Author Archives: Brian Easton

Twenty to Ten: the Emptiness Of the Latest Economic Slogan.

This entry was posted in Growth & Innovation, Listener on 7th July 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 7 July, 2001.

Keywords Growth & Innovation

Chatham House rules applied, so I can only tell you there was considerable derision in a meeting of top economists when the slogan of New Zealand aiming to be tenth in the OECD was mentioned. Many such slogans float around our public debate, driven by dogma and lobbying interests. But this one has a quantifiable meaning so it can be assessed. The point of the following is not to overwhelm you with statistics – ignore them if you like – but to try to persuade you that economics can be about analysis rather than meaningless ideological slogans.

The Budget and the Production Process

This entry was posted in Listener, Macroeconomics & Money on 23rd June 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 23 June 2001.

Keywords Macroeconomics & Money

Most of the public comment on the government’s May budget was on the lack of growth of social spending. This overlooked that in a typical year the government has a little less than a billion dollars extra to spend from economic growth, after allowing for price and population increases. After some has been spent on really urgent items (like increasing bio-security) and necessary repairs to failed past policies (the cervical smear program) there is perhaps $750m left. That total is less, say, than the spending that advocates for Education or Heath or Social Welfare are each demanding for their sectors alone. Inevitably many (quite reasonable) demands are not met. Their advocates are irate, but rarely suggest cutting back on other government expenditures or raising taxes. Last year was unusual because the incoming government raised income taxes and so had more than normal to spend. This year (and in most years) it did not, so there is not the same expansion on government spending.

Writing the Nationbuilders

This entry was posted in Political Economy & History on 13th June 2001 by Brian Easton.

Presentation to the National Library Society: 13 June, 2001.

Keywords Political Economy & History

I thought it might be interesting to describe how The Nationbuilders came to be written. It is a useful exercise because books are linear and readers – beginning at the beginning and reading through to the end – may think that is the way each is written. Some books are, but many are not – including this one. Let me tell you how it was.

A Surplus Of Imitation

This entry was posted in History of Ideas, Methodology, Philosophy, Listener, Macroeconomics & Money on 9th June 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 9 June 2001

Keywords History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money

Every country has its own deeply held and specific cultures, arising from the particularities of its history and geography. Economics is prone to overlook this proposition because it aims to provide a ‘scientific’ theory of economic behaviour which is culture independent. A nice example of the resulting difficulties will be found in US economist Todd Buchholz’s New Ideas from Dead Economists. One chapter is devoted to ‘The Public Choice School: Politics as Business’, centred on the work of Nobel economic prize-winner James Buchanan, who like Buchholz lives in the Washington conurbation near the centre of the US government. The theory was very influential in New Zealand’s public sector reforms from the late 1980s.

Pain and Health Economics

This entry was posted in Health on 8th June 2001 by Brian Easton.

Paper to the 2001 Conference of the New Zealand Pain Society, June 8, 2001, published in New Zealand Pain Society Journal, Issue 3, September 2001, p.13-16.

Keywords: Health;

The initial concern when health economics first began as a part of the economics discipline – about 40 years ago – was ‘productive efficiency’, the extent to which the costs of any particular treatment could be reduced, thus focussing on the relative merits of different treatments of the same medical condition. However economists soon faced the necessity to compare the resource consequences of different medical conditions – ‘allocative efficiency’. The problem arises because ‘health’ is not a simply defined concept with a single index of performance – unlike material production which is measured by GDP – so comparisons between health outcomes are deeply problematic. (There is no policy problem here if health care is delivered entirely by the market mechanism of private payment, for the market implicitly resolves the difficulty by the sick’s payments on the basis of their perception and their ability to pay. But there is no country in the world where this applies.) Any comparison of the health status of two persons also involves deep philosophical issues, which practical economists may avoid, but which still lurk under their pragmatic solutions.

Locked Out: Of Free Press and Free Economics

This entry was posted in Political Economy & History on 26th May 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 26 May 2001

Keywords Political Economy & History

In front of me as I write this, is a 1990 circular to journalists by a media chief, who reports being approached by a public relations consultant complaining that too much space was being given to opponents of rogernomics (the euphemism is ‘continue to use the same small group of commentators’), and suggesting that other economists should be used. Attached was the consultant’s suggestions. The circular does not mention which interests the lobbyist represented, nor that a goodly number of those proposed were employees or advisors to the consultant’s clients.

