There is a constant theme from the economic commentariat that New Zealand needs to lift its economic growth rate, coupled with policies which they are certain will attain that objective. Their prescriptions are usually characterised by two features. First, they tend to be in their advocate’s self-interest. Second, they are unbacked by any systematic empirical…
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Robert Solow transformed the way we think about economic growth. When you are in the trenches, you may not always realise what the war is about. Years later you read an account and see more clearly. Thus it was with me in the 1960s when economic analysis went through a revolution. My insight came later…
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In his Economists in the Cold War, Alan Bollard contrasts Saburo Okita of Japan with Zhou En Lai of China to highlight a critical issue. Saburo Okita (1914-1993) was in Manchuria (northeast China), in the port city of Darien (Chinese: Dalien) which was occupied by Japan at that time. Because they were politically unsympathetic to…
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Alan Bollard, formerly Treasury Secretary, Reserve Bank Governor and Chairman of APEC, has written an insightful book exploring command vs demand approaches to the economy. The Cold War included a conflict about ideas; many were economic. Alan Bollard’s latest book Economists in the Cold War focuses on the contribution of seven economists with each one…
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Singapore and New Zealand have much the same population – a bit over five million people. They are both affluent economies – Singapore is more affluent than New Zealand although there are reasons to believe the data exaggerates the differences. Because of their resource base and location they have rather different economic structures. Yet the…
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A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, except that it showed weakening…
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I was asked by a Spanish journalist the following two questions (particular with attention to a historical perspective): How likely do you see (if at all) a transition from an economy based on primary products towards an economy where digital services exports might play an important part? I would also like to ask about the…
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Thursday 24 November The Commission’s report on the seminar is here. It includes the my overheads which accompanied the presentation. Introduction I have been commissioned to prepare a report for the New Zealand Productivity Commission’s inquiry into economic resilience. The purpose of the report is threefold: 1. to describe how New Zealand has attempted to…
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Speech for launch at Parliament of Heke Tangata, Māori in Markets and Cities on Tuesday 15 May 2018. The event is sponsored by Te Whānau o Waipareira, the National Urban Māori Authority and Oratia Media at the invitation of the Hon. Willie Jackson, Associate Minister for Māori Development. Kia Ora Koutou Katoa. I begin by…
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The growth of farm output may be slowing. Specialty cheeses show an alternative strategy of further post-farmgate processing. Land for farming ran out in the 1950s. Farm production intensified. We shifted from more dollars of farm output by using more land to getting more dollars per unit of land. Among the challenges we had was…
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Answering that question proves to be challenging. This preliminary assessment suggests the economic benefits to incumbent New Zealanders may not be great. During the Vogel boom, say between 1871 and 1881, the population of New Zealand doubled, as did real GDP (as best as we can measure). That means per capita GDP was much the…
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The report of the Productivity Commission on the Tertiary Education Sector “New Models of Tertiary Education” is complacent. The report observes that in the decade from 2001 to 2011, the ratio of non-academic and academic staff in the public tertiary educational system rose from about equal to six non-academics to five academics. In fact the number…
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A recent government report projects huge increases in employment but at least 72 percent of those jobs are to go to immigrants. I was a bit startled by a report recently released by the Ministry of Business Industry and Employment which forecast an extra 480,000 jobs over the next ten years. Those with a memory will recall…
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A new book leads to ponderings on our technology strategy. Technology is an ambiguous notion. Its most common use in economics arises in the following way. The laws of thermodynamics mean that there exist production functions which relate inputs to outputs. The most familiar ones have a single output generated by inputs of labour and…
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The alienated Angries who supported Brexit and Trump are not going to go away. If any question why we died, Tell them, because our fathers lied. Arch-imperialist Rudyard Kipling’s bitter couplet, written shortly after the death of his son at Loos in September 1915, is an alternative view…
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Paper to the Fabian Society, 12 October, 2016 While we continue to chew over the carcass of the Fourth Labour Government – the Lange-Douglas one – we pay little attention to the subsequent Fifth Labour Government. Yet the Clark-Cullen one is greatly shaping the current Labour Opposition and the current National Government. It will,…
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WEA Conference, 14 May, 2016, Wellington. The initial invitation suggested I talk about the future economy and its relevance to adult education. I explained that the best advice I ever came across is ‘don’t make predictions, especially about the future’. You get a sense of the difficulties if you go back thirty years ago, say,…
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Are we entering a long period of secular stagnation in which interest rates are low? We cannot foresee all the implications. This has not been an easy column to write, and it may not be an easy one to read. Part of the problem is that there is no agreement within the economics profession as…
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The more one is certain about the state of an economy, the more one is likely to be wrong; the more one is certain about the state of an economy, the greater the media coverage. No wonder the public is confused. I shan’t add to the confusion. In quick summary, the New Zealand’s economic growth…
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How Much of New Zealand Has to Be Owned and Controlled by Foreigners? This year is the fortieth anniversary of the founding of CAFCA – the Campaign Against Foreign Control of Aotearoa – a Christchurch-based, but national, activist organisation. It ‘promotes the concept of an independent Aotearoa based on policies of economic, military and political…
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