1.                  Urbanisation
2.                  Change in the age structure, of both a rising proportion and significance of the elderly and of the new age group of teenagers/young adults.
3.                  Change in the role of women and consequent shift in gender balance
4.                  Rise in the acceptance of cultural diversity
 

Looking forward (up to 50 years)
 

Likely to see some intensification of these trends.
 

Ageing
We have a sort of aristocracy – a rentier class – of older people who live on the production of others via their investments, pensions and New Zealand Superannuation. The effective age of retirement from the work force will rise. He predicts the age of eligibility (for NZS) will slowly rise starting around 2010. The alternative of cutting the level of NZS seems politically unlikely. He discussed briefly the case for a lower retirement age for those with shorter life expectations, but argued that a universal entitlement not differentiated by gender or race was the only practical and fair option.
 

Global engagement and migration
This is likely to intensify with more people moving overseas.
            We tend to select migrants on skill. In future we may also need more less skilled workers – eg for care of elderly. Many may come from the Pacific, which provides cultural challenges and opportunities here, but also may leave major problems for those left in these small countries.
            With higher migration there will be consequences for how we view ourselves. Already 37.5% of Aucklanders were foreign born in 2001. We could look to Canada for models as they have found ways to get people to integrate – e.g. welcoming groups for new arrivals, major ethnic day ceremonies.
            There are implications for benefit eligibility. Residency requirement for NZS was once 20 years, now 8 of the last 10 years. The residential rules for entitlements may get stricter. There was a similar issue for health care. Traditionally residency has been the basis for entitlement to hospital services but how do we deal with the flux of people crossing the border, temporarily or illegally, as well as with recently arrived permanent residents.
            One issue is the impact of migration on political ideologies. Some Asian groups seem less committed to the welfare state, perhaps as a reflection their tradition of strong family-based welfare. However, it may be that as Asia modernises and its people relocates that tradition will breakdown (as it did for Europeans in the nineteenth century).
 

Economy
The loss of job security – the job for life – which became widespread in the 1980s will continue. That means more people will go through periods of unemployment. It also raises issues for industrial relations, with less employer-employee loyalty, the loss experience to the firm, and a lower incentive for firms to train workers (offset in the last case by increasing demands for skills as production processes becomes more sophisticated).
            Hourly productivity of NZ workers is low compared to other OECD countries (if we can trust the international data). That means New Zealanders work long hours. It is possible some future increases in productivity will be taken as more leisure.
            With broadband, more jobs could be done in rural areas – eg: the Hokianga. At the same time, more jobs involve global sourcing and collaboration – eg NZ Mercedes keeps spare parts in Stuttgart. (He observes that the range of the new planes to be introduced in about 2010 puts even Europe about 16 hours flying time away. Allow for the day-night switch that is about four hours – sort of as close as Australia today.) More services for NZ may be sourced from overseas, but there will also be opportunities for New Zealanders to supply services overseas by broadband too.
            Air transport is now very important – Auckland International  Airport is New Zealand’s second largest external port. To be provocative, he suggests broadband through Warkworth may become the biggest exporter and importer by the end of the century.
            There is an issue of the long run relationship between wage levels and benefit levels. Treasury’s Long Term Fiscal Projection, which uses current policies, has the real level of benefits in 2050 about the same as they were a hundred years earlier, while real wages are projected to quadruple. HE was uneasy about the social implications of this.
 

Urbanisation
It is likely that cities will become denser, because of higher transport costs. On current trends oil will be replaced by bio-fuels (e.g. from coppiced Swiss Willow grown around Taupo) at a price similar to current oil prices So we should be planning on the basis of $2 a litre for petrol. That would mean more urban transport. He recalled that while the cost/benefit studies do not currently stack up, it seemed sensible to develop urban transport infrastructures for the long term..
 

Wild cards
 

Given a list of wild cards events, he suggested that volcanic eruptions be added – both Rangitoto and Taupo had blown in the last 2000 years in a manner which would have been devastating for the current population. He recalled that it is said that the probability of a major volcano in Auckland is about the same as a major earthquake in Wellington.
            He noted the wildcard list did not include economic events. He could think off some which would be as structural and even more long lasting.
 

Focus for government over next 10-15 years
 

Health care
Expenditure is likely to rise to near 15% of GDP because of demands and new technologies and treatment (and population aging). Even so, rationing issues are likely to intensify. New Zealand is already has proportionally high private expenditure on health compared to the OECD average. A shift towards  a US in private health care is not a more viable option. Even so, there is – and will continue to be – debate about the relative responsibilities of the state and the individual for health care. The line is likely to be unstable and change with technological developments.
 

Living standards
There is an economic theory, which he finds plausible, that predicts the living standards of the affluent will stagnate or even fall over the next century as manufacturing becomes ‘commodified’, produced in low wage countries. (He adds hastily, in case this is read by professional economists, the model has orthodox assumptions, and the effect is the consequence of a fall in manufacturing terms of trade, something which Paul Samuelson has written on.)
 

Role of social agencies
He expects social agencies to have an increasingly important role, in part because broad economic measures (such as employment creation and income support) cannot meet the particular needs of everyone. He noted deinstitutionalisation as an example of how we are giving more attention to people’s individual needs and that requires social agencies for delivery.
            Although outside his specific competencies, he observed that rates of depression (and possibly other mental health conditions) have risen over his lifetime, and he regretted we did not know more about what was happening.
 

Other issues
Economic Transformation Agenda
He thought the way the economy would evolve would pressure social coherence, and suggested the objective of sustainability should include a sustainable social environment. The likely increase in the dispersion of market incomes had the potential to increased social incoherence.
            One problem is that the government’s three goals (economic transformation, families and national identity) may be siloed, and there is no strong mechanism to pull them together. It may be a bit early to expect one, but as yet there is no discussion of social implications of the proposed Economic Transformation.
 

Quality of Analysis
He talked about the intellectual limits of social scientists in New Zealand. Too many are hedgehogs, concerned with only one thing, lacking a broad perspective – a context in which that thing may be placed. He thought there were not enough acceptance of the role of foxes in the profession, who are concerned with many things. (‘The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.’ Archilochus)
            Because he was working on the topics at the moment, he talked about the shortcomings of the ESLI and NZDep measures, neither of which were validated. His point was that we tend to accept such things without subjecting them to the robust critiquing which should be an integral part of the work of social scientists.
            One of his worries was that at the top of the scale ESLI which underplays the importance of choice. He argued that one of the central features of the last fifty years was how affluence had opened up choice for many. He thought Amartya Sen’s approach to welfare would have much more relevance for the next fifty years than the traditional utilitarian one.
            Another area he is working on was the future of Auckland (which may be the future of all New Zealand large urban centres) and lamented about the lack of data – even quality economic data.
            He thought there was no simple solution to the improving the quality of social science in New Zealand, but thought some gains would come if more academic institutions to set themselves standards of excellence rather than political correctness and what the conventional wisdom wanted to hear. He thought it sad that commissioners of research were not more discerning about whom they employ in what jobs and what standards they demanded. .
 

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