Estimating the Economic Costs Of Alcohol Misuse:

This entry was posted in Health on 15th May 2001 by Brian Easton.

Why We Should Do it Even Though We Shouldn’t Pay Too Much Attention to the Bottom-line Results

Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Kettil Bruun Society for Social and Epidemiological Research on Alcohol, Toronto, May 2001 by ERIC SINGLE and BRIAN EASTON.[1]

Keywords: Health Economics

Abstract

A coalition of provincial, national and international addictions agencies has sponsored a series of international symposia leading to the developing of international guidelines for estimating the costs of substance abuse. These guidelines have now been utilized in national studies in four continents, with more consistent and comparable results than in previous studies. Although the bottom-line results have been utilized to argue for alcohol issues having a higher place on the public policy agenda, the real value in such studies lies in the detailed results regarding mortality and morbidity attributable to alcohol, the relative contribution of acute vs. chronic conditions to overall problem levels, and the role of alcohol in adverse social consequences such as crime and economic productivity. Recent updated estimates are presented regarding the attributable proportion of various causes of disease and death due to alcohol misuse in Canada. There are a variety of factors which undermine the robustness of the findings, including lack of data, laying of assumptions and changes in the epidemiological knowledge base. It is argued that economic cost estimates should nonetheless be conducted and continually refined, as the detailed findings are of great utility to the design and targeting of prevention programming and policy.

A Little More Than Kin: Petty Politics and External Threats

This entry was posted in Listener, Literature and Culture on 12th May 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 12 May, 2001.

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money

Richard’s Brattigan’s four hour film of Hamlet included bits of the plot which are often omitted in the cut version of the play. I was particularly struck how the invasion of Denmark by Prince Fortibras of Norway, suggests that the events at Court at Elsinor were but petty politicking. I had similar feelings while reading the New Zealand media pages on the internet while I was overseas. The nation’s main concerns seemed to be the activities of various members of parliament and their spouses. Now, just as there is a problem if one suspects one’s stepfather has bumped off one’s father and taken over his job, it is important we have honest and competent politicians. But perhaps the economic storms outside the country deserved a little more attention.

Economy Of Substance: What We Can and Can’t Measure.

This entry was posted in Health, Listener on 28th April 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 28 April, 2001.

Keywords: Health.

Some social sciences – demography, economics, geography and psychology – started off well because they had could measure the concepts they were dealing with. Others – anthropology, politics, sociology – have never been as successful. But that something cannot be measured does not mean it is unimportant. We cannot quantify culture and related behaviour and institutions. Yet they seem to be a key elements in economic performance. Contrariwise, well-constructed measures of economic performance, such as per capita GDP, may not be good indicators of our social objectives.

Two Economic Lieutenants

This entry was posted in Macroeconomics & Money, Political Economy & History on 27th April 2001 by Brian Easton.

Revised paper for The Stout Centre Research Centre conference on ‘Holyoake’s Lieutenants: 1960-1972′, 27-28 April, 2001. Parliament Buildings, published in Holyoake’s Lieutenants ed M. Clarke (Dunmore Press 2003)

Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Political Economy & History;

The term of the second National Government, from 1960 to 1972, can be split into almost exactly equal economic phases, changing at the end of 1966, when almost coincidentally the Minister of Finance also changed. The second from March 1967, was Rob Muldoon, well enough known and important enough to have a conference of his own in due course. From December 1960 to February 1967 the finance and economics lieutenant had been Harry Lake, an almost shadowy figure in the politically histories of New Zealand.

Official Channels

This entry was posted in Governance, Listener, Regulation & Taxation on 14th April 2001 by Brian Easton.

Broadcasting will never be just another business, whoever’s in charge.

Listener 14 April, 2001.

Keywords Governance; Taxation & Regulation.

I leave readers to recall nostalgically events from the pictures and anecdotes of Pat Day’s Voice and Vision: A History of Broadcasting (and to add the story of Aunt Daisy and the chimp). This column is about the policy process which underpins it all. There was a minister of broadcasting, and he (they were all hes) and the cabinet made decisions which affected the broadcasting system, what we heard and saw, and our nation’s culture. But there was no ministry of broadcasting, which meant that each minister was faced by a series of conflicting interest groups, which had to be sorted out without any independent advice.

