; Before talking about the fiscal imperatives in the narrow sense, I want to make a couple of general remarks about the rhetoric of policy. . The first is that the need…
Continue reading this entry »