Free trade deals can be complicated; so is their analysis. We must celebrate the achievement of a Free Trade Agreement with India, but only the uninformed attribute its success solely to the current Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon, and to Todd McClay, the trade minister. The negotiations took a couple of decades involving many more politicians….
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New Zealand is a small, isolated nation and needs to design itself accordingly. We should avoid uncritically imitating larger nations. Among the news websites I read is a British daily which once a week interviews a local writer on the books they grew up reading and which influenced them. That’s fifty-odd a year; most interviews…
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This column is a response to the complaint that we have poor economic performance because we have summer holidays. It praises them. Summertime, and the living is easy. We used to take our kids to Coes Ford on the Selwyn River near Christchurch for mucking around in the water. Great memories. Apparently, you can’t nowadays….
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The government is still borrowing for consumption. I do not think anyone understands the politics of the spat between Ruth Richardson, who chairs the Taxpayers Union, and Nicola Willis – including those two. The underlying economic issue is analytically clearer. The technical term for it is ‘fiscal consolidation’. It is easiest to understand it by…
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Journal of New Zealand Studies; NS40 (2025): Critics of the restructuring of the New Zealand economy in the 1984 to 1993 period have suffered from there being no good defence of the changes that were made. There are memoirs by various actors and the odd academic article, but they do not address the two elephants…
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How we connect economically with the world is critical. The British Labour Government is struggling. Partly it is because they were badly prepared in opposition; the Conservative Government was making such a charlie of itself that Labour expected that it would do better and gave little thought as to how it might. But while it…
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The Minister of Finance says it is but, parochialism aside, are we doing anything to ensure it really is? One of the necessary skills of a politician is to hold on to at least two contradictory positions at once. * Consider how, following the report of 72,000 New Zealanders ‘permanently’ leaving the country in the…
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The tensions between different approaches to the economy are surfacing as the election nears. As we head towards next year’s election, the tensions between the coalition partners are becoming increasingly evident. There are always these tensions, even before MMP when there were but two significant parties, but they were hidden within the caucuses. For instance,…
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Pragmatic analysis says maybe we should, but we should also consider nationalisation. We should certainly consider better regulation. An earlier column argued that we should make the government’s net worth – the value of its assets less its liabilities – more prominent in fiscal policy. Net worth is also fundamental when we are discussing whether…
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Presentation to Macrogroup Seminar, Friday 21 November, 2025; there is a PowerPoint that goes with this presentation. Available on request. Social Investment Analysis is another example of project evaluation where economists use Cost-Benefit Analysis. By the 1960s New Zealand was using CBA in the evaluation of irrigation and transport projects when, for various reasons, market…
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The pressure to globalise is consolidating towards a global world in which the US is a marginal player. There is a trope (or should I say ‘wishful hope’) by some that globalisation is coming to an end. While it may no longer moving towards a comprehensive integration, there are sites where it continues to expand….
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We should follow the Golden Rule of Fiscal Management and not borrow for consumption in the medium run. Asymmetry is a crucial, but often ignored, feature of credit transactions. You would normally be surprised if a shopkeeper said they would sell you 1kg of apples but not 2kg, even if you offered to pay a…
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Presentation to Wellington Macrogroup Seminar on Debt policy. 7 November 2025; there is a PowerPoint that goes with this presentation. Available on request. This paper argues that we should focus fiscal policy on net worth more than we do. The current obsession with debt ignores the difference between borrowing for investment purposes and borrowing for…
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Queen Elizabeth II famously asked about the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, ‘Why did no one see it coming?’ In fact, many economists (including yours truly) had pointed out that the financial system probably would crash. But we failed to predict what would precipitate the collapse, how severe it would be and when it would happen….
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What have the 2025 Nobel awards in economics to say to us? One of the economic puzzles of human existence is that for most of it, going back to its beginnings, the material standard of living did not change much. Then, about 200 years ago, it began increasing; in some places more than others but…
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Our current fiscal settings promise that we will eventually face a public debt explosion. A major cause would arise from the aging population. Is there anything we can do? It has long been known that the ageing population would create future fiscal pressure. It was quantified in the first (2006) Treasury long-term fiscal projection and…
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It even happens in New Zealand. Local autonomy suffers. While Donald Trump may be democracy’s greatest political bully, he is not alone. It happens in New Zealand, not only in the offices of politicians and whips dealing with caucus. Cabinet ministers practise it in public, not least towards local government. L ocal governments are legally…
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What the latest Statistics New Zealand GDP figures might be telling us. Statistics New Zealand’s publication of GDP for the June Quarter got a lot of media coverage, some of which bordered on the hysterical. To say the figures demonstrated the country was ‘bankrupt’ is a nonsense. Bankruptcy is about debt. Not a single one…
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Big Corporations Are Not What We Think They Are John Kay has been widely described as ‘one of the greatest economists of our time’. He is well grounded in economic theory and has taught it. He is rich with practical experience, both as a consultant and a corporate director, which he melds shrewdly with the…
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Do we need bigger multipurpose government mega-departments? Restructuring seems to be the fashionable management practice whenever faced with a challenge. (Eminent health economist Alan Maynard’s caaled it ‘redisorganising’ citing Petronius Arbiter in Satyricon: ‘we tend to meet any new situation by reorganising, and what a wonderful method it can be for creating the illusion of…
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