A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, except that it showed weakening…
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I was asked by a Spanish journalist the following two questions (particular with attention to a historical perspective): How likely do you see (if at all) a transition from an economy based on primary products towards an economy where digital services exports might play an important part? I would also like to ask about the…
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Thursday 24 November The Commission’s report on the seminar is here. It includes the my overheads which accompanied the presentation. Introduction I have been commissioned to prepare a report for the New Zealand Productivity Commission’s inquiry into economic resilience. The purpose of the report is threefold: 1. to describe how New Zealand has attempted to…
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Speech for launch at Parliament of Heke Tangata, Māori in Markets and Cities on Tuesday 15 May 2018. The event is sponsored by Te Whānau o Waipareira, the National Urban Māori Authority and Oratia Media at the invitation of the Hon. Willie Jackson, Associate Minister for Māori Development. Kia Ora Koutou Katoa. I begin by…
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The growth of farm output may be slowing. Specialty cheeses show an alternative strategy of further post-farmgate processing. Land for farming ran out in the 1950s. Farm production intensified. We shifted from more dollars of farm output by using more land to getting more dollars per unit of land. Among the challenges we had was…
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Answering that question proves to be challenging. This preliminary assessment suggests the economic benefits to incumbent New Zealanders may not be great. During the Vogel boom, say between 1871 and 1881, the population of New Zealand doubled, as did real GDP (as best as we can measure). That means per capita GDP was much the…
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The report of the Productivity Commission on the Tertiary Education Sector “New Models of Tertiary Education” is complacent. The report observes that in the decade from 2001 to 2011, the ratio of non-academic and academic staff in the public tertiary educational system rose from about equal to six non-academics to five academics. In fact the number…
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A recent government report projects huge increases in employment but at least 72 percent of those jobs are to go to immigrants. I was a bit startled by a report recently released by the Ministry of Business Industry and Employment which forecast an extra 480,000 jobs over the next ten years. Those with a memory will recall…
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A new book leads to ponderings on our technology strategy. Technology is an ambiguous notion. Its most common use in economics arises in the following way. The laws of thermodynamics mean that there exist production functions which relate inputs to outputs. The most familiar ones have a single output generated by inputs of labour and…
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The alienated Angries who supported Brexit and Trump are not going to go away. If any question why we died, Tell them, because our fathers lied. Arch-imperialist Rudyard Kipling’s bitter couplet, written shortly after the death of his son at Loos in September 1915, is an alternative view…
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Paper to the Fabian Society, 12 October, 2016 While we continue to chew over the carcass of the Fourth Labour Government – the Lange-Douglas one – we pay little attention to the subsequent Fifth Labour Government. Yet the Clark-Cullen one is greatly shaping the current Labour Opposition and the current National Government. It will,…
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WEA Conference, 14 May, 2016, Wellington. The initial invitation suggested I talk about the future economy and its relevance to adult education. I explained that the best advice I ever came across is ‘don’t make predictions, especially about the future’. You get a sense of the difficulties if you go back thirty years ago, say,…
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Are we entering a long period of secular stagnation in which interest rates are low? We cannot foresee all the implications. This has not been an easy column to write, and it may not be an easy one to read. Part of the problem is that there is no agreement within the economics profession as…
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The more one is certain about the state of an economy, the more one is likely to be wrong; the more one is certain about the state of an economy, the greater the media coverage. No wonder the public is confused. I shan’t add to the confusion. In quick summary, the New Zealand’s economic growth…
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How Much of New Zealand Has to Be Owned and Controlled by Foreigners? This year is the fortieth anniversary of the founding of CAFCA – the Campaign Against Foreign Control of Aotearoa – a Christchurch-based, but national, activist organisation. It ‘promotes the concept of an independent Aotearoa based on policies of economic, military and political…
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The OECD says yes; how do we respond? Pundit: 15 December, 2014. Keywords: Distributional Economics; Growth & Innovation; A recently released OECD report concludes that economic inequality hurts economic growth, and has particularly done so for New Zealand. Some of our responses were plain bizarre. Either the non-economic commentators had not understood the issue or…
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How New Zealand businesses succeed internationally. Pundit: 30 November, 2014. Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Literature and Culture; One of life’s pleasure is sitting with a child on one’s lap reading a book to them: attractive – sometimes mysterious – illustrations, humorous – even mischievous – plots, rhythmic sentences and just enough eccentric…
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We should focus more on introducing and adapting the world’s innovations using a skilled workforce. Pundit: 17 November, 2014 Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Labour Studies; Our so called ‘innovation policy’, which is at the heart of the government’s growth strategy – insofar as it has one – seems to be fundamentally flawed….
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Published in Stuff, 2 September, 2014. Keywords: Growth & Innovation; In the two years after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 and Poland (among others) detached itself from the Russian Empire, the Polish economy contracted by about a sixth. They call it ‘shock therapy’ but the policies which were pursued – privatisation, market…
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In the economic contest between communist China. and democratic India what matters is people. Listener: 9 August, 2014 Keywords: Growth & Innovation; Political Economy & History; The debate in the 1950s was whether the Chinese economy would do better than the Indian one. Both countries had become independent in the late 1940s,…
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