Wellington branch, NZ Shareholders Association, 10 June 2014 Keywords: Business & Finance; Macroeconomics & Money; My topic tonight is New Zealand as a bubble economy. But I need to start with a listener warning. I am an economist, not a financial adviser – registered or unregistered. Economic theory tells us something about the context of…
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It’s election year – should the government surplus be used to a) cut taxes, b) help the poor or c) repay debt? Listener: 5 June, 2014 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Just before the Budget there seemed to be a public disagreement on economic policy between Prime Minister John Key and Finance Minister…
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Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History; In the Saturday 17 May 2014 issue of “The Dominion Post Weekend” Vernon small wrote an article. “English emerges smiling from global meltdown: Finance minister one of a string of highly competent money men, New Zealand has been ‘lucky to have’.” In it he quoted me….
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If minority interests are to be met, how are they to be funded? Listener: 15 May, 2014 Keywords: Literature and Culture; Macroeconomics & Money; Except for talkback, one thinks of radio as an audience-passive medium. Radio New Zealand (RNZ) was reminded that this is not necessarily the case at an April meeting…
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Keywords: Distributional Economics; Growth & Innovation; Statistics; I have just realised that we can calculate Amartya Sen’s ‘real income’ measure for New Zealand for a 30 year period, by combining our Statistics New Zealand estimates of national income with the Ministry of Social Development estimates of household gini coefficients. This note describes how this…
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The new wave of “sharia-compliant” banks go to a lot of trouble to neither charge nor pay interest. Listener: 27 June, 2013 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; ‘No risk, no return” is a summary of Islamic financial principles. So their system has to work without interest. Muslims are not opposed to…
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The Austerian Economists’ Error In the battle of opinions for managing sluggish economies, rhetoric often misrepresents the research. Listener: 13 June, 2013 Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money; The right response to high unemployment and lethargic economic activity is to cut back government spending, according to “Austerians”, whose…
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In the unlikely event of a bank collapse, a proposed new measure would help safeguard our savings. Listener: 27 April, 2013 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Banks can fail. That is not the same as a run on a bank, in which depositors withdraw funds faster than the bank can liquidate its investments, even though it…
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This index, first compiled in January 2013 and subsequently updated, is a list of article on the website which have a substantial content about earthquakes and other natural calamities. They were not a focus until the Canterbury Earthquakes, which I began writing about as “Listener” columns to illustrate general issues. However, they are acquiring a…
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A Government surplus means little when private sector borrowing is rampant. Listener: 30 January, 2013. A little complacency seems to have crept into the latest Government economic forecasts. In its December outlook, the Government promised to get its books into surplus in the 2014-15 year, the first time in seven years. It might just make…
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Writings on the Long Recession from October 2010 to December 2012 This is the third entry which summarises the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath. The first index (www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=1351) covered the period from August 2007 to March 2009 The trigger was in the US sub-prime market crisis in August 2007, about a year before the…
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During Rugby World Cup 2011, historian and editor of online encyclopedia Te Ara Jock Phillips searched for the “real New Zealand”. He trotted around museums and other earnest alternative exhibits, often rugby-related, reporting on what the non-rugby elite thought was important.
He won the battle for the White House, but Obama’s fiscal war continues. Listener: 13 December, 2012. The day after Barack Obama was re-elected President, attention turned to America’s “fiscal cliff”, despite there being nary a reference to it in the campaign. Another reminder that elections are rarely about the real issues: recall how when…
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What we really need to do to get house prices back on track. Listener: 29 November, 2012. A friend was enthusiastic about various unorthodox money measures, such as quantitative easing and cutting the official cash rate. I asked him how they would work. He had no idea. His was the New Zealand way: “Bugger the…
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This unpublished paper contains figures in its full version. Unfortunately I can’t work out how to include them. I’ll send the figures if requested. Summary This paper derives a locus between the real exchange rate and net national savings (gross savings less gross investment). Its essence is that a rise in net savings reduces the…
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A note prepared in October 2012 Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Summary This paper derives a locus between the real exchange rate and net national savings (gross savings less gross investment). Its essence is that a rise in net savings reduces the real exchange rate. Conversely a rise in dis-savings increases the real…
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A Note prepared in October 2012. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation; Introduction I have argued there is a critical threshold where if the fiscal deficit exceeds it public debt grows unsustainability faster than the ability of the economy to service it (usually measured by GDP). This note quantifies the threshold…
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The just-departed Reserve Bank Governor had less power than people think. Listener: 27 October, 2012. Alan Bollard, the just-retired Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, is a genial man with a wry sense of humour. He is also a great public servant for whom we have much to thank. He will be best…
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Listener: 29 September, 2012. The world economy remains fragile. There may be another major economic crisis, but if not, things will continue to drift – or possibly sink. Here are some of the major known unknowns facing the world – and us. It’s hard to say much about the United States economy. The country is…
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A note prepared for discussion in September 2012. Keywords: Business & Finance; Distributional Economics; Globalisation & Trade; Growth & Innovation; Macroeconomics & Money; What is the Purpose of the Economy? * The purpose of the New Zealand economy is to maintain and increase the wellbeing of all New Zealanders. It is neither the…
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