Category Archives: Macroeconomics & Money

The Austerian Economists’ Error

The Austerian Economists’ Error In the battle of opinions for managing sluggish economies, rhetoric often misrepresents the research.   Listener: 13 June, 2013   Keywords: History of Ideas, Methodology & Philosophy; Macroeconomics & Money;   The right response to high unemployment and lethargic economic activity is to cut back government spending, according to “Austerians”, whose…
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Writings on Earthquakes (Index)

This index, first compiled in January 2013 and subsequently updated, is a list of article on the website which have a substantial content about earthquakes and other natural calamities. They were not a focus until the Canterbury Earthquakes, which I began writing about as “Listener” columns to illustrate general issues. However, they are acquiring a…
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The Global Financial Crisis iii (Index)

Writings on the Long Recession from October 2010 to December 2012 This is the third entry which summarises the Global Financial Crisis and its aftermath. The first index (www.eastonbh.ac.nz/?p=1351) covered the period from August 2007 to March 2009 The trigger was in the US sub-prime market crisis in August 2007, about a year before the…
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Net National Savings and the Real Exchange Rate

This unpublished paper contains figures in its full version. Unfortunately I can’t work out how to include them. I’ll send the figures if requested. Summary This paper derives a locus between the real exchange rate and net national savings (gross savings less gross investment). Its essence is that a rise in net savings reduces the…
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The Relationship Between the Net National Savings and the Real Exchange Rate

A note prepared in October 2012   Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money;   Summary   This paper derives a locus between the real exchange rate and net national savings (gross savings less gross investment). Its essence is that a rise in net savings reduces the real exchange rate. Conversely a rise in dis-savings increases the real…
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The ‘Critical Threshold’ for Fiscal Projections and Policy

A Note prepared in October 2012.   Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; Regulation & Taxation;   Introduction   I have argued there is a critical threshold where if the fiscal deficit exceeds it public debt grows unsustainability faster than the ability of the economy to service it (usually measured by GDP). This note quantifies the threshold…
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Another Financial Crisis on the Rise?

Listener: 29 September, 2012. The world economy remains fragile. There may be another major economic crisis, but if not, things will continue to drift – or possibly sink. Here are some of the major known unknowns facing the world – and us. It’s hard to say much about the United States economy. The country is…
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A Framework for an Economic Strategy

A note prepared for discussion in September 2012.   Keywords: Business & Finance;  Distributional Economics; Globalisation & Trade; Growth & Innovation; Macroeconomics & Money;   What is the Purpose of the Economy? * The purpose of the New Zealand economy is to maintain and increase the wellbeing of all  New Zealanders. It is neither the…
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Economic Uncertainty

St Andrew’s Study Trust lecture series: Living with Uncertainty; 4 September 2012 The notion of uncertainty – and risk, which as we shall see, is something else – is central to economics and the economies it describes. Of course there are external events which generate shocks like the Lisbon or Canterbury earthquakes. But today I…
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Chartering Through the Long Recession

Listener: 23 June, 2012 Keywords: Education; Macroeconomics & Money; Naomi Klein’s The Shock Doctrine opens with a description of the American neo-liberals using Cyclone Katrina’s devastation of New Orleans as a chance to replace the city’s public school system with charter schools. This is but one of the book’s examples of their seizing opportunities following…
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Government Budgets: the Ceremony and the Reality

Listener: 9 June, 2012. Keywords: Macroeconomics & Money; The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity Despite the media extravaganza that still surrounds them, government Budgets are no longer the major economic statement of the year. The Government now has so many opportunities at…
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Could Auckland Have a Greek Crisis?

Submitted to ‘New Zealand Herald’ but mot published. Keywords: Governance; Macroeconomics & Money; Could New Zealand have a financial crisis like the current Greek one? Anything is possible but the central government has a formidable series of institutional arrangements to reduce the probability of it happening together with prudently committed ministers of finance. History reminds…
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