Bursting Out: Don’t Panic – the US Slump Might Be a Good Thing in the Long

This entry was posted in Business & Finance, Listener, Macroeconomics & Money on 31st March 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 31 March, 2001.

Keywords Business & Finance; Macroeconomics & Money

As I write, there is vigorous debate about the current US economy downturn. In the jargon the question is whether it will be a V, U or L – the second half of each letter indicating a quick rebound a slow rebound, or a drawn out depression. It is noticeable that informed opinion is moving towards the more pessimistic end of the possibilities, although most commentators currently reckon on the U rather than the L.

There Is a Jungle out There

This entry was posted in Business & Finance, Listener on 17th March 2001 by Brian Easton.

The Stock Exchange is where small fry get eaten by lions

Listener 17 March, 2001.

Keywords Business & Finance

There is no necessity for a stock exchange. In the early days, people traded shares by personal contact. But shares could not be readily bought or sold, and investors could not readily liquidate their investments. The stock exchange created a common knowledge of prices and availability. It became easier for corporations to raise risk capital, because investors were more willing to put their money in, knowing it was easier to get it out. Businesses could raise equity for a new venture or major extension. Banks provide the additional funds at a lower cost, because the shareholders took the risk.

Every Vote Counts: a Census for Posterity

This entry was posted in Listener, Statistics on 3rd March 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 3 March, 2001

Keywords Statistics

Brian Pink, the Government Statistician, says the population census to be taken next Tuesday (March 6) ‘is a celebration of the democratic process’. It is a sort of a vote, with everyone in the country – not just adults – required to be included on a census form. Unlike an election which involves just a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote for some political party, a census involves a wide range of questions, each chosen for some practical social purpose. (They have to be, because there are always more questions than can be fitted on the form.) So you will be contributing a list of important social attributes, putting in a vote for your gender group, your age group where you were born, your ethnicity ….

The G Word: the Benefit Of International Economic Intercourse

This entry was posted in Globalisation & Trade, Listener on 17th February 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 17 February, 2001.

Keywords Globalisation & Trade;

The US-led world economic boom of the 1990s may be ending. The economy in 2001 is likely to be rocky in the US, stagnant in Japan, and the rest of the world could suffer with them. That will generate a loss of confidence, not only in the state of the economy, but in some of the euphoric theories that have been dredged up to justify the over-optimism. Dont panic: monetary-based economies fluctuate – always have, always will. But the long term trends – such as globalisation – will grind remorselessly on, and we still need to think about them rigorously.

Measuring Inflation

This entry was posted in Listener, Macroeconomics & Money on 20th January 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 20 January 2001.

Keywords: Statistics;

Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) releases its December quarter 2000 estimate of the Consumers Price Index (CPI) this week. The increase is expected to be a high and, if it is a dull news day, there will be much angst. In fact we have known for some time that consumer prices are increasing more quickly than usual, mainly because the fall in the New Zealand exchange rate will push up the domestic prices of imports which flow on into consumer prices. There is the puzzle of how quickly they will flow through, and the degree to which the New Zealand sellers can and will absorb the import price hikes. There is also an argument about whether the exchange rate will stay down. Everyone expects some recovery – providing the world financial markets remain stable – but some of the predicted New Zealand exchange rate levels, seem fantastical. They would take the pressure of domestic inflation, but the export sector would suffer grievously again.

Polish Shipyards: Why the Poles Have Done Better Than Us over the Last Decade.

This entry was posted in Globalisation & Trade, Listener on 6th January 2001 by Brian Easton.

Listener 6 January 2001

Keywords: Globalisation & Trade;

I like Warsaw. The young people swing along the street with all the insouciance of Parisians. But the old folk bear their past. One could easily have been ruled by the Russians, the Germans, the interwar Republic of Poland, the Soviet Union, and the communist regime of Poland, without hardly moving residence. And now as age (and some brutal winds from the Steppes) close on them, they are once more in a democratic regime.

The Ultimate Greeting: when Homo Economus Meets Homo Sapiens.

This entry was posted in History of Ideas, Methodology, Philosophy, Listener on 23rd December 2000 by Brian Easton.

Listener 23 December, 2000.

Keywords History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy

Take two people, A and B, who do not know one another. Give person A $100. A has to offer to B a share of the $100, say $x. If B accepts the offer, then each keeps their share (that is, B keeps $x and A keeps $100-$x). If B rejects the offer then neither gets any of the money. That is the ‘ultimatum game